Arthur Turrell
@arthurturrell.bsky.social
Economic data scientist and author. Currently @ No10, formerly ONS & Bank. Book on nuclear fusion, 'The Star Builders', out now with S&S/W&N. Views my own.
Website: www.aeturrell.com
Website: www.aeturrell.com
Hi Rachel, thanks for the feedback: I'll pass it all on & it's helpful to know that it's coming across like this. FWIW colleagues on the fellowship (excluding myself of course) are extremely talented & delivery-focused, & many have science backgrounds. Perhaps we need to do more to bring that out.
January 25, 2026 at 10:22 PM
Hi Rachel, thanks for the feedback: I'll pass it all on & it's helpful to know that it's coming across like this. FWIW colleagues on the fellowship (excluding myself of course) are extremely talented & delivery-focused, & many have science backgrounds. Perhaps we need to do more to bring that out.
There's a lot of news out there rn, probably so much that you're distracted from thinking about data analysis. As an antidote, why not try out Skimpy, a Python package for data analysis? It has 496 stars on GitHub: we just need a few more to hit 500. That could be you! ⭐️
github.com/aeturrell/sk...
github.com/aeturrell/sk...
GitHub - aeturrell/skimpy: skimpy is a light weight tool that provides summary statistics about variables in data frames within the console.
skimpy is a light weight tool that provides summary statistics about variables in data frames within the console. - aeturrell/skimpy
github.com
January 25, 2026 at 8:54 PM
There's a lot of news out there rn, probably so much that you're distracted from thinking about data analysis. As an antidote, why not try out Skimpy, a Python package for data analysis? It has 496 stars on GitHub: we just need a few more to hit 500. That could be you! ⭐️
github.com/aeturrell/sk...
github.com/aeturrell/sk...
Excited to be a part of the initiative to "Move Fast and Fix Things", announced in Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister's speech today. One measure is an expansion of the No10 Innovation Fellowship, for which we've launched a new website!
fellows.ai.gov.uk
Speech: www.gov.uk/government/s...
fellows.ai.gov.uk
Speech: www.gov.uk/government/s...
January 20, 2026 at 3:46 PM
Excited to be a part of the initiative to "Move Fast and Fix Things", announced in Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister's speech today. One measure is an expansion of the No10 Innovation Fellowship, for which we've launched a new website!
fellows.ai.gov.uk
Speech: www.gov.uk/government/s...
fellows.ai.gov.uk
Speech: www.gov.uk/government/s...
Inevitably, it has turned into an interview about Trump instead!
January 20, 2026 at 8:29 AM
Inevitably, it has turned into an interview about Trump instead!
Interested in what we've been up to at Downing Street? Tune in to Today on BBC Radio 4 at 08:10 this morning!
January 20, 2026 at 7:25 AM
Interested in what we've been up to at Downing Street? Tune in to Today on BBC Radio 4 at 08:10 this morning!
Doyne Farmer & Francois Lafond have done a lovely paper on falling costs of technology and how it matches a pattern; one of the authors of this could be a good shout
lims.ac.uk/documents/pa...
lims.ac.uk/documents/pa...
lims.ac.uk
January 12, 2026 at 10:17 AM
Doyne Farmer & Francois Lafond have done a lovely paper on falling costs of technology and how it matches a pattern; one of the authors of this could be a good shout
lims.ac.uk/documents/pa...
lims.ac.uk/documents/pa...
Reposted by Arthur Turrell
The cost of sequencing a human genome has fallen over 100,000 fold in nominal terms since 2001.
In a new visualization, I've added some of the key advances in sequencing during that timeline:
In a new visualization, I've added some of the key advances in sequencing during that timeline:
January 8, 2026 at 8:16 AM
The cost of sequencing a human genome has fallen over 100,000 fold in nominal terms since 2001.
In a new visualization, I've added some of the key advances in sequencing during that timeline:
In a new visualization, I've added some of the key advances in sequencing during that timeline:
Lovely finishing plug for @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social's book at #ASSA2026 from the panel on government statistics!
January 5, 2026 at 3:00 PM
Lovely finishing plug for @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social's book at #ASSA2026 from the panel on government statistics!
Hello #ASSA2026 attendees! Interested in better nowcasting? We have a top line-up of speakers on the latest and best ways to gauge the state of the economy in real-time at:
🎤 Next Gen Nowcasting: Signatures, Distributions, and Simplified Workflows
📍309
🕣 Sunday, 14:30 EST
#econsky
🎤 Next Gen Nowcasting: Signatures, Distributions, and Simplified Workflows
📍309
🕣 Sunday, 14:30 EST
#econsky
January 3, 2026 at 4:22 PM
Heading to #ASSA2026? Interested in gauging the state of the economy in real-time—even during crises? Then come to...
🎤 Next Gen Nowcasting: Signatures, Distributions, and Simplified Workflows
📍309
🕣 Sunday, 14:30 EST
eppro01.ativ.me/appinfo.php?... #ASSA2026
#econsky
🎤 Next Gen Nowcasting: Signatures, Distributions, and Simplified Workflows
📍309
🕣 Sunday, 14:30 EST
eppro01.ativ.me/appinfo.php?... #ASSA2026
#econsky
ASSA 2026
eppro01.ativ.me
January 2, 2026 at 8:33 AM
Heading to #ASSA2026? Interested in gauging the state of the economy in real-time—even during crises? Then come to...
🎤 Next Gen Nowcasting: Signatures, Distributions, and Simplified Workflows
📍309
🕣 Sunday, 14:30 EST
eppro01.ativ.me/appinfo.php?... #ASSA2026
#econsky
🎤 Next Gen Nowcasting: Signatures, Distributions, and Simplified Workflows
📍309
🕣 Sunday, 14:30 EST
eppro01.ativ.me/appinfo.php?... #ASSA2026
#econsky
If you're heading to Philadelphia for the ASSA, I'll be speaking about this work: we'd love to get your feedback.
December 18, 2025 at 10:59 AM
If you're heading to Philadelphia for the ASSA, I'll be speaking about this work: we'd love to get your feedback.
And this approach performs well for nowcasting UK unemployment, **even over rocky periods like the pandemic** when the numbers were subject to all kinds of shocks and uncertainties... eg a month after the end of the furlough scheme
December 18, 2025 at 10:59 AM
And this approach performs well for nowcasting UK unemployment, **even over rocky periods like the pandemic** when the numbers were subject to all kinds of shocks and uncertainties... eg a month after the end of the furlough scheme
Is it any good at nowcasting though? Yes! On the standard test, nowcasting US GDP, signatures (combined with DFM or PCA) are performant vs sensible benchmark models.
December 18, 2025 at 10:59 AM
Is it any good at nowcasting though? Yes! On the standard test, nowcasting US GDP, signatures (combined with DFM or PCA) are performant vs sensible benchmark models.
We show that signatures generalise linear Kalman filters... so you can retrieve the kind of behaviours/predictions you'd expect. But as well as interruptions, signatures can also incorporate non-linear transformations. They work in "noisy" situations!
December 18, 2025 at 10:59 AM
We show that signatures generalise linear Kalman filters... so you can retrieve the kind of behaviours/predictions you'd expect. But as well as interruptions, signatures can also incorporate non-linear transformations. They work in "noisy" situations!
The key insight in using signatures is that they are well-suited to interrupted paths, and so can comfortably deal with irregular and mixed frequency observations. If time series are temporarily unavailable, or published at a different time or frequency, signatures are cool with this 😎
December 18, 2025 at 10:59 AM
The key insight in using signatures is that they are well-suited to interrupted paths, and so can comfortably deal with irregular and mixed frequency observations. If time series are temporarily unavailable, or published at a different time or frequency, signatures are cool with this 😎
Now-warned is now-armed, to ruin a phrase: policymakers need to know what's happening. And that's *more* important during stressed times. Lots of nowcasts struggled through the pandemic. Signatures offer a more robust way of nowcasting. Signatures are functions of paths that capture geometric info
December 18, 2025 at 10:59 AM
Now-warned is now-armed, to ruin a phrase: policymakers need to know what's happening. And that's *more* important during stressed times. Lots of nowcasts struggled through the pandemic. Signatures offer a more robust way of nowcasting. Signatures are functions of paths that capture geometric info
New working paper: nowcasting using regression on signatures!
We introduce a new method of nowcasting that uses mathematical objects called signatures. Regression on signatures subsumes the linear Kalman filter & is more robust to disruptions in data series 😍
#econsky
arxiv.org/abs/2305.102...
We introduce a new method of nowcasting that uses mathematical objects called signatures. Regression on signatures subsumes the linear Kalman filter & is more robust to disruptions in data series 😍
#econsky
arxiv.org/abs/2305.102...
Nowcasting using regression on signatures
We introduce a new method of nowcasting using regression on path signatures. Path signatures capture the geometric properties of sequential data. Because signatures embed observations in continuous ti...
arxiv.org
December 18, 2025 at 10:59 AM
New working paper: nowcasting using regression on signatures!
We introduce a new method of nowcasting that uses mathematical objects called signatures. Regression on signatures subsumes the linear Kalman filter & is more robust to disruptions in data series 😍
#econsky
arxiv.org/abs/2305.102...
We introduce a new method of nowcasting that uses mathematical objects called signatures. Regression on signatures subsumes the linear Kalman filter & is more robust to disruptions in data series 😍
#econsky
arxiv.org/abs/2305.102...
Thanks Alex. Works if it's for data analysis. This is a shorter and more data sciencey version: aeturrell.github.io/python4DS/we...
Welcome — Python for Data Science
aeturrell.github.io
December 15, 2025 at 9:34 AM
Thanks Alex. Works if it's for data analysis. This is a shorter and more data sciencey version: aeturrell.github.io/python4DS/we...
"Mastery of technology must infuse everything we do,” she will say. “We must be as comfortable with lines of code as we are with human sources, as fluent in Python as we are in multiple languages.”
New head of MI6
#python
www.ft.com/content/5cbe...
New head of MI6
#python
www.ft.com/content/5cbe...
Russia is ‘exporting chaos’, new head of Britain’s spy agency MI6 warns
In her first public remarks since taking office, Blaise Metreweli will also say that UK support for Ukraine is ‘enduring’
www.ft.com
December 15, 2025 at 8:00 AM
"Mastery of technology must infuse everything we do,” she will say. “We must be as comfortable with lines of code as we are with human sources, as fluent in Python as we are in multiple languages.”
New head of MI6
#python
www.ft.com/content/5cbe...
New head of MI6
#python
www.ft.com/content/5cbe...
I see, I didn't realise you were actively trying to be rude. I personally really wasn't and I'm sorry for coming across that way.
November 28, 2025 at 7:44 PM
I see, I didn't realise you were actively trying to be rude. I personally really wasn't and I'm sorry for coming across that way.
You just sent me a video of someone mocking something so you must feel it's a valid way of making a point sometimes too? And I appreciate the way what you shared makes the point! NB I understood you were originally talking about any gen AI image, not just slop. Interesting re seniors.
November 28, 2025 at 7:33 PM
You just sent me a video of someone mocking something so you must feel it's a valid way of making a point sometimes too? And I appreciate the way what you shared makes the point! NB I understood you were originally talking about any gen AI image, not just slop. Interesting re seniors.
I'm not pretending, I get what you mean! I feel differently & used an exaggerated way to illustrate that but didn't intend to be rude. On broader pt, this is mostly junior researchers & I always think they need some slack. I'm sure my presentations as a junior could have been lot more professional!
November 28, 2025 at 7:04 PM
I'm not pretending, I get what you mean! I feel differently & used an exaggerated way to illustrate that but didn't intend to be rude. On broader pt, this is mostly junior researchers & I always think they need some slack. I'm sure my presentations as a junior could have been lot more professional!
They have been in the uncanny valley and I get that it can be distracting if they're obviously wrong. But it's just a tool and I think it will get better, & people will learn to use it better. Personally willing to give some slack to people experimenting with new tools, especially developing ones!
November 28, 2025 at 6:45 PM
They have been in the uncanny valley and I get that it can be distracting if they're obviously wrong. But it's just a tool and I think it will get better, & people will learn to use it better. Personally willing to give some slack to people experimenting with new tools, especially developing ones!