Brian Fremeau
@bcfremeau.bsky.social
College football possession efficiency, FEI ratings, and data visualization enthusiast. Post an interesting chart, I'm probably going to like it. Post a college football dataviz, hello new best friend.
https://www.bcftoys.com
https://www.bcftoys.com
Pinned
Brian Fremeau
@bcfremeau.bsky.social
· Jul 31
We’re back and (hopefully) better than ever. Let me know if anything on the relaunched site is wonky or anything, and let’s get the 2025 college football data season rolling: bcftoys.com
Sixteen teams have an 80th+ percentile average opponent-adjusted FEI game rating against FBS opponents through Week 13. bcftoys.com/2025-gr
10 teams had an 80th+ percentile average FEI game rating on selection day in 2024, and 8 of them made the field. 4 of the top 5 were CFP semifinalists.
10 teams had an 80th+ percentile average FEI game rating on selection day in 2024, and 8 of them made the field. 4 of the top 5 were CFP semifinalists.
November 25, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Sixteen teams have an 80th+ percentile average opponent-adjusted FEI game rating against FBS opponents through Week 13. bcftoys.com/2025-gr
10 teams had an 80th+ percentile average FEI game rating on selection day in 2024, and 8 of them made the field. 4 of the top 5 were CFP semifinalists.
10 teams had an 80th+ percentile average FEI game rating on selection day in 2024, and 8 of them made the field. 4 of the top 5 were CFP semifinalists.
Reposted by Brian Fremeau
FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 13 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 5% weight for two teams that have played only nine FBS opponents (Army & Navy), and **0% for 134 teams that have played ten or more**.
Preseason projections carry 5% weight for two teams that have played only nine FBS opponents (Army & Navy), and **0% for 134 teams that have played ten or more**.
November 24, 2025 at 11:49 PM
FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 13 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 5% weight for two teams that have played only nine FBS opponents (Army & Navy), and **0% for 134 teams that have played ten or more**.
Preseason projections carry 5% weight for two teams that have played only nine FBS opponents (Army & Navy), and **0% for 134 teams that have played ten or more**.
Looking forward to another round of spirited and informed college football debate this week.
I think good faith arguments can be made to put a number of very good teams in almost any order this year. And good faith arguments can also be made about what should be the most and least important criteria to sort them out too!
November 25, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Looking forward to another round of spirited and informed college football debate this week.
FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 13 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 5% weight for two teams that have played only nine FBS opponents (Army & Navy), and **0% for 134 teams that have played ten or more**.
Preseason projections carry 5% weight for two teams that have played only nine FBS opponents (Army & Navy), and **0% for 134 teams that have played ten or more**.
November 24, 2025 at 11:49 PM
FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 13 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 5% weight for two teams that have played only nine FBS opponents (Army & Navy), and **0% for 134 teams that have played ten or more**.
Preseason projections carry 5% weight for two teams that have played only nine FBS opponents (Army & Navy), and **0% for 134 teams that have played ten or more**.
Wins above/below what a top 5-10 FBS team would expect to have against the schedule faced through Week 12, per FEI:
+1.4 Indiana
+1.4 Texas A&M
+0.8 Ohio State
+0.7 Georgia
+0.5 Ole Miss
+0.5 BYU
+0.3 Oregon
+0.2 Texas Tech
+0.2 Alabama
-0.2 Oklahoma
+1.4 Indiana
+1.4 Texas A&M
+0.8 Ohio State
+0.7 Georgia
+0.5 Ole Miss
+0.5 BYU
+0.3 Oregon
+0.2 Texas Tech
+0.2 Alabama
-0.2 Oklahoma
November 21, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Wins above/below what a top 5-10 FBS team would expect to have against the schedule faced through Week 12, per FEI:
+1.4 Indiana
+1.4 Texas A&M
+0.8 Ohio State
+0.7 Georgia
+0.5 Ole Miss
+0.5 BYU
+0.3 Oregon
+0.2 Texas Tech
+0.2 Alabama
-0.2 Oklahoma
+1.4 Indiana
+1.4 Texas A&M
+0.8 Ohio State
+0.7 Georgia
+0.5 Ole Miss
+0.5 BYU
+0.3 Oregon
+0.2 Texas Tech
+0.2 Alabama
-0.2 Oklahoma
I'm pretty sure the CFP doesn't specifically use FEI data in its deliberations, but I've tracked the correlation of CFP rankings with my strength of record ratings since 2014. The correlations are stronger this year than they have been previously: bcftoys.com/2025-cfp
November 20, 2025 at 5:45 PM
I'm pretty sure the CFP doesn't specifically use FEI data in its deliberations, but I've tracked the correlation of CFP rankings with my strength of record ratings since 2014. The correlations are stronger this year than they have been previously: bcftoys.com/2025-cfp
Chipped in with a bit of data for this @ralphdrussoath.bsky.social
piece on the current and future state of FBS vs FCS games: www.nytimes.com/athletic/681...
piece on the current and future state of FBS vs FCS games: www.nytimes.com/athletic/681...
Will Power 4 college football teams continue to play FCS opponents? It’s complicated
This season, 61 of the 67 teams in the four power conferences are playing at least one game against an FCS team.
www.nytimes.com
November 19, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Chipped in with a bit of data for this @ralphdrussoath.bsky.social
piece on the current and future state of FBS vs FCS games: www.nytimes.com/athletic/681...
piece on the current and future state of FBS vs FCS games: www.nytimes.com/athletic/681...
CFP SOR metric "...rewards teams defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team [and] will provide minimal reward for defeating a lower-quality opponent while imposing a greater penalty for losing to such a team."
collegefootballplayoff.com/news/2025/8/...
collegefootballplayoff.com/news/2025/8/...
College Football Playoff Selection Committee Prepares for 2025-26 Season - College Football Playoff
The College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee met recently in preparation for the upcoming season. Following the first year of the 12-team Playoff, the
collegefootballplayoff.com
November 19, 2025 at 7:07 PM
CFP SOR metric "...rewards teams defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team [and] will provide minimal reward for defeating a lower-quality opponent while imposing a greater penalty for losing to such a team."
collegefootballplayoff.com/news/2025/8/...
collegefootballplayoff.com/news/2025/8/...
90th+ percentile FEI game ratings (opponent-adjusted possession efficiency) vs FBS opponents through Week 12:
7x - Ohio State
6x - Georgia, Indiana, Miami, Notre Dame, Utah
5x - Alabama, Oregon, Utah, Texas Tech
4x - Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Game ratings for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-gr
7x - Ohio State
6x - Georgia, Indiana, Miami, Notre Dame, Utah
5x - Alabama, Oregon, Utah, Texas Tech
4x - Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Game ratings for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-gr
November 18, 2025 at 1:45 PM
90th+ percentile FEI game ratings (opponent-adjusted possession efficiency) vs FBS opponents through Week 12:
7x - Ohio State
6x - Georgia, Indiana, Miami, Notre Dame, Utah
5x - Alabama, Oregon, Utah, Texas Tech
4x - Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Game ratings for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-gr
7x - Ohio State
6x - Georgia, Indiana, Miami, Notre Dame, Utah
5x - Alabama, Oregon, Utah, Texas Tech
4x - Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Game ratings for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-gr
FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 12 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 11% weight for 1 team that has played eight FBS opponents, 5% for 108 teams that have played nine, **0% for 27 teams that have played ten**.
Preseason projections carry 11% weight for 1 team that has played eight FBS opponents, 5% for 108 teams that have played nine, **0% for 27 teams that have played ten**.
November 18, 2025 at 12:26 PM
FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 12 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 11% weight for 1 team that has played eight FBS opponents, 5% for 108 teams that have played nine, **0% for 27 teams that have played ten**.
Preseason projections carry 11% weight for 1 team that has played eight FBS opponents, 5% for 108 teams that have played nine, **0% for 27 teams that have played ten**.
What's under the FEI hood? Game ratings.
November 18, 2025 at 12:48 AM
What's under the FEI hood? Game ratings.
FBS vs FBS Trends through Week 12...
52.5 points/game (fewest since 2009)
23.9 possessions/game (fewest on record)
2.20 points/possession (about the same as 2024)
52.5 points/game (fewest since 2009)
23.9 possessions/game (fewest on record)
2.20 points/possession (about the same as 2024)
November 17, 2025 at 11:52 PM
FBS vs FBS Trends through Week 12...
52.5 points/game (fewest since 2009)
23.9 possessions/game (fewest on record)
2.20 points/possession (about the same as 2024)
52.5 points/game (fewest since 2009)
23.9 possessions/game (fewest on record)
2.20 points/possession (about the same as 2024)
I think good faith arguments can be made to put a number of very good teams in almost any order this year. And good faith arguments can also be made about what should be the most and least important criteria to sort them out too!
November 17, 2025 at 5:01 PM
I think good faith arguments can be made to put a number of very good teams in almost any order this year. And good faith arguments can also be made about what should be the most and least important criteria to sort them out too!
Texas Tech's defense leads the nation in points per drive allowed (0.85) on non-garbage drives through Week 11. Only four teams since 2007 finished the year allowing fewer:
0.49 - 2011 Alabama
0.69 - 2021 Georgia
0.79 - 2008 USC
0.79 - 2009 Nebraska
bcftoys.com/2025-ppd
0.49 - 2011 Alabama
0.69 - 2021 Georgia
0.79 - 2008 USC
0.79 - 2009 Nebraska
bcftoys.com/2025-ppd
2025 Points Per Drive — BCF Toys
bcftoys.com
November 12, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Texas Tech's defense leads the nation in points per drive allowed (0.85) on non-garbage drives through Week 11. Only four teams since 2007 finished the year allowing fewer:
0.49 - 2011 Alabama
0.69 - 2021 Georgia
0.79 - 2008 USC
0.79 - 2009 Nebraska
bcftoys.com/2025-ppd
0.49 - 2011 Alabama
0.69 - 2021 Georgia
0.79 - 2008 USC
0.79 - 2009 Nebraska
bcftoys.com/2025-ppd
With the exception of end of game/half kneeldowns, every Ohio State offensive drive this season has gained yardage. The lowest end of season "busted drive" (drive that earns 0 or negative yards) rate I have on record is also Ohio State (1.6% in 2021). bcftoys.com/2025-ofei
2025 OFEI Ratings — BCF Toys
bcftoys.com
November 12, 2025 at 4:15 PM
With the exception of end of game/half kneeldowns, every Ohio State offensive drive this season has gained yardage. The lowest end of season "busted drive" (drive that earns 0 or negative yards) rate I have on record is also Ohio State (1.6% in 2021). bcftoys.com/2025-ofei
Piling up close losses, 3-6 (2-6 vs FBS) Penn State is still hanging around the F+ top-25. The best F+ rating for a below-.500 team at the end of the year was 2010 Georgia who finished 6-7 (5-7 vs FBS) and 18th overall.
bcftoys.com/2025-fplus
bcftoys.com/2025-fplus
2025 F+ Ratings — BCF Toys
bcftoys.com
November 11, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Piling up close losses, 3-6 (2-6 vs FBS) Penn State is still hanging around the F+ top-25. The best F+ rating for a below-.500 team at the end of the year was 2010 Georgia who finished 6-7 (5-7 vs FBS) and 18th overall.
bcftoys.com/2025-fplus
bcftoys.com/2025-fplus
FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 11 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 11% weight for teams that have played eight FBS opponents, 5% if they have played nine, **0% if they have played ten**.
Preseason projections carry 11% weight for teams that have played eight FBS opponents, 5% if they have played nine, **0% if they have played ten**.
November 11, 2025 at 1:30 PM
FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 11 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 11% weight for teams that have played eight FBS opponents, 5% if they have played nine, **0% if they have played ten**.
Preseason projections carry 11% weight for teams that have played eight FBS opponents, 5% if they have played nine, **0% if they have played ten**.
Reposted by Brian Fremeau
Does it seem like there are more close games this year? It's because there are!
43.3% of P4vsP4 games have been decided by 1 score, highest rate for P4/P5/BCS games in at least 20 years. Avg score margin is 14.4 ppg, lowest since 2009.
43.3% of P4vsP4 games have been decided by 1 score, highest rate for P4/P5/BCS games in at least 20 years. Avg score margin is 14.4 ppg, lowest since 2009.
November 10, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Does it seem like there are more close games this year? It's because there are!
43.3% of P4vsP4 games have been decided by 1 score, highest rate for P4/P5/BCS games in at least 20 years. Avg score margin is 14.4 ppg, lowest since 2009.
43.3% of P4vsP4 games have been decided by 1 score, highest rate for P4/P5/BCS games in at least 20 years. Avg score margin is 14.4 ppg, lowest since 2009.
TWELVE
There were 12 total possessions in Saturday's Army-Temple game, six for each team, fewer than in any FBS game since at least 2007. (Five games since 2007 had featured 13 total game possessions: bcftoys.com/possessions).
Game Possessions — BCF Toys
bcftoys.com
November 10, 2025 at 9:31 PM
TWELVE
There were 12 total possessions in Saturday's Army-Temple game, six for each team, fewer than in any FBS game since at least 2007. (Five games since 2007 had featured 13 total game possessions: bcftoys.com/possessions).
Game Possessions — BCF Toys
bcftoys.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:30 PM
There were 12 total possessions in Saturday's Army-Temple game, six for each team, fewer than in any FBS game since at least 2007. (Five games since 2007 had featured 13 total game possessions: bcftoys.com/possessions).
Clocked in for college football game day
November 8, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Clocked in for college football game day
LOVE this awesome and insightful thread on exactly how ESPN's college football FPI Strength of Record ratings are calculated. #datatransparency4ever
There seems to be some interest in how SOR is calculated, so I will do a quick thread.
If you aren't familiar with SOR (Strength of Record), it's defined at the bottom of the CFB FPI Resume page
t.co/3JZenVc4nt
If you aren't familiar with SOR (Strength of Record), it's defined at the bottom of the CFB FPI Resume page
t.co/3JZenVc4nt
November 6, 2025 at 8:10 PM
LOVE this awesome and insightful thread on exactly how ESPN's college football FPI Strength of Record ratings are calculated. #datatransparency4ever
One thing the CFP selection committee is consistent about, despite how they publicly frame it, is that they value "most accomplished" (i.e. strength of record ratings) over "best" (i.e. power ratings) every time.
bcftoys.com/2025-cfp
bcftoys.com/2025-cfp
2025 CFP Profiles — BCF Toys
bcftoys.com
November 5, 2025 at 2:49 PM
One thing the CFP selection committee is consistent about, despite how they publicly frame it, is that they value "most accomplished" (i.e. strength of record ratings) over "best" (i.e. power ratings) every time.
bcftoys.com/2025-cfp
bcftoys.com/2025-cfp
"Why does FEI have Team X rated above Team Y?" Game ratings are probably the best way to answer that question, and here's one way to visualize that data.
November 4, 2025 at 7:59 PM
"Why does FEI have Team X rated above Team Y?" Game ratings are probably the best way to answer that question, and here's one way to visualize that data.