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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 14h

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 14h

Charted this!

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 17h

Toughest remaining regular season schedule in terms of wins a top 20-30 FBS team would expect to have against it, per FEI:

2.6 Mississippi St
2.7 Alabama
2.7 Oklahoma
2.8 Kentucky
2.8 Auburn
3.0 Vanderbilt
3.0 Texas A&M
3.0 Wisconsin
3.1 Missouri
3.2 Florida

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 1d

Wins above what an average FBS team would expect to have against the schedule faced through Week 6, per FEI:
+3.1 Miami
+3.0 Texas A&M
+2.9 Ole Miss
+2.8 Ohio State
+2.3 Indiana
+2.3 Alabama
+2.2 Illinois
+2.1 Iowa State
+1.9 Oklahoma
+1.9 Georgia Tech

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 1d

13 FBS teams have scored at least 222 points this season through Week 6:
Vanderbilt, Virginia, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Memphis, USC, Indiana, Florida State, Oregon, Missouri, North Texas, UConn, Illinois

RedditCFB @redditcfb.com · 1d

Today is the 109th anniversary of one wild day in football

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 1d

Starting field position differential is an interesting "core" metric. I've found that it does have a positive relationship with team strength, but not nearly as strong as offensive and defensive efficiency metrics do.

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 1d

Interesting to me that 7 of 12 core metrics are "raw" unadjusted statistics and five are "opponent-adjusted" (as in, calculated relative to opponent averages)

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 1d

But I also have more questions!
- Relative scoring offense and scoring defense; I'm curious if these metrics are calculated with *all* game points scored, or only those scored on offensive drives
- Same with points per possession (off/def), yards per point, and plays per point

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 1d

Love digging into these articles every year on the committee selection process, and this one has some intriguing details about the 12 metrics used as the "bedrock of team comparisons".

Scott Dochterman @scottdochterman.bsky.social · 1d

What a CFP selection dry run revealed about college football’s most scrutinized conference room

www.nytimes.com/athletic/669...

Inside the CFP selection war room, the committee has plenty to think about

www.nytimes.com

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 1d

FEI games of the year to date (based on the average of each team's opp-adjusted game ratings):

Alabama 24, Georgia 21
Ohio St 14, Texas 7
Oregon 30, Penn St 24
Georgia 44, Tennessee 41
Texas A&M 41, Notre Dame 40
Miami 27, Notre Dame 24
Ole Miss 24, LSU 19
Indiana 20, Iowa 15

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 1d

"Best losses" to date:
Tennessee vs Georgia (41-44)
Texas vs Ohio St (7-14)
Georgia vs Alabama (21-24)
Penn St vs Oregon (24-30)
ND vs Texas A&M (40-41)
ND vs Miami (24-27)
LSU vs Ole Miss (19-24)
Kentucky vs Ole Miss (19-24)
Iowa vs Indiana (15-20)
Nebraska vs Michigan (27-30)

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 1d

0% weight when a team has played 10 FBS opponents, or when we reach the end of the regular season, whichever comes first.

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 1d

90th+ percentile FEI game ratings vs FBS opponents through Week 6:

4x - Alabama
3x - Miami, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon
2x - Florida State, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Oklahoma, Old Dominion, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Utah, Vanderbilt

bcftoys.com/2025-gr

2025 Game Ratings — BCF Toys

bcftoys.com

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 2d

Weekly ratings progression for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-wfei

2025 WFEI Ratings — BCF Toys

bcftoys.com

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 2d

FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 6 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 43% weight for teams that have played four FBS opponents, 33% for teams that have played five, 25% for teams that have played six.

Screenshot of FEI ratings table of top-15 teams through Week 6

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 3d

FEI ratings aren’t updated yet, they post each week by Tuesday morning

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 7d

Averaging two teams' GR percentiles in each game as a way to rank the year's best so far...

.913 Ohio St 14, Texas 7
.910 Oregon 30, Penn St 24 (2OT)
.899 Alabama 24, Georgia 21
.868 Georgia 44, Tennessee 41 (OT)

Both teams 80th+ percentile GR in each. Passes a sniff test?

Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 8d

90th+ percentile FEI game ratings (opp-adjusted single game possession efficiency) vs FBS opponents through Week 5:
4 - Oregon
3 - Alabama, Miami
2 - Florida State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Utah, Vanderbilt

Game Ratings: bcftoys.com/2025-gr

2025 Game Ratings — BCF Toys

bcftoys.com

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 7d

Pretty decent women's hoops Final 4 bracket you got there

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Reposted by Brian Fremeau

Patrick Stotz @patrickstotz.bsky.social · 11d

Found in my parents' basement. #dataviz from the 1932 Olympics

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 7d

What I'm sure I can do better at is bridging the gap for those encountering "analytics" they don't immediately understand. There have to be better entry points than just "look at this list of teams, now love/hate/share it".

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 7d

I *think* I do a fairly decent job at this stuff with FEI but please let me know if I’m missing any marks:

- ratings are clear about what is being measured
- supporting data is there to explain why some ratings might not make intuitive sense

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 8d

Wins above what an average FBS team would expect to have against the schedule faced through Week 5, per FEI:
+2.9 Ole Miss
+2.4 Texas A&M
+2.3 Ohio State
+2.2 Iowa State
+2.2 Miami
+2.2 Indiana
+1.9 Oklahoma
+1.8 Missouri
+1.8 Arizona State
+1.8 Georgia Tech

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 8d

FEI without preseason weights are still pretty wonky at this point because of limited data. Oregon would be 10th, for instance, having just defeated #29 Penn State. Top 5 would be:
1. Indiana
2. Miami
3. Notre Dame
4. Texas Tech
5. Alabama

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 8d

90th+ percentile FEI game ratings (opp-adjusted single game possession efficiency) vs FBS opponents through Week 5:
4 - Oregon
3 - Alabama, Miami
2 - Florida State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Utah, Vanderbilt

Game Ratings: bcftoys.com/2025-gr

2025 Game Ratings — BCF Toys

bcftoys.com

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Brian Fremeau @bcfremeau.bsky.social · 9d

Weekly ratings progression for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-wfei

2025 WFEI Ratings — BCF Toys

bcftoys.com

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