Ben Carlson
@bencarlson007.bsky.social
www.awealthofcommonsense.com
Feels like ~95% of investment ppl I follow are bearish on AI right now as it pertains to stock market expectations
Is it really gonna be that easy?
Is the market really that dumb?
Is it really gonna be that easy?
Is the market really that dumb?
November 25, 2025 at 12:55 AM
Feels like ~95% of investment ppl I follow are bearish on AI right now as it pertains to stock market expectations
Is it really gonna be that easy?
Is the market really that dumb?
Is it really gonna be that easy?
Is the market really that dumb?
I’m at Disney for the week
They should offer you a discount on beer at the parks for the number of kids you have
Spit-balling here:
1 kid - no discount
2 kids- 10% off booze
3 kids - 20% off
4 or more - 30% off
This seems fair
They should offer you a discount on beer at the parks for the number of kids you have
Spit-balling here:
1 kid - no discount
2 kids- 10% off booze
3 kids - 20% off
4 or more - 30% off
This seems fair
November 24, 2025 at 11:55 PM
I’m at Disney for the week
They should offer you a discount on beer at the parks for the number of kids you have
Spit-balling here:
1 kid - no discount
2 kids- 10% off booze
3 kids - 20% off
4 or more - 30% off
This seems fair
They should offer you a discount on beer at the parks for the number of kids you have
Spit-balling here:
1 kid - no discount
2 kids- 10% off booze
3 kids - 20% off
4 or more - 30% off
This seems fair
Reposted by Ben Carlson
We haven’t had a meaningful bear market in nearly 20 years. You might think “surely, this must end soon.” Historically, you would be wrong about the *must* part. The length of a bull market doesn’t have to obey your feelings or mine.
Chart @mattcerminaro.bsky.social via @bencarlson007.bsky.social
Chart @mattcerminaro.bsky.social via @bencarlson007.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 4:18 PM
We haven’t had a meaningful bear market in nearly 20 years. You might think “surely, this must end soon.” Historically, you would be wrong about the *must* part. The length of a bull market doesn’t have to obey your feelings or mine.
Chart @mattcerminaro.bsky.social via @bencarlson007.bsky.social
Chart @mattcerminaro.bsky.social via @bencarlson007.bsky.social
Watched Toy Story 3 w/my kids
Don’t think we talk enough about what a loser Andy is
Who keeps all their toys until age 18!?
Don’t think we talk enough about what a loser Andy is
Who keeps all their toys until age 18!?
November 24, 2025 at 1:04 AM
Watched Toy Story 3 w/my kids
Don’t think we talk enough about what a loser Andy is
Who keeps all their toys until age 18!?
Don’t think we talk enough about what a loser Andy is
Who keeps all their toys until age 18!?
We haven't had a long bear market for almost 20 years
Are investors prepared for a recessionary bear market that lasts more than a few months?
Do we need one to wash out the excesses?
Which generation of investors would feel the most pain?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/do-w...
Are investors prepared for a recessionary bear market that lasts more than a few months?
Do we need one to wash out the excesses?
Which generation of investors would feel the most pain?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/do-w...
November 22, 2025 at 3:03 PM
We haven't had a long bear market for almost 20 years
Are investors prepared for a recessionary bear market that lasts more than a few months?
Do we need one to wash out the excesses?
Which generation of investors would feel the most pain?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/do-w...
Are investors prepared for a recessionary bear market that lasts more than a few months?
Do we need one to wash out the excesses?
Which generation of investors would feel the most pain?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/do-w...
The Eddie Murphy doc on Netflix is excellent
I don’t think it’s controversial to say he might be the funniest comedian ever
He’s still got it too
I don’t think it’s controversial to say he might be the funniest comedian ever
He’s still got it too
November 22, 2025 at 4:37 AM
The Eddie Murphy doc on Netflix is excellent
I don’t think it’s controversial to say he might be the funniest comedian ever
He’s still got it too
I don’t think it’s controversial to say he might be the funniest comedian ever
He’s still got it too
The current drawdown in Bitcoin is now bigger than the Liberation Day plunge in April
Early Black Friday Sale
Early Black Friday Sale
November 20, 2025 at 7:30 PM
The current drawdown in Bitcoin is now bigger than the Liberation Day plunge in April
Early Black Friday Sale
Early Black Friday Sale
A guy put 50% of his portfolio into MSTR in the $300s (it's now ~$175)
He used margin to make the purchase
The money was to be used to buy a home
Can you save an investor like this?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/goin...
He used margin to make the purchase
The money was to be used to buy a home
Can you save an investor like this?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/goin...
November 20, 2025 at 7:19 PM
A guy put 50% of his portfolio into MSTR in the $300s (it's now ~$175)
He used margin to make the purchase
The money was to be used to buy a home
Can you save an investor like this?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/goin...
He used margin to make the purchase
The money was to be used to buy a home
Can you save an investor like this?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/goin...
The 401k max contribution limit is up ~30% in the 2020s
Investors always talk about what stocks to buy, biggest risks, economic data, etc
That stuff is far less important than simply maxing out your 401k every year
Saving more money is your best hedge
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/max-...
Investors always talk about what stocks to buy, biggest risks, economic data, etc
That stuff is far less important than simply maxing out your 401k every year
Saving more money is your best hedge
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/max-...
November 20, 2025 at 3:19 PM
The 401k max contribution limit is up ~30% in the 2020s
Investors always talk about what stocks to buy, biggest risks, economic data, etc
That stuff is far less important than simply maxing out your 401k every year
Saving more money is your best hedge
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/max-...
Investors always talk about what stocks to buy, biggest risks, economic data, etc
That stuff is far less important than simply maxing out your 401k every year
Saving more money is your best hedge
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/max-...
The drawdown profile for Meta and Bitcoin looks eerily similar
Maybe Mark Zuckerberg is Satoshi
Maybe Mark Zuckerberg is Satoshi
November 19, 2025 at 3:37 PM
The drawdown profile for Meta and Bitcoin looks eerily similar
Maybe Mark Zuckerberg is Satoshi
Maybe Mark Zuckerberg is Satoshi
Pretty decent washout for the speculative stuff:
OPEN -34%
OKLO -42%
RGTI -54%
IONQ -39%
MSTR -57%
COIN -38%
QUBT -52%
OPEN -34%
OKLO -42%
RGTI -54%
IONQ -39%
MSTR -57%
COIN -38%
QUBT -52%
November 19, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Pretty decent washout for the speculative stuff:
OPEN -34%
OKLO -42%
RGTI -54%
IONQ -39%
MSTR -57%
COIN -38%
QUBT -52%
OPEN -34%
OKLO -42%
RGTI -54%
IONQ -39%
MSTR -57%
COIN -38%
QUBT -52%
Animal Spirits: Is the AI Trade Over?
Where's the euphoria?
Is this a healthy correction?
Michael Burry's crash calls
Do we need a long bear market?
Will we see 0% rates in the next recession?
A bitcoin mini-crash & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
Where's the euphoria?
Is this a healthy correction?
Michael Burry's crash calls
Do we need a long bear market?
Will we see 0% rates in the next recession?
A bitcoin mini-crash & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
November 19, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Animal Spirits: Is the AI Trade Over?
Where's the euphoria?
Is this a healthy correction?
Michael Burry's crash calls
Do we need a long bear market?
Will we see 0% rates in the next recession?
A bitcoin mini-crash & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
Where's the euphoria?
Is this a healthy correction?
Michael Burry's crash calls
Do we need a long bear market?
Will we see 0% rates in the next recession?
A bitcoin mini-crash & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
How bad would an AI crash be?
If the AI bubble popped would it be a wonderful buying opportunity?
What if all the spending turns into ROI sooner than expected?
Will AI capex help small caps?
Some thoughts & visuals on everyone's favorite topic:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/ai-i...
If the AI bubble popped would it be a wonderful buying opportunity?
What if all the spending turns into ROI sooner than expected?
Will AI capex help small caps?
Some thoughts & visuals on everyone's favorite topic:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/ai-i...
November 17, 2025 at 6:23 PM
How bad would an AI crash be?
If the AI bubble popped would it be a wonderful buying opportunity?
What if all the spending turns into ROI sooner than expected?
Will AI capex help small caps?
Some thoughts & visuals on everyone's favorite topic:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/ai-i...
If the AI bubble popped would it be a wonderful buying opportunity?
What if all the spending turns into ROI sooner than expected?
Will AI capex help small caps?
Some thoughts & visuals on everyone's favorite topic:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/ai-i...
The narratives:
It's a K-shaped economy
Young ppl are screwed
Only the rich are thriving
I get it but think we're taking this too far
What if things are better than they seem on social media?
Some facts, figures and thoughts on this:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/what...
It's a K-shaped economy
Young ppl are screwed
Only the rich are thriving
I get it but think we're taking this too far
What if things are better than they seem on social media?
Some facts, figures and thoughts on this:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/what...
November 16, 2025 at 4:32 PM
The narratives:
It's a K-shaped economy
Young ppl are screwed
Only the rich are thriving
I get it but think we're taking this too far
What if things are better than they seem on social media?
Some facts, figures and thoughts on this:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/what...
It's a K-shaped economy
Young ppl are screwed
Only the rich are thriving
I get it but think we're taking this too far
What if things are better than they seem on social media?
Some facts, figures and thoughts on this:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/what...
3 options to fix a broken housing market:
1. 50 year mortgages (not that helpful)
2. One time 3% mortgage for anyone who missed out (not bad)
3. Build more housing (we're deregulating everything else but not this for some reason)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/the-...
1. 50 year mortgages (not that helpful)
2. One time 3% mortgage for anyone who missed out (not bad)
3. Build more housing (we're deregulating everything else but not this for some reason)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/the-...
November 14, 2025 at 1:41 PM
3 options to fix a broken housing market:
1. 50 year mortgages (not that helpful)
2. One time 3% mortgage for anyone who missed out (not bad)
3. Build more housing (we're deregulating everything else but not this for some reason)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/the-...
1. 50 year mortgages (not that helpful)
2. One time 3% mortgage for anyone who missed out (not bad)
3. Build more housing (we're deregulating everything else but not this for some reason)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/the-...
Death by Lightning is the first good show on Netflix in a very long time
Really well done
Really well done
November 14, 2025 at 2:10 AM
Death by Lightning is the first good show on Netflix in a very long time
Really well done
Really well done
We’re living thru an AI revolution and Siri still stinks at basic voice commands
Make it make sense
Make it make sense
November 13, 2025 at 10:03 PM
We’re living thru an AI revolution and Siri still stinks at basic voice commands
Make it make sense
Make it make sense
3 reasons we can't have another 1929:
1. There are more rules in place (no SEC, FDIC back then)
2. The stock market is way more important (1-2% of households owned stocks in 1929)
3. Policymakers have learned from past crises
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/why-...
1. There are more rules in place (no SEC, FDIC back then)
2. The stock market is way more important (1-2% of households owned stocks in 1929)
3. Policymakers have learned from past crises
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/why-...
Why We Can't Have Another 1929 - A Wealth of Common Sense
Could another Great Depression actually happen?
awealthofcommonsense.com
November 12, 2025 at 5:08 PM
3 reasons we can't have another 1929:
1. There are more rules in place (no SEC, FDIC back then)
2. The stock market is way more important (1-2% of households owned stocks in 1929)
3. Policymakers have learned from past crises
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/why-...
1. There are more rules in place (no SEC, FDIC back then)
2. The stock market is way more important (1-2% of households owned stocks in 1929)
3. Policymakers have learned from past crises
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/why-...
Animal Spirits: Is a 50 Year Mortgage a Good Idea?
The benefits of bubbles
The K-shaped economy narrative is going too far
Why are restaurant stocks getting killed?
How to fix the housing market
Robinhood, degens, Las Vegas & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
The benefits of bubbles
The K-shaped economy narrative is going too far
Why are restaurant stocks getting killed?
How to fix the housing market
Robinhood, degens, Las Vegas & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
November 12, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Animal Spirits: Is a 50 Year Mortgage a Good Idea?
The benefits of bubbles
The K-shaped economy narrative is going too far
Why are restaurant stocks getting killed?
How to fix the housing market
Robinhood, degens, Las Vegas & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
The benefits of bubbles
The K-shaped economy narrative is going too far
Why are restaurant stocks getting killed?
How to fix the housing market
Robinhood, degens, Las Vegas & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
In the Roaring 20s Benjamin Graham turned $400k into $2.5 million
After the crash from 1929-1932 the $2.5 million turned into just $375k
In his memoir Graham wrote about how hubris was the cause of his losses
Some thoughts on bull market brain:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/ben-...
After the crash from 1929-1932 the $2.5 million turned into just $375k
In his memoir Graham wrote about how hubris was the cause of his losses
Some thoughts on bull market brain:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/ben-...
November 11, 2025 at 9:21 PM
In the Roaring 20s Benjamin Graham turned $400k into $2.5 million
After the crash from 1929-1932 the $2.5 million turned into just $375k
In his memoir Graham wrote about how hubris was the cause of his losses
Some thoughts on bull market brain:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/ben-...
After the crash from 1929-1932 the $2.5 million turned into just $375k
In his memoir Graham wrote about how hubris was the cause of his losses
Some thoughts on bull market brain:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/ben-...
Everyone thinks young ppl are screwed
AI is taking entry level jobs
Housing is too expensive
Social media is rotting brains
I don't buy it. Young ppl are more educated & tech savvy than ever
They'll figure it out
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/are-...
AI is taking entry level jobs
Housing is too expensive
Social media is rotting brains
I don't buy it. Young ppl are more educated & tech savvy than ever
They'll figure it out
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/are-...
November 10, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Everyone thinks young ppl are screwed
AI is taking entry level jobs
Housing is too expensive
Social media is rotting brains
I don't buy it. Young ppl are more educated & tech savvy than ever
They'll figure it out
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/are-...
AI is taking entry level jobs
Housing is too expensive
Social media is rotting brains
I don't buy it. Young ppl are more educated & tech savvy than ever
They'll figure it out
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/are-...
Pluribus might be one of the best pilot TV episodes of the past 20 years
Insanely intriguing
Insanely intriguing
November 10, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Pluribus might be one of the best pilot TV episodes of the past 20 years
Insanely intriguing
Insanely intriguing
Build more homes?
Nah let’s use 50 year mortgages
Buy cheaper sedans instead of expensive trucks?
Nah let’s do 84 month auto loans
Make food at home?
Nah let’s pay for a private taxi for a burrito from DoorDash
Nah let’s use 50 year mortgages
Buy cheaper sedans instead of expensive trucks?
Nah let’s do 84 month auto loans
Make food at home?
Nah let’s pay for a private taxi for a burrito from DoorDash
November 8, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Build more homes?
Nah let’s use 50 year mortgages
Buy cheaper sedans instead of expensive trucks?
Nah let’s do 84 month auto loans
Make food at home?
Nah let’s pay for a private taxi for a burrito from DoorDash
Nah let’s use 50 year mortgages
Buy cheaper sedans instead of expensive trucks?
Nah let’s do 84 month auto loans
Make food at home?
Nah let’s pay for a private taxi for a burrito from DoorDash
Reader questions:
Should young ppl care about bubbles?
Is now the time to increase your tech exposure?
I have thoughts:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/is-n...
Should young ppl care about bubbles?
Is now the time to increase your tech exposure?
I have thoughts:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/is-n...
Is Now the Time to Go All-In on Tech Stocks? - A Wealth of Common Sense
Should young people care about bubbles? Is now the time to double down on tech stocks?
awealthofcommonsense.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Reader questions:
Should young ppl care about bubbles?
Is now the time to increase your tech exposure?
I have thoughts:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/is-n...
Should young ppl care about bubbles?
Is now the time to increase your tech exposure?
I have thoughts:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/is-n...
I don’t think ppl are ready for how AI is gonna make wealth inequality worse
If I was running PR for the Mag 7 companies I’d have them all throw in for a human fund for ppl who see their jobs displaced by AI
If I was running PR for the Mag 7 companies I’d have them all throw in for a human fund for ppl who see their jobs displaced by AI
November 7, 2025 at 12:37 AM
I don’t think ppl are ready for how AI is gonna make wealth inequality worse
If I was running PR for the Mag 7 companies I’d have them all throw in for a human fund for ppl who see their jobs displaced by AI
If I was running PR for the Mag 7 companies I’d have them all throw in for a human fund for ppl who see their jobs displaced by AI