John Bistline
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bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline
@bistline.bsky.social
5.4K followers 470 following 400 posts

Energy systems modeling, economics, policy | IPCC, NCA, Stanford/CMU alum | Views my own

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bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 7h
If you're headed home this week, remember: you're not just debating relatives, you're debating decades of lead exposure. Be kind.

Reposted by John Bistline

jessedjenkins.com
Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 5d
Battery export boom: China has exported approximately $60 billion in battery energy storage systems and components in the first three quarters of 2025, up 24% from last year www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

US export comparisons in 2024: Soy, $25b. LNG, $28.9b. Auto exports, $59.2b. 🔌💡
www.reuters.com

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 6d
Interesting update to NREL's data center map with Baxtel data.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 11d
It's remarkable how closely the projections match how much solar was being installed in the year the projections were made, basically assuming that additions would stay the same in perpetuity.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 11d
Here's the wild part: IEA's solar projections have usually just matched the actual additions in the year the forecast was made... basically assuming solar additions stay flat forever.

Thankfully, the future keeps showing up early.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 12d
Credit where it's due: this is an updated of the classic solar vs. IEA chart from @aukehoekstra.bsky.social and @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org. It's striking to see how much WEO scenarios and actual additions have evolved in the years since the original comparison.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 12d
Solar keeps blowing past expectations, but expectations are catching up. The latest IEA WEO now has PV topping 600 GW per year, though this year's scenarios are actually lower than last year's.

Reposted by David L. Anderson

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 13d
The U.S. is on track for another record year for clean electricity in 2025: 59 GW additions, which is 92% of new builds. Solar leads again, and storage nearly doubles. The grid is changing fast.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 13d
Who wore it better? @cmu.edu

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 13d
Peak chart crime: IEA invents Gt₂CO and non-Euclidean timelines. The x-axis is emissions, the labels are years, and a mannequin hikes an Escher ramp to nowhere.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 14d
Exactly. California and Hawaii have high rates but low consumption, so total household energy expenditures are lower than average.

This figure is from our Energy Wallet report: energywallet.epri.com/en/current.h...

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 14d
From GIs' rations to supply chains, energy systems, and climate policy: the diet problem shows how OR turns messy reality into a solvable problems... and how reality pushes back. Happy 111th, George!

You can read more here: resources.mpi-inf.mpg.de/departments/...
resources.mpi-inf.mpg.de

Reposted by Alistair Munro, John Bistline

aereorg.bsky.social
AERE @aereorg.bsky.social · 14d
📢 What’s current in #REEP? 📢
"Inflation Reduction Act: Origins, Policy Implications, and Research Gaps" by John E. T. Bistline ( @bistline.bsky.social ) and Catherine Wolfram ( @cwolfram.bsky.social ).
🔗 Read it here: buff.ly/xlWk4NK
📈📉 #Econsky

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 15d
Moral of the story: models are only as good as their data, definitions, and constraints. Also, good models don't replace judgment but organize it. Dantzig's wife studied the menus and said, "I'll put you on my diet." And he lost 22 pounds.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 15d
Then: two pounds of bran per day. Anne threatens to take him to the hospital, imposes a cap, and swaps in blackstrap molasses. New constraint, similar nutrients. Classic LP substitution.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 15d
Next day the model prescribes 200 bouillon cubes/day. Anne Dantzig drops a legendary pun: "What are you trying to do, corner the bullion market?" Doctor confirms: no upper bound on salt in the requirements. So Dantzig adds one. Behold, the origin story of upper bounds.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 15d
First menu from the IBM 701 includes... 500 gallons of vinegar. Because the source listed vinegar as "very weak acid" with water content = 0, the model treats it like dense fullness. "I decided vinegar wasn't a food."

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 15d
While at RAND, Dantzig's doctor tells him to go on a diet. So he models his own diet as an LP to maximize "feeling full." Objective ≈ food weight minus water weight. What could go wrong?

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 15d
Background: Dantzig invents the simplex algorithm for solving linear programming problems but needs a test case. In a Pentagon bull session, Marvin Hoffenberg suggests: "Try Jerry Cornfield's diet problem for GI rations" (i.e., finding a low-cost diet meeting nutritional needs).

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 15d
Modeling Monday: In honor of George Dantzig's 111th birthday, everyone knows the "late to class/solves two open problems thinking they were homework" story. Fewer know the hilarious backstory of the diet problem. Buckle up for an operations research thread... 🧵

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 19d
bsky.app/profile/bist...
bistline.bsky.social John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 19d
Ultimately, what matters is the emissions intensity of electricity generation. On that front, you're right that CA is currently lower than TX, but TX has made much faster progress (from a higher starting point) and is catching up to California.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 19d
Ultimately, what matters is the emissions intensity of electricity generation. On that front, you're right that CA is currently lower than TX, but TX has made much faster progress (from a higher starting point) and is catching up to California.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 19d
Updated data on renewables and energy storage deployment. The race between California and Texas is... how shall we say... no longer close.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 20d
20+ years of climate impacts research in one figure. Climate change hits everything, everywhere, all at once.

From Solomon Hsiang's new NBER paper on empirical methods and economic impacts of climate change: www.nber.org/papers/w34357

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 21d
Updated UNEP Emissions Gap just dropped. Current policies are projected to lead to peak warming of 2.8°C (with a range of 2.1-3.9°C). NDCs can push this down to 1.9-2.5°C.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 21d
Everyone's talking about AI's electricity demand. But new EIA data show planned gas builds look... pretty normal. Additions through 2030 track the last decade, not a 2000s style surge. Is this turbine supply constraints, lagging data, or something else?

Reposted by Aaron Sojourner, Greg Linden

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 22d
Big EV gap between China and the USA.
- China has 52 BEV models with >400-mile range with many under $50k; USA has 4 all priced above $75k
- EV sales share in 2024: China 47%; USA 10%

Great paper in Science by @jhelvy.bsky.social.

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Adam H. Sobel, Benjamin I. Cook , and 6 more

climatefran.bsky.social
ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 22d
🚨The Moore Lab at UC Davis is hiring!🚨
Post-doc for a project with @adamsobel.bsky.social on the valuation of climate information for adaptation
Could be a good fit for an environmental economist or a climate scientist - flexible start date and location
Apply by Dec 1st: recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07346
Postdoctoral Scholar - Environmental Science & Policy
University of California, Davis is hiring. Apply now!
recruit.ucdavis.edu

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 22d
Interesting takeaway from a new ESIG report: Half of recent planning studies assume at least one emerging technology by 2030. Do these timelines seem realistic for advanced nuclear, e-fuels, direct air capture, and the ever-popular "generic resource?"

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 25d
Be careful out there. They're putting RCP8.5 in candy bars.