Brian Scheid
@brianscheid.bsky.social
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Senior Reporter, Global Markets
Senior Reporter, Global Markets
US dollar's global safe-haven standing is slipping
"Less political surprises and uncertainty would be helpful" says Rabobank's Jane Foley
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Less political surprises and uncertainty would be helpful" says Rabobank's Jane Foley
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
February 13, 2026 at 2:39 PM
US dollar's global safe-haven standing is slipping
"Less political surprises and uncertainty would be helpful" says Rabobank's Jane Foley
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Less political surprises and uncertainty would be helpful" says Rabobank's Jane Foley
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
'Prime-age' Americans in workforce rise to 25-year high as jobs picture darkens
"I think we are still feeling the echoes of the rapid labor market recovery post-2020, which drew people into the labor market" said @prestonmui.bsky.social www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"I think we are still feeling the echoes of the rapid labor market recovery post-2020, which drew people into the labor market" said @prestonmui.bsky.social www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
February 12, 2026 at 3:18 PM
'Prime-age' Americans in workforce rise to 25-year high as jobs picture darkens
"I think we are still feeling the echoes of the rapid labor market recovery post-2020, which drew people into the labor market" said @prestonmui.bsky.social www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"I think we are still feeling the echoes of the rapid labor market recovery post-2020, which drew people into the labor market" said @prestonmui.bsky.social www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
How much will the US labor market need to weaken for the Fed to cut rates again?
5% unemployment?
Mass layoffs?
"Any indications that employers are increasingly leaning into trimming their payrolls would be a red flag that would be tough for the Fed to ignore."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
5% unemployment?
Mass layoffs?
"Any indications that employers are increasingly leaning into trimming their payrolls would be a red flag that would be tough for the Fed to ignore."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
February 4, 2026 at 5:26 PM
How much will the US labor market need to weaken for the Fed to cut rates again?
5% unemployment?
Mass layoffs?
"Any indications that employers are increasingly leaning into trimming their payrolls would be a red flag that would be tough for the Fed to ignore."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
5% unemployment?
Mass layoffs?
"Any indications that employers are increasingly leaning into trimming their payrolls would be a red flag that would be tough for the Fed to ignore."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Reposted by Brian Scheid
For markets reporters, Howard was indispensable. www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
Wall Street Laments Departure of the ‘High Priest’ of the S&P 500
Many investors wonder what they will do without Howard Silverblatt, a markets data maven, now that he is retired.
www.wsj.com
February 3, 2026 at 4:37 PM
For markets reporters, Howard was indispensable. www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
Government shutdown may complicate Fed's interest rate plans
"Another government shutdown may toss the Fed back into the wilderness as the absence of clear data complicates monetary policy planning"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Another government shutdown may toss the Fed back into the wilderness as the absence of clear data complicates monetary policy planning"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
January 29, 2026 at 3:21 PM
Government shutdown may complicate Fed's interest rate plans
"Another government shutdown may toss the Fed back into the wilderness as the absence of clear data complicates monetary policy planning"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Another government shutdown may toss the Fed back into the wilderness as the absence of clear data complicates monetary policy planning"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"I think the Fed takes a pass at this meeting and markets keep their focus elsewhere for now. The policy rate is around neutral today, and the economy isn't demanding a change in policy." www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
January 26, 2026 at 3:01 PM
"I think the Fed takes a pass at this meeting and markets keep their focus elsewhere for now. The policy rate is around neutral today, and the economy isn't demanding a change in policy." www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US IPOs log gradual recovery in 2025, yet still lag recent boom
"It's well below what we see in a healthy IPO market"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"It's well below what we see in a healthy IPO market"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
January 22, 2026 at 3:40 PM
US IPOs log gradual recovery in 2025, yet still lag recent boom
"It's well below what we see in a healthy IPO market"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"It's well below what we see in a healthy IPO market"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US food prices are rising at a pace faster than broader inflation, souring economic expectations and skewing consumers' views of the domestic economy
"I think there is a disconnect between official inflation numbers and the perception of inflation"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"I think there is a disconnect between official inflation numbers and the perception of inflation"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
January 14, 2026 at 7:14 PM
US food prices are rising at a pace faster than broader inflation, souring economic expectations and skewing consumers' views of the domestic economy
"I think there is a disconnect between official inflation numbers and the perception of inflation"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"I think there is a disconnect between official inflation numbers and the perception of inflation"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"If you have a job and you're not looking for work, you're fine. But if you're unemployed, if you're on the sidelines, it's a much more difficult labor market than in previous years." @samrkuhn.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
January 12, 2026 at 4:31 PM
"If you have a job and you're not looking for work, you're fine. But if you're unemployed, if you're on the sidelines, it's a much more difficult labor market than in previous years." @samrkuhn.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Is this the year for a small caps breakout?
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
January 8, 2026 at 5:52 PM
Is this the year for a small caps breakout?
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Job openings, pace of hiring decline as US labor market cools further
Employers "aren't at all confident that hiring will lead to profit," says @aaronsojourner.org "They're reluctant to commit to new payroll expenses, so they've reduced job openings over the year."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Employers "aren't at all confident that hiring will lead to profit," says @aaronsojourner.org "They're reluctant to commit to new payroll expenses, so they've reduced job openings over the year."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
January 8, 2026 at 2:06 PM
Job openings, pace of hiring decline as US labor market cools further
Employers "aren't at all confident that hiring will lead to profit," says @aaronsojourner.org "They're reluctant to commit to new payroll expenses, so they've reduced job openings over the year."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Employers "aren't at all confident that hiring will lead to profit," says @aaronsojourner.org "They're reluctant to commit to new payroll expenses, so they've reduced job openings over the year."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Reposted by Brian Scheid
UMich consumer sentiment (current conditions) at 50.4 is a new all-time low -- going back to data from the 1970s.
U.S MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (DEC) ACTUAL: 52.9 VS 53.3 PREVIOUS; EST 53.5
December 19, 2025 at 3:04 PM
UMich consumer sentiment (current conditions) at 50.4 is a new all-time low -- going back to data from the 1970s.
The number of Americans working part-time jobs for economic reasons has surged to the highest level since early 2021, indicating that employers may be delaying an inevitable wave of layoffs
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
w/ @danielzhao.bsky.social @aaronsojourner.org @prestonmui.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
w/ @danielzhao.bsky.social @aaronsojourner.org @prestonmui.bsky.social
December 17, 2025 at 2:24 PM
The number of Americans working part-time jobs for economic reasons has surged to the highest level since early 2021, indicating that employers may be delaying an inevitable wave of layoffs
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
w/ @danielzhao.bsky.social @aaronsojourner.org @prestonmui.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
w/ @danielzhao.bsky.social @aaronsojourner.org @prestonmui.bsky.social
"While it’s too soon to declare that we’re in a recession, the data are at least pre-recessionary: that is, the numbers are weak enough that we should be seriously worried that a recession is coming"
- @pkrugman.bsky.social on yesterday's jobs report
- @pkrugman.bsky.social on yesterday's jobs report
December 17, 2025 at 2:03 PM
"While it’s too soon to declare that we’re in a recession, the data are at least pre-recessionary: that is, the numbers are weak enough that we should be seriously worried that a recession is coming"
- @pkrugman.bsky.social on yesterday's jobs report
- @pkrugman.bsky.social on yesterday's jobs report
US large caps are on track for their third consecutive year of well above average returns: after price returns of 24% in 2023 and 23% in 2024, the S&P 500 is up 15.6% YTD vs. an average calendar year return of 9.2% since the index’s inception
- S&P Dow Jones Indices
- S&P Dow Jones Indices
December 17, 2025 at 1:59 PM
US large caps are on track for their third consecutive year of well above average returns: after price returns of 24% in 2023 and 23% in 2024, the S&P 500 is up 15.6% YTD vs. an average calendar year return of 9.2% since the index’s inception
- S&P Dow Jones Indices
- S&P Dow Jones Indices
With rising expectations of a market reversal, institutions withdrew a net $43.40B from the stock market. Of that total, a net $22.03B... was sold during the third week of November, when the S&P 500 fell nearly 2%, its largest weekly loss of the month
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
December 16, 2025 at 8:58 PM
With rising expectations of a market reversal, institutions withdrew a net $43.40B from the stock market. Of that total, a net $22.03B... was sold during the third week of November, when the S&P 500 fell nearly 2%, its largest weekly loss of the month
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
The pause in the Fed's rate cutting cycle has pushed the struggling US dollar into a "range-bound, directionless phase" "Neither strongly bearish nor bullish," says Daniel Hathorn w/ @capitalcom.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
December 16, 2025 at 8:55 PM
The pause in the Fed's rate cutting cycle has pushed the struggling US dollar into a "range-bound, directionless phase" "Neither strongly bearish nor bullish," says Daniel Hathorn w/ @capitalcom.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
AI eliminating entry-level, tech jobs with effects still in early stages
"It takes time for the technology to diffuse, and right now it really takes some level of specialized knowledge to apply the technology," said Lucas Hansen w/ CivAI
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"It takes time for the technology to diffuse, and right now it really takes some level of specialized knowledge to apply the technology," said Lucas Hansen w/ CivAI
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
December 11, 2025 at 2:23 PM
AI eliminating entry-level, tech jobs with effects still in early stages
"It takes time for the technology to diffuse, and right now it really takes some level of specialized knowledge to apply the technology," said Lucas Hansen w/ CivAI
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"It takes time for the technology to diffuse, and right now it really takes some level of specialized knowledge to apply the technology," said Lucas Hansen w/ CivAI
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
AI bubble worries, Fed moves may dash hopes for Santa Claus rally
"I continue to see markets as one materially negative catalyst away from a cyclical bear market taking shape"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"I continue to see markets as one materially negative catalyst away from a cyclical bear market taking shape"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
December 4, 2025 at 2:28 PM
AI bubble worries, Fed moves may dash hopes for Santa Claus rally
"I continue to see markets as one materially negative catalyst away from a cyclical bear market taking shape"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"I continue to see markets as one materially negative catalyst away from a cyclical bear market taking shape"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Dearth of data boosts odds of most contested Fed rate decision ever
"The range of possibilities is very wide, and the direction of how things might go could come down to some personal biases and political views"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"The range of possibilities is very wide, and the direction of how things might go could come down to some personal biases and political views"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
December 1, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Dearth of data boosts odds of most contested Fed rate decision ever
"The range of possibilities is very wide, and the direction of how things might go could come down to some personal biases and political views"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"The range of possibilities is very wide, and the direction of how things might go could come down to some personal biases and political views"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Today's Fed Beige Book:
"A few firms noted that artificial intelligence replaced entry-level positions or made existing workers productive enough to curb new hiring."
"A few firms noted that artificial intelligence replaced entry-level positions or made existing workers productive enough to curb new hiring."
November 26, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Today's Fed Beige Book:
"A few firms noted that artificial intelligence replaced entry-level positions or made existing workers productive enough to curb new hiring."
"A few firms noted that artificial intelligence replaced entry-level positions or made existing workers productive enough to curb new hiring."
Reposted by Brian Scheid
Beige Book word counts: uncertainty continues to fall as focus on tariffs declines, while labor markets offer a very mixed picture. Hiring was mentioned near the most frequently on record but layoff mentions also accelerating; that latter indicator has worked as a recession indicator historically.
November 26, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Beige Book word counts: uncertainty continues to fall as focus on tariffs declines, while labor markets offer a very mixed picture. Hiring was mentioned near the most frequently on record but layoff mentions also accelerating; that latter indicator has worked as a recession indicator historically.
A K-shaped economy runs into the US holiday spending season:
"Some may choose to use high-cost consumer credit to get through the holiday season. But others may choose to economize and scale down the holiday season spending."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Some may choose to use high-cost consumer credit to get through the holiday season. But others may choose to economize and scale down the holiday season spending."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
November 24, 2025 at 2:25 PM
A K-shaped economy runs into the US holiday spending season:
"Some may choose to use high-cost consumer credit to get through the holiday season. But others may choose to economize and scale down the holiday season spending."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Some may choose to use high-cost consumer credit to get through the holiday season. But others may choose to economize and scale down the holiday season spending."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Goldman Sachs:
"Only 29% of large-cap equity mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks YTD, compared to a 37% average since 2007. In an attempt to keep up with benchmarks, equity mutual funds have reduced their cash balances to just 1.2% of assets, a record low."
"Only 29% of large-cap equity mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks YTD, compared to a 37% average since 2007. In an attempt to keep up with benchmarks, equity mutual funds have reduced their cash balances to just 1.2% of assets, a record low."
November 22, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Goldman Sachs:
"Only 29% of large-cap equity mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks YTD, compared to a 37% average since 2007. In an attempt to keep up with benchmarks, equity mutual funds have reduced their cash balances to just 1.2% of assets, a record low."
"Only 29% of large-cap equity mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks YTD, compared to a 37% average since 2007. In an attempt to keep up with benchmarks, equity mutual funds have reduced their cash balances to just 1.2% of assets, a record low."
High unemployment for younger, Black workers may decide Fed's next rate move
"That is likely an indicator of broader labor market weakness down the road, or given the lag, maybe now," says @deanbaker13.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"That is likely an indicator of broader labor market weakness down the road, or given the lag, maybe now," says @deanbaker13.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
November 20, 2025 at 8:38 PM
High unemployment for younger, Black workers may decide Fed's next rate move
"That is likely an indicator of broader labor market weakness down the road, or given the lag, maybe now," says @deanbaker13.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"That is likely an indicator of broader labor market weakness down the road, or given the lag, maybe now," says @deanbaker13.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...