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Is Russia’s Justice System Reshuffle an Attempt to Rein in the Security Forces?

Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 1d

Why did Putin appoint former prosecutor general Igor Krasnov to head of Russia’s Supreme Court, and what does this mean for the growing power of Russia’s security forces amid the war with Ukraine? Read Mikhail Komin’s analysis: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

It seems that Putin decided not to reward Prosecutor General Krasnov for the trillions of rubles he had expropriated for the budget. Instead, he chose to curb Krasnov’s enthusiasm and protect the syst...

Moscow’s Xenophobic Migration Policy Is Impacting Relations With Central Asia

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Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 2d

Moscow’s anti-immigrant campaign at home is proving increasingly costly abroad. For the first time in years, Central Asian countries are reassessing their relations with Moscow, writes Galiya Ibragimova: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

By stirring up anti-migrant sentiment to distract Russian society from the war in Ukraine, Moscow is alienating its allies in Central Asia. Following Azerbaijan’s example, Central Asian countries are ...

Ukraine’s hellfire is intensifying the Kremlin’s fuel crisis

Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 2d

Sergey Vakulenko's perspective on intensifying Ukrainian strikes against Russia's refineries is featured in a recent article from The Economist.

Almost half of Russia’s refineries have been hit by drones and missiles

www.economist.com

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Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 3d

"Kyiv’s unprecedented strike campaign against Russian oil refineries has inflicted serious—but likely not critical—damage on the country’s ability to produce fuel." Sergey Vakulenko analyzes the impact on Russia’s oil refining capacity.

Have Ukrainian Drones Really Knocked Out 38% of Russia’s Oil Refining Capacity?

Kyiv’s unprecedented strike campaign on Russian oil refineries has inflicted serious—but likely not critical—damage on the country’s ability to produce fuel.

What the Kremlin is learning from the war in Ukraine.

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Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · 2d

In a new article for @foreignaffairs.com, Senior Fellow Dara Massicot (@massdara.bsky.social) argues that the Russian military has "quietly constructed a complex ecosystem of learning" to institutionalize battlefield lessons from Ukraine.

How Russia Recovered

www.foreignaffairs.com

Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 4d

Russia has revived Intervision, a Cold War-era socialist bloc alternative to Eurovision. But despite a slick showbiz veneer, it failed to provide a convincing answer as to why it was necessary in the first place, argues Andrey Shashkov:

Putin’s Nostalgia Makes a Muddle of Russian Eurovision Analog

Despite the organizers’ efforts, Intervision was unable to demonstrate its reason for existence, and ended up with disappointing viewing figures.

What to Do About Russian Drones in NATO Airspace, with Justyna Gotkowska

Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 7d

🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Justyna Gotkowska discuss the latest Russia-related airspace violations of Denmark, Estonia, Norway, and Poland, and what they mean for NATO: carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

Russia’s Current Demographic Crisis Is Its Most Dangerous Yet

Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 7d

Russia is once again facing a major demographic crisis, and this time the decline in the birth rate is deeper, the age structure of the population is worse, and Russia's appeal to immigrants has declined, writes Salavat Abylkalikov: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

The key difference between the current demographic crisis and the previous one is that the latter was significantly mitigated by an element that is now absent: immigration.

New Budget Confirms the Russian Public Is Paying for the War

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Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 8d

"After three and a half years of war, the Russian government is stabilizing the country’s war-torn public finances not through economic growth, but through tax hikes." Alexandra Prokopenko analyzes Russia's draft budget and the coming tax changes: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

After three and a half years of war, the Russian government is stabilizing the country’s war-torn public finances not through economic growth, but through tax hikes.

Russian military continues 'grinding advance' in Donetsk - The World from PRX

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Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · 9d

As the Russian military continues its "grinding advance" in Donetsk, Senior Fellow Michael Kofman (@michaelkofman.bsky.social) joins @theworld.org's Marco Werman to discuss why Russian casualties are on the rise.

Russian troops have made incremental gains in parts of eastern Ukraine, although their advances elsewhere have stalled. That’s according to Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment fo...

theworld.org

Why Putin No Longer Needs Negotiator in Chief Dmitry Kozak

Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 10d

"For decades, Dmitry Kozak was one of Putin’s most trusted mediators when it came to post-Soviet countries. But the war in Ukraine has made his services redundant." Vladimir Solovyov on the high-profile departure of the Kremlin deputy chief of staff: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

For decades, Dmitry Kozak was one of Putin’s most trusted mediators when it came to post-Soviet countries. But the war in Ukraine has made his services redundant.

Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal Could Trigger a Central Asian Water Crisis

Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 16d

Water shortages in Central Asia will worsen significantly when Afghanistan completes a canal diverting substantial volumes of water from the Amu Darya River. And it could escalate regional tensions, writes Galiya Ibragimova. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

The ambitious irrigation project is becoming a source of growing tension in Central Asia, but none of the region’s countries have been able to come up with an alternative solution.

https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/36087/finlands-frontline-and-natos-northern-defense/

Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 13d

The latest Russia Contingency is out. I join BG Jyri Raitasalo to talk about how Finnish Defense Forces are changing training, perspectives on lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, deterrence/defense l as part of NATO, and more. @WarOnTheRocks t.co/wnKrcOxLug

t.co

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Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 17d

Negotiations over the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline are bogged down in discussions over price, flexibility, and timeframe—and Russia’s lack of alternative buyers means China can take its time, argues Sergey Vakulenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Why Can’t Russia and China Agree on the Power of Siberia 2 Gas Pipeline?

Negotiations are bogged down in discussions over price, flexibility, and timeframe—and Russia’s lack of alternative buyers means China can take its time.

Can Russia’s Militarized Economy Ever Return to a Civilian Model?

Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 18d

The painless return of Russia’s fully militarized economy to a civilian model is impossible: no amount of fortune can override the laws of economics, argues Alexandra Prokopenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

A painless return to the civilian model is impossible: no amount of fortune can override the laws of economics.

An Unlikely Road to Peace in the South Caucasus

Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · 17d

How did the White House end up brokering a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

In a new article for @foreignaffairs.com, Senior Fellow Thomas de Waal unravels how a shared rejection of Russian dominance in the South Caucasus drove both parties down "an unlikely road to peace."

Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 18d

Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...

How common cause against Russia enabled an American deal.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 21d

🎙️🎚️‼️
Your weekend podcast is here. I sat down with great Sergey Vakulenko to discuss the state of Russia's war engine: the oil and gas sector. Few people in the world new this domain better than Sergey. Tune in to @carnegierussia.bsky.social!
open.spotify.com/episode/2PZW...

Putin’s War Engine: How Healthy is Russia’s Oil and Gas Industry? With Sergey Vakulenko

open.spotify.com

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Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 22d

"Should PAS fall short of an outright majority, political instability would likely follow. Potential coalition partners are considered unreliable, leaving any post-election alliance prone to collapse." Balazs Jarabik on Moldova's upcoming vote: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Moldova Elections: Managed Stability, Fragile Politics

Should PAS fall short of an outright majority, political instability would likely follow. Potential coalition partners are considered either unreliable or politically compromised, leaving any post-ele...

Stray Russian Drones Test Minsk’s Attempts to Improve Relations With the West

Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 23d

Russian drones crossing Belarus’s western border in one direction while a U.S. delegation entered from the other direction on the same day illustrates how little control Lukashenko has over his mission of ending his isolation, writes Artyom Shraibman: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Minsk’s modest progress in creating a more predictable and peaceful image could stall at any minute as a result of tensions and developments in the region or a change in mood by Putin or Trump.

Episode 235: Behind the peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan

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Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 24d

I was very glad of the opportunity to have a substantial conversation with @neweasterneurope.eu on the Trump deal with Armenia and Azerbaijan talkeasterneurope.eu/episodes/epi...

In this episode, Alexandra and Adam start off with some discussion on the news, including concerns over the upcoming Russia/Belarus Zapad 2025 militar...

talkeasterneurope.eu

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Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 24d

Washington may have persuaded Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a long-awaited peace agreement, but one month later it still remains unclear how much the U.S. is ready to invest to make it stick, argues Olesya Vartanyan: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

A Month After Historic Armenia-Azerbaijan Summit, Has Trump Secured a Lasting Peace?

Washington may have persuaded Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a long-awaited peace agreement, but one month later it still remains unclear how much the United States is ready to invest to make it stick...

China Has Flooded Central Asia With Electric Cars—the Impact Will Be Long-Lasting

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Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 29d

While the West is using customs duties to try to head off an influx of Chinese electric cars, the countries of Central Asia are doing everything they can to welcome them. Temur Umarov and Roman Vakulchuk assess the consequences for the region: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

By entering this new stage of development of the automotive industry via Chinese electric cars, Central Asia will eventually be forced to adopt Chinese standards for the industry’s development, integr...

Ukraine war increasingly likely to go into 2026, military analyst says | CNN

Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · Sep 10

Senior Fellow Michael Kofman (@michaelkofman.bsky.social) discusses the current trajectory of the Ukraine-Russia war with CNN's Bianna Golodryga (@biannagolodryga.bsky.social) and shares his observations from a recent trip to the frontlines.

Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, speaks with Bianna Golodryga about what he learned from his trip to the frontlines of the Ukraine-Russia war.

edition.cnn.com

Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · Sep 10

The emergence of Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov as the frontrunner to head Russia’s Supreme Court heralds little legal change, but does shed light on Kremlin priorities. Read Vladislav Gorin's article: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Putin’s Supreme Court Pick Heralds Further State Appropriation of Assets

The emergence of Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov as the frontrunner to head Russia’s Supreme Court heralds little legal change, but does shed light on Kremlin priorities.