Thomas de Waal
@tomdewaal.bsky.social
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe, all things Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Black Sea. Also Russian poetry.
This year Armenia and Azerbaijan inch towards a peace agreement. Armenia holds a critical parliamentary elections. I discuss 2026 in the region for the @carnegieeurope.bsky.social podcast with @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social and Areg Kochinyan.
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...
Is 2026 a Turning Point for Armenia and Azerbaijan? | Europe Inside Out
Thomas de Waal, Zaur Shiriyev, and Areg Kochinyan examine recent shifts in Armenia–Azerbaijan relations and explore future trajectories in the South Caucasus.
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com
February 11, 2026 at 2:25 PM
This year Armenia and Azerbaijan inch towards a peace agreement. Armenia holds a critical parliamentary elections. I discuss 2026 in the region for the @carnegieeurope.bsky.social podcast with @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social and Areg Kochinyan.
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...
I had stopped advertising our Akram Aylisli event tomorrow evening as it was sold out but they have now moved us to a bigger room. Come along if you can! (ignore the banner here) www.thersa.org/events/2026/...
The unquiet past: memory, conflict and the writer’s voice
A special live music and reading event dedicated to Akram Aylisli, the Nobel Prize-nominated Azerbaijani writer whose novel Stone Dreams ignited international debate on Armenia and Azerbaijan.
www.thersa.org
February 10, 2026 at 5:03 PM
I had stopped advertising our Akram Aylisli event tomorrow evening as it was sold out but they have now moved us to a bigger room. Come along if you can! (ignore the banner here) www.thersa.org/events/2026/...
Reposted by Thomas de Waal
🆕 | A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards.
In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Europolis, Where Europe Ends
A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.
carnegieendowment.org
February 5, 2026 at 12:06 PM
🆕 | A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards.
In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Europolis, an evocative Romanian novel from 1933 about a Danube delta town, has much to tell us about Europe's real and imagined discontents. Real "decay" in Europe is about closing off cultural and mercantile exchange My piece for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Europolis, Where Europe Ends
A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.
carnegieendowment.org
February 6, 2026 at 4:16 AM
Europolis, an evocative Romanian novel from 1933 about a Danube delta town, has much to tell us about Europe's real and imagined discontents. Real "decay" in Europe is about closing off cultural and mercantile exchange My piece for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Reposted by Thomas de Waal
❔ | In return for a trade deal & the release of prisoners, Washington has lifted sanctions on Belarus.
Should Europeans follow suit, using their leverage to extract concessions from Lukashenko, or continue to isolate a key Kremlin ally?
Read experts' takes:
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Should Europeans follow suit, using their leverage to extract concessions from Lukashenko, or continue to isolate a key Kremlin ally?
Read experts' takes:
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Taking the Pulse: Is It Time for Europe to Reengage With Belarus?
In return for a trade deal and the release of political prisoners, the United States has lifted sanctions on Belarus, breaking the previous Western policy consensus. Should Europeans follow suit, usin...
carnegieendowment.org
January 29, 2026 at 12:45 PM
❔ | In return for a trade deal & the release of prisoners, Washington has lifted sanctions on Belarus.
Should Europeans follow suit, using their leverage to extract concessions from Lukashenko, or continue to isolate a key Kremlin ally?
Read experts' takes:
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Should Europeans follow suit, using their leverage to extract concessions from Lukashenko, or continue to isolate a key Kremlin ally?
Read experts' takes:
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Reposted by Thomas de Waal
Delighted to contribute to @carnegieendowment.org ’s #TakingThePulse on whether Europe should reengage with #Belarus. An interesting set of diverse views: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat....
Taking the Pulse: Is It Time for Europe to Reengage With Belarus?
In return for a trade deal and the release of political prisoners, the United States has lifted sanctions on Belarus, breaking the previous Western policy consensus. Should Europeans follow suit, usin...
carnegieendowment.org
January 29, 2026 at 4:45 PM
Delighted to contribute to @carnegieendowment.org ’s #TakingThePulse on whether Europe should reengage with #Belarus. An interesting set of diverse views: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat....
Viktor Orban is using new and old methods to keep power in the upcoming Hungarian election, from handouts to AI fabrications. It's a laboratory of sorts for other future European elections. By the remarkable Zsuzsanna Szelényi for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
New Tricks and AI Tools in Hungary’s High-Stakes Election
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faces his most serious challenge yet in the April 2026 parliamentary elections. All of Europe should monitor the Fidesz campaign: It will use unprecedented method...
carnegieendowment.org
January 27, 2026 at 6:24 PM
Viktor Orban is using new and old methods to keep power in the upcoming Hungarian election, from handouts to AI fabrications. It's a laboratory of sorts for other future European elections. By the remarkable Zsuzsanna Szelényi for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Reposted by Thomas de Waal
The hyper-personalized global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia.
But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptive former ally determined to break the rules, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptive former ally determined to break the rules, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Europe Faces the Gone-Rogue Doctrine
The hyper-personalized new version of global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia. But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptiv...
carnegieendowment.org
January 20, 2026 at 1:22 PM
The hyper-personalized global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia.
But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptive former ally determined to break the rules, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptive former ally determined to break the rules, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
It's not the Monroe Doctrine 2.0, it's the “Gone-Rogue Doctrine.”
My column today for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social on Trump's Greenland gambit as performative imperialism, why “sphere of influence” politics doesn’t work any more and Europe's choices. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
My column today for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social on Trump's Greenland gambit as performative imperialism, why “sphere of influence” politics doesn’t work any more and Europe's choices. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Europe Faces the Gone-Rogue Doctrine
The hyper-personalized new version of global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia. But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptiv...
carnegieendowment.org
January 20, 2026 at 2:19 PM
It's not the Monroe Doctrine 2.0, it's the “Gone-Rogue Doctrine.”
My column today for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social on Trump's Greenland gambit as performative imperialism, why “sphere of influence” politics doesn’t work any more and Europe's choices. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
My column today for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social on Trump's Greenland gambit as performative imperialism, why “sphere of influence” politics doesn’t work any more and Europe's choices. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Reposted by Thomas de Waal
Europe is designing a new model of collective security that no longer relies on the United States.
For this effort to succeed, solidarity between member states that have different threat perceptions is vital, argues @erik-jones.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
For this effort to succeed, solidarity between member states that have different threat perceptions is vital, argues @erik-jones.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Solidarity Is a Must for Europe to Ensure its Own Security
Europe is designing a new model of collective security that no longer relies on the United States. For this effort to succeed, solidarity between member states that have different threat perceptions i...
carnegieendowment.org
January 8, 2026 at 4:52 PM
Europe is designing a new model of collective security that no longer relies on the United States.
For this effort to succeed, solidarity between member states that have different threat perceptions is vital, argues @erik-jones.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
For this effort to succeed, solidarity between member states that have different threat perceptions is vital, argues @erik-jones.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Reposted by Thomas de Waal
The EU Parliament has adopted a new resolution condemning the human rights situation in Azerbaijan and the imprisonment of researchers Bahruz Samadov and Igbal Abilov, on 18 December.
EU Parliament adopts resolution condemning human rights situation in Azerbaijan
The resolution ‘strongly’ condemns the arrest of Ali Karimli, chair of the opposition Popular Front Party, and calls for his immediate release.
oc-media.org
December 19, 2025 at 3:09 PM
The EU Parliament has adopted a new resolution condemning the human rights situation in Azerbaijan and the imprisonment of researchers Bahruz Samadov and Igbal Abilov, on 18 December.
Reposted by Thomas de Waal
U.S. President Donald Trump's claims to have ended eight wars may be debatable, but his #peace efforts raise valid questions.
Europe can learn lessons from Washington on how to break the deadlock in protracted conflicts, writes @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Europe can learn lessons from Washington on how to break the deadlock in protracted conflicts, writes @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Trump’s Peace Lessons for Europe
U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims to have ended eight wars may be debatable, but his peace efforts raise valid questions. Europe can learn lessons from Washington on how to break the deadlock in pr...
carnegieendowment.org
December 16, 2025 at 12:34 PM
U.S. President Donald Trump's claims to have ended eight wars may be debatable, but his #peace efforts raise valid questions.
Europe can learn lessons from Washington on how to break the deadlock in protracted conflicts, writes @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Europe can learn lessons from Washington on how to break the deadlock in protracted conflicts, writes @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
My piece just published. It's easy to be sniffy about Trump's "Art of the Deal" peace-making. Liberal peace is still the best variety, if rare. But Europe can still learn from Trump's willingness to shake things up and break the status quo. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Trump’s Peace Lessons for Europe
U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims to have ended eight wars may be debatable, but his peace efforts raise valid questions. Europe can learn lessons from Washington on how to break the deadlock in pr...
carnegieendowment.org
December 16, 2025 at 12:58 PM
My piece just published. It's easy to be sniffy about Trump's "Art of the Deal" peace-making. Liberal peace is still the best variety, if rare. But Europe can still learn from Trump's willingness to shake things up and break the status quo. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Reposted by Thomas de Waal
🎧 | Is Britain Becoming More Like Europe?
In this new #EuropeInsideOut episode, @tomdewaal.bsky.social, @peterkellner.bsky.social, & Anne McElvoy discuss the state of British politics and what it means for EU-UK relations.
Listen now 👉 europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...
In this new #EuropeInsideOut episode, @tomdewaal.bsky.social, @peterkellner.bsky.social, & Anne McElvoy discuss the state of British politics and what it means for EU-UK relations.
Listen now 👉 europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...
December 10, 2025 at 1:15 PM
🎧 | Is Britain Becoming More Like Europe?
In this new #EuropeInsideOut episode, @tomdewaal.bsky.social, @peterkellner.bsky.social, & Anne McElvoy discuss the state of British politics and what it means for EU-UK relations.
Listen now 👉 europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...
In this new #EuropeInsideOut episode, @tomdewaal.bsky.social, @peterkellner.bsky.social, & Anne McElvoy discuss the state of British politics and what it means for EU-UK relations.
Listen now 👉 europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Should Europe be negotiating directly with Russia? Seven scholars respond to our latest @carnegieeurope.bsky.social (deliberately provocative) question
Should Europe be negotiating directly with Russia? Seven scholars respond to our latest @carnegieeurope.bsky.social (deliberately provocative) question
Taking the Pulse: Should Europe Negotiate with Russia?
By negotiating directly with the Kremlin, the Trump administration has broken the taboo on diplomatic contacts with Russia. With Ukrainian and European security at stake, is it time for Brussels to op...
carnegieendowment.org
December 5, 2025 at 9:32 AM
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Should Europe be negotiating directly with Russia? Seven scholars respond to our latest @carnegieeurope.bsky.social (deliberately provocative) question
Should Europe be negotiating directly with Russia? Seven scholars respond to our latest @carnegieeurope.bsky.social (deliberately provocative) question
Armenia's election, like it or not, is being fought by outside actors as well. Russia and parts of the US diaspora have a new candidate to unseat Nikol Pashinyan. Pashinyan needs help to demonstrate progress in his Real Armenia agenda. My latest for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social
Ahead of the 2026 Armenian election, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan faces fierce opposition from Russia and the diaspora.
He will need the help of Europe, the United States, and regional neighbours to advance his foreign policy, writes @tomdewaal.bsky.social
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
He will need the help of Europe, the United States, and regional neighbours to advance his foreign policy, writes @tomdewaal.bsky.social
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Armenia's Election Is a Foreign Affair
As the 2026 Armenian election approaches, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is facing fierce opposition from both Russia and the diaspora. He will need the help of Europe, the United States, and regional...
carnegieendowment.org
November 13, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Armenia's election, like it or not, is being fought by outside actors as well. Russia and parts of the US diaspora have a new candidate to unseat Nikol Pashinyan. Pashinyan needs help to demonstrate progress in his Real Armenia agenda. My latest for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social
A great line-up of experts, ahead of @cop30brazil.bsky.social, to consider if Europe still has a leadership role on climate change. Yes, it does, some say, it never had one, others contend!
❔| #TTP: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change? ➡️
COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to climate action.
Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain a leading role?
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to climate action.
Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain a leading role?
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Taking the Pulse: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change?
COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to energy transition and ecological protection. Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain its role as a d...
carnegieendowment.org
November 6, 2025 at 2:20 PM
A great line-up of experts, ahead of @cop30brazil.bsky.social, to consider if Europe still has a leadership role on climate change. Yes, it does, some say, it never had one, others contend!
Reposted by Thomas de Waal
❔| #TTP: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change? ➡️
COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to climate action.
Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain a leading role?
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to climate action.
Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain a leading role?
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Taking the Pulse: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change?
COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to energy transition and ecological protection. Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain its role as a d...
carnegieendowment.org
November 6, 2025 at 1:25 PM
❔| #TTP: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change? ➡️
COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to climate action.
Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain a leading role?
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to climate action.
Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain a leading role?
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Europe is still struggling to cope with the second Trump presidency, writes Stefan Lehne for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social Echoing St Augustine, the message is “Lord, make us autonomous, but not just yet!” But the time to act is now. A great read. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Can the EU Meet the Trump Moment?
The second term of U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing Europeans to strengthen their capacity for collective action. But their biggest challenge comes from within: U.S.-backed radical-right parties...
carnegieendowment.org
November 4, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Europe is still struggling to cope with the second Trump presidency, writes Stefan Lehne for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social Echoing St Augustine, the message is “Lord, make us autonomous, but not just yet!” But the time to act is now. A great read. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Reposted by Thomas de Waal
How did the White House end up brokering a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
In a new article for @foreignaffairs.com, Senior Fellow Thomas de Waal unravels how a shared rejection of Russian dominance in the South Caucasus drove both parties down "an unlikely road to peace."
In a new article for @foreignaffairs.com, Senior Fellow Thomas de Waal unravels how a shared rejection of Russian dominance in the South Caucasus drove both parties down "an unlikely road to peace."
Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...
An Unlikely Road to Peace in the South Caucasus
How common cause against Russia enabled an American deal.
www.foreignaffairs.com
September 23, 2025 at 3:15 PM
How did the White House end up brokering a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
In a new article for @foreignaffairs.com, Senior Fellow Thomas de Waal unravels how a shared rejection of Russian dominance in the South Caucasus drove both parties down "an unlikely road to peace."
In a new article for @foreignaffairs.com, Senior Fellow Thomas de Waal unravels how a shared rejection of Russian dominance in the South Caucasus drove both parties down "an unlikely road to peace."
Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...
An Unlikely Road to Peace in the South Caucasus
How common cause against Russia enabled an American deal.
www.foreignaffairs.com
September 22, 2025 at 8:33 AM
Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...
I was very glad of the opportunity to have a substantial conversation with @neweasterneurope.eu on the Trump deal with Armenia and Azerbaijan talkeasterneurope.eu/episodes/epi...
Episode 235: Behind the peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan
In this episode, Alexandra and Adam start off with some discussion on the news, including concerns over the upcoming Russia/Belarus Zapad 2025 militar...
talkeasterneurope.eu
September 16, 2025 at 1:51 PM
I was very glad of the opportunity to have a substantial conversation with @neweasterneurope.eu on the Trump deal with Armenia and Azerbaijan talkeasterneurope.eu/episodes/epi...
Reposted by Thomas de Waal
Ivanishvili has created "an illiberal and anti-European system which leaves no political space for either party opponents or civil society activists. Currently, almost all of Georgia’s major opposition party leaders are in prison. We call it a quasi-dictatorship."
Some details to quibble with but the main points are very solid -- GD has the bayonets but in the end will struggle to sit on them.
Stephen Jones & Gabriel Chubinidze on why Ivanishvili's rule may well crumble.
cacianalyst.org/publications...
Stephen Jones & Gabriel Chubinidze on why Ivanishvili's rule may well crumble.
cacianalyst.org/publications...
September 16, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Ivanishvili has created "an illiberal and anti-European system which leaves no political space for either party opponents or civil society activists. Currently, almost all of Georgia’s major opposition party leaders are in prison. We call it a quasi-dictatorship."
Reposted by Thomas de Waal
Check out the latest episode of Talk Eastern Europe!
Listen on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
talkeasterneurope.eu/episodes/epi...
Listen on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
talkeasterneurope.eu/episodes/epi...
Episode 235: Behind the peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan
In this episode, Alexandra and Adam start off with some discussion on the news, including concerns over the upcoming Russia/Belarus Zapad 2025 militar...
talkeasterneurope.eu
September 15, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Check out the latest episode of Talk Eastern Europe!
Listen on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
talkeasterneurope.eu/episodes/epi...
Listen on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
talkeasterneurope.eu/episodes/epi...
On #Georgia, its rapid descent into authoritarian rule and the EU's struggle to respond. My piece today for Carnegie, with advice for Brussels: don't punish ordinary people by cancelling visa liberalization @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Time for EU Decisions on Georgia
Since last year’s election, Georgia’s ruling party has rolled back democracy and sabotaged the country’s EU accession process. To avoid penalizing pro-European citizens, the union and its member state...
carnegieendowment.org
September 4, 2025 at 1:00 PM
On #Georgia, its rapid descent into authoritarian rule and the EU's struggle to respond. My piece today for Carnegie, with advice for Brussels: don't punish ordinary people by cancelling visa liberalization @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...