Charly Salonius-Pasternak
@charlyjsp.bsky.social
Geopolitics analysis & advisory at Nordic West Office (CEO): US FP; transatlantic relations; Nordic defence; Finland; Tech & society.
‘Alumni of’ @fiia.fi, Wesleyan Univ, FDF J5, CCW at Oxford. Thousands of media interviews over the years. Capt (res)
‘Alumni of’ @fiia.fi, Wesleyan Univ, FDF J5, CCW at Oxford. Thousands of media interviews over the years. Capt (res)
Pinned
Tuntematon tulevaisuus - Tammi
Keskusteluja globaalin turvallisuuden murroksesta Euroopan turvallisuuden yhdestoista hetki. Tutkija Charly Salonius-Pasternak kartoittaa kansainvälistä turvallisuustilannetta huippuasiantuntijoiden k...
www.tammi.fi
Miten 15 ihmistä joilla parinsadan vuoden kokemus ulko- ja turposta hahmottaa maailmaa, historiaa ja tuntematonta tulevaisuutta?
Tämä kirja (+äänikirja) avaa sitä keskustelujen muodossa; lue pari tai koko kirja - takaan uusia näkökulmia.
www.tammi.fi/kirjat/tunte...
Tämä kirja (+äänikirja) avaa sitä keskustelujen muodossa; lue pari tai koko kirja - takaan uusia näkökulmia.
www.tammi.fi/kirjat/tunte...
Reposted by Charly Salonius-Pasternak
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 9:26 AM
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
As a reservist in a country allied with the United States (Finland), I have questions, based on this:
1) do I need to be concerned that US soldiers are unaware of "rules of war"? (incl UCMJ)
2) will they follow ROEs agreed to with Allies, or go with US ones (say in operations in Finland)?
1) do I need to be concerned that US soldiers are unaware of "rules of war"? (incl UCMJ)
2) will they follow ROEs agreed to with Allies, or go with US ones (say in operations in Finland)?
BLITZER: I want to be precise. Should members of the US military obey clearly illegal orders?
McCLAIN: You're asking an enlisted person for their opinion on what they think is legal. That's a pretty slippery slope. Follow your commander in chief. That's the oath that you took
(Not a no!)
McCLAIN: You're asking an enlisted person for their opinion on what they think is legal. That's a pretty slippery slope. Follow your commander in chief. That's the oath that you took
(Not a no!)
November 24, 2025 at 8:12 PM
As a reservist in a country allied with the United States (Finland), I have questions, based on this:
1) do I need to be concerned that US soldiers are unaware of "rules of war"? (incl UCMJ)
2) will they follow ROEs agreed to with Allies, or go with US ones (say in operations in Finland)?
1) do I need to be concerned that US soldiers are unaware of "rules of war"? (incl UCMJ)
2) will they follow ROEs agreed to with Allies, or go with US ones (say in operations in Finland)?
Reposted by Charly Salonius-Pasternak
Just wild stuff, there have been plenty of “this is the stupidest fucking thing ever” articles but CFR and Foreign affairs running cover for this nonsense really is depressing
What’s particularly disconcerting about the Venezuela stuff is how entire parts of the foreign policy establishment are endorsing/running cover for an administration that clearly has no plan or actual strategy
I regret to inform you’ll this is not the most insane article about Venezuela today lol
November 23, 2025 at 10:08 PM
Just wild stuff, there have been plenty of “this is the stupidest fucking thing ever” articles but CFR and Foreign affairs running cover for this nonsense really is depressing
Will BigTech and their bosses one day be viewed as the heads of BigOil, who knew the negative impact their products had on humans, but not only chose to ignore it but actively work against any remedial action?
Also, I wonder why most of them don't want their kids to use their services?
Also, I wonder why most of them don't want their kids to use their services?
Meta halted internal research that purportedly showed (young) people who stopped using Facebook became less depressed and anxious, according to an unredacted legal filing released on Friday. www.cnbc.com/2025/11/23/m...
Meta halted internal research suggesting social media harm, court filing alleges
Meta is alleged to have halted internal research suggesting social media harm, according to court documents.
www.cnbc.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Will BigTech and their bosses one day be viewed as the heads of BigOil, who knew the negative impact their products had on humans, but not only chose to ignore it but actively work against any remedial action?
Also, I wonder why most of them don't want their kids to use their services?
Also, I wonder why most of them don't want their kids to use their services?
Reposted by Charly Salonius-Pasternak
We wrote a paper on Russia sanctions and Russia's import prices. Because of sanctions Russia must pay MUCH more for the sanctioned goods it buys.
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi
A thread:
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi
A thread:
Heli Simola and I wrote about the effect of sanctions on unit prices of Russia’s imports. I.e., how much does Russia have to pay more for goods EU & co have sanctioned, when it imports them from China, Türkiye and other countries?
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷
1/
www.bofit.fi/en/
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷
1/
www.bofit.fi/en/
November 24, 2025 at 9:17 AM
We wrote a paper on Russia sanctions and Russia's import prices. Because of sanctions Russia must pay MUCH more for the sanctioned goods it buys.
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi
A thread:
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi
A thread:
Pidä @laurifinest.bsky.social analyyttisestä tavasta perata VTVn (ja VMn ja poliitikkojen ja median) tapaa käsitellä asioita.
On todellakin ongelma, jos tutkimusta tekevä instanssi ei kykene "oikaisemaan itseään" - niinhän tutkimuksen pitäisi toimia.
sorsafoundation.fi/vtvn-raportt...
On todellakin ongelma, jos tutkimusta tekevä instanssi ei kykene "oikaisemaan itseään" - niinhän tutkimuksen pitäisi toimia.
sorsafoundation.fi/vtvn-raportt...
VTV:n raportti on kehno ja sen pitäisi oikaista virheensä · Kalevi Sorsa -säätiö
Verotuloja voitaisiin kerätä vuodessa yli kolme miljardia siten, että eriarvoisuus vähenee ja siirtymä fossiilittomaan talouteen etenee. Tällaisista veronkorotuksista huolimatta verotuksen taso suhtee...
sorsafoundation.fi
November 23, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Pidä @laurifinest.bsky.social analyyttisestä tavasta perata VTVn (ja VMn ja poliitikkojen ja median) tapaa käsitellä asioita.
On todellakin ongelma, jos tutkimusta tekevä instanssi ei kykene "oikaisemaan itseään" - niinhän tutkimuksen pitäisi toimia.
sorsafoundation.fi/vtvn-raportt...
On todellakin ongelma, jos tutkimusta tekevä instanssi ei kykene "oikaisemaan itseään" - niinhän tutkimuksen pitäisi toimia.
sorsafoundation.fi/vtvn-raportt...
Reposted by Charly Salonius-Pasternak
The Nordic-Baltic Joint Statement - we will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe's defence. To the Ukrainian people: you are not alone🇺🇦
November 23, 2025 at 4:26 AM
The Nordic-Baltic Joint Statement - we will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe's defence. To the Ukrainian people: you are not alone🇺🇦
Really enjoyed this, @mollymckew.bsky.social blends her deep knowledge and humour to eviscerate the "28 peace points" that Russia got US to accept.
www.greatpower.us/p/28-points-...
www.greatpower.us/p/28-points-...
28 Points Later
A definitive guide to the Russian zombie diplomacy of Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine — aka what happens when you let the Russians eat your brains
www.greatpower.us
November 22, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Really enjoyed this, @mollymckew.bsky.social blends her deep knowledge and humour to eviscerate the "28 peace points" that Russia got US to accept.
www.greatpower.us/p/28-points-...
www.greatpower.us/p/28-points-...
On kyllä melkoinen valinta YLEltä näin Slush viikkona raahata veroja kiertelevä vanhan liiton 🧸ruutuun.
Miettikää jos hän olisi toiminut kuten osa nuoremmasta start-up sukupolvesta ja käyttänyt varallisuuttaan tukemaan muita, professuureja jne? ...eikä paskoisi Suomalaisten päälle aina kun voi.
Miettikää jos hän olisi toiminut kuten osa nuoremmasta start-up sukupolvesta ja käyttänyt varallisuuttaan tukemaan muita, professuureja jne? ...eikä paskoisi Suomalaisten päälle aina kun voi.
November 22, 2025 at 1:12 PM
On kyllä melkoinen valinta YLEltä näin Slush viikkona raahata veroja kiertelevä vanhan liiton 🧸ruutuun.
Miettikää jos hän olisi toiminut kuten osa nuoremmasta start-up sukupolvesta ja käyttänyt varallisuuttaan tukemaan muita, professuureja jne? ...eikä paskoisi Suomalaisten päälle aina kun voi.
Miettikää jos hän olisi toiminut kuten osa nuoremmasta start-up sukupolvesta ja käyttänyt varallisuuttaan tukemaan muita, professuureja jne? ...eikä paskoisi Suomalaisten päälle aina kun voi.
Watching Ukraine, I cannot help but think how quickly this could be turned, if the power implicit in this video was felt by Russia and its military-political elite.
youtu.be/82S6evKfyPY?...
youtu.be/82S6evKfyPY?...
Resilient Air Power – Allies Together
YouTube video by Puolustusvoimat - Försvarsmakten - The Finnish Defence Forces
youtu.be
November 22, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Watching Ukraine, I cannot help but think how quickly this could be turned, if the power implicit in this video was felt by Russia and its military-political elite.
youtu.be/82S6evKfyPY?...
youtu.be/82S6evKfyPY?...
Yhdysvaltojen NOTAM - eli ilmoitus että Venezuelan pohjoispuolella olevaan ilmatilaan ei kannata lentää - voi olla bluffi, mutta todennäköisemmin se on askel tyhjentää ilmatila tavalla joka mahdollistaa sotilaallisen toiminnan (lue: pommitus).
Miteköhän EU ja Suomi reagoisivat moiseen?
Miteköhän EU ja Suomi reagoisivat moiseen?
November 22, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Yhdysvaltojen NOTAM - eli ilmoitus että Venezuelan pohjoispuolella olevaan ilmatilaan ei kannata lentää - voi olla bluffi, mutta todennäköisemmin se on askel tyhjentää ilmatila tavalla joka mahdollistaa sotilaallisen toiminnan (lue: pommitus).
Miteköhän EU ja Suomi reagoisivat moiseen?
Miteköhän EU ja Suomi reagoisivat moiseen?
In my book 🇫🇮 President Niinistö talked about catching himself thinking “I know I’ve heard this from elsewhere (hence sense it is ‘confirmed’) but can’t remember where…”
👇🏼 superchargers it, because your mind will tell you that other real beings en masse agree with you, even if it’s only an LLM.
👇🏼 superchargers it, because your mind will tell you that other real beings en masse agree with you, even if it’s only an LLM.
I've written about "disordered counterpublics" groups that reinforce shared delusions Here, the LLM becomes a 1 person counterpublic. It mirrors assumptions, absorbs contradictions, & provides the sense of a responsive, confirming audience.
It is the architecture of disordered discourse, automated.
It is the architecture of disordered discourse, automated.
November 20, 2025 at 10:49 AM
In my book 🇫🇮 President Niinistö talked about catching himself thinking “I know I’ve heard this from elsewhere (hence sense it is ‘confirmed’) but can’t remember where…”
👇🏼 superchargers it, because your mind will tell you that other real beings en masse agree with you, even if it’s only an LLM.
👇🏼 superchargers it, because your mind will tell you that other real beings en masse agree with you, even if it’s only an LLM.
Beyond this no photos, as 🇫🇮 Distance Technologies showed their super cool mixed-reality tech, with live demos for mil and civ markets - lots of defence primes and 🚗 manufacturers interested. It’s cool engineering - bordering on “how did they do this” kind of ‘black magic’ 💪🏼
November 20, 2025 at 8:49 AM
Beyond this no photos, as 🇫🇮 Distance Technologies showed their super cool mixed-reality tech, with live demos for mil and civ markets - lots of defence primes and 🚗 manufacturers interested. It’s cool engineering - bordering on “how did they do this” kind of ‘black magic’ 💪🏼
World’s largest tech start-up focused investor event - SLUSH is in day two.
Defence & dual-use tech is “the hot thing,” why I spoke at pre-Slush even on the topic 👇🏼.
Perfect example of need for networks, as companies & investors have to grasp Geopolitics and detailed tech + biz opportunities.
Defence & dual-use tech is “the hot thing,” why I spoke at pre-Slush even on the topic 👇🏼.
Perfect example of need for networks, as companies & investors have to grasp Geopolitics and detailed tech + biz opportunities.
November 20, 2025 at 8:22 AM
World’s largest tech start-up focused investor event - SLUSH is in day two.
Defence & dual-use tech is “the hot thing,” why I spoke at pre-Slush even on the topic 👇🏼.
Perfect example of need for networks, as companies & investors have to grasp Geopolitics and detailed tech + biz opportunities.
Defence & dual-use tech is “the hot thing,” why I spoke at pre-Slush even on the topic 👇🏼.
Perfect example of need for networks, as companies & investors have to grasp Geopolitics and detailed tech + biz opportunities.
Reposted by Charly Salonius-Pasternak
Reposted by Charly Salonius-Pasternak
As an author whose work was part of the training data, all I have to say is--sucks for them.
AI advocates have warned that if every author in the class action filed a claim, it would "financially ruin" the entire industry.
Authors celebrate “historic” settlement coming soon in Anthropic class action
Advocates fear such settlements will “financially ruin” the AI industry.
arstechnica.com
November 18, 2025 at 11:12 AM
As an author whose work was part of the training data, all I have to say is--sucks for them.
Reposted by Charly Salonius-Pasternak
20 strikes. 80 dead. Well past the 60 days war powers act rule. And no end in sight/any effort to constrain it.
www.cnn.com/2025/11/13/p...
www.cnn.com/2025/11/13/p...
US military carried out 20th strike on alleged drug boats, killing 4, official says | CNN Politics
The Pentagon conducted its 20th strike on an alleged drug trafficking boat earlier this week, a Pentagon official said Thursday.
www.cnn.com
November 13, 2025 at 11:14 PM
20 strikes. 80 dead. Well past the 60 days war powers act rule. And no end in sight/any effort to constrain it.
www.cnn.com/2025/11/13/p...
www.cnn.com/2025/11/13/p...
This my friends is why you can’t use an LLM for any number of things that require factual accuracy 👇🏼
tldr: according to Grok Donald Trump won the 2020 election
tldr: according to Grok Donald Trump won the 2020 election
November 13, 2025 at 5:39 AM
This my friends is why you can’t use an LLM for any number of things that require factual accuracy 👇🏼
tldr: according to Grok Donald Trump won the 2020 election
tldr: according to Grok Donald Trump won the 2020 election
Reposted by Charly Salonius-Pasternak
🚨OpenAI’s new “safer” version of ChatGPT actually allows more harm.
We tested GPT-5 and GPT-4o to see if GPT-5 was safer & found that actually GPT-5 gave MORE harmful responses.
Read our new report ⤵️
https://bit.ly/3JgW9OP
We tested GPT-5 and GPT-4o to see if GPT-5 was safer & found that actually GPT-5 gave MORE harmful responses.
Read our new report ⤵️
https://bit.ly/3JgW9OP
November 12, 2025 at 7:45 PM
🚨OpenAI’s new “safer” version of ChatGPT actually allows more harm.
We tested GPT-5 and GPT-4o to see if GPT-5 was safer & found that actually GPT-5 gave MORE harmful responses.
Read our new report ⤵️
https://bit.ly/3JgW9OP
We tested GPT-5 and GPT-4o to see if GPT-5 was safer & found that actually GPT-5 gave MORE harmful responses.
Read our new report ⤵️
https://bit.ly/3JgW9OP
Seems like the UK thinks US strikes on boats in the Caribbean are not legitimate and has thus stopped intelligence sharing re that file. Good.
Unlikely to change the policy & impact illegal actions but a much needed nudge by a close (5👀) ally.
Unlikely to change the policy & impact illegal actions but a much needed nudge by a close (5👀) ally.
Huge. And I am reminded of an excellent paper from years ago by Ashley Deeks on “Peer Constraints” — papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Exclusive: UK suspends some intelligence sharing with US over boat strike concerns in major break | CNN Politics
The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes ...
www.cnn.com
November 11, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Seems like the UK thinks US strikes on boats in the Caribbean are not legitimate and has thus stopped intelligence sharing re that file. Good.
Unlikely to change the policy & impact illegal actions but a much needed nudge by a close (5👀) ally.
Unlikely to change the policy & impact illegal actions but a much needed nudge by a close (5👀) ally.
Reposted by Charly Salonius-Pasternak
AI is going to consume 13-15% of the nation's energy in 3-5 years. For what? For what?
AI Data Center Mania is 'Epic Bubble,' Says Brad Conger
YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts
www.youtube.com
November 11, 2025 at 4:03 PM
AI is going to consume 13-15% of the nation's energy in 3-5 years. For what? For what?
Reposted by Charly Salonius-Pasternak
Minua kuvaus tapahtumista huolestuttaa entisestään. VM on tehnyt erittäin merkittävästi julkista taloutta heikentävän esityksen, vaikka sen kasvuvaikutuksista ei ole ollut juuri mitään uskottavaa näyttöä. Tästäkään huolimatta VM:n asemaa ei kyseenalaisteta millään tavalla. 6/6
October 29, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Minua kuvaus tapahtumista huolestuttaa entisestään. VM on tehnyt erittäin merkittävästi julkista taloutta heikentävän esityksen, vaikka sen kasvuvaikutuksista ei ole ollut juuri mitään uskottavaa näyttöä. Tästäkään huolimatta VM:n asemaa ei kyseenalaisteta millään tavalla. 6/6
Reposted by Charly Salonius-Pasternak
Quick thread on the BBC and the political and societal significance of recent developments:
One of the main reasons the UK has historically been so much less polarised than the US, is that Britain has a shared source of information, consumed and trusted by most people regardless of their politics.
One of the main reasons the UK has historically been so much less polarised than the US, is that Britain has a shared source of information, consumed and trusted by most people regardless of their politics.
November 10, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Quick thread on the BBC and the political and societal significance of recent developments:
One of the main reasons the UK has historically been so much less polarised than the US, is that Britain has a shared source of information, consumed and trusted by most people regardless of their politics.
One of the main reasons the UK has historically been so much less polarised than the US, is that Britain has a shared source of information, consumed and trusted by most people regardless of their politics.
Excellent paper with practical policy suggestions.
In the case of Finland, dearly hope that officialdom and politicians would start to build what's suggested here, it's very much needed.
icds.ee/en/beyond-de...
In the case of Finland, dearly hope that officialdom and politicians would start to build what's suggested here, it's very much needed.
icds.ee/en/beyond-de...
Beyond Defence: A Proactive Strategy for the West in the Information Domain - International Centre for Defence and Security
The information war is not a future threat—it is the defining battlefield of the present.
icds.ee
November 10, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Excellent paper with practical policy suggestions.
In the case of Finland, dearly hope that officialdom and politicians would start to build what's suggested here, it's very much needed.
icds.ee/en/beyond-de...
In the case of Finland, dearly hope that officialdom and politicians would start to build what's suggested here, it's very much needed.
icds.ee/en/beyond-de...
Reposted by Charly Salonius-Pasternak
Wow: Per Hamdi's legal team, his only charge was a visa overstay — after Trump revoked his visa.
Despite DHS tweeting that Hamdi supported terrorism, they never charged him with any criminality.
In other words: Trump revoked a journalist's visa, so agents could arrest him for overstaying his visa.
Despite DHS tweeting that Hamdi supported terrorism, they never charged him with any criminality.
In other words: Trump revoked a journalist's visa, so agents could arrest him for overstaying his visa.
NEW: British journalist Sami Hamdi is being released from US detention.
Trump administration agents detained him two weeks ago at the San Francisco airport — hours after he addressed an event, where he urged US leaders to take an “America First” approach rather than “Israel First.”
Trump administration agents detained him two weeks ago at the San Francisco airport — hours after he addressed an event, where he urged US leaders to take an “America First” approach rather than “Israel First.”
November 10, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Wow: Per Hamdi's legal team, his only charge was a visa overstay — after Trump revoked his visa.
Despite DHS tweeting that Hamdi supported terrorism, they never charged him with any criminality.
In other words: Trump revoked a journalist's visa, so agents could arrest him for overstaying his visa.
Despite DHS tweeting that Hamdi supported terrorism, they never charged him with any criminality.
In other words: Trump revoked a journalist's visa, so agents could arrest him for overstaying his visa.