@chipusher.bsky.social
Sr. Dir. for Intel at Special Competitive Studies Project. Retired CIA SIS officer. Duke & National War College grad.
The question has shifted from whether the Islamic Republic can survive to what follows its collapse.
https://bit.ly/49HfrpH
https://bit.ly/49HfrpH
Subscriptions | Substack
open.substack.com
January 15, 2026 at 9:11 PM
The question has shifted from whether the Islamic Republic can survive to what follows its collapse.
https://bit.ly/49HfrpH
https://bit.ly/49HfrpH
The question has shifted from whether the Islamic Republic can survive to what follows its collapse.
bit.ly/49HfrpH
bit.ly/49HfrpH
After the Fall: Who Would Lead a Post-Islamic Republic Iran?
The protests that erupted from Tehran’s Grand Bazaar on December 28, 2025, have evolved into the largest challenge to the Islamic Republic since its founding in 1979.
bit.ly
January 15, 2026 at 4:34 PM
The question has shifted from whether the Islamic Republic can survive to what follows its collapse.
bit.ly/49HfrpH
bit.ly/49HfrpH
I shared my thoughts on the protests in Iran with the great #PeterMartin from Bloomberg. You can check out the article here (paywalled). #Iran www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Iran Edges Closer to a Revolution That Would Reshape the World
If the uprising succeeds in toppling the Islamic Republic, it would upend global geopolitics and energy markets — with the risk of widespread chaos.
www.bloomberg.com
January 14, 2026 at 1:09 AM
I shared my thoughts on the protests in Iran with the great #PeterMartin from Bloomberg. You can check out the article here (paywalled). #Iran www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
7/7 - Bottom line: The people in Iran's streets will determine the outcome. Great powers can shape the environment but can't control the decision. After 40+ years of "the regime is about to fall" predictions, humility is warranted. But this time does feel different.
Substack: https://bit.ly/49w9fRi
Substack: https://bit.ly/49w9fRi
The World Watches Tehran: How Global Powers Are Calculating Their Next Moves on Iran
As regime-threatening protests engulf Iran, the great powers are recalibrating—but their interests diverge sharply. A strategic assessment.
bit.ly
January 14, 2026 at 1:01 AM
7/7 - Bottom line: The people in Iran's streets will determine the outcome. Great powers can shape the environment but can't control the decision. After 40+ years of "the regime is about to fall" predictions, humility is warranted. But this time does feel different.
Substack: https://bit.ly/49w9fRi
Substack: https://bit.ly/49w9fRi
6/7 - SECOND-ORDER EFFECTS worth watching:
Oil toward $150/bbl if Hormuz threatened
China's energy security scramble
Refugee flows that would dwarf Syria
Nuclear materials in a collapsing state
Regional proxies seeking new patrons
Oil toward $150/bbl if Hormuz threatened
China's energy security scramble
Refugee flows that would dwarf Syria
Nuclear materials in a collapsing state
Regional proxies seeking new patrons
January 14, 2026 at 1:00 AM
6/7 - SECOND-ORDER EFFECTS worth watching:
Oil toward $150/bbl if Hormuz threatened
China's energy security scramble
Refugee flows that would dwarf Syria
Nuclear materials in a collapsing state
Regional proxies seeking new patrons
Oil toward $150/bbl if Hormuz threatened
China's energy security scramble
Refugee flows that would dwarf Syria
Nuclear materials in a collapsing state
Regional proxies seeking new patrons
5/7 - THE U.S.: Trump threatens strikes but the options being briefed are "largely non-kinetic"—cyber, sanctions, Starlink. The Maduro capture showed willingness to act. But Iran isn't Venezuela. 2 million bpd of oil. Thousands of missiles. No good endgame scenarios.
January 14, 2026 at 12:58 AM
5/7 - THE U.S.: Trump threatens strikes but the options being briefed are "largely non-kinetic"—cyber, sanctions, Starlink. The Maduro capture showed willingness to act. But Iran isn't Venezuela. 2 million bpd of oil. Thousands of missiles. No good endgame scenarios.
4/7 - GULF STATES: Deafening silence from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. They'd love to see the Islamic Republic fall—but they share a maritime border with Iran and 21% of global oil transits Hormuz. Chaos next door isn't obviously better than a weakened enemy.
January 14, 2026 at 12:57 AM
4/7 - GULF STATES: Deafening silence from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. They'd love to see the Islamic Republic fall—but they share a maritime border with Iran and 21% of global oil transits Hormuz. Chaos next door isn't obviously better than a weakened enemy.
3/7 - RUSSIA: Moscow is shipping Mi-28 helicopters to Iran while preparing asylum for Khamenei. Classic Putin: loyal enough to maintain the relationship if the regime survives, pragmatic enough to cut losses if it doesn't. Syria taught the Kremlin its limits.
January 14, 2026 at 12:56 AM
3/7 - RUSSIA: Moscow is shipping Mi-28 helicopters to Iran while preparing asylum for Khamenei. Classic Putin: loyal enough to maintain the relationship if the regime survives, pragmatic enough to cut losses if it doesn't. Syria taught the Kremlin its limits.
2/7 - CHINA: "Partnership, not alliance." That phrase from Beijing's spokesman is doing a lot of work. Translation: We'll buy your cheap oil, but we won't defend you. Tehran learned this during the June war. No Chinese air defense systems arrived when Israeli missiles did.
January 14, 2026 at 12:55 AM
2/7 - CHINA: "Partnership, not alliance." That phrase from Beijing's spokesman is doing a lot of work. Translation: We'll buy your cheap oil, but we won't defend you. Tehran learned this during the June war. No Chinese air defense systems arrived when Israeli missiles did.
NEW: Iran is facing its most serious crisis since 1979. I spent 20+ years at CIA working Iran/Near East. What strikes me most isn't the protests—it's how the great powers are calculating their responses. A thread on what they see, and what they're hiding. 🧵 1/7
https://bit.ly/49w9fRi
https://bit.ly/49w9fRi
The World Watches Tehran: How Global Powers Are Calculating Their Next Moves on Iran
As regime-threatening protests engulf Iran, the great powers are recalibrating—but their interests diverge sharply. A strategic assessment.
open.substack.com
January 14, 2026 at 12:53 AM
NEW: Iran is facing its most serious crisis since 1979. I spent 20+ years at CIA working Iran/Near East. What strikes me most isn't the protests—it's how the great powers are calculating their responses. A thread on what they see, and what they're hiding. 🧵 1/7
https://bit.ly/49w9fRi
https://bit.ly/49w9fRi
Kudos to @wsj.com for this. The crackdown by ICE & CPB suffers from systematic failure. Both agencies being tasked with missions outside their expertise, reckless recruitment of sub-par agents, inadequate training, hi pressure for "results." They are a danger not a help.
www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
Videos Show How ICE Vehicle Stops Can Escalate to Shootings
A WSJ visual investigation found that the Minneapolis ICE killing is one of 13 incidents where federal immigration agents have used deadly force against civilians in vehicles since July.
www.wsj.com
January 11, 2026 at 12:35 PM
Kudos to @wsj.com for this. The crackdown by ICE & CPB suffers from systematic failure. Both agencies being tasked with missions outside their expertise, reckless recruitment of sub-par agents, inadequate training, hi pressure for "results." They are a danger not a help.
www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
I like this line from @fareedzakaria.bsky.social : "When the U.S. acts like a rulemaker rather than a shakedown artist, it buys something more valuable than fear: consent. Consent is what turns hegemony into leadership"
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | Trump is teaching the world to fear America
Goodwill built over decades is now being squandered.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 11, 2026 at 11:36 AM
I like this line from @fareedzakaria.bsky.social : "When the U.S. acts like a rulemaker rather than a shakedown artist, it buys something more valuable than fear: consent. Consent is what turns hegemony into leadership"
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
For my initial thoughts on the current situation inside Iran.
Check out my post on LinkedIn https://bit.ly/4qQS0Bq.
Check out my post on LinkedIn https://bit.ly/4qQS0Bq.
My initial take on the protests in Iran. In sum, I think the regime is trying (and so far failing) to navigate its deepest and most volatile crisis since the Iran-Iraq War. The… | Wil...
My initial take on the current round of protests in Iran. In sum, I think the regime is trying (and so far failing) to navigate its deepest and most volatile crisis since the Iran-Iraq War. The drivin...
www.linkedin.com
January 11, 2026 at 12:55 AM
For my initial thoughts on the current situation inside Iran.
Check out my post on LinkedIn https://bit.ly/4qQS0Bq.
Check out my post on LinkedIn https://bit.ly/4qQS0Bq.
How ‘Turn and Burn’ Immigration Operations Unleash Chaos — and Sweep up U.S. Citizens www.nytimes.com/video/us/100...
Outrageous behavior by CBP in these so-called “Turn and Burn” cosplay operations.
Outrageous behavior by CBP in these so-called “Turn and Burn” cosplay operations.
Video: How ‘Turn and Burn’ Immigration Operations Unleash Chaos — and Sweep up U.S. Citizens
A video analysis of one early morning raid in Los Angeles revealed the vast web of consequences brought by new aggressive Border Patrol tactics.
www.nytimes.com
December 21, 2025 at 1:48 AM
How ‘Turn and Burn’ Immigration Operations Unleash Chaos — and Sweep up U.S. Citizens www.nytimes.com/video/us/100...
Outrageous behavior by CBP in these so-called “Turn and Burn” cosplay operations.
Outrageous behavior by CBP in these so-called “Turn and Burn” cosplay operations.
Israel and the US just improved their negotiating position immensely. How much depends on whether Israel struck Fordow, and how effectively.
June 13, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Israel and the US just improved their negotiating position immensely. How much depends on whether Israel struck Fordow, and how effectively.
The Supreme Leader no doubt is in hiding but he probably knows was kept alive only because Bibi allowed it.
June 13, 2025 at 3:12 PM
The Supreme Leader no doubt is in hiding but he probably knows was kept alive only because Bibi allowed it.
Iran has already started launching long range drones and will probably attempt to launch missiles, if they retained the capacity to do so. But I suspect their response will be tempered by their calculations of what Israel still holds at risk.
June 13, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Iran has already started launching long range drones and will probably attempt to launch missiles, if they retained the capacity to do so. But I suspect their response will be tempered by their calculations of what Israel still holds at risk.
While the impact of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is unclear (Natanz got leveled according to imagery but we don’t know yet whether Fordow was struck or how badly), the impact of Iran’s leadership will be profound. Almost the entire command structure of themMilitary and IRGC were neutralized.
June 13, 2025 at 3:09 PM
While the impact of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is unclear (Natanz got leveled according to imagery but we don’t know yet whether Fordow was struck or how badly), the impact of Iran’s leadership will be profound. Almost the entire command structure of themMilitary and IRGC were neutralized.
What Israel accomplished was an incredible feat of intelligence-led combined arms. Mossad had teams on the ground (probably for months) developing targets’ pattern-of-life and attack vectors. Strikes were carried out using manned aircraft, drones, and probably other means.
June 13, 2025 at 3:07 PM
What Israel accomplished was an incredible feat of intelligence-led combined arms. Mossad had teams on the ground (probably for months) developing targets’ pattern-of-life and attack vectors. Strikes were carried out using manned aircraft, drones, and probably other means.
Why Al-Assad Fell www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/o...
Opinion | Why Al-Assad Fell
Understanding the factors that led to the Syrian regime’s collapse is key to putting the pieces of the country back together.
www.nytimes.com
December 10, 2024 at 1:42 PM
Why Al-Assad Fell www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/o...