5/7 - THE U.S.: Trump threatens strikes but the options being briefed are "largely non-kinetic"—cyber, sanctions, Starlink. The Maduro capture showed willingness to act. But Iran isn't Venezuela. 2 million bpd of oil. Thousands of missiles. No good endgame scenarios.

4/7 - GULF STATES: Deafening silence from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. They'd love to see the Islamic Republic fall—but they share a maritime border with Iran and 21% of global oil transits Hormuz. Chaos next door isn't obviously better than a weakened enemy.

3/7 - RUSSIA: Moscow is shipping Mi-28 helicopters to Iran while preparing asylum for Khamenei. Classic Putin: loyal enough to maintain the relationship if the regime survives, pragmatic enough to cut losses if it doesn't. Syria taught the Kremlin its limits.

2/7 - CHINA: "Partnership, not alliance." That phrase from Beijing's spokesman is doing a lot of work. Translation: We'll buy your cheap oil, but we won't defend you. Tehran learned this during the June war. No Chinese air defense systems arrived when Israeli missiles did.

NEW: Iran is facing its most serious crisis since 1979. I spent 20+ years at CIA working Iran/Near East. What strikes me most isn't the protests—it's how the great powers are calculating their responses. A thread on what they see, and what they're hiding. 🧵 1/7
https://bit.ly/49w9fRi

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Kudos to @wsj.com for this. The crackdown by ICE & CPB suffers from systematic failure. Both agencies being tasked with missions outside their expertise, reckless recruitment of sub-par agents, inadequate training, hi pressure for "results." They are a danger not a help.
www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...

I like this line from @fareedzakaria.bsky.social : "When the U.S. acts like a rulemaker rather than a shakedown artist, it buys something more valuable than fear: consent. Consent is what turns hegemony into leadership"
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

For my initial thoughts on the current situation inside Iran.
Check out my post on LinkedIn https://bit.ly/4qQS0Bq.

How ‘Turn and Burn’ Immigration Operations Unleash Chaos — and Sweep up U.S. Citizens www.nytimes.com/video/us/100...

Outrageous behavior by CBP in these so-called “Turn and Burn” cosplay operations.

Israel and the US just improved their negotiating position immensely. How much depends on whether Israel struck Fordow, and how effectively.

The Supreme Leader no doubt is in hiding but he probably knows was kept alive only because Bibi allowed it.

Iran has already started launching long range drones and will probably attempt to launch missiles, if they retained the capacity to do so. But I suspect their response will be tempered by their calculations of what Israel still holds at risk.

While the impact of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is unclear (Natanz got leveled according to imagery but we don’t know yet whether Fordow was struck or how badly), the impact of Iran’s leadership will be profound. Almost the entire command structure of themMilitary and IRGC were neutralized.

What Israel accomplished was an incredible feat of intelligence-led combined arms. Mossad had teams on the ground (probably for months) developing targets’ pattern-of-life and attack vectors. Strikes were carried out using manned aircraft, drones, and probably other means.

Why Al-Assad Fell www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/o...