CICERO Center for International Climate Research
@cicero.oslo.no
CICERO Center for International Climate Research is Norway’s foremost institute for interdisciplinary climate research.
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Oh, looks like we should pull out the research we did 20 years ago on the importance of multi-regional models...
(yes, yes, these things need to be repeated I guess, but this one should have been settled decades ago)
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
(yes, yes, these things need to be repeated I guess, but this one should have been settled decades ago)
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The importance of multiregional accounting for corporate carbon emissions - Nature Communications
This paper uses a multi-region model to show that single-region models used by thousands of companies to estimate CO2 emissions related to goods they purchase may drastically underestimate and misiden...
www.nature.com
January 21, 2026 at 12:27 PM
Oh, looks like we should pull out the research we did 20 years ago on the importance of multi-regional models...
(yes, yes, these things need to be repeated I guess, but this one should have been settled decades ago)
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
(yes, yes, these things need to be repeated I guess, but this one should have been settled decades ago)
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
How are scenarios used?
Scenarios are used for contrasting purposes but are often actively interpreted and processed by informed users who are aware of different scenarios’ strengths, limitations and uncertainties.
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
1/
Scenarios are used for contrasting purposes but are often actively interpreted and processed by informed users who are aware of different scenarios’ strengths, limitations and uncertainties.
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
1/
Analysing the use of emissions scenarios in practice - npj Climate Action
npj Climate Action - Analysing the use of emissions scenarios in practice
www.nature.com
January 21, 2026 at 1:12 PM
How are scenarios used?
Scenarios are used for contrasting purposes but are often actively interpreted and processed by informed users who are aware of different scenarios’ strengths, limitations and uncertainties.
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
1/
Scenarios are used for contrasting purposes but are often actively interpreted and processed by informed users who are aware of different scenarios’ strengths, limitations and uncertainties.
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
1/
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
If the last decade has taught Europe anything, it should be that reliance on fossil fuel imports is a strategic liability which will be exploited.
Climate aside, decarbonisation is security.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Climate aside, decarbonisation is security.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Trump has growing stranglehold over EU and UK energy supply, study shows
European countries now reliant on US liquified natural gas shipments, creating risk of higher bills amid recent tensions
www.theguardian.com
January 21, 2026 at 9:58 AM
If the last decade has taught Europe anything, it should be that reliance on fossil fuel imports is a strategic liability which will be exploited.
Climate aside, decarbonisation is security.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Climate aside, decarbonisation is security.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Flere land har nedadgående utslipp, men det finnes ingen garantier for at trenden vil fortsette. Spesielt i USA er utviklingen usikker. @robbieandrew.bsky.social
cicero.oslo.no/no/artikler/...
cicero.oslo.no/no/artikler/...
Mange land kutter i utslipp. Vil de fortsette?
Flere land har nedadgående utslipp, men det finnes ingen garantier for at trenden vil fortsette. Spesielt i USA er utviklingen usikker.
cicero.oslo.no
January 19, 2026 at 2:02 PM
Flere land har nedadgående utslipp, men det finnes ingen garantier for at trenden vil fortsette. Spesielt i USA er utviklingen usikker. @robbieandrew.bsky.social
cicero.oslo.no/no/artikler/...
cicero.oslo.no/no/artikler/...
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
The reduction in oil from 2019 to 2050 varies a lot depending on model, scenario, & climate outcome.
There is a lot of overlap, despite a shifting distribution.
A level of oil in 2050 could be consistent with 1.5°C or 2.5°C, but the rest of the energy system counterbalances.
1/
There is a lot of overlap, despite a shifting distribution.
A level of oil in 2050 could be consistent with 1.5°C or 2.5°C, but the rest of the energy system counterbalances.
1/
January 19, 2026 at 12:23 PM
The reduction in oil from 2019 to 2050 varies a lot depending on model, scenario, & climate outcome.
There is a lot of overlap, despite a shifting distribution.
A level of oil in 2050 could be consistent with 1.5°C or 2.5°C, but the rest of the energy system counterbalances.
1/
There is a lot of overlap, despite a shifting distribution.
A level of oil in 2050 could be consistent with 1.5°C or 2.5°C, but the rest of the energy system counterbalances.
1/
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
A rare bit of good news from the US. House republicans seem to be pushing back against Trump's huge proposed cuts to science.
NSF, NASA, NOAA - all look set to be near flat, or - for DOE - even a slight increase.
www.economist.com/united-state...
NSF, NASA, NOAA - all look set to be near flat, or - for DOE - even a slight increase.
www.economist.com/united-state...
January 16, 2026 at 11:10 PM
A rare bit of good news from the US. House republicans seem to be pushing back against Trump's huge proposed cuts to science.
NSF, NASA, NOAA - all look set to be near flat, or - for DOE - even a slight increase.
www.economist.com/united-state...
NSF, NASA, NOAA - all look set to be near flat, or - for DOE - even a slight increase.
www.economist.com/united-state...
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
55 years ago. The US introducing significantly strongly regulations on air pollution led to big changes in the cement industry. This from the 1970 minerals yearbook.
January 17, 2026 at 8:15 AM
55 years ago. The US introducing significantly strongly regulations on air pollution led to big changes in the cement industry. This from the 1970 minerals yearbook.
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Back in 2008, the EIA believed that natural gas production would be flat through 2030. Then came fracking.
January 16, 2026 at 6:23 PM
Back in 2008, the EIA believed that natural gas production would be flat through 2030. Then came fracking.
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
There was a record increase in CO2 in the atmosphere in 2024, though the size of the increase depends on the dataset.
All datasets will give a similar cumulative increase over time, as end of year affects cancel.
academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-...
1/
All datasets will give a similar cumulative increase over time, as end of year affects cancel.
academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-...
1/
January 19, 2026 at 8:02 AM
There was a record increase in CO2 in the atmosphere in 2024, though the size of the increase depends on the dataset.
All datasets will give a similar cumulative increase over time, as end of year affects cancel.
academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-...
1/
All datasets will give a similar cumulative increase over time, as end of year affects cancel.
academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-...
1/
Nye bokutgivelser denne vinteren tar et kritisk blikk på Norges energipolitikk og vår rolle som oljenasjon. Bli opplyst i vintermørket, med bøker om energi, politikk, makt og økonomi.
Klimabøker som orienterer, inspirerer og provoserer
Bli opplyst i vintermørket, med bøker om energi, politikk, makt og økonomi.
cicero.oslo.no
January 17, 2026 at 2:01 PM
Nye bokutgivelser denne vinteren tar et kritisk blikk på Norges energipolitikk og vår rolle som oljenasjon. Bli opplyst i vintermørket, med bøker om energi, politikk, makt og økonomi.
EU går inn i et år med store nye energipolitiske initiativ, de vil styrke samarbeid og tilpasse regelverk. Dette står på EUs energipolitiske agenda i 2026.
@tjevnaker.bsky.social
@tjevnaker.bsky.social
Hva skjer i EU i 2026 - med betydning for Norge?
EU går inn i et år med store nye energipolitiske initiativ, de vil styrke samarbeid og tilpasse regelverk. Dette står på EUs energipolitiske agenda i 2026.
cicero.oslo.no
January 16, 2026 at 2:01 PM
EU går inn i et år med store nye energipolitiske initiativ, de vil styrke samarbeid og tilpasse regelverk. Dette står på EUs energipolitiske agenda i 2026.
@tjevnaker.bsky.social
@tjevnaker.bsky.social
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
In Indonesia, 35% of new car sales were battery-electric models last month. Quite extraordinary. But let's see what the next few months bring.
A big surge in sales of EVs in Indonesia at the end of the year.
However, the incentives that led to this will not continue in 2026.
Fully assembled imported EVs had been exempted several important taxes if the manufacturer committed to local production.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
However, the incentives that led to this will not continue in 2026.
Fully assembled imported EVs had been exempted several important taxes if the manufacturer committed to local production.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
January 15, 2026 at 11:32 AM
In Indonesia, 35% of new car sales were battery-electric models last month. Quite extraordinary. But let's see what the next few months bring.
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Because the world is far from perfect, SRM research needs to do much better at looking non-idealized futures.
Preprint out today in ESDD.
SRM's biggest risk is us.
'Peak-shaving' is a best-case scenario, with strong governance and international cooperation.
We propose a framework for messier geoengineering futures, which look more like, you know, the news. /1
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
SRM's biggest risk is us.
'Peak-shaving' is a best-case scenario, with strong governance and international cooperation.
We propose a framework for messier geoengineering futures, which look more like, you know, the news. /1
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
Robust assessment of Solar Radiation Modification risks and uncertainties must include shocks and societal feedbacks
Abstract. Conventional climate scenarios omit fast-timescale human-system dynamics like policy rollback or economic shocks. The climate system's slow response to GHG emissions allows these `fast' ter...
egusphere.copernicus.org
January 15, 2026 at 1:33 PM
Because the world is far from perfect, SRM research needs to do much better at looking non-idealized futures.
Lavere tempo, omkamper og mer industrivennlig politikk til tross. EUs klimapolitikk holder stand også inn i 2026. Den skal sikre både konkurransekraft og energisikkerhet, forklarer CICERO-forsker Merethe Dotterud Leiren.
EU: Overlever klimapolitikken i 2026?
Lavere tempo, omkamper og mer industrivennlig politikk til tross. EUs klimapolitikk holder stand også inn i 2026.
cicero.oslo.no
January 15, 2026 at 2:02 PM
Lavere tempo, omkamper og mer industrivennlig politikk til tross. EUs klimapolitikk holder stand også inn i 2026. Den skal sikre både konkurransekraft og energisikkerhet, forklarer CICERO-forsker Merethe Dotterud Leiren.
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
While our best estimate is that US fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions went up about 2% in 2025, the EIA is currently forecasting a drop of 2.2% in 2026.
robbieandrew.github.io/USA/
robbieandrew.github.io/USA/
January 14, 2026 at 11:35 AM
While our best estimate is that US fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions went up about 2% in 2025, the EIA is currently forecasting a drop of 2.2% in 2026.
robbieandrew.github.io/USA/
robbieandrew.github.io/USA/
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
A big surge in sales of EVs in Indonesia at the end of the year.
However, the incentives that led to this will not continue in 2026.
Fully assembled imported EVs had been exempted several important taxes if the manufacturer committed to local production.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
However, the incentives that led to this will not continue in 2026.
Fully assembled imported EVs had been exempted several important taxes if the manufacturer committed to local production.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
January 15, 2026 at 8:15 AM
A big surge in sales of EVs in Indonesia at the end of the year.
However, the incentives that led to this will not continue in 2026.
Fully assembled imported EVs had been exempted several important taxes if the manufacturer committed to local production.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
However, the incentives that led to this will not continue in 2026.
Fully assembled imported EVs had been exempted several important taxes if the manufacturer committed to local production.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
– I 2026 fortsetter klimaarbeidet uten USA, verdens nest største utslippsland. Det gjør samarbeidet vanskeligere, sier CICERO-forsker Solveig Aamodt, som advarer om at de mest sårbare landene rammes hardest når klimaomstillingen går for sakte.
Klimakampen uten USA
I 2026 fortsetter klimaarbeidet uten USA, verdens nest største utslippsland. De mest sårbare landene rammes hardest når klimaomstillingen går for sakte.
cicero.oslo.no
January 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM
– I 2026 fortsetter klimaarbeidet uten USA, verdens nest største utslippsland. Det gjør samarbeidet vanskeligere, sier CICERO-forsker Solveig Aamodt, som advarer om at de mest sårbare landene rammes hardest når klimaomstillingen går for sakte.
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Denmark's December car sales data just released. Battery-electrics reached an incredible 81% in December to make up 68% for the year.
January 14, 2026 at 7:08 AM
Denmark's December car sales data just released. Battery-electrics reached an incredible 81% in December to make up 68% for the year.
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
China's December numbers are in, and battery-electric cars made up 35% in December and 33% for the year. Plug-in hybrids made up another 21% for the year for a total "new-energy" share of 54% in 2025.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
January 14, 2026 at 7:12 AM
China's December numbers are in, and battery-electric cars made up 35% in December and 33% for the year. Plug-in hybrids made up another 21% for the year for a total "new-energy" share of 54% in 2025.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Vi er ikke avhengige av fossile brensler for at økonomien vår skal vokse. Det er fullt mulig å ha vekst og samtidig redusere utslippene, som #månedensfigur fra @cicero.oslo.no viser.
January 13, 2026 at 11:36 AM
Vi er ikke avhengige av fossile brensler for at økonomien vår skal vokse. Det er fullt mulig å ha vekst og samtidig redusere utslippene, som #månedensfigur fra @cicero.oslo.no viser.
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Ronald Reagan introduced the requirement for cost-benefit analyses in 1981, which led the EPA to asses the value of human lives and health outcomes. This is about to end and that's expected to make it easier to pollute.🎁🔗
E.P.A. to Stop Considering Lives Saved When Setting Rules on Air Pollution
www.nytimes.com
January 12, 2026 at 9:04 PM
Ronald Reagan introduced the requirement for cost-benefit analyses in 1981, which led the EPA to asses the value of human lives and health outcomes. This is about to end and that's expected to make it easier to pollute.🎁🔗
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
New paper! How are emissions scenarios 📉 from the IPCC (and other sources) actually used by decision-makers? We asked them, and the results are out just in time for the holidays 🧑🎄🤶🧑🎄 (with @idasogn.bsky.social & @climansen.bsky.social)
Analysing the use of emissions scenarios in practice - npj Climate Action
npj Climate Action - Analysing the use of emissions scenarios in practice
www.nature.com
December 23, 2025 at 2:14 PM
New paper! How are emissions scenarios 📉 from the IPCC (and other sources) actually used by decision-makers? We asked them, and the results are out just in time for the holidays 🧑🎄🤶🧑🎄 (with @idasogn.bsky.social & @climansen.bsky.social)
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
And the world's first production solid-state battery comes from Finland!
“This is the moment internal combustion stops competing, and starts becoming irrelevant.”
“This is the moment internal combustion stops competing, and starts becoming irrelevant.”
World's 1st Production Solid-State Battery! - CleanTechnica
Support CleanTechnica's work through a Substack subscription or on Stripe. A small company in Finland, Donutlabs, has announced the world’s first production solid-state battery. The batteries are rate...
cleantechnica.com
January 8, 2026 at 2:21 PM
And the world's first production solid-state battery comes from Finland!
“This is the moment internal combustion stops competing, and starts becoming irrelevant.”
“This is the moment internal combustion stops competing, and starts becoming irrelevant.”
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Interesting, brief summary of the delaying tactics used by the Trump administration against anything green.
Viewpoint: US uses delays against 'green' policies | Latest Market News
President Donald Trump's administration has increasingly used regulatory delays to impede the growth of renewable energy projects, while giving fossil fuel companies years of additional time to comply...
www.argusmedia.com
January 8, 2026 at 3:01 PM
Interesting, brief summary of the delaying tactics used by the Trump administration against anything green.
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
An optimistic outlook for European energy.
"The first phase of Europe's energy transition was inflationary — capital-heavy, inefficient and politically fraught. The next phase looks different."
"The first phase of Europe's energy transition was inflationary — capital-heavy, inefficient and politically fraught. The next phase looks different."
Viewpoint: Europe’s battery-driven recovery | Latest Market News
It is easy to be pessimistic about Europe's economy. But the continent's next economic recovery may be built on something surprisingly concrete — mass deployment of renewable energy and batteries. Eur...
www.argusmedia.com
January 8, 2026 at 2:14 PM
An optimistic outlook for European energy.
"The first phase of Europe's energy transition was inflationary — capital-heavy, inefficient and politically fraught. The next phase looks different."
"The first phase of Europe's energy transition was inflationary — capital-heavy, inefficient and politically fraught. The next phase looks different."