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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 5h

Why didn't Chinese fossil CO2 emissions peak in 2013?

It looked like Chinese emissions might peak in 2013, after declines in 2014 & 2015, but since then, improvements in the CO2 efficiency of the economy slowed significantly.

CO2 will peak if efficiency improvements return.

See ALT text.

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The figure is a simplified Kaya Identity. The bars are the contributions to growth from GDP, Energy/GDP, CO2/Energy, and when you add the bars together you get the black dot, CO2 growth. For a given GDP, if the improvements in Energy/GDP and CO2/Energy are greater than the GDP growth, then emissions go down.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 20h

US: How much it costs to drive an EV depends on where you charge (home or fast charger), electricity prices, and gas prices, and these last two vary a LOT by state. You can look up your own state here.

How Much It Costs to Drive an E.V. and a Gas Car in Every State

www.nytimes.com

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CICERO Center for International Climate Research @cicero.oslo.no · 21h

– Den største utfordringen i næringslivets omstilling ligger ikke i teknologien, men i tankesettet.

Et samarbeid om taktskifte

– Den største utfordringen i næringslivets omstilling ligger ikke i teknologien, men i tankesettet. En fortelling som gir mening, en plan som gir retning og et

cicero.oslo.no

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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 1d

There is a lot of talk about a peak in Chinese fossil CO2 emissions.

Carbon Monitor already has estimated a decline in Chinese CO2 in 2024 (last year) of -0.44%.
carbonmonitor.org/variation

The Global Carbon Budget has a 0.7% increase in 2024.

Across two datasets, we don't know if up or down!

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 1d

Even the newest coal plant in the US has been taken offline for two years to fix problems. That's 932 GW taken off the grid all at once, for two years.

Newest big U.S. coal-plant offline until 2027

The newest major coal-fired power plant in the U.S. is expected to be offline until March 2027 after a major failure in April.

ieefa.org

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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 3d

"It is the model with the most scenarios that has the largest influence on 1.5°C scenario findings. Individual studies have only a small or negligible impact on most findings," says @idasogn.bsky.social

cicero.oslo.no/en/articles/...

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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 6d

How much must coal go down by 2050?

Well, it depends on the model...

AIM has small reductions & few scenarios, REMIND has high reductions & many scenarios. Statistics presented in IPCC therefor give high reductions. Without REMIND, reductions lower (red line with R)

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Figure showing reductions by scenario, group by each model. REMIND has nearly 100% reductions with 41 scenarios. AIM has around 60% reduction with 4 scenarios. Other models in between. There are 97 scenarios in total. So the median, used by IPCC, is very close to the REMIND median. Take out remind, instead of IPCC reporting 95% reductions by 2050, it would instead report something like 83%. There would be therefore greater reductions in oil and gas, to compensate.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 5d

My estimates of how much Norway's CO₂ emissions have been reduced as a result of EVs, PHEVs, and biofuels.
robbieandrew.github.io/EV/

Graph showing: Avoided emissions from passenger cars in Norway

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 4d

I regularly update an internal database of monthly cement production in a bunch of countries, as part of my global cement emissions dataset. I've just pushed a new version to Zenodo.

Monthly global cement production data

This dataset is a machine-readable (CSV+JSON) collation of available reported monthly cement and cement clinker production data from both national sources and the (now discontinued) UN Monthly Bulleti...

zenodo.org

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Gunnar Myhre @gunnarmy.bsky.social · 7d

Emerging hemispheric asymmetry of Earth’s radiation | PNAS www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Emerging hemispheric asymmetry of Earth’s radiation | PNAS

Twenty-four years of satellite observations from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System show a northern hemisphere (NH) minus southern he...

www.pnas.org

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 7d

New article co-authored by a colleague.

Significance
The general circulation of the atmosphere–ocean system is closely linked with the distribution of radiant energy within the climate system. On average, the southern hemisphere and northern hemisphere (NH) reflect the same amount of solar radiation, and the NH emits more outgoing longwave radiation. Using satellite observations, we find that while both hemispheres are darkening, the NH is darkening at a faster rate. The break in hemispheric symmetry in reflected solar radiation challenges the hypothesis that hemispheric symmetry in albedo is a fundamental property of Earth. Whether the general circulation adjusts to produce a cloud distribution that restores hemispheric symmetry in albedo in the future is an open question that has important implications for future climate.

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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 7d

We finally have a new paper out looking at how summary statistics from the AR6 scenario database are highly dependent on the sampling of the database.

High profile statistics are often more representative of the model fingerprint, not the physics.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

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Two curves show how the median is different depending on the scenario.

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Ida Sognnæs @idasogn.bsky.social · 7d

New paper with @glenpeters.bsky.social in Nature Communications today. We show how models and studies with a lot of scenarios in the IPCC scenarios database have a large impact on key findings, including emissions reductions, net-zero GHG year, and coal, gas, and oil consistent with 1.5°C.

Influence of individual models and studies on quantitative mitigation findings in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - Nature Communications

The paper analyses the impact of the uneven representation of models and studies on key mitigation findings in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. It finds that the model with the most scenarios has a considerable influence on several findings.

www.nature.com

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 7d

98% in September.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

Graph showing: Norwegian new passenger car sales by type: Monthly

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 8d

Interesting analysis of the list prices of light-duty vehicles available in Germany. At the cheaper end of the market, BEVs have a lower share, but in the middle of the market, the share rises to 30%.

Daniel @dergenaue.bsky.social · 11d

Mich hat interessiert, wie sich der Anteil von E-Autos an den Neuzulassungen eigentlich abhängig vom Listenpreis verhält.

Interaktive Version hier: www.datawrapper.de/_/PSqha/

Plot, der die Antriebsarten der Neuzulassungen der PKW im August in Deutschland gegen den Listenpreis der Autos vergleicht für Verbrenner, Plug-In Hybride und Batteriefahrzeuge.
Unter 35k dominieren Verbrenner sehr stark.
Über 60k werden allgemein deutlich weniger Autos verkauft.
Batteriefahrzeuge gibt es von 15k (wenig, 10% Anteil) über 55k (30% Anteil), über 75k (15% Anteil) in allen Preisbereichen.
Plug-In Hybride beginnen erst bei 40k mit geringem Anteil, überholen ab 65k die E-Autos (30% Anteil) und steigen bei 80k auf 45% Anteil.
Im Plot sind die einzelnen Modelle als Kreise mit Größe der Zulassungszahlen eingetragen, wodurch besonders viel zugelassene Modelle, wie der Verbrenner VW T-Roc oder der VW ID.3 (beide ~45k) besonders sichtbar werden.
Der Gesamtschnitt der Batterieautos an den Neuzulassungen im August war 19%.

Detailansicht des gleichen Plots für 15-75k

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 8d

An interesting pattern in the new South Korean car sales data is the dramatic drop every January.
Apparently this is because subsidies are announced every February!
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

Graph showing: South Korean new passenger car sales by type: Monthly

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 8d

The Indian state of Maharashtra has 4.5 million agricultural water pumps, which use 30% of the state's total electricity supply.

World’s largest 16,000 MW decentralised solar project likely to be ready by March 2026

Maharashtra Solar Project: While a senior MSEDCL official claimed that the project would be completed by March 2026, sources said that it could stretch till the end of the year.

energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 9d

South Korea breached the 50% mark for total sales of "eco-friendly" vehicles in both May and July of this year.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 10d

Some of the most interesting trends in electric car sales are in developing countries, here Indonesia.

When price parity is reached & energy security is a concern, EVs will take off in the developing world.

Check some charts here (mainly developed countries) robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

Indonesia is up to 20% new car sales are EVs, in the space of a few years...

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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 13d

Have Chinese greenhouse gas emissions reached a peak?

Many people seem to be boldly saying yes. I think it is too premature.

Lots of good things happening in China, a peak is expected soon, as we have been saying for 10 years...

(in Norwegian) www.energiogklima.no/to-grader/ek...

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 14d

Always interesting reading the anonymous comments to the survey of US oil and gas executives.
This quarter the theme is unpredictability in a chaotic environment.
"The noise and chaos is deafening!" said one.

Oil and gas activity slips again on elevated uncertainty, higher costs

Activity in the oil and gas sector declined slightly in the third quarter of 2025, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

www.dallasfed.org

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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 14d

My radical figure for the day. Chinese GHG emissions scaled to 2023 (the last data point in the EDGAR database).

A 7-10% drop would take GHG emissions back to 2020 levels. In other words, from 2020 to 2023, Chinese GHG emissions grew ~10%.

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Chinese emissions, as a % of 2023 levels

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 14d

The rise and fall of the internal combustion engine, China edition.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

Graph showing: Chinese new passenger car sales by type: Monthly

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Elin Lerum Boasson @elinlb.bsky.social · 14d

Stortinget forutså ikke helt hva EU kom til å gjøre i klimapolitikken. Ettersom norske klimamål baserer seg mer på hva EU kommer til å gjøre, enn hva vi skal gjøre selv, så skaper dette hodebry. 1/n

www.dn.no/politikk/kli...

Norges klimamål overgår nå EUs – Høyre reagerer: – Vi må være mest mulig på linje med EU (+)

Norge ligger nå an til å ha et høyere klimamål for utslippskutt i 2035 enn EU-landene. Støre-regjeringen skal svare Stortinget om hvilke konsekvenser det får – og hva de akter å gjøre med det.

www.dn.no

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 15d

It's weird - but now in Oslo, there's so many EVs that you notice the noise and the smell from individual ICE cars, and you realise how much we've been normalising it for ever. You can smell them half a street away.

And inside parking lots are just *quiet*.

Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 16d

It's absolutely astonishing: In just about 13 years, Norway has skyrocketed from virtually no sales of zero-emission battery electric vehicles to nearly 100% of all new passenger car purchases.

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