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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 8d

Total lost international aviation fuel tax revenue for the EU is in the tens of billions per year.

www.transportenvironment.org/articles/eve...

Every hour European governments lose out on €4 million in aviation…

The aviation sector benefits from unjustified tax exemptions that, if left unaddressed, will rise in value by 38% in the next three years.

www.transportenvironment.org

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 8d

Paris-Berlin sleeper: low carbon, 2 years old, constantly full, but currently losing SNCF a few million EUR/yr

Intl Jet fuel tax exemptions are 80 years old and cost the EU 22 million EUR/yr for the Paris-Berlin route alone.

And you're cutting... the sleeper?

www.theguardian.com/travel/2025/...

It’s goodnight Vienna as Paris sleeper train to Austria and Berlin hit by cuts

Some Nightjet services suspended from mid-December after French withdrawal amid public budget crisis

www.theguardian.com

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 11d

Let's just be clear on this.

600 billion dollars is enough money to decarbonize the entire US power grid.

But somehow our species is spending that money on trying to build a machine which pretty nobody wants, except like the 5 richest guys in the world.

www.nrel.gov/analysis/100...

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 11d

ZUCKERBERG: “If we end up misspending a couple of hundred billion dollars, I think that that is going to be very unfortunate, obviously. .. But what I’d say is I actually think the risk is higher on the other side.”

$META
youtu.be/23FyskyFoP8?...

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laurentfranckx.bsky.social @laurentfranckx.bsky.social · 13d

Bessent openly buried Article 5

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 13d

Bessent: "Now Putin has started making incursions into the NATO borders. The one thing I can tell you is the US is not going to get involved with troops or any of that. We will sell the Europeans weapons."

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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · Sep 3

The DIAMOND project has made an important milestone: the first draft release of six open integrated assessment models (IAMs) that are emblematic in both scientific and policy processes. Now is the chance to contribute and provide feedback!
preview.mailerlite.com/y7x9l4x1r1

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 13d

It's particularly acute in Oslo, and in certain parts of Oslo - probably because of congestion charges which are much higher for petrol cars

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 14d

Agreed - depends where in town. I cycle in from the west - and it's a pretty high fraction EVs that I pass. Car parks e.g. in røa are eerily quiet.

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 14d

It's weird - but now in Oslo, there's so many EVs that you notice the noise and the smell from individual ICE cars, and you realise how much we've been normalising it for ever. You can smell them half a street away.

And inside parking lots are just *quiet*.

Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 15d

It's absolutely astonishing: In just about 13 years, Norway has skyrocketed from virtually no sales of zero-emission battery electric vehicles to nearly 100% of all new passenger car purchases.

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Jason Mark @jasondovemark.bsky.social · 14d

Fun Read!
billmckibben.substack.com/p/the-stupid...

The Stupidest Speech in UN History

Everyone's saying so!

billmckibben.substack.com

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The Royal Society @royalsociety.org · 14d

Climate change is not a con-job. If you want to know more about the evidence for and causes of #ClimateChange, head to our website: royalsociety.org/news-resourc...

Climate change: evidence and causes | Royal Society

Supplementary information for the project 'Climate Change: Evidence and causes'.

royalsociety.org

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 16d

So - calling for international agreements to limit SRM to 'safe levels' is like an alcoholic saying they are only going to have one drink. As soon as you start, you've already lost. /End

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 16d

We're not lacking in technological tools to fix climate change. It's increasingly feasible to decarbonise our infrastructure. We need to invest in CDR to reverse the damage we've already done - but SRM is different. It provides a distraction that only makes the world more dangerous and unstable. /5

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 16d

And however well intentioned the original agreement, introducing SRM into your climate toolbox changes the landscape of futures - our descendents will care little about agreements we make today - who are we to tell them that they have to limit and ramp down? /4

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 16d

SRM management is a century-scale problem where even a temporary fuck-up could lead to rates of climate change which vastly exceed anything we've seen so far, where lone actors can have instant global scale effects. /3

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 16d

Calls for responsible governance of SRM imagine a reality which is vastly distant from that we're living in. In an age where international institutions are crumbling, this is not the time to propose that they should take on an even more difficult climate management problem. /2

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 16d

Sorry, but disagree with @hausfath.bsky.social here. You open Pandora's box, you ain't closing it again. We've already seen with Paris that well intentioned international agreements do not translate into physical reality and SRM governance is a much harder problem. Zero is the only safe level. /1

Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 16d

I have a new @nytimes.com guest essay w/ @davidkeith.bsky.social about sunlight reflection. We note its not a solution for climate change and at best a band aid to treat systems, and suggest if its ever done it should only be to replace the cooling from air pollution today:

Opinion | A Responsible Way to Cool the Planet

A small, carefully scaled geoengineering program could compensate for the loss of cooling as we eliminate sulfur pollution.

www.nytimes.com

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 17d

WTF??. I've only just appreciated this applies to *existing* visas. The US is effectively expelling its foreign non-naturalized scientists.

No scientist can reasonably avoid any travel - for work, and (heaven forbid) to see family. And 100k is beyond the means of pretty much everyone.

Gergely Orosz @gergely.pragmaticengineer.com · 18d

Those on an H1B cannot return to the US from tomorrow (Sunday) unless paying $100K. This is an out-of-the blue presidential action. We’ll see software engineers stranded abroad.

One easy to predict outcome: those on US visas will travel less… for work, for conferences etc.

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 17d

Same goes for national labs and non profit research institutes. Pure academic isolationism.

Nicholas Weaver @ncweaver.skerry-tech.com · 17d

Why is this horrible for Universities?

Just about everyone who isn't a citizen or green card holder already who's hired for a tenure track faculty position is hired through an H1B and then, after 3-5 years, applies for a green card.

This is literally "No more foreign professors can be hired"

Gergely Orosz @gergely.pragmaticengineer.com · 18d

Those on an H1B cannot return to the US from tomorrow (Sunday) unless paying $100K. This is an out-of-the blue presidential action. We’ll see software engineers stranded abroad.

One easy to predict outcome: those on US visas will travel less… for work, for conferences etc.

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 17d

They should formally decide at the end of October. But it will be before WG1 LAM4, which is July 2027. Question is how much before (ar6 timing got messed around with COVID)
www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/...

www.ipcc.ch

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Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 18d

funny graphic: Nic Lewis' estimates of climate sensitivity over time. he'll be at 3°C before you know it.
h/t @kenrice.bsky.social via andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2025/08/30/c...

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 17d

The last few years definitely raise some questions about the lower bounds of ECS BUT.. people, AR7 can't cite bluesky. We need strong updated literature, which fully takes into account the last few years of data - ideally from a few independent groups. Tick tock

Cristi Proistosescu @cristiproist.bsky.social · 17d

ECS <2 is absurd in the year of our lord 2025.

The data used in Sherwood et al is now almost a decade old (not to mention Lewis and Curry 2014).

Even ignoring pattern effects, we’re now already at ~1.5C with less than 2xCO2 and an even larger energy imbalance.

No way Effective ECS is <2.

Ken Rice @kenrice.bsky.social · 17d

But it's not just uniform vs Jeffreys. There are other priors and there are other ways to estimate ECS. As Andrew points out, if your method suggest a good chance of the ECS being < 2K, then there's probably an issue with the method, or it's at least worth considering this.

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 26d

I remember only 6 or 7 years ago, trips to Paris were a gridlocked nightmare where cycling was a death wish. It's totally amazing how much they've transformed it into a genuinely nice place for people to walk, cycle, eat outside - just to live.

There is no reason this can't happen everywhere.

Anne Hidalgo @annehidalgo.bsky.social · 27d

Notre ville change ! Nos rues sont peu à peu rendues aux habitants, de nouveaux arbres sont plantés et les promenades facilitées et sécurisées.

C'est le cas de la rue Chaptal dans le 9e ou celle du Docteur-Lecène dans le 13e !

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 26d

The worst of both worlds - DOE not withdrawing report AND refusing to respond to public comments on it. But the substantive question is related to how it is used to support (or not) EPA's proposed repeal of the Endangerment Finding - still TBD I guess?

Shannon Osaka @shannonosaka.bsky.social · 27d

I corresponded with DOE today and they confirmed they have no intention of withdrawing the report.

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Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 27d

I've been getting requests from reporters about the disbanding of the DOE Climate Working Group. Here are some comments. More to come on my Substack (www.theclimatebrink.com).

The DOE Climate Working Group report was an absolute disaster from the beginning. It was created in secret with a hand-picked group of contrarians who do not represent any legitimate scientific position. The report ignored 99% of the scientific literature while employing selective data presentation, misrepresentation of scientific studies, misinterpretation of established science, speculative reasoning, and unsupported assumptions. Additionally, the group was clearly unprepared to meaningfully address the substantive critiques raised during the comment period.

This disastrous episode should put to rest proposals for adversarial "red team-blue team" exercises in climate science. The field already undergoes extraordinary scrutiny and replication, making it among the most thoroughly validated scientific disciplines. While uncertainties exist in climate science, they are well-characterized and constrained—and these remaining uncertainties do not undermine the core findings that climate

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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 27d

Notably they are *not* withdrawing the report itself. “DOE determined that the draft report and the public comments it solicited achieved the purpose of the CWG". edition.cnn.com/2025/09/10/c...

Trump administration dissolves climate contrarian group that authored controversial report | CNN

The group’s end can be traced to a lawsuit alleging the group’s formation violated federal law in several ways.

edition.cnn.com

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