Chris Smith
@cjsmith.eu
Climate scientist at IIASA. IPCC AR7 CLA. Responsive climate projections. The guy behind the fair model and radiative forcing barchart. Occasional runner and guitarist.
github.com/chrisroadmap | cjsmith.eu
github.com/chrisroadmap | cjsmith.eu
The FRISIA sea-level rise model description is published today and selected as a highlight paper in Geoscientific Model Development gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
FRISIA is designed to couple with IAMs, but can also be run standalone for sea-level rise projections from emissions scenarios.
FRISIA is designed to couple with IAMs, but can also be run standalone for sea-level rise projections from emissions scenarios.
Feedback-based sea level rise impact modelling for integrated assessment models with FRISIAv1.0
Abstract. Global warming is expected to lead to a substantial rise in coastal sea levels by the end of the century, which imposes future impacts and adaptation challenges on the coastal zone. Capturin...
gmd.copernicus.org
December 15, 2025 at 9:15 AM
The FRISIA sea-level rise model description is published today and selected as a highlight paper in Geoscientific Model Development gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
FRISIA is designed to couple with IAMs, but can also be run standalone for sea-level rise projections from emissions scenarios.
FRISIA is designed to couple with IAMs, but can also be run standalone for sea-level rise projections from emissions scenarios.
Reposted by Chris Smith
This is the only parody song about geophysical fluid dynamics you’ll ever need:
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
Call Me Charney: A GFD Parody
This was so fun to make!! #lamontdoherty #lamont #atmosphere #science #charney #GFS #vallis #geostrophic #quasigeostrophic #hydrostatic #rossby
urldefense.com
December 12, 2025 at 8:29 PM
This is the only parody song about geophysical fluid dynamics you’ll ever need:
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
I'm looking for projections of agricultural water withdrawal into the future (UN FAO have historical data, e.g. fig. 13 in openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/c...). So much the better if they are tied to SSPs.
The current status of water resources for agriculture
The 2025 report delves into the use of true cost accounting assessments of agrifood systems and identifies policy interventions aimed at transformation
openknowledge.fao.org
December 10, 2025 at 4:10 PM
I'm looking for projections of agricultural water withdrawal into the future (UN FAO have historical data, e.g. fig. 13 in openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/c...). So much the better if they are tied to SSPs.
The Frontiers for Young Minds Climate Change Volume 2, guest edited by me, @chrisd-jones.bsky.social and @leilaniamir.bsky.social, is now complete!
Also collected into a nice e-book!
kids.frontiersin.org/collections/...
Science for kids, peer-reviewed by kids
Also collected into a nice e-book!
kids.frontiersin.org/collections/...
Science for kids, peer-reviewed by kids
Climate Change, Volume 2
Our climate refers to the different types of weather we have all around the world. Some places are hot, some are cold, some are dry and some are wet. But now, our climate is changing and it's affectin...
kids.frontiersin.org
December 8, 2025 at 6:55 PM
The Frontiers for Young Minds Climate Change Volume 2, guest edited by me, @chrisd-jones.bsky.social and @leilaniamir.bsky.social, is now complete!
Also collected into a nice e-book!
kids.frontiersin.org/collections/...
Science for kids, peer-reviewed by kids
Also collected into a nice e-book!
kids.frontiersin.org/collections/...
Science for kids, peer-reviewed by kids
Reposted by Chris Smith
🌍Two members of our department @cjsmith.be and @harryzeko.bsky.social joined the first IPCC AR7 lead author meeting in Saint-Denis (Paris).
#IPCC #AR7 #ClimateScience #WG1 #ClimateAction
#IPCC #AR7 #ClimateScience #WG1 #ClimateAction
December 8, 2025 at 2:07 PM
🌍Two members of our department @cjsmith.be and @harryzeko.bsky.social joined the first IPCC AR7 lead author meeting in Saint-Denis (Paris).
#IPCC #AR7 #ClimateScience #WG1 #ClimateAction
#IPCC #AR7 #ClimateScience #WG1 #ClimateAction
Reposted by Chris Smith
#EGU26 session on climate change emulation for impact projections.
Please share with anyone who works on simple climate models, statistical / ML / hybrid approaches, pattern scaling, emulators, real-world impact studies 🌍
📩 Abstract submissions are open.
🔗 Session info: www.egu26.eu/session/56612
Please share with anyone who works on simple climate models, statistical / ML / hybrid approaches, pattern scaling, emulators, real-world impact studies 🌍
📩 Abstract submissions are open.
🔗 Session info: www.egu26.eu/session/56612
Session CL3.2.7
www.egu26.eu
December 1, 2025 at 2:49 PM
#EGU26 session on climate change emulation for impact projections.
Please share with anyone who works on simple climate models, statistical / ML / hybrid approaches, pattern scaling, emulators, real-world impact studies 🌍
📩 Abstract submissions are open.
🔗 Session info: www.egu26.eu/session/56612
Please share with anyone who works on simple climate models, statistical / ML / hybrid approaches, pattern scaling, emulators, real-world impact studies 🌍
📩 Abstract submissions are open.
🔗 Session info: www.egu26.eu/session/56612
Reposted by Chris Smith
⚖️ Are you working on topics that could be relevant for climate litigation?
➡️ Submit an abstract to our outreach session (which allows you to submit a second abstract)
#EGU26
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
➡️ Submit an abstract to our outreach session (which allows you to submit a second abstract)
#EGU26
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
November 7, 2025 at 9:22 AM
⚖️ Are you working on topics that could be relevant for climate litigation?
➡️ Submit an abstract to our outreach session (which allows you to submit a second abstract)
#EGU26
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
➡️ Submit an abstract to our outreach session (which allows you to submit a second abstract)
#EGU26
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
In parallel to experiments run by complex climate models, we evaluate the simple climate models that are used as translations of knowledge from physical science to scenario projections
In parallel to experiments run by complex climate models, we evaluate the simple climate models that are used as translations of knowledge from physical science to scenario projections
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models
Abstract. Reduced-Complexity Models (RCMs) are a critical tool for synthesising climate science knowledge and providing climate projections for a wide range of emissions scenarios. The Reduced-Complex...
egusphere.copernicus.org
November 21, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
In parallel to experiments run by complex climate models, we evaluate the simple climate models that are used as translations of knowledge from physical science to scenario projections
In parallel to experiments run by complex climate models, we evaluate the simple climate models that are used as translations of knowledge from physical science to scenario projections
Cool, thanks Abby! I was aware of this paper but don't think I cited it (my bad) - the running to 2300 is there and we can compare the carbon sinks, but the experiments were concentration-driven, and didn't include the lower scenarios, and they don't have NorESM, which is a super interesting model!
November 8, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Cool, thanks Abby! I was aware of this paper but don't think I cited it (my bad) - the running to 2300 is there and we can compare the carbon sinks, but the experiments were concentration-driven, and didn't include the lower scenarios, and they don't have NorESM, which is a super interesting model!
Unfortunately not. These were from the CMIP6 ESGF - was really a shame that not many models extended beyond 2100.
November 7, 2025 at 12:16 PM
Unfortunately not. These were from the CMIP6 ESGF - was really a shame that not many models extended beyond 2100.
A sneak peak of hopefully what is to come in CMIP7. We ran two CMIP6 climate models in CO2 emissions driven mode to 2300 - and the responses in the long term are very different.
Preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
Preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
November 7, 2025 at 11:48 AM
A sneak peak of hopefully what is to come in CMIP7. We ran two CMIP6 climate models in CO2 emissions driven mode to 2300 - and the responses in the long term are very different.
Preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
Preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
The FRIDA overview paper: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
A coupled human-Earth IAM, with integrated climate impacts.
A coupled human-Earth IAM, with integrated climate impacts.
An overview of FRIDA v2.1: a feedback-based, fully coupled, global integrated assessment model of climate and humans
Abstract. The current crop of models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce their assessment reports lack endogenous process-based representations of climate-drive...
gmd.copernicus.org
October 30, 2025 at 8:26 AM
The FRIDA overview paper: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
A coupled human-Earth IAM, with integrated climate impacts.
A coupled human-Earth IAM, with integrated climate impacts.
I should have known this...
There are 1.5°C no and low overshoot scenarios in AR5, but they are cooler in 2020 than we have observed, suggesting that mitigation would have started in the 2010s.
It would be good to do this consistently harmonized in the same simple climate model
There are 1.5°C no and low overshoot scenarios in AR5, but they are cooler in 2020 than we have observed, suggesting that mitigation would have started in the 2010s.
It would be good to do this consistently harmonized in the same simple climate model
October 28, 2025 at 4:31 PM
I should have known this...
There are 1.5°C no and low overshoot scenarios in AR5, but they are cooler in 2020 than we have observed, suggesting that mitigation would have started in the 2010s.
It would be good to do this consistently harmonized in the same simple climate model
There are 1.5°C no and low overshoot scenarios in AR5, but they are cooler in 2020 than we have observed, suggesting that mitigation would have started in the 2010s.
It would be good to do this consistently harmonized in the same simple climate model
yeh, precisely this! I mean, one of the successes of the Paris Agreement (or failure of pre-Paris climate policy?) is that nobody was really looking at 1.5°C scenarios before 2016. I'm just interested to see if anyone has done a like-for-like climate comparison. If not, I might :)
October 28, 2025 at 4:16 PM
yeh, precisely this! I mean, one of the successes of the Paris Agreement (or failure of pre-Paris climate policy?) is that nobody was really looking at 1.5°C scenarios before 2016. I'm just interested to see if anyone has done a like-for-like climate comparison. If not, I might :)
Has anybody ever looked at the IPCC AR5 scenario database and run them in a simple climate model? I'm curious to know how many would get close to 1.5°C - probably not many if the earliest net zero CO2 date is ~2060. Interesting to see how ambition has evolved over time at the low end
October 28, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Has anybody ever looked at the IPCC AR5 scenario database and run them in a simple climate model? I'm curious to know how many would get close to 1.5°C - probably not many if the earliest net zero CO2 date is ~2060. Interesting to see how ambition has evolved over time at the low end
Carbon Brief article on our committed sea-level rise paper: www.carbonbrief.org/rapid-emissi...
Rapid emissions cuts would avoid 64cm of ‘locked in’ sea level rise by 2300 - Carbon Brief
Cutting emissions in line with the 1.5C warming limit, rather than following current climate policies, could curb long-term sea level rise by 64cm.
www.carbonbrief.org
October 27, 2025 at 9:51 AM
Carbon Brief article on our committed sea-level rise paper: www.carbonbrief.org/rapid-emissi...
Reposted by Chris Smith
Really important paper led by my @iiasa.ac.at colleague Alex Nauels www.nature.com/articles/s41...
“The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏
“The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏
Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades - Nature Climate Change
It is important to understand how much long-term sea-level rise is already committed due to historical and near-term emissions. Here the authors use a modelling framework to show how decisions on glob...
www.nature.com
October 24, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Really important paper led by my @iiasa.ac.at colleague Alex Nauels www.nature.com/articles/s41...
“The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏
“The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏
windows will restart now
October 12, 2025 at 9:30 PM
windows will restart now
How to contribute to fair:
✅submit a pull request
✅wait 6 months
✅track me down in person and remind me to review it
v2.2.3 now available at the usual places.
pypi.org/project/fair
anaconda.org/conda-forge/fair
✅submit a pull request
✅wait 6 months
✅track me down in person and remind me to review it
v2.2.3 now available at the usual places.
pypi.org/project/fair
anaconda.org/conda-forge/fair
Fair | Anaconda.org
anaconda.org
October 12, 2025 at 5:40 PM
How to contribute to fair:
✅submit a pull request
✅wait 6 months
✅track me down in person and remind me to review it
v2.2.3 now available at the usual places.
pypi.org/project/fair
anaconda.org/conda-forge/fair
✅submit a pull request
✅wait 6 months
✅track me down in person and remind me to review it
v2.2.3 now available at the usual places.
pypi.org/project/fair
anaconda.org/conda-forge/fair
I know!!! I was outvoted
September 18, 2025 at 11:24 AM
I know!!! I was outvoted
RFMIP2 preprint now out! egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP2.0) for CMIP7
Abstract. An external perturbation to the climate system from anthropogenic or natural activity first impacts the climate by inducing a perturbation to Earth’s energy budget, known as a radiative forc...
egusphere.copernicus.org
September 17, 2025 at 1:08 PM
RFMIP2 preprint now out! egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
If you want to get your simple climate model picked up by IPCC AR7, see below 👇
We have 11 on our radar from the previous round of RCMIP (egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...), plus a few others we found since.
Anybody we don't know about please ping me or Alex
We have 11 on our radar from the previous round of RCMIP (egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...), plus a few others we found since.
Anybody we don't know about please ping me or Alex
September 10, 2025 at 10:22 AM
If you want to get your simple climate model picked up by IPCC AR7, see below 👇
We have 11 on our radar from the previous round of RCMIP (egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...), plus a few others we found since.
Anybody we don't know about please ping me or Alex
We have 11 on our radar from the previous round of RCMIP (egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...), plus a few others we found since.
Anybody we don't know about please ping me or Alex
flat10-MIP has landed! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions
Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from ...
gmd.copernicus.org
September 5, 2025 at 8:30 AM
flat10-MIP has landed! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...