Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin.bsky.social
Climate scientist, juggler. Bikes etc. Blogging at https://www.realclimate.org - data visualization, explainers, and debunking.
We got a Charlie earlier this year - game changing. Even Kate comes over to watch me boil water and bake at the same time!
November 25, 2025 at 9:27 PM
We got a Charlie earlier this year - game changing. Even Kate comes over to watch me boil water and bake at the same time!
Reposted by Gavin Schmidt
Gender-affirming care saves lives
1. A landmark study was just published in The Journal of Pediatrics.
It found a 68% reduction in suicidality for trans youth getting HRT.
It also found only 7 of more than 400 stopped taking HRT... and of those that did, 4 still identified as gender-diverse.
Transgender care saves lives.
It found a 68% reduction in suicidality for trans youth getting HRT.
It also found only 7 of more than 400 stopped taking HRT... and of those that did, 4 still identified as gender-diverse.
Transgender care saves lives.
Study In The Journal Of Pediatrics Finds Trans Youth Care Lowers Suicidality, Few Detransition
The groundbreaking study found that suicidality dropped for transgender youth receiving hormone therapy by nearly 70%, with only 7 patients of 432 discontinuing treatment.
www.erininthemorning.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Gender-affirming care saves lives
Reposted by Gavin Schmidt
Reposted by Gavin Schmidt
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 9:26 AM
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
Yes. Same concept
November 24, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Yes. Same concept
Reposted by Gavin Schmidt
Great view of the eruption of Hayli Gubbi Volcano from Aqua MODIS yesterday afternoon. Imagery from NASA WorldView: go.nasa.gov/4p0ivDW
🌋🛰️
🌋🛰️
November 24, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Great view of the eruption of Hayli Gubbi Volcano from Aqua MODIS yesterday afternoon. Imagery from NASA WorldView: go.nasa.gov/4p0ivDW
🌋🛰️
🌋🛰️
Similarly, it's different from weather forescasting - even on seasonal time scales - which does provide information on climatological risks (i.e. the probability of extremes).
November 24, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Similarly, it's different from weather forescasting - even on seasonal time scales - which does provide information on climatological risks (i.e. the probability of extremes).
It is motivated by the (obvious) non-stationarity in observations and the need to predict risks for today, not for 20 or 30 years ago. This is distinguishable as well as climate trends going forward 20 or 30 years whch depend on future emissions.
November 24, 2025 at 7:01 PM
It is motivated by the (obvious) non-stationarity in observations and the need to predict risks for today, not for 20 or 30 years ago. This is distinguishable as well as climate trends going forward 20 or 30 years whch depend on future emissions.
This paper did not get that much attention when it came out, but it deserves more. Welcome to "Climate Nowcasting" as a new term in the lexicon...
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
November 24, 2025 at 7:01 PM
This paper did not get that much attention when it came out, but it deserves more. Welcome to "Climate Nowcasting" as a new term in the lexicon...
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Reposted by Gavin Schmidt
“I think most Americans would be stunned to learn that international adoptees have not all been automatically granted the same status as their U.S. parents. Several grown adoptees have already been deported, including individuals who came to the United States as infants”
A mother shares the terrifying reality that her internationally adopted son, raised in the U.S. since childhood, could be detained or deported by ICE because he was never granted citizenship. 35-70k adoptees remain in this legal limbo. Urge Congress to pass the PAAF Act. 🥚
I'm A U.S. Citizen. I'm Terrified My Adopted Son Will Be Snatched By ICE Due To A Heartbreaking Loophole.
"I lie awake at night worried that he’ll be snatched off the street and taken to a nightmarish prison in some other country, and I’ll never see him again."
www.huffpost.com
November 24, 2025 at 3:05 PM
“I think most Americans would be stunned to learn that international adoptees have not all been automatically granted the same status as their U.S. parents. Several grown adoptees have already been deported, including individuals who came to the United States as infants”
Reposted by Gavin Schmidt
Still reeling from the Stanford report on Brexit. Reduced GDP by up to 8% and investment by as much as 18%. The UK Treasury would have £40 billion more each year if Britain had remained in the EU. Devastating self-immolation.
The Economic Impact of Brexit
Other
siepr.stanford.edu
November 24, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Still reeling from the Stanford report on Brexit. Reduced GDP by up to 8% and investment by as much as 18%. The UK Treasury would have £40 billion more each year if Britain had remained in the EU. Devastating self-immolation.
i.e. what gets covered, what doesn't. Who gets to speak to large audiences and who doesn't. The view from nowhere. Balance vs. truth. etc.
November 24, 2025 at 2:54 PM
i.e. what gets covered, what doesn't. Who gets to speak to large audiences and who doesn't. The view from nowhere. Balance vs. truth. etc.
The ethical lapses here are huge, but I might take issue with Sullivan's conclusion that it's this kind of thing that trashes the media's reputation w/the public. None of these folks are household names (Bluesky notoriety doesn't count). The bigger issues are still systematic, not personal.
November 24, 2025 at 2:54 PM
The ethical lapses here are huge, but I might take issue with Sullivan's conclusion that it's this kind of thing that trashes the media's reputation w/the public. None of these folks are household names (Bluesky notoriety doesn't count). The bigger issues are still systematic, not personal.
Reposted by Gavin Schmidt
A second opportunity to examine the cloud reduction effects from shipping fuel pollution measures has revealed that the 80% cut in sulphur emissions reduces cloud droplet formation by 67%.
acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/...
#aerosols #climatechange #clouds #IMO2020 #ECS
acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/...
#aerosols #climatechange #clouds #IMO2020 #ECS
acp.copernicus.org
November 24, 2025 at 11:55 AM
A second opportunity to examine the cloud reduction effects from shipping fuel pollution measures has revealed that the 80% cut in sulphur emissions reduces cloud droplet formation by 67%.
acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/...
#aerosols #climatechange #clouds #IMO2020 #ECS
acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/...
#aerosols #climatechange #clouds #IMO2020 #ECS
This seems a bit hand-wavy. There’s no calculation here related to ECS and I’m unaware of one that relates the magnitude of the IMO-related aerosol reduction to ECS in any simple way. There isn’t even a radiative forcing estimate that could be plugged into the assessment we did earlier this yr.
November 24, 2025 at 2:00 PM
This seems a bit hand-wavy. There’s no calculation here related to ECS and I’m unaware of one that relates the magnitude of the IMO-related aerosol reduction to ECS in any simple way. There isn’t even a radiative forcing estimate that could be plugged into the assessment we did earlier this yr.
Reposted by Gavin Schmidt
Franz Josef Glacier - Kā Roimata o Hine Hukatere
ca 1867 | 2022
Impressive comparison between the first known photograph taken of one of the most iconic NZ glaciers and current situation! 🧊🔥
The rock on the right is Sentinel Rock, one of the roches moutonnées in the glacier forefield
1/
ca 1867 | 2022
Impressive comparison between the first known photograph taken of one of the most iconic NZ glaciers and current situation! 🧊🔥
The rock on the right is Sentinel Rock, one of the roches moutonnées in the glacier forefield
1/
November 23, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Franz Josef Glacier - Kā Roimata o Hine Hukatere
ca 1867 | 2022
Impressive comparison between the first known photograph taken of one of the most iconic NZ glaciers and current situation! 🧊🔥
The rock on the right is Sentinel Rock, one of the roches moutonnées in the glacier forefield
1/
ca 1867 | 2022
Impressive comparison between the first known photograph taken of one of the most iconic NZ glaciers and current situation! 🧊🔥
The rock on the right is Sentinel Rock, one of the roches moutonnées in the glacier forefield
1/
Reposted by Gavin Schmidt
This great thread makes a point I've been trying to convey for years. Calling all data-driven prediction or decision software "AI" is a huge gift to LLM hypemen, who want people to believe, incorrectly, that LLM data centers are crucial for solar forecasting or operating buildings and power grids.
Journalist challenge: Use “Machine Learning” when you mean machine learning and “LLM” when you mean LLM. Ditch “AI” as a catch-all term, it’s not useful for readers and it helps companies trying to confuse the public by obscuring the roles played by different technologies. 🧪
November 22, 2025 at 6:08 PM
This great thread makes a point I've been trying to convey for years. Calling all data-driven prediction or decision software "AI" is a huge gift to LLM hypemen, who want people to believe, incorrectly, that LLM data centers are crucial for solar forecasting or operating buildings and power grids.
Reposted by Gavin Schmidt
On the patently unlawful boat strikes
It's hard for USGs to claim ‘mistake of law’ or ‘advice of counsel’ – when they’re firing lawyers who wouldn't sign off on the strikes.
WaPo's new revelations on firings or removals:
1) CIA General Counsel
2) NSC Legal Adviser
3) CIA Mission Center’s lawyer
🧵
It's hard for USGs to claim ‘mistake of law’ or ‘advice of counsel’ – when they’re firing lawyers who wouldn't sign off on the strikes.
WaPo's new revelations on firings or removals:
1) CIA General Counsel
2) NSC Legal Adviser
3) CIA Mission Center’s lawyer
🧵
White House blew past legal concerns in deadly strikes on drug boats
The Trump administration sidestepped skeptical lawyers across national security agencies as it pursued a military campaign against alleged narcotraffickers, officials say.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 22, 2025 at 3:10 PM
On the patently unlawful boat strikes
It's hard for USGs to claim ‘mistake of law’ or ‘advice of counsel’ – when they’re firing lawyers who wouldn't sign off on the strikes.
WaPo's new revelations on firings or removals:
1) CIA General Counsel
2) NSC Legal Adviser
3) CIA Mission Center’s lawyer
🧵
It's hard for USGs to claim ‘mistake of law’ or ‘advice of counsel’ – when they’re firing lawyers who wouldn't sign off on the strikes.
WaPo's new revelations on firings or removals:
1) CIA General Counsel
2) NSC Legal Adviser
3) CIA Mission Center’s lawyer
🧵
Reposted by Gavin Schmidt
TX Hill Country floods have been in the news as more victims' families file lawsuits. I've had a lot of opportunity to examine this event - including visiting Kerrville - and share my perspectives on what I've learned & what we can do to keep this from happening again. https://tinyurl.com/2yyzza2y
BalancedWx Special: Revisiting the Texas Hill Country flash flood catastrophe
Recent New York Times article provides details about events at Camp Mystic
tinyurl.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:35 PM
TX Hill Country floods have been in the news as more victims' families file lawsuits. I've had a lot of opportunity to examine this event - including visiting Kerrville - and share my perspectives on what I've learned & what we can do to keep this from happening again. https://tinyurl.com/2yyzza2y
It happens more than you might think!
November 21, 2025 at 3:55 PM
It happens more than you might think!
These people were/are idiots. Everything was just a vibe or a sound bite and they never bothered to ask people who might have known better.
November 21, 2025 at 1:50 PM
These people were/are idiots. Everything was just a vibe or a sound bite and they never bothered to ask people who might have known better.
I think you’ve mixed up your Gavin’s…
November 21, 2025 at 1:40 PM
I think you’ve mixed up your Gavin’s…
This is bad. How can any university hire people, build facilities, make any plans, if the funding can be arbitrarily removed on a whim from an agency? This goes far beyond currently disfavored topics.
Update on a significant development NIH grant terms.
On 10/1, a change to grant making regs went into effect that gives NIH more power to terminate grants for policy reasons.
But to use this power, new grant terms must include specific language. See @aniloza.bsky.social w/ the story from July.
1/
On 10/1, a change to grant making regs went into effect that gives NIH more power to terminate grants for policy reasons.
But to use this power, new grant terms must include specific language. See @aniloza.bsky.social w/ the story from July.
1/
HHS devises legal playbook for future grant terminations, internal memo shows
Exclusive: HHS devises a legal playbook for future research grant terminations, an internal memo shows.
www.statnews.com
November 20, 2025 at 4:40 PM
This is bad. How can any university hire people, build facilities, make any plans, if the funding can be arbitrarily removed on a whim from an agency? This goes far beyond currently disfavored topics.
Reposted by Gavin Schmidt
My new favorite kind of meme is "here are detailed instructions on how to turn off AI". 🔨
November 19, 2025 at 3:00 PM
My new favorite kind of meme is "here are detailed instructions on how to turn off AI". 🔨