Craig Renney
@clrenney.bsky.social
Labour Candidate for Wellington Bays in 2026. CTU Economist, Unionist, and believer in a better Aotearoa.
https://linktr.ee/craigrenney.official
Authorised by Rob Salmond, 2 Gilmer Terrace, Wellington
https://linktr.ee/craigrenney.official
Authorised by Rob Salmond, 2 Gilmer Terrace, Wellington
#nzpol I’m here at the release of the Salvation Army State of the Nation for 2026. It’s a portrait of the problems facing Aotearoa, and how we are doing in tackling them. Many of the problems we face have worsened over the past two years. A 🧵
February 10, 2026 at 8:28 PM
#nzpol I’m here at the release of the Salvation Army State of the Nation for 2026. It’s a portrait of the problems facing Aotearoa, and how we are doing in tackling them. Many of the problems we face have worsened over the past two years. A 🧵
#nzpol Do you feel back on track yet?
MSD have been delaying their December benefits data release due to data processing issues but they shared headline numbers yesterday. If the data is correct, this is a huuuge increase. We now have nearly 1 in 7 adults on a working age benefit. Link in ALT. (🧵 1/n)
February 6, 2026 at 10:23 AM
#nzpol Do you feel back on track yet?
#nzpol New unemployment data from Stats NZ today, showing the impact of an economy that isn't working. An additional 5,000 people became unemployed during the quarter, rising to levels last seen in 2015. 164,000 people are now unemployed, up 39,000 in just 2 years. A🧵
February 3, 2026 at 10:54 PM
#nzpol New unemployment data from Stats NZ today, showing the impact of an economy that isn't working. An additional 5,000 people became unemployed during the quarter, rising to levels last seen in 2015. 164,000 people are now unemployed, up 39,000 in just 2 years. A🧵
#nzpol Stats NZ has put Household Living Price Index data - showing how the cost of living is affecting different households. The cost of living has nearly stalled if you have a high income (1.2%). The poorest have a household inflation rate (3.4%) nearly 3 times the rate of the richest.
February 2, 2026 at 12:24 AM
#nzpol Stats NZ has put Household Living Price Index data - showing how the cost of living is affecting different households. The cost of living has nearly stalled if you have a high income (1.2%). The poorest have a household inflation rate (3.4%) nearly 3 times the rate of the richest.
#nzpol Today in FEC @barbedmonds.bsky.social asked MOF why GDP for 2026 keeps falling. The data from Treasury is clear - forecasts have fallen at every update year - down $14.4bn in just 2 years. Perhaps insanity really is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result
January 27, 2026 at 10:14 PM
#nzpol Today in FEC @barbedmonds.bsky.social asked MOF why GDP for 2026 keeps falling. The data from Treasury is clear - forecasts have fallen at every update year - down $14.4bn in just 2 years. Perhaps insanity really is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result
Reposted by Craig Renney
[I am reposting as I have fixed an error in processing the csv file (in turning dates in Jan and Oct from text to date where Excel truncated year.month x.10 to x.1)
Visualisation of how much bread the minimum wage can afford to buy, which is well below 2016 when National were last in government.
Visualisation of how much bread the minimum wage can afford to buy, which is well below 2016 when National were last in government.
January 23, 2026 at 2:16 AM
[I am reposting as I have fixed an error in processing the csv file (in turning dates in Jan and Oct from text to date where Excel truncated year.month x.10 to x.1)
Visualisation of how much bread the minimum wage can afford to buy, which is well below 2016 when National were last in government.
Visualisation of how much bread the minimum wage can afford to buy, which is well below 2016 when National were last in government.
#nzpol Data released by Stats NZ today shows that the cost of living rose at its fastest rate for 18 months. Prices rose for 80% of items in the CPI basket, meaning growth in prices was broad-based. Minimum wage workers are now facing a 3rd year of real terms cuts in wages. A thread
January 22, 2026 at 10:19 PM
#nzpol Data released by Stats NZ today shows that the cost of living rose at its fastest rate for 18 months. Prices rose for 80% of items in the CPI basket, meaning growth in prices was broad-based. Minimum wage workers are now facing a 3rd year of real terms cuts in wages. A thread
#nzpol The Prime Minister spent longer managing his Spotify Playlists than writing that speech. Nothing new, nothing to help manage growing unemployment, more cuts signalled to government investment. That wasn't a State of the Nation - it was asking people to forget the past two years.
January 19, 2026 at 12:33 AM
#nzpol The Prime Minister spent longer managing his Spotify Playlists than writing that speech. Nothing new, nothing to help manage growing unemployment, more cuts signalled to government investment. That wasn't a State of the Nation - it was asking people to forget the past two years.
#nzpol - I have had a look at these 'green shoots' ahead of the Prime Minister's State of the Nation Speech on Monday. The data tells us that we have spent two years regressing. Let’s not make it another 4. More at: craigrenney.substack.com/p/the-recove...
The recovery you want has been further delayed
The government will be desperate to tell a story that things have improved. The data tells us that we have spent two years regressing. Let’s not make it another 4.
craigrenney.substack.com
January 15, 2026 at 3:05 AM
#nzpol - I have had a look at these 'green shoots' ahead of the Prime Minister's State of the Nation Speech on Monday. The data tells us that we have spent two years regressing. Let’s not make it another 4. More at: craigrenney.substack.com/p/the-recove...
#nzpol NBR reports the Min. of Finance saying a "Stronger economy will help the Government’s books". nbr.co.nz/politics/str...
The chart (from @labourcartel.bsky.social) might explain the government's current situation. Something happened in late 2023, and things have gotten worse since.
The chart (from @labourcartel.bsky.social) might explain the government's current situation. Something happened in late 2023, and things have gotten worse since.
December 18, 2025 at 9:12 PM
#nzpol NBR reports the Min. of Finance saying a "Stronger economy will help the Government’s books". nbr.co.nz/politics/str...
The chart (from @labourcartel.bsky.social) might explain the government's current situation. Something happened in late 2023, and things have gotten worse since.
The chart (from @labourcartel.bsky.social) might explain the government's current situation. Something happened in late 2023, and things have gotten worse since.
#nzpol Data released today shows that for all the talk of green shoots, the economy hasn’t grown at all in 2 years. Unemployment is up, & the cost of living is still rising for middle and low-income New Zealanders. The GDP increase today simply balances out the fall previously. A Thread
December 18, 2025 at 12:15 AM
#nzpol Data released today shows that for all the talk of green shoots, the economy hasn’t grown at all in 2 years. Unemployment is up, & the cost of living is still rising for middle and low-income New Zealanders. The GDP increase today simply balances out the fall previously. A Thread
#nzpol In the house today, Nicola Willis said that in my recent book I thought the debt limit for the government should be 80-90% of GDP. As is clear in the book - that is the Treasury's position, not mine. See P.14 of www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/defaul...
December 17, 2025 at 2:25 AM
#nzpol In the house today, Nicola Willis said that in my recent book I thought the debt limit for the government should be 80-90% of GDP. As is clear in the book - that is the Treasury's position, not mine. See P.14 of www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/defaul...
#nzpol HYEFU shows that the OBEGAL deficit is no longer in the same postcode as the National Party Fiscal Plan. We never get close to the surplus being promised - to the tune of -$48bn across the period to 2027/28
December 16, 2025 at 2:24 AM
#nzpol HYEFU shows that the OBEGAL deficit is no longer in the same postcode as the National Party Fiscal Plan. We never get close to the surplus being promised - to the tune of -$48bn across the period to 2027/28
#nzpol HYEFU data today showed that unemployment is forecast to stay much higher than forecast by Treasury at the last election. There will be 76,000 more people on jobseekers by 2027. Wages going up by less every year than forecast at the last election.
December 16, 2025 at 1:49 AM
#nzpol HYEFU data today showed that unemployment is forecast to stay much higher than forecast by Treasury at the last election. There will be 76,000 more people on jobseekers by 2027. Wages going up by less every year than forecast at the last election.
#nzpol Just catching up with the HYEFU data today - but the data looks grim pretty much across the board. One data point stood out to me - the economy will be cumulatively $28.3bn smaller at the next election than predicted by Treasury at the last election.
December 16, 2025 at 1:23 AM
#nzpol Just catching up with the HYEFU data today - but the data looks grim pretty much across the board. One data point stood out to me - the economy will be cumulatively $28.3bn smaller at the next election than predicted by Treasury at the last election.
#nzpol Congratulations to Unions Wellington on the opening of the ‘front door to the union movement’ - resource centre and community & union organising space in Wellington Trades Hall. Come and talk to the lovely people here on Vivian Street about worker rights and organising!
December 13, 2025 at 4:37 AM
#nzpol Congratulations to Unions Wellington on the opening of the ‘front door to the union movement’ - resource centre and community & union organising space in Wellington Trades Hall. Come and talk to the lovely people here on Vivian Street about worker rights and organising!
#nzpol Today the government announced that the minimum wage will rise by 2% in April 2026. On current forecasts this will represent the 3rd successive year in which minimum wage workers will face a real terms cut in pay. Over 3 years full time workers are $4,184 worse off. A 🧵
December 12, 2025 at 3:31 AM
#nzpol Today the government announced that the minimum wage will rise by 2% in April 2026. On current forecasts this will represent the 3rd successive year in which minimum wage workers will face a real terms cut in pay. Over 3 years full time workers are $4,184 worse off. A 🧵
#nzpol Data out today on the economy ahead of the GDP reading next week. It’s a mixed bag – Profits up for firms but not wages. Some sectors are seeing growth, but parts of the private sector are smaller than at the election. This isn’t broad-based growth - we’ve just stopped falling. A 🧵
December 11, 2025 at 1:48 AM
#nzpol Data out today on the economy ahead of the GDP reading next week. It’s a mixed bag – Profits up for firms but not wages. Some sectors are seeing growth, but parts of the private sector are smaller than at the election. This isn’t broad-based growth - we’ve just stopped falling. A 🧵
#nzpol Here at a packed meeting at the Basin Reserve to talk about the SH1 changes. At $3.8bn it’s a lot money - and NZTA is talking about tolling, a regional fuel levy, and a levy on your rates. Nothing to tackle climate change. We need a solution to traffic, but Wellington also needs a fair deal.
December 2, 2025 at 6:34 AM
#nzpol Here at a packed meeting at the Basin Reserve to talk about the SH1 changes. At $3.8bn it’s a lot money - and NZTA is talking about tolling, a regional fuel levy, and a levy on your rates. Nothing to tackle climate change. We need a solution to traffic, but Wellington also needs a fair deal.
#nzpol NZTA put out a very redacted report on the proposed changes to SH1. It shows that the likely cost of the package will be borne by Wellingtonians, regardless of whether they use the roads. Wellington does need new infrastructure, and it needs a fair deal. A🧵
nzta.govt.nz/assets/proje...
nzta.govt.nz/assets/proje...
nzta.govt.nz
December 1, 2025 at 4:47 AM
#nzpol NZTA put out a very redacted report on the proposed changes to SH1. It shows that the likely cost of the package will be borne by Wellingtonians, regardless of whether they use the roads. Wellington does need new infrastructure, and it needs a fair deal. A🧵
nzta.govt.nz/assets/proje...
nzta.govt.nz/assets/proje...
#nzpol Standing in solidarity with @NZPSA workers, and unions here in Auckland. Healthcare workers look after us and our families. The government should come to the bargaining table, listen, and settle this dispute.
November 28, 2025 at 12:28 AM
#nzpol Standing in solidarity with @NZPSA workers, and unions here in Auckland. Healthcare workers look after us and our families. The government should come to the bargaining table, listen, and settle this dispute.
#nzpol Is the government so broke that it will allow "at least three years of ageing Interislander ferries plying the notorious stretch of water with no viable rescue vessel if things go wrong"? thepost.co.nz/nz-news/3608... 1/3
Cook Strait rescue tug going with no replacement
Transport Minister Chris Bishop blames “a significant escalation in costs and little clear benefit” for calling it quits on a replacement.
thepost.co.nz
November 24, 2025 at 11:54 PM
#nzpol Is the government so broke that it will allow "at least three years of ageing Interislander ferries plying the notorious stretch of water with no viable rescue vessel if things go wrong"? thepost.co.nz/nz-news/3608... 1/3
I’m delighted to announce I'm standing as the Labour candidate in Wellington Bays/Rongotai in 2026. I'm thrilled to fight for better jobs, housing, and health services in our community. Look in the bio to donate, volunteer, and help us deliver a better government next year.
November 23, 2025 at 2:27 AM
I’m delighted to announce I'm standing as the Labour candidate in Wellington Bays/Rongotai in 2026. I'm thrilled to fight for better jobs, housing, and health services in our community. Look in the bio to donate, volunteer, and help us deliver a better government next year.
#nzpol Standing with Firefighters who are fighting for better wages and equipment that works. It’s time to support them and keep New Zealanders safe
November 20, 2025 at 11:56 PM
#nzpol Standing with Firefighters who are fighting for better wages and equipment that works. It’s time to support them and keep New Zealanders safe