Crisis Group
@crisisgroup.org
We're an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation, committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict.
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NEW COMMENTARY | @crisisgroup.org’s 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026
2025 was a bloody affair. 2026 promises little better. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood unpack the challenges that lie ahead this year. ⬇️
www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...
2025 was a bloody affair. 2026 promises little better. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood unpack the challenges that lie ahead this year. ⬇️
www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...
🗒️NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Aleppo Escalation Puts Damascus–SDF Integration Agreement under Further Strain
We look at the deadliest clashes between Damascus and Kurdish forces since March 2025 and their implications on integration of Syria’s north east.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
We look at the deadliest clashes between Damascus and Kurdish forces since March 2025 and their implications on integration of Syria’s north east.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Aleppo Escalation Puts Damascus–SDF Integration Agreement under Further Strain | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Nanar Hawach analyses the deadliest clashes between Damascus and Kurdish forces since March 2025 and their implications for efforts to integrate Syria’s north east
www.crisisgroup.org
January 9, 2026 at 5:29 PM
🗒️NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Aleppo Escalation Puts Damascus–SDF Integration Agreement under Further Strain
We look at the deadliest clashes between Damascus and Kurdish forces since March 2025 and their implications on integration of Syria’s north east.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
We look at the deadliest clashes between Damascus and Kurdish forces since March 2025 and their implications on integration of Syria’s north east.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Reposted by Crisis Group
While Venezuelans live with a deeply uncertain future, the seizure of Maduro caps a year of Trump demonstrating ever more brazenly his belief that Washington must have free rein in the Western Hemisphere.
~ @latam.crisisgroup.org @crisisgroup.org
time.com/7344540/trum...
~ @latam.crisisgroup.org @crisisgroup.org
time.com/7344540/trum...
Trump and the Dangers of Spheres of Influence
"Attempting to reorganize the world around spheres of influence is a recipe for disaster. Trump’s Venezuela intervention has brought us a big step closer," write Comfort Ero and Richard Atwood
time.com
January 9, 2026 at 3:17 PM
While Venezuelans live with a deeply uncertain future, the seizure of Maduro caps a year of Trump demonstrating ever more brazenly his belief that Washington must have free rein in the Western Hemisphere.
~ @latam.crisisgroup.org @crisisgroup.org
time.com/7344540/trum...
~ @latam.crisisgroup.org @crisisgroup.org
time.com/7344540/trum...
NEW STATEMENT | Venezuela after Maduro: Transaction or Transition?
Donald Trump has decapitated Venezuela’s government by removing Maduro. But Washington’s declared plan to “run” the country remotely risks leaving Venezuelans worse off than before.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Donald Trump has decapitated Venezuela’s government by removing Maduro. But Washington’s declared plan to “run” the country remotely risks leaving Venezuelans worse off than before.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Venezuela after Maduro: Transaction or Transition? | International Crisis Group
The Trump administration has decapitated the Venezuelan government by staging a dramatic military raid on the capital and removing President Nicolás Maduro to a U.S. jail. Its declared plan to “run” t...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 9, 2026 at 1:30 PM
NEW STATEMENT | Venezuela after Maduro: Transaction or Transition?
Donald Trump has decapitated Venezuela’s government by removing Maduro. But Washington’s declared plan to “run” the country remotely risks leaving Venezuelans worse off than before.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Donald Trump has decapitated Venezuela’s government by removing Maduro. But Washington’s declared plan to “run” the country remotely risks leaving Venezuelans worse off than before.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
NEW OP-ED | Trump and the Dangers of Spheres of Influence
The seizure of Maduro caps a year of Trump demonstrating ever more brazenly that Washington must have free rein in the Western Hemisphere. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood explain the dangers in TIME.
time.com/7344540/trum...
The seizure of Maduro caps a year of Trump demonstrating ever more brazenly that Washington must have free rein in the Western Hemisphere. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood explain the dangers in TIME.
time.com/7344540/trum...
Trump and the Dangers of Spheres of Influence
"Attempting to reorganize the world around spheres of influence is a recipe for disaster. Trump’s Venezuela intervention has brought us a big step closer," write Comfort Ero and Richard Atwood
time.com
January 9, 2026 at 11:07 AM
NEW OP-ED | Trump and the Dangers of Spheres of Influence
The seizure of Maduro caps a year of Trump demonstrating ever more brazenly that Washington must have free rein in the Western Hemisphere. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood explain the dangers in TIME.
time.com/7344540/trum...
The seizure of Maduro caps a year of Trump demonstrating ever more brazenly that Washington must have free rein in the Western Hemisphere. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood explain the dangers in TIME.
time.com/7344540/trum...
UPCOMING EVENT | Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2026
Conflict is surging. Now, a chaotic start to 2026: crisis in Venezuela, Trump eyeing Greenland, global norms fraying.
Register for @comfortero.crisisgroup.org & @chathamhouse.org’s Marion Messmer discussion now.
chathamhouse.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Conflict is surging. Now, a chaotic start to 2026: crisis in Venezuela, Trump eyeing Greenland, global norms fraying.
Register for @comfortero.crisisgroup.org & @chathamhouse.org’s Marion Messmer discussion now.
chathamhouse.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
January 9, 2026 at 9:42 AM
UPCOMING EVENT | Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2026
Conflict is surging. Now, a chaotic start to 2026: crisis in Venezuela, Trump eyeing Greenland, global norms fraying.
Register for @comfortero.crisisgroup.org & @chathamhouse.org’s Marion Messmer discussion now.
chathamhouse.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Conflict is surging. Now, a chaotic start to 2026: crisis in Venezuela, Trump eyeing Greenland, global norms fraying.
Register for @comfortero.crisisgroup.org & @chathamhouse.org’s Marion Messmer discussion now.
chathamhouse.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
🚨 New update from our global conflict tracker.
⚡️ 5 risk alerts in January
↘️ 11 conflict deteriorations
www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch?...
⚡️ 5 risk alerts in January
↘️ 11 conflict deteriorations
www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch?...
January 8, 2026 at 8:53 AM
🚨 New update from our global conflict tracker.
⚡️ 5 risk alerts in January
↘️ 11 conflict deteriorations
www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch?...
⚡️ 5 risk alerts in January
↘️ 11 conflict deteriorations
www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch?...
Reposted by Crisis Group
Pleased to speak with ABC Radio Australia about the legal issues raised by the US military intervention in Venezuela, the prosecution of Maduro, and further US threats of the use of force.
www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...
www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...
US President Donald Trump issues threats, as Nicolás Maduro faces court - ABC listen
Just who controls Venezuela remains an open question... the country's captured leader Nicolás Maduro has appeared in a Manhattan court, pleading not guilty to multiple charges .... and declaring I am ...
www.abc.net.au
January 6, 2026 at 12:20 PM
Pleased to speak with ABC Radio Australia about the legal issues raised by the US military intervention in Venezuela, the prosecution of Maduro, and further US threats of the use of force.
www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...
www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...
Reposted by Crisis Group
Honored to have my war powers scholarship referenced by @charliesavage.bsky.social in @nytimes.com.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/u...
Justice Dept. Memo Approved Military Incursion Into Venezuela as Lawful
www.nytimes.com
January 7, 2026 at 1:26 AM
Honored to have my war powers scholarship referenced by @charliesavage.bsky.social in @nytimes.com.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/u...
Reposted by Crisis Group
Very illegal
How illegal was the invasion of Venezuela? What's next for Maduro? And why are we talking about Bill Barr in the year 2026?
@bcfinucane.bsky.social joined me and @andrewtorrez.bsky.social to explain it all
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...
@bcfinucane.bsky.social joined me and @andrewtorrez.bsky.social to explain it all
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...
Ep 193 — The Fog of War … Crimes
Podcast Episode · Law and Chaos · 01/06/2026 · 1h 7m
podcasts.apple.com
January 7, 2026 at 3:56 AM
Very illegal
Reposted by Crisis Group
My colleague in Caracas, Phil Gunson, on what next for Venezuela.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 5, 2026 at 4:31 PM
My colleague in Caracas, Phil Gunson, on what next for Venezuela.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Reposted by Crisis Group
Important podcast episode on what is next for Venezuela.
Fresh off the press from @crisisgroup.org.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Fresh off the press from @crisisgroup.org.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 5, 2026 at 6:14 PM
Important podcast episode on what is next for Venezuela.
Fresh off the press from @crisisgroup.org.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Fresh off the press from @crisisgroup.org.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Reposted by Crisis Group
Today I joined @kqedforum.bsky.social with @sangernyt.bsky.social to discuss the latest on #Venezuela, what comes next, and political fallout at home & abroad.
Maduro was removed, but the regime remains in tact, the oil industry in ruins, & deep uncertainty ahead
🎧👇
www.kqed.org/forum/201010...
Maduro was removed, but the regime remains in tact, the oil industry in ruins, & deep uncertainty ahead
🎧👇
www.kqed.org/forum/201010...
What’s Next For the U.S. in Venezuela After Maduro’s Capture? | KQED
In a press conference on Saturday after Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured, President Trump said the U.S. would “run” Venezuela until a proper transition was in place. Trump said “he’s n...
www.kqed.org
January 5, 2026 at 10:16 PM
Today I joined @kqedforum.bsky.social with @sangernyt.bsky.social to discuss the latest on #Venezuela, what comes next, and political fallout at home & abroad.
Maduro was removed, but the regime remains in tact, the oil industry in ruins, & deep uncertainty ahead
🎧👇
www.kqed.org/forum/201010...
Maduro was removed, but the regime remains in tact, the oil industry in ruins, & deep uncertainty ahead
🎧👇
www.kqed.org/forum/201010...
🇻🇪 In this interview with Le Monde, our analyst @philgunson.bsky.social explains the unfolding crisis in Venezuela and the fallout of Maduro’s capture. www.lemonde.fr/internationa...
Phil Gunson : « Si Trump n’oblige pas le gouvernement vénézuélien à organiser des élections libres, ils peuvent s’entendre sur presque tout »
Installé à Caracas, l’analyste de l’International Crisis Group relève que le président américain a eu des « mots durs » pour l’opposante Maria Corina Machado et juge possible un accord entre son admin...
www.lemonde.fr
January 6, 2026 at 12:33 PM
🇻🇪 In this interview with Le Monde, our analyst @philgunson.bsky.social explains the unfolding crisis in Venezuela and the fallout of Maduro’s capture. www.lemonde.fr/internationa...
The military regime that seized power in 2021, driving Myanmar into all-out civil war, has gained the upper hand after a period in which rebels looked ascendant. But the war is far from over. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
January 6, 2026 at 10:41 AM
The military regime that seized power in 2021, driving Myanmar into all-out civil war, has gained the upper hand after a period in which rebels looked ascendant. But the war is far from over. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
The U.S. and Iran should shore up what is, in effect, a tense truce in 2026.
But Israel looks ever likelier to act in an attempt to finish the job, and the next round of fighting may well be worse than the last.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
But Israel looks ever likelier to act in an attempt to finish the job, and the next round of fighting may well be worse than the last.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
January 6, 2026 at 9:57 AM
The U.S. and Iran should shore up what is, in effect, a tense truce in 2026.
But Israel looks ever likelier to act in an attempt to finish the job, and the next round of fighting may well be worse than the last.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
But Israel looks ever likelier to act in an attempt to finish the job, and the next round of fighting may well be worse than the last.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
After short wars in 2025 with both Afghanistan and India, another major attack by militants could upend the precarious calm that prevails between Pakistan and its two neighbours. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
January 6, 2026 at 9:02 AM
After short wars in 2025 with both Afghanistan and India, another major attack by militants could upend the precarious calm that prevails between Pakistan and its two neighbours. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
Since seizing power in Syria, President Ahmed al-Sharaa has won over a sceptical world. But the leader’s gains abroad could be undone in 2026 if he cannot curb sectarian bloodletting at home.
Formidable challenges remain, even with sanctions lifted.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
Formidable challenges remain, even with sanctions lifted.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
January 6, 2026 at 8:58 AM
Since seizing power in Syria, President Ahmed al-Sharaa has won over a sceptical world. But the leader’s gains abroad could be undone in 2026 if he cannot curb sectarian bloodletting at home.
Formidable challenges remain, even with sanctions lifted.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
Formidable challenges remain, even with sanctions lifted.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
Reposted by Crisis Group
“Trump had his own agenda, it was not the same agenda as the opposition leadership. So for many people this is going to mean a great deal of heart searching. They're going to have to acknowledge that Trump really is not working for them, he's working for himself.”
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 5, 2026 at 5:22 PM
“Trump had his own agenda, it was not the same agenda as the opposition leadership. So for many people this is going to mean a great deal of heart searching. They're going to have to acknowledge that Trump really is not working for them, he's working for himself.”
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
🎧 SPECIAL EPISODE | Hold Your Fire!
In this special edition, we speak with @philgunson.bsky.social about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela over the weekend that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and what may come next.
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
In this special edition, we speak with @philgunson.bsky.social about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela over the weekend that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and what may come next.
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 5, 2026 at 4:06 PM
🎧 SPECIAL EPISODE | Hold Your Fire!
In this special edition, we speak with @philgunson.bsky.social about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela over the weekend that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and what may come next.
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
In this special edition, we speak with @philgunson.bsky.social about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela over the weekend that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and what may come next.
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
Reposted by Crisis Group
It's hard to overstate the significance of this moment and what comes next so I've asked @bcfinucane.bsky.social of @crisisgroup.org to join me in conversation. Brian served as a State Department legal adviser (2011-21), focusing on law of armed conflict and counterterrorism. More info in comments.
January 5, 2026 at 3:50 PM
It's hard to overstate the significance of this moment and what comes next so I've asked @bcfinucane.bsky.social of @crisisgroup.org to join me in conversation. Brian served as a State Department legal adviser (2011-21), focusing on law of armed conflict and counterterrorism. More info in comments.
What changed is less the battlefield than the politics – thanks to President Trump’s upending of U.S. support for Ukraine.
How events in 2026 will unfold is hard to know. The likeliest scenario is a continued brutal slog at the front. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
How events in 2026 will unfold is hard to know. The likeliest scenario is a continued brutal slog at the front. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
January 5, 2026 at 12:05 PM
What changed is less the battlefield than the politics – thanks to President Trump’s upending of U.S. support for Ukraine.
How events in 2026 will unfold is hard to know. The likeliest scenario is a continued brutal slog at the front. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
How events in 2026 will unfold is hard to know. The likeliest scenario is a continued brutal slog at the front. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
Donald Trump is best positioned to halt the war in Sudan but it will be a tall order to piece the country back together after this devastating war. We explain how Washington can help end the world’s worst humanitarian calamity. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
January 5, 2026 at 11:27 AM
Donald Trump is best positioned to halt the war in Sudan but it will be a tall order to piece the country back together after this devastating war. We explain how Washington can help end the world’s worst humanitarian calamity. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
Reposted by Crisis Group
Maduro was removed, but his government - a complex system of competing power and interests - remains in place.
I spoke with Australian Broadcasting Corp about the challenges and risks ahead @crisisgroup.org
www.facebook.com/share/v/1FfL...
I spoke with Australian Broadcasting Corp about the challenges and risks ahead @crisisgroup.org
www.facebook.com/share/v/1FfL...
Redirecting...
www.facebook.com
January 5, 2026 at 12:20 AM
Maduro was removed, but his government - a complex system of competing power and interests - remains in place.
I spoke with Australian Broadcasting Corp about the challenges and risks ahead @crisisgroup.org
www.facebook.com/share/v/1FfL...
I spoke with Australian Broadcasting Corp about the challenges and risks ahead @crisisgroup.org
www.facebook.com/share/v/1FfL...
Reposted by Crisis Group
Pleased to speak with @charliesavage.bsky.social about how the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela breaches the UN Charter and the Take Care Clause of the U.S. Constitution.
Legal Issues Raised by Trump’s Seizure of Maduro, Explained
The operation revives disputes over the legality of the 1989 Panama intervention, enhanced by President Trump’s vow to “run” Venezuela and Nicolás Maduro’s formal status as president.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/u...
The operation revives disputes over the legality of the 1989 Panama intervention, enhanced by President Trump’s vow to “run” Venezuela and Nicolás Maduro’s formal status as president.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/u...
Legal Issues Raised by Trump’s Seizure of Maduro, Explained
www.nytimes.com
January 3, 2026 at 8:00 PM
Pleased to speak with @charliesavage.bsky.social about how the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela breaches the UN Charter and the Take Care Clause of the U.S. Constitution.
Reposted by Crisis Group
Pleased to speak with @ellenwapo.bsky.social.
As I told her, calling the invasion of Venezuela a law enforcement operation doesn’t make it legal.
“It’s still an unlawful use of force against another state under international law.”
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
As I told her, calling the invasion of Venezuela a law enforcement operation doesn’t make it legal.
“It’s still an unlawful use of force against another state under international law.”
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Audacious Maduro raid relied on months of preparation, surprise strike
Under cover of darkness, highly trained Delta Force troops arrived by helicopter and descended into a compound to grab the Venezuelan president and his wife.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 4, 2026 at 1:26 AM
Pleased to speak with @ellenwapo.bsky.social.
As I told her, calling the invasion of Venezuela a law enforcement operation doesn’t make it legal.
“It’s still an unlawful use of force against another state under international law.”
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
As I told her, calling the invasion of Venezuela a law enforcement operation doesn’t make it legal.
“It’s still an unlawful use of force against another state under international law.”
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...