Crisis Group
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@crisisgroup.org
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NEW COMMENTARY | @crisisgroup.org’s 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026
2025 was a bloody affair. 2026 promises little better. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood unpack the challenges that lie ahead this year. ⬇️
www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...
2025 was a bloody affair. 2026 promises little better. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood unpack the challenges that lie ahead this year. ⬇️
www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...
NEW Q&A | Uganda Holds Elections under the Shadow of an Uncertain Future
Uganda’s president will likely retain power in forthcoming polls. However, all eyes remain on the succession race to come. Our experts examine the stakes.
www.crisisgroup.org/africa/ugand...
Uganda’s president will likely retain power in forthcoming polls. However, all eyes remain on the succession race to come. Our experts examine the stakes.
www.crisisgroup.org/africa/ugand...
Uganda Holds Elections under the Shadow of an Uncertain Future | International Crisis Group
Uganda’s octogenarian president will likely retain power in forthcoming polls. But all eyes are on the succession race to come in a country that is pivotal to stability in its neighbourhood. In this Q...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 12, 2026 at 2:58 PM
NEW Q&A | Uganda Holds Elections under the Shadow of an Uncertain Future
Uganda’s president will likely retain power in forthcoming polls. However, all eyes remain on the succession race to come. Our experts examine the stakes.
www.crisisgroup.org/africa/ugand...
Uganda’s president will likely retain power in forthcoming polls. However, all eyes remain on the succession race to come. Our experts examine the stakes.
www.crisisgroup.org/africa/ugand...
Reposted by Crisis Group
Voters go to the polls in Uganda on 15 January.
Question: what might these elections portend for Uganda after Museveni departs? The clock is ticking for Uganda’s long-serving leader and many are contemplating the post-Museveni transition that is surely coming.
www.crisisgroup.org/africa/ugand...
Question: what might these elections portend for Uganda after Museveni departs? The clock is ticking for Uganda’s long-serving leader and many are contemplating the post-Museveni transition that is surely coming.
www.crisisgroup.org/africa/ugand...
Uganda Holds Elections under the Shadow of an Uncertain Future | International Crisis Group
Uganda’s octogenarian president will likely retain power in forthcoming polls. But all eyes are on the succession race to come in a country that is pivotal to stability in its neighbourhood. In this Q...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 12, 2026 at 12:13 PM
Voters go to the polls in Uganda on 15 January.
Question: what might these elections portend for Uganda after Museveni departs? The clock is ticking for Uganda’s long-serving leader and many are contemplating the post-Museveni transition that is surely coming.
www.crisisgroup.org/africa/ugand...
Question: what might these elections portend for Uganda after Museveni departs? The clock is ticking for Uganda’s long-serving leader and many are contemplating the post-Museveni transition that is surely coming.
www.crisisgroup.org/africa/ugand...
“At least having their own streets under their control is what they see as essential for their own survival, even if it invites a US strike.”
@alivaez.bsky.social speaking with @cnn.com on protests in Iran.
edition.cnn.com/2026/01/11/m...
@alivaez.bsky.social speaking with @cnn.com on protests in Iran.
edition.cnn.com/2026/01/11/m...
Iran’s troubled regime cracks down hard as Trump ratchets up pressure | CNN
As furious protests enter their third week and bring Iran to the precipice of change, the country’s theocratic government is trying to survive by harshly cracking down on the widening demonstrations.
edition.cnn.com
January 12, 2026 at 10:39 AM
“At least having their own streets under their control is what they see as essential for their own survival, even if it invites a US strike.”
@alivaez.bsky.social speaking with @cnn.com on protests in Iran.
edition.cnn.com/2026/01/11/m...
@alivaez.bsky.social speaking with @cnn.com on protests in Iran.
edition.cnn.com/2026/01/11/m...
NEW UPDATE | On Our Radar
🔴 Demonstrations in Iran have grown into nationwide anti-regime unrest.
🔴 Lebanon says it has passed a milestone in disarming Hizbollah.
🔴 Provisional results for CAR are out after the general elections.
www.crisisgroup.org/global/our-r...
🔴 Demonstrations in Iran have grown into nationwide anti-regime unrest.
🔴 Lebanon says it has passed a milestone in disarming Hizbollah.
🔴 Provisional results for CAR are out after the general elections.
www.crisisgroup.org/global/our-r...
January 12, 2026 at 9:30 AM
NEW UPDATE | On Our Radar
🔴 Demonstrations in Iran have grown into nationwide anti-regime unrest.
🔴 Lebanon says it has passed a milestone in disarming Hizbollah.
🔴 Provisional results for CAR are out after the general elections.
www.crisisgroup.org/global/our-r...
🔴 Demonstrations in Iran have grown into nationwide anti-regime unrest.
🔴 Lebanon says it has passed a milestone in disarming Hizbollah.
🔴 Provisional results for CAR are out after the general elections.
www.crisisgroup.org/global/our-r...
NEW COMMENTARY | How the World Sees the U.S. Raid in Venezuela
The U.S. operation grabbing President Nicolás Maduro caused disquiet in many capitals around the globe. @crisisgroup.org offers a 360-degree view of the reactions and their implications.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
The U.S. operation grabbing President Nicolás Maduro caused disquiet in many capitals around the globe. @crisisgroup.org offers a 360-degree view of the reactions and their implications.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
How the World Sees the U.S. Raid in Venezuela | International Crisis Group
The U.S. operation grabbing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro caused disquiet in many capitals around the globe, not least due to subsequent talk of seizing Greenland. But several governments have t...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 12, 2026 at 8:16 AM
NEW COMMENTARY | How the World Sees the U.S. Raid in Venezuela
The U.S. operation grabbing President Nicolás Maduro caused disquiet in many capitals around the globe. @crisisgroup.org offers a 360-degree view of the reactions and their implications.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
The U.S. operation grabbing President Nicolás Maduro caused disquiet in many capitals around the globe. @crisisgroup.org offers a 360-degree view of the reactions and their implications.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Reposted by Crisis Group
Trump appears focused on forcing Caracas to accept what amounts to neocolonial tutelage & pillage of its oil. But there can’t be resolution of Venezuela’s deep-rooted, long-running conflict w/out comprehensive negotiations & sustained gradual political transition.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
January 10, 2026 at 10:40 AM
Trump appears focused on forcing Caracas to accept what amounts to neocolonial tutelage & pillage of its oil. But there can’t be resolution of Venezuela’s deep-rooted, long-running conflict w/out comprehensive negotiations & sustained gradual political transition.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
🗒️NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Aleppo Escalation Puts Damascus–SDF Integration Agreement under Further Strain
We look at the deadliest clashes between Damascus and Kurdish forces since March 2025 and their implications on integration of Syria’s north east.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
We look at the deadliest clashes between Damascus and Kurdish forces since March 2025 and their implications on integration of Syria’s north east.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Aleppo Escalation Puts Damascus–SDF Integration Agreement under Further Strain | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Nanar Hawach analyses the deadliest clashes between Damascus and Kurdish forces since March 2025 and their implications for efforts to integrate Syria’s north east
www.crisisgroup.org
January 9, 2026 at 5:29 PM
🗒️NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Aleppo Escalation Puts Damascus–SDF Integration Agreement under Further Strain
We look at the deadliest clashes between Damascus and Kurdish forces since March 2025 and their implications on integration of Syria’s north east.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
We look at the deadliest clashes between Damascus and Kurdish forces since March 2025 and their implications on integration of Syria’s north east.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Reposted by Crisis Group
While Venezuelans live with a deeply uncertain future, the seizure of Maduro caps a year of Trump demonstrating ever more brazenly his belief that Washington must have free rein in the Western Hemisphere.
~ @latam.crisisgroup.org @crisisgroup.org
time.com/7344540/trum...
~ @latam.crisisgroup.org @crisisgroup.org
time.com/7344540/trum...
Trump and the Dangers of Spheres of Influence
"Attempting to reorganize the world around spheres of influence is a recipe for disaster. Trump’s Venezuela intervention has brought us a big step closer," write Comfort Ero and Richard Atwood
time.com
January 9, 2026 at 3:17 PM
While Venezuelans live with a deeply uncertain future, the seizure of Maduro caps a year of Trump demonstrating ever more brazenly his belief that Washington must have free rein in the Western Hemisphere.
~ @latam.crisisgroup.org @crisisgroup.org
time.com/7344540/trum...
~ @latam.crisisgroup.org @crisisgroup.org
time.com/7344540/trum...
NEW STATEMENT | Venezuela after Maduro: Transaction or Transition?
Donald Trump has decapitated Venezuela’s government by removing Maduro. But Washington’s declared plan to “run” the country remotely risks leaving Venezuelans worse off than before.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Donald Trump has decapitated Venezuela’s government by removing Maduro. But Washington’s declared plan to “run” the country remotely risks leaving Venezuelans worse off than before.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Venezuela after Maduro: Transaction or Transition? | International Crisis Group
The Trump administration has decapitated the Venezuelan government by staging a dramatic military raid on the capital and removing President Nicolás Maduro to a U.S. jail. Its declared plan to “run” t...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 9, 2026 at 1:30 PM
NEW STATEMENT | Venezuela after Maduro: Transaction or Transition?
Donald Trump has decapitated Venezuela’s government by removing Maduro. But Washington’s declared plan to “run” the country remotely risks leaving Venezuelans worse off than before.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Donald Trump has decapitated Venezuela’s government by removing Maduro. But Washington’s declared plan to “run” the country remotely risks leaving Venezuelans worse off than before.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
NEW OP-ED | Trump and the Dangers of Spheres of Influence
The seizure of Maduro caps a year of Trump demonstrating ever more brazenly that Washington must have free rein in the Western Hemisphere. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood explain the dangers in TIME.
time.com/7344540/trum...
The seizure of Maduro caps a year of Trump demonstrating ever more brazenly that Washington must have free rein in the Western Hemisphere. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood explain the dangers in TIME.
time.com/7344540/trum...
Trump and the Dangers of Spheres of Influence
"Attempting to reorganize the world around spheres of influence is a recipe for disaster. Trump’s Venezuela intervention has brought us a big step closer," write Comfort Ero and Richard Atwood
time.com
January 9, 2026 at 11:07 AM
NEW OP-ED | Trump and the Dangers of Spheres of Influence
The seizure of Maduro caps a year of Trump demonstrating ever more brazenly that Washington must have free rein in the Western Hemisphere. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood explain the dangers in TIME.
time.com/7344540/trum...
The seizure of Maduro caps a year of Trump demonstrating ever more brazenly that Washington must have free rein in the Western Hemisphere. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood explain the dangers in TIME.
time.com/7344540/trum...
UPCOMING EVENT | Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2026
Conflict is surging. Now, a chaotic start to 2026: crisis in Venezuela, Trump eyeing Greenland, global norms fraying.
Register for @comfortero.crisisgroup.org & @chathamhouse.org’s Marion Messmer discussion now.
chathamhouse.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Conflict is surging. Now, a chaotic start to 2026: crisis in Venezuela, Trump eyeing Greenland, global norms fraying.
Register for @comfortero.crisisgroup.org & @chathamhouse.org’s Marion Messmer discussion now.
chathamhouse.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
January 9, 2026 at 9:42 AM
UPCOMING EVENT | Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2026
Conflict is surging. Now, a chaotic start to 2026: crisis in Venezuela, Trump eyeing Greenland, global norms fraying.
Register for @comfortero.crisisgroup.org & @chathamhouse.org’s Marion Messmer discussion now.
chathamhouse.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Conflict is surging. Now, a chaotic start to 2026: crisis in Venezuela, Trump eyeing Greenland, global norms fraying.
Register for @comfortero.crisisgroup.org & @chathamhouse.org’s Marion Messmer discussion now.
chathamhouse.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
🚨 New update from our global conflict tracker.
⚡️ 5 risk alerts in January
↘️ 11 conflict deteriorations
www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch?...
⚡️ 5 risk alerts in January
↘️ 11 conflict deteriorations
www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch?...
January 8, 2026 at 8:53 AM
🚨 New update from our global conflict tracker.
⚡️ 5 risk alerts in January
↘️ 11 conflict deteriorations
www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch?...
⚡️ 5 risk alerts in January
↘️ 11 conflict deteriorations
www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch?...
Reposted by Crisis Group
Pleased to speak with ABC Radio Australia about the legal issues raised by the US military intervention in Venezuela, the prosecution of Maduro, and further US threats of the use of force.
www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...
www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...
US President Donald Trump issues threats, as Nicolás Maduro faces court - ABC listen
Just who controls Venezuela remains an open question... the country's captured leader Nicolás Maduro has appeared in a Manhattan court, pleading not guilty to multiple charges .... and declaring I am ...
www.abc.net.au
January 6, 2026 at 12:20 PM
Pleased to speak with ABC Radio Australia about the legal issues raised by the US military intervention in Venezuela, the prosecution of Maduro, and further US threats of the use of force.
www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...
www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...
Reposted by Crisis Group
Honored to have my war powers scholarship referenced by @charliesavage.bsky.social in @nytimes.com.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/u...
Justice Dept. Memo Approved Military Incursion Into Venezuela as Lawful
www.nytimes.com
January 7, 2026 at 1:26 AM
Honored to have my war powers scholarship referenced by @charliesavage.bsky.social in @nytimes.com.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/u...
Reposted by Crisis Group
Very illegal
How illegal was the invasion of Venezuela? What's next for Maduro? And why are we talking about Bill Barr in the year 2026?
@bcfinucane.bsky.social joined me and @andrewtorrez.bsky.social to explain it all
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...
@bcfinucane.bsky.social joined me and @andrewtorrez.bsky.social to explain it all
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...
Ep 193 — The Fog of War … Crimes
Podcast Episode · Law and Chaos · 01/06/2026 · 1h 7m
podcasts.apple.com
January 7, 2026 at 3:56 AM
Very illegal
Reposted by Crisis Group
My colleague in Caracas, Phil Gunson, on what next for Venezuela.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 5, 2026 at 4:31 PM
My colleague in Caracas, Phil Gunson, on what next for Venezuela.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Reposted by Crisis Group
Important podcast episode on what is next for Venezuela.
Fresh off the press from @crisisgroup.org.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Fresh off the press from @crisisgroup.org.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 5, 2026 at 6:14 PM
Important podcast episode on what is next for Venezuela.
Fresh off the press from @crisisgroup.org.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Fresh off the press from @crisisgroup.org.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Reposted by Crisis Group
Today I joined @kqedforum.bsky.social with @sangernyt.bsky.social to discuss the latest on #Venezuela, what comes next, and political fallout at home & abroad.
Maduro was removed, but the regime remains in tact, the oil industry in ruins, & deep uncertainty ahead
🎧👇
www.kqed.org/forum/201010...
Maduro was removed, but the regime remains in tact, the oil industry in ruins, & deep uncertainty ahead
🎧👇
www.kqed.org/forum/201010...
What’s Next For the U.S. in Venezuela After Maduro’s Capture? | KQED
In a press conference on Saturday after Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured, President Trump said the U.S. would “run” Venezuela until a proper transition was in place. Trump said “he’s n...
www.kqed.org
January 5, 2026 at 10:16 PM
Today I joined @kqedforum.bsky.social with @sangernyt.bsky.social to discuss the latest on #Venezuela, what comes next, and political fallout at home & abroad.
Maduro was removed, but the regime remains in tact, the oil industry in ruins, & deep uncertainty ahead
🎧👇
www.kqed.org/forum/201010...
Maduro was removed, but the regime remains in tact, the oil industry in ruins, & deep uncertainty ahead
🎧👇
www.kqed.org/forum/201010...
🇻🇪 In this interview with Le Monde, our analyst @philgunson.bsky.social explains the unfolding crisis in Venezuela and the fallout of Maduro’s capture. www.lemonde.fr/internationa...
Phil Gunson : « Si Trump n’oblige pas le gouvernement vénézuélien à organiser des élections libres, ils peuvent s’entendre sur presque tout »
Installé à Caracas, l’analyste de l’International Crisis Group relève que le président américain a eu des « mots durs » pour l’opposante Maria Corina Machado et juge possible un accord entre son admin...
www.lemonde.fr
January 6, 2026 at 12:33 PM
🇻🇪 In this interview with Le Monde, our analyst @philgunson.bsky.social explains the unfolding crisis in Venezuela and the fallout of Maduro’s capture. www.lemonde.fr/internationa...
The military regime that seized power in 2021, driving Myanmar into all-out civil war, has gained the upper hand after a period in which rebels looked ascendant. But the war is far from over. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
January 6, 2026 at 10:41 AM
The military regime that seized power in 2021, driving Myanmar into all-out civil war, has gained the upper hand after a period in which rebels looked ascendant. But the war is far from over. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
The U.S. and Iran should shore up what is, in effect, a tense truce in 2026.
But Israel looks ever likelier to act in an attempt to finish the job, and the next round of fighting may well be worse than the last.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
But Israel looks ever likelier to act in an attempt to finish the job, and the next round of fighting may well be worse than the last.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
January 6, 2026 at 9:57 AM
The U.S. and Iran should shore up what is, in effect, a tense truce in 2026.
But Israel looks ever likelier to act in an attempt to finish the job, and the next round of fighting may well be worse than the last.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
But Israel looks ever likelier to act in an attempt to finish the job, and the next round of fighting may well be worse than the last.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
After short wars in 2025 with both Afghanistan and India, another major attack by militants could upend the precarious calm that prevails between Pakistan and its two neighbours. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
January 6, 2026 at 9:02 AM
After short wars in 2025 with both Afghanistan and India, another major attack by militants could upend the precarious calm that prevails between Pakistan and its two neighbours. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
Since seizing power in Syria, President Ahmed al-Sharaa has won over a sceptical world. But the leader’s gains abroad could be undone in 2026 if he cannot curb sectarian bloodletting at home.
Formidable challenges remain, even with sanctions lifted.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
Formidable challenges remain, even with sanctions lifted.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
January 6, 2026 at 8:58 AM
Since seizing power in Syria, President Ahmed al-Sharaa has won over a sceptical world. But the leader’s gains abroad could be undone in 2026 if he cannot curb sectarian bloodletting at home.
Formidable challenges remain, even with sanctions lifted.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
Formidable challenges remain, even with sanctions lifted.
www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
Reposted by Crisis Group
“Trump had his own agenda, it was not the same agenda as the opposition leadership. So for many people this is going to mean a great deal of heart searching. They're going to have to acknowledge that Trump really is not working for them, he's working for himself.”
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 5, 2026 at 5:22 PM
“Trump had his own agenda, it was not the same agenda as the opposition leadership. So for many people this is going to mean a great deal of heart searching. They're going to have to acknowledge that Trump really is not working for them, he's working for himself.”
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
🎧 SPECIAL EPISODE | Hold Your Fire!
In this special edition, we speak with @philgunson.bsky.social about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela over the weekend that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and what may come next.
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
In this special edition, we speak with @philgunson.bsky.social about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela over the weekend that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and what may come next.
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 5, 2026 at 4:06 PM
🎧 SPECIAL EPISODE | Hold Your Fire!
In this special edition, we speak with @philgunson.bsky.social about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela over the weekend that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and what may come next.
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
In this special edition, we speak with @philgunson.bsky.social about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela over the weekend that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and what may come next.
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...