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Dan Kennett

@dankennett.co.uk

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Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · Dec 27

Been meaning to do this for a while but not got round to it, a public information thread on DUELS, particularly ground duels. They're being used more and more in the mainstream (which is good) but I don't think many understand the detail. Thread: 🧵

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Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 1d

It's both!
The buildup needs to improve AND the OOP needs to improve

Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 1d

I know you are being facetious but the actual problem is at 0-0
We aren't creating enough in attack and we are conceding too much in defence. Other than that its really good

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Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 1d

The issue when tied is mostly on the attacking side. Only 1.3 xg p90 which is 1.1 below last season
On the defensive side we are 1.2 xga p90 vs 0.8 last season

Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 1d

No adjustments but last years data is whole season including the dead rubbers when we had a worse defensive record than Southampton

Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 1d

two men are sitting in front of a crowd talking about strategy

ALT: two men are sitting in front of a crowd talking about strategy

media.tenor.com

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Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 1d

XG difference in each Game State.
Arsenal have improved but still a step below #lfc last season.
Meanwhile LFC have lost their superpower and have no control over games.

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Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 1d

% of PL matches spent in each Game State
#LFC and #AFC last 2 seasons
Arsenal virtually unchanged, #LFC 30% lower

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Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 6d

The problem with UP is that Analysing matches gets in the way of nerdery

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Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 6d

Is there demand for an advanced footy nerdery pod?

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Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 6d

Positive obv values for complete passes in own half are tiny, like 0.001
But a bad one could be -0.1 or lower!
That's x100 more impactful

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Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 6d

And a lot more than last season. It's only typically centre forwards who have a negative pass OBV
Ibou actually has the highest pass% in the team with 91.5% , its just that his incompletions are worse than before
Here's the lowest pass OBVs in the PL this season

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Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 6d

It's about £6k a year cheaper than a hudl license...
You also get the pressures that used to be on fbref plus xPassing and their XG data

Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 6d

Doesn't it make you ponder about why a player can have 2k progressive metres (and 29 PP) yet an overall negative pass OBV?
@gregoryjanks.bsky.social

Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 6d

Yes

Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 6d

This is an example of what you get (last season PL)

Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 6d

No viz at all, just match totals by player. Quant data

Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 6d

Episode 6 of The Hack

a cartoon of a chef with a needle in his mouth is playing at 4:32

ALT: a cartoon of a chef with a needle in his mouth is playing at 4:32

media.tenor.com

Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 6d

It's PV, not XT
The key difference is the former includes negative values for harmful events
The latter does not

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Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 6d

I wrote about this substack.com/@dankennett9...

Value Added Tax

Exploring Liverpool's 25/26 Progression Problem

substack.com

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Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 6d

Soz

Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 6d

United's issue is that they are 20th in performance vs XG...currently -5.2 goals under!
That's the kind of thing that can start to correct itself...(unless your team contains a Benteke type forward)

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Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 6d

Leaving aside the obvious that they can't afford to sack him, it's worth noting United's attack this season:
Shots 1st
SOT 2nd
XG 1st
Non-Pen XG 3rd
NPXG/Shot 5th

www.bbc.co.uk/sport/footba...

Ruben Amorim: Manchester United boss needs three years to prove himself a 'great' coach, says co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe

Manchester United co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe says manager Ruben Amorim needs three years to prove he is a

www.bbc.co.uk

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Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 7d

Yeah, all in the substack post

Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 7d

Each event has its own OBV, positive or negative.
Watch the video in the post to understand the detail of how it works

Reposted by Dan Kennett

Dan Kennett @dankennett.co.uk · 7d

open.substack.com/pub/dankenne...
New substack post from me exploring #LFC's progression problems (warning ⚠️ contains nerdery)

Value Added Tax

Exploring Liverpool's 25/26 Progression Problem

open.substack.com

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