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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 1d

3/3 ...Rather, it is also an acknowledgement that Tech stocks have historically generated a significant portion of overall index returns. Markets often underestimate the profit potential of disruptive innovation over the medium and long term.

DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 1d

2/3 ...The Tech premium stems not just from enthusiasm over Gen AI; many hyperscalers trade in line with Tech generally...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 1d

1/3 Broadly speaking, S&P 500 company valuations come in 2 flavors. Tech stocks are primarily (67 pct, on average) valued on future growth. Non-Tech names tend to be closer to 50/50 present earnings/future growth...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 1d

2/2 …The most successful of these companies are likely to list on American exchanges in the coming years, which is why we continue to prefer US large cap equities over other geographies.

DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 1d

1/2 Just like US Big Tech, VCs are doubling down on what they think is the “next big thing”: Gen AI. The AI sector – particularly large/US based startups – has helped push global venture funding above $90 bn for the past 4 quarters, levels not seen since Q3 2022 according to @crunchbase.bsky.social…

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 1d

US mutual fund/ETF investors finished Q3 by turning bullish on US stocks and commodities (mostly gold), an example of how each type of investment can find buyers at the same time.

DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 1d

2/2 ...This has caused some concern that stocks are vulnerable, but we believe each asset class’s fundamentals remain strong.

DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 1d

1/2 Over the last 12 months, gold has outperformed the S&P 500 by 35 percentage points, 1 ½ standard deviations better than its 20-year track record. Unlike prior periods of gold outperformance (2006 – 2012, 2020, 2022), stocks are in a bull market...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 2d

If you have not yet done so, check out our video about the power of compute/$ compounding. Investors understand that stock market returns compound, but computing power also does, and much more quickly.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WOd...

Why Nvidia is Superior to 90s Tech

YouTube video by Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research

www.youtube.com

DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 2d

DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe's latest video has an update on her Nasdaq 1995/2023 comparison chart that will amaze you. The NAS is tracking the late 1990s to a freakish degree. Check it out!

www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WOd...

Why Nvidia is Superior to 90s Tech

YouTube video by Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research

www.youtube.com

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 2d

Chinese Tech stocks (KWEB ETF) recently beat the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the prior year by 2 standard deviations. When US large cap Tech has been this oversold in the past, it went on to outperform by strong-double digits and with a 100% win rate over the next year.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 2d

2/2 ...We continue to prefer US large caps for long term investors but believe the current “everything rally” is not over just yet.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 2d

1/2 An in-depth, 20-year look at historical returns shows the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are far more resilient than US small caps or non-US stocks. This is not an anomaly, but rather a sustainable pattern, in our view...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 2d

The last 12 months have seen a classic global equity “everything rally”, w/ both US stocks (S&P, Nasdaq, Russell) & non-US (EAFE, EM) all doing better than their historical averages. But none is yet to a statistically unusual 1-year return, implying further near-term upside.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 4d

Equity investors understand the power of compounding in capital markets, but it is just as important a concept for understanding why Big Tech today is so different from Internet 1.0 companies. Watch why below!

www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WOd...

Why Nvidia is Superior to 90s Tech

YouTube video by Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research

www.youtube.com

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 7d

Our chart in our latest video shows how NVDA is capturing the early economics of AI far better than the numerous public internet plays in the 90s. Check it out!

youtu.be/36Co4ZYurUk?...

Why Nvidia is Superior to 90s Tech

YouTube video by Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research

youtu.be

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 7d

MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, GOOG & META will generate a total +$550 billion in Operating Cash Flow this year, more than enough to keep AI investments growing while still maintaining strong capital discipline.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 7d

There’s been 15 turns in Moore’s Law since 1995 (computing power is +32k times more powerful than 30 years ago). Now there’s Huang’s Law: gen AI may enjoy an even faster compounding rate of computing power going forward.

Watch why this matters for investors below! youtu.be/36Co4ZYurUk?...

Why Nvidia is Superior to 90s Tech

YouTube video by Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research

youtu.be

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 8d

Check out our latest video on why Nvidia is so superior to 90s tech stars in our latest video!

youtu.be/36Co4ZYurUk?...

Why Nvidia is Superior to 90s Tech

YouTube video by Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research

youtu.be

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 8d

DataTrek's Nick Colas: "Against these highly volatile comps, the third quarter of 2025 looks downright calm by comparison."
@barrons.com

www.barrons.com/articles/mar...

It May Not Feel Like It, but Markets Are Normal. That’s Good News.

In what has been a tumultuous and unpredictable year, the third quarter qualifies as a period of normalcy.

www.barrons.com

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 8d

DataTrek's Nick Colas: "S&P sector correlations currently reflect excessive investor confidence, but history shows we still need a catalyst to come along and reset them back to more rational levels." @marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com/story/this-s...

This S&P 500 sector gauge points to ‘excessive’ confidence and imminent pullback

Sectors in the U.S. stock market just traded in a way that suggests investors are excessively confident and a pullback may be near, according to DataTrek Research.

www.marketwatch.com

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 8d

Investors don't expect markets to be entirely predictable, but they want them to be understandable & exhibit only moderate volatility regardless of near-term direction. The last 90 days were the 1st stretch in a year w/ those attributes, a help to near term investor confidence.

DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 8d

2/2 ....Investors don’t expect markets to be predictable, but they do appreciate when they are understandable. We’re back to that point, a bullish sign for Q4.

DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 8d

1/2 The just-completed Q3 2025 was the most normal market environment in a year. Currency volatility abated, US/ROW/small cap relative returns scaled as one would expect, and Gen AI names were not the bulk of the S&P 500’s gains...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 8d

2/2 ...Since 2016, history shows when cyber stocks have been that oversold, they’ve gone on to beat the index by 4.8 points and with an 80% win rate over the next 100 days. We continue to believe that cybersecurity is an important emerging theme and secular growth story.