DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe
@datatrekresearch.bsky.social
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"To DataTrek Research co-founders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe, the fact that revenues increased by a multi-year record of 8.4 percent is more important to stock returns than the earnings growth." @inc.com www.inc.com/phil-rosen/s...
Wall Street Expects a Huge 2026 for the Magnificent 7
Big Tech earnings are seen ramping up in the next four quarters.
www.inc.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:24 PM
"To DataTrek Research co-founders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe, the fact that revenues increased by a multi-year record of 8.4 percent is more important to stock returns than the earnings growth." @inc.com www.inc.com/phil-rosen/s...
It has been a solid year for US fixed income investors. Some of the strongest performers have been 7–10-year Treasuries (IEF, +8.7 pct total return) and Investment Grade corporates (LQD, +8.2 pct).
November 25, 2025 at 10:54 PM
It has been a solid year for US fixed income investors. Some of the strongest performers have been 7–10-year Treasuries (IEF, +8.7 pct total return) and Investment Grade corporates (LQD, +8.2 pct).
ChatGPT launched on November 30th 2022 and, since then, only 2 Tech-heavy sectors have outperformed the S&P 500: Communications (thanks to Meta and Alphabet) and Tech itself (due largely to Nvidia). The “AI Age” of investing has been remarkably narrow.
November 25, 2025 at 8:09 PM
ChatGPT launched on November 30th 2022 and, since then, only 2 Tech-heavy sectors have outperformed the S&P 500: Communications (thanks to Meta and Alphabet) and Tech itself (due largely to Nvidia). The “AI Age” of investing has been remarkably narrow.
Japanese stocks have been getting more attention as a potential long-term turnaround story. Corporate Margins are at +20-yr highs and managements are increasingly focused on improving structural returns on capital. MSCI Japan is not currently overextended & worth a look.
November 25, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Japanese stocks have been getting more attention as a potential long-term turnaround story. Corporate Margins are at +20-yr highs and managements are increasingly focused on improving structural returns on capital. MSCI Japan is not currently overextended & worth a look.
Since ChatGPT launched on November 30th, 2022, Microsoft is the worst performing US Big Tech name.
November 24, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Since ChatGPT launched on November 30th, 2022, Microsoft is the worst performing US Big Tech name.
As much as the S&P 500 posted impressive earnings growth of +13.4% in Q3 2025, the fact that revenues increased by a multi-year record of +8.4% is more important when considering future index earnings power.
November 24, 2025 at 9:21 PM
As much as the S&P 500 posted impressive earnings growth of +13.4% in Q3 2025, the fact that revenues increased by a multi-year record of +8.4% is more important when considering future index earnings power.
Index-level revenue growth has been accelerating since its Q2 2023 lows of +0.9%, coming in at +8.4% in Q3. While not back to the late Pandemic Era growth of +11.0% in 2022, the most recent quarter is the best comp since Q3 2022 (+11.0%).
November 24, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Index-level revenue growth has been accelerating since its Q2 2023 lows of +0.9%, coming in at +8.4% in Q3. While not back to the late Pandemic Era growth of +11.0% in 2022, the most recent quarter is the best comp since Q3 2022 (+11.0%).
Corporate bond spreads have been drifting higher, expressing the same worry about US economic growth that we see in recent US stock market volatility.
November 24, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Corporate bond spreads have been drifting higher, expressing the same worry about US economic growth that we see in recent US stock market volatility.
1/2 The 8 US Big Tech names (38% of the S&P 500) are largely valued on future earnings growth (70% of current market value, 66% ex-Tesla), where the valuation of the “S&P 492” is almost equally anchored (72%) by its current earnings power...
November 24, 2025 at 6:06 PM
1/2 The 8 US Big Tech names (38% of the S&P 500) are largely valued on future earnings growth (70% of current market value, 66% ex-Tesla), where the valuation of the “S&P 492” is almost equally anchored (72%) by its current earnings power...
Quarterly S&P 500 revenue growth has been accelerating for over 2 years, with Q3 2025 showing an +8.4% comp. Almost every sector beat top line expectations.
November 24, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Quarterly S&P 500 revenue growth has been accelerating for over 2 years, with Q3 2025 showing an +8.4% comp. Almost every sector beat top line expectations.
Thanks to Friday’s comments by @newyorkfed.bsky.social president Williams, Futures now give 77% odds for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, up from 44% at the end of last week.
November 24, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Thanks to Friday’s comments by @newyorkfed.bsky.social president Williams, Futures now give 77% odds for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, up from 44% at the end of last week.
Last week’s markets action closely resembles a classic risk-off move. US stocks outperformed ROW. Treasuries rallied, as did the dollar. All this challenges the idea that the American exceptionalism trade is over and Treasuries/the dollar have lost their safe haven status.
November 24, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Last week’s markets action closely resembles a classic risk-off move. US stocks outperformed ROW. Treasuries rallied, as did the dollar. All this challenges the idea that the American exceptionalism trade is over and Treasuries/the dollar have lost their safe haven status.
The dollar gained against every major developed and emerging economy currency last week. The S&P 500 beat MSCI Europe, Japan, and EM (-2.0 versus -2.5, -3.3, and -3.4 pct respectively).
November 24, 2025 at 4:01 PM
The dollar gained against every major developed and emerging economy currency last week. The S&P 500 beat MSCI Europe, Japan, and EM (-2.0 versus -2.5, -3.3, and -3.4 pct respectively).
1/2 S&P 500 sector price return correlations to the index remain lower than their long run average and were extremely (+2 standard deviations) below the mean last month...
November 20, 2025 at 8:10 PM
1/2 S&P 500 sector price return correlations to the index remain lower than their long run average and were extremely (+2 standard deviations) below the mean last month...
1/2 #Bitcoin continues to exhibit generally low trailing 30-day price return correlations to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 & gold. These can occasionally rise to 0.6 – 0.7 for the 2 stock market indices, but even those are r-squares of just 36 – 49%...
November 20, 2025 at 5:58 PM
1/2 #Bitcoin continues to exhibit generally low trailing 30-day price return correlations to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 & gold. These can occasionally rise to 0.6 – 0.7 for the 2 stock market indices, but even those are r-squares of just 36 – 49%...
1/2 Historic seasonal trends show the odds of the S&P 500 topping out in Dec rather than Oct/Nov are 75% vs 25%. While that’s bullish, the S&P is lagging years when it peaks in Q4 (+12.1% YTD, historically +19 - 22%)...
November 20, 2025 at 5:20 PM
1/2 Historic seasonal trends show the odds of the S&P 500 topping out in Dec rather than Oct/Nov are 75% vs 25%. While that’s bullish, the S&P is lagging years when it peaks in Q4 (+12.1% YTD, historically +19 - 22%)...
Buying the S&P 500 when the VIX closes between 27.3 & 50.8 (the range from +1 to 4 standard deviations above the mean) has a good track record of delivering solid gains over the following month, 3 months, 6 months, and year. And win rates for these timeframes are all over 70%.
November 19, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Buying the S&P 500 when the VIX closes between 27.3 & 50.8 (the range from +1 to 4 standard deviations above the mean) has a good track record of delivering solid gains over the following month, 3 months, 6 months, and year. And win rates for these timeframes are all over 70%.
1/2 US equities are getting choppy, which means it is time to review our VIX Playbook. Wall Street’s famous “Fear Gauge” is a reliable signal of productive entry points whenever markets become exceptionally volatile...
November 19, 2025 at 6:01 PM
1/2 US equities are getting choppy, which means it is time to review our VIX Playbook. Wall Street’s famous “Fear Gauge” is a reliable signal of productive entry points whenever markets become exceptionally volatile...
1/2 US large cap Tech recently experienced a +2 standard deviation rally over the prior 100 days on both an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500. While it is now seeing some weakness, price history back to 2010 clearly shows the group can continue to work from here...
November 19, 2025 at 5:13 PM
1/2 US large cap Tech recently experienced a +2 standard deviation rally over the prior 100 days on both an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500. While it is now seeing some weakness, price history back to 2010 clearly shows the group can continue to work from here...
The Nasdaq Comp continues to eerily track its mid-1990s bull run, with the index now rolling over just like the comparable period in late 1997.
November 18, 2025 at 8:18 PM
The Nasdaq Comp continues to eerily track its mid-1990s bull run, with the index now rolling over just like the comparable period in late 1997.
Despite the next Fed meeting being just 23 days away, Futures continue to put coin-flip odds on a 25 basis point rate cut. They discount only 3-4 cuts over the next 13 months, a bullish setup for stocks.
November 18, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Despite the next Fed meeting being just 23 days away, Futures continue to put coin-flip odds on a 25 basis point rate cut. They discount only 3-4 cuts over the next 13 months, a bullish setup for stocks.
Q3 2025 financial reporting season for the S&P 500 was exceptionally good on both the top and bottom line, even with this year’s manifold uncertainties.
November 18, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Q3 2025 financial reporting season for the S&P 500 was exceptionally good on both the top and bottom line, even with this year’s manifold uncertainties.
Q3 2025 saw the S&P 500 hit record net profit margins, and not just because of Tech. This implies that structural returns on capital are also high, and that supports current lofty US large cap valuations.
November 18, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Q3 2025 saw the S&P 500 hit record net profit margins, and not just because of Tech. This implies that structural returns on capital are also high, and that supports current lofty US large cap valuations.
The S&P 500 went from narrowly beating rest of world (ROW) stocks in October (+2.3 vs +2.1%) to noticeably underperforming in the first 2 weeks of November (-1.6 vs +0.3%). Currency was not a driver in this shift and, for Q4 to date, the S&P is now lagging ROW (+0.7 vs +2.4%).
November 17, 2025 at 10:13 PM
The S&P 500 went from narrowly beating rest of world (ROW) stocks in October (+2.3 vs +2.1%) to noticeably underperforming in the first 2 weeks of November (-1.6 vs +0.3%). Currency was not a driver in this shift and, for Q4 to date, the S&P is now lagging ROW (+0.7 vs +2.4%).
While TSLA is flat on the year (+0.1 pct), the rest of Big Tech has added a total of 7.5 points to the S&P 500, or 51% of its YTD gain (through Friday).
November 17, 2025 at 8:31 PM
While TSLA is flat on the year (+0.1 pct), the rest of Big Tech has added a total of 7.5 points to the S&P 500, or 51% of its YTD gain (through Friday).