Dave Trotter
@davetrotter.bsky.social
Recovering political data analyst. My YouTube channel is @votingtrends. American-Slovak citizen.🇸🇰
Doing some late-night number crunching in Florida. Honestly, with the way that the special elections have been going, we could have the strongest Democratic midterm swing since the Watergate Babies in 1974.
December 17, 2025 at 4:17 AM
Doing some late-night number crunching in Florida. Honestly, with the way that the special elections have been going, we could have the strongest Democratic midterm swing since the Watergate Babies in 1974.
Another big win for Democrats in KY State Senate 37. Last year, the Democrat won 60.8% of the vote. Tonight, the Democrat won 72.4% in a three-way race.
Gary Clemons wins special election for Kentucky Senate seat
Gary Clemmons, a labor union leader, was one of three candidates vying for the seat vacated by former Sen. David Yates.
www.courier-journal.com
December 17, 2025 at 12:36 AM
Another big win for Democrats in KY State Senate 37. Last year, the Democrat won 60.8% of the vote. Tonight, the Democrat won 72.4% in a three-way race.
Reposted by Dave Trotter
Over the last seven days, we might be seeing Florida turn back into a purple state, with Dade County (I hate calling it Miami-Dade, as Jacksonville-Duval even makes more sense) shifting strongly Democratic, and Cuban-American voters ditching their ethnic loyalties to vote for Eileen HIggins.
Miami-Dade County might explain Florida might be purple again.
Two major shift over the last week might be signaling the end of the GOP's honeymoon in Miami-Dade County
votingtrend.substack.com
December 16, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Over the last seven days, we might be seeing Florida turn back into a purple state, with Dade County (I hate calling it Miami-Dade, as Jacksonville-Duval even makes more sense) shifting strongly Democratic, and Cuban-American voters ditching their ethnic loyalties to vote for Eileen HIggins.
Reposted by Dave Trotter
Are the wheels coming off MAGA in southern Florida?
YouTube video by Florida Squeeze
youtu.be
December 15, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Florida Republican State Senator Ileana Garcia BLASTED both Trump and Stephen Miller about immigration policy. Her district is highly Republican and it's highly likely that she loses her seat. She cannot switch to the Democrats because of the "party switching" law in Florida. She would be an NPA.
Florida Republican DESTROYS Trump and Stephen Miller! Is she switching parties?
YouTube video by Voting Trend
www.youtube.com
December 15, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Florida Republican State Senator Ileana Garcia BLASTED both Trump and Stephen Miller about immigration policy. Her district is highly Republican and it's highly likely that she loses her seat. She cannot switch to the Democrats because of the "party switching" law in Florida. She would be an NPA.
Just saw this commercial by Ronald Reagan back in 1976 talking about how America needs to "save Social Security" before it is too late. The Republicans been saying "Social Security will run out in 10 years" for the last 50 or more years. It gets kind of old.
1976 Ronald Reagan for President Primary TV ad - Social Security
YouTube video by kansaspolitics
www.youtube.com
December 14, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Just saw this commercial by Ronald Reagan back in 1976 talking about how America needs to "save Social Security" before it is too late. The Republicans been saying "Social Security will run out in 10 years" for the last 50 or more years. It gets kind of old.
I'm skeptical of the PPP poll that came out of South Carolina the other day. Usually, PPP provides crosstabs. In the mid-2010s, they provided TONS of crosstabs. But the poll has no crosstabs whatsoever. Or I can't find any right now. The poll was also released 2 1/2 weeks after completed. Odd.
POLL: Graham faces tight race against generic Democrat, challenger Andrews trails by 6
Long-time Republican U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham is only leading by two points in a matchup against a generic Democrat.
abcnews4.com
December 13, 2025 at 7:13 PM
I'm skeptical of the PPP poll that came out of South Carolina the other day. Usually, PPP provides crosstabs. In the mid-2010s, they provided TONS of crosstabs. But the poll has no crosstabs whatsoever. Or I can't find any right now. The poll was also released 2 1/2 weeks after completed. Odd.
If this is "news" to you, then you haven't been paying attention for the last decades. Big businesses and tax cuts? Never! 🤣
December 12, 2025 at 6:41 PM
If this is "news" to you, then you haven't been paying attention for the last decades. Big businesses and tax cuts? Never! 🤣
Yeah, this is why I hate the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" bullshit. So, Democrats, liberals and progressives, can we quit stroking MTG and Massie?
thehill.com
December 12, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Yeah, this is why I hate the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" bullshit. So, Democrats, liberals and progressives, can we quit stroking MTG and Massie?
To me, this is one of the biggest blows to the MAGA world. College football commentator Paul Finebaum decided not to run for US Senate to replace Tommy Gooberville in Alabama. In his CBS interview, he stated that the GOP told him to be divisive and go against "woke Disney". He said no.
Extended interview: Paul Finebaum talks would-be Senate bid, Notre Dame missing playoffs and more
YouTube video by CBS News
www.youtube.com
December 12, 2025 at 2:01 PM
To me, this is one of the biggest blows to the MAGA world. College football commentator Paul Finebaum decided not to run for US Senate to replace Tommy Gooberville in Alabama. In his CBS interview, he stated that the GOP told him to be divisive and go against "woke Disney". He said no.
So, now that we have enough data points in Florida, it seems like the Republicans have problems. In each of the special elections that we've had, the Republican vote has nearly been equal to the number of registered Republicans voting. This means a massive NPA, or even GOP, swing to the Democrats.
December 11, 2025 at 3:19 PM
So, now that we have enough data points in Florida, it seems like the Republicans have problems. In each of the special elections that we've had, the Republican vote has nearly been equal to the number of registered Republicans voting. This means a massive NPA, or even GOP, swing to the Democrats.
Wow, @nytimes.com, Manny Diaz literally became the chairman of the Florida Democratic Party after he was mayor, and was only considered an "independent" as mayor. So your "30 years" number is off by about 14 years.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/u...
Miami Hasn’t Had a Democratic Mayor in Almost 30 Years. Is That About to Change?
www.nytimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Wow, @nytimes.com, Manny Diaz literally became the chairman of the Florida Democratic Party after he was mayor, and was only considered an "independent" as mayor. So your "30 years" number is off by about 14 years.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/u...
The electorate in Miami tonight is significantly more Republican than it was in the general or the last general election in 2021. Now Dems 41%, Rep 34% and NPA 23%
If Higgins wins, then she was able to get a TON of Republicans or NPAs to come over to her. If Gonzalez wins...status quo.
If Higgins wins, then she was able to get a TON of Republicans or NPAs to come over to her. If Gonzalez wins...status quo.
December 9, 2025 at 10:05 PM
The electorate in Miami tonight is significantly more Republican than it was in the general or the last general election in 2021. Now Dems 41%, Rep 34% and NPA 23%
If Higgins wins, then she was able to get a TON of Republicans or NPAs to come over to her. If Gonzalez wins...status quo.
If Higgins wins, then she was able to get a TON of Republicans or NPAs to come over to her. If Gonzalez wins...status quo.
If Democrats were able to pull off the same swing in every North Carolina congressional district that Aftyn Behn did on Tuesday, Republicans would only have one congressional district in the state.
December 6, 2025 at 9:20 PM
If Democrats were able to pull off the same swing in every North Carolina congressional district that Aftyn Behn did on Tuesday, Republicans would only have one congressional district in the state.
There were only 810 more votes cast in the TN-7th race than there were in the 2022 midterm election. Essentially, the race this past Tuesday had midterm turnout.
December 6, 2025 at 8:04 PM
There were only 810 more votes cast in the TN-7th race than there were in the 2022 midterm election. Essentially, the race this past Tuesday had midterm turnout.
If Sen. Bernie Moreno says that I have to "pick" between being an American or Slovak citizen, well that one is easy. Bye-bye "land of the free".
www.wfmj.com/story/532901...
www.wfmj.com/story/532901...
Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno introduces 'Exclusive Citizenship Act'
Current law allows certain United States citizens to maintain foreign citizenship, which could create conflicts of interest. Senator Moreno’s Exclusive Citizenship Act of 2025 would require them to fo
www.wfmj.com
December 2, 2025 at 1:21 AM
If Sen. Bernie Moreno says that I have to "pick" between being an American or Slovak citizen, well that one is easy. Bye-bye "land of the free".
www.wfmj.com/story/532901...
www.wfmj.com/story/532901...
Looking at the TN-7th primary, just over half of Republican primary voters voted on Election day (51.7%). As for Democrats, the number was only a little less at 44.6% of Election Day voters. Republicans are not poised to get a huge Election Day bump. A bump, yes, but not huge.
December 1, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Looking at the TN-7th primary, just over half of Republican primary voters voted on Election day (51.7%). As for Democrats, the number was only a little less at 44.6% of Election Day voters. Republicans are not poised to get a huge Election Day bump. A bump, yes, but not huge.
Monday, Speaker Mike Johnson, Senators Marsha Blackburn & Bill Hagerty, Congressmen Tim Burchett, Andy Ogles, and John Rose, as well as a number of other Republicans are doing a GOTV rally.
This doesn't sound like the actions of a candidate who will "easily win"
This doesn't sound like the actions of a candidate who will "easily win"
November 30, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Monday, Speaker Mike Johnson, Senators Marsha Blackburn & Bill Hagerty, Congressmen Tim Burchett, Andy Ogles, and John Rose, as well as a number of other Republicans are doing a GOTV rally.
This doesn't sound like the actions of a candidate who will "easily win"
This doesn't sound like the actions of a candidate who will "easily win"
If Mamdani gets over 50% tonight, especially if he gets 55%+, that should be the green light for AOC to run for the Senate in 2028.
November 4, 2025 at 10:58 PM
If Mamdani gets over 50% tonight, especially if he gets 55%+, that should be the green light for AOC to run for the Senate in 2028.
To put what we are seeing in Virginia in perspective, this could be the biggest Democratic victory in the governor's race since 1961, when Albertis Harrison won 63.9% of the vote. If not, then 1985 when Gerald Baliles won 55.2%.
November 4, 2025 at 5:05 PM
To put what we are seeing in Virginia in perspective, this could be the biggest Democratic victory in the governor's race since 1961, when Albertis Harrison won 63.9% of the vote. If not, then 1985 when Gerald Baliles won 55.2%.
As of the updates that I have in VA (which doesn't include all the states, mind you), Democrats, at this point, should get between 53.2% and 59.8% of the vote. I don't have data from Fairfax County yet.
November 4, 2025 at 4:59 PM
As of the updates that I have in VA (which doesn't include all the states, mind you), Democrats, at this point, should get between 53.2% and 59.8% of the vote. I don't have data from Fairfax County yet.
The stats on @statenavigate.org how that 26,904 in Loudon County have already voted today. The number in Chesterfield County is 23,714.
I don't like making predictions, or saying things like "blowout"...but...
I don't like making predictions, or saying things like "blowout"...but...
November 4, 2025 at 3:50 PM
The stats on @statenavigate.org how that 26,904 in Loudon County have already voted today. The number in Chesterfield County is 23,714.
I don't like making predictions, or saying things like "blowout"...but...
I don't like making predictions, or saying things like "blowout"...but...
Reposted by Dave Trotter
Chaz and his State Navigate team will be doing great work on Election Day and Night
He will be tracking turnout in Virginia
I’ll also post periodically about turnout
Personally won’t go too overboard with the analysis
We will find out results starting at 7
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
He will be tracking turnout in Virginia
I’ll also post periodically about turnout
Personally won’t go too overboard with the analysis
We will find out results starting at 7
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
State Navigate VA Election Day Vote Tracker (pre-poll close)
docs.google.com
November 4, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Chaz and his State Navigate team will be doing great work on Election Day and Night
He will be tracking turnout in Virginia
I’ll also post periodically about turnout
Personally won’t go too overboard with the analysis
We will find out results starting at 7
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
He will be tracking turnout in Virginia
I’ll also post periodically about turnout
Personally won’t go too overboard with the analysis
We will find out results starting at 7
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...