Sam Shirazi
@samshirazi.bsky.social
Host of Federal Fallout Podcast. Follow for Virginia Elections and Politics 🗳️ (Views expressed are mine personally) contact: [email protected]
Spotsylvania got attention after Spanberger won it in the Govenor’s race
The first Black superintendent who is also an immigrant showed his credentials after questions from a School Board member
Shows some of tensions in increasingly purple area
www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/n...
The first Black superintendent who is also an immigrant showed his credentials after questions from a School Board member
Shows some of tensions in increasingly purple area
www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/n...
November 26, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Spotsylvania got attention after Spanberger won it in the Govenor’s race
The first Black superintendent who is also an immigrant showed his credentials after questions from a School Board member
Shows some of tensions in increasingly purple area
www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/n...
The first Black superintendent who is also an immigrant showed his credentials after questions from a School Board member
Shows some of tensions in increasingly purple area
www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/n...
Special elections are called special for a reason
Often closer than a general election would be
But the fact it is this close is wild
Giving 2017 GA-6 vibes with Jon Ossoff narrowly losing
Matt Van Epps 48% (R)
Aftyn Behn 46% (D)
emersoncollegepolling.com/tennessee-7t...
Often closer than a general election would be
But the fact it is this close is wild
Giving 2017 GA-6 vibes with Jon Ossoff narrowly losing
Matt Van Epps 48% (R)
Aftyn Behn 46% (D)
emersoncollegepolling.com/tennessee-7t...
Tennessee 7th District 2025 Special Election Poll: Republican Van Epps and Democrat Behn Locked In Tight Race - Emerson Polling
Voters Split on Trump’s Job Performance as Economic Issues Top Voters’ Concerns A new Emerson…Full Release & Results
emersoncollegepolling.com
November 26, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Special elections are called special for a reason
Often closer than a general election would be
But the fact it is this close is wild
Giving 2017 GA-6 vibes with Jon Ossoff narrowly losing
Matt Van Epps 48% (R)
Aftyn Behn 46% (D)
emersoncollegepolling.com/tennessee-7t...
Often closer than a general election would be
But the fact it is this close is wild
Giving 2017 GA-6 vibes with Jon Ossoff narrowly losing
Matt Van Epps 48% (R)
Aftyn Behn 46% (D)
emersoncollegepolling.com/tennessee-7t...
Missed this earlier
According to Pew, Trump approval among Latinos
70% Disapprove
27% Approve
Would explain New Jersey and Virginia results earlier this month
According to Pew, Trump approval among Latinos
70% Disapprove
27% Approve
Would explain New Jersey and Virginia results earlier this month
Pew Research poll - Latino Voters
Trump approval
Approve 27%
Disapprove 70%
www.pewresearch.org/race-and-eth...
Trump approval
Approve 27%
Disapprove 70%
www.pewresearch.org/race-and-eth...
November 25, 2025 at 2:18 AM
Missed this earlier
According to Pew, Trump approval among Latinos
70% Disapprove
27% Approve
Would explain New Jersey and Virginia results earlier this month
According to Pew, Trump approval among Latinos
70% Disapprove
27% Approve
Would explain New Jersey and Virginia results earlier this month
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Pew Research poll - Latino Voters
Trump approval
Approve 27%
Disapprove 70%
www.pewresearch.org/race-and-eth...
Trump approval
Approve 27%
Disapprove 70%
www.pewresearch.org/race-and-eth...
November 24, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Pew Research poll - Latino Voters
Trump approval
Approve 27%
Disapprove 70%
www.pewresearch.org/race-and-eth...
Trump approval
Approve 27%
Disapprove 70%
www.pewresearch.org/race-and-eth...
Nancy Pelosi was able to stay House Democratic leader for 20 years
Every Republican leader during that time had trouble controlling his caucus
Hard to imagine Johnson staying on if GOP loses majority
Would mean 3 different GOP leaders in little over 3 years
Every Republican leader during that time had trouble controlling his caucus
Hard to imagine Johnson staying on if GOP loses majority
Would mean 3 different GOP leaders in little over 3 years
Under Mike Johnson, a rarely used House tool has gone mainstream
Under Mike Johnson, a rarely used House tool has gone mainstream
Five discharge petitions have been completed since the Louisiana Republican became speaker — more than in the prior 30 years combined.
dlvr.it
November 25, 2025 at 12:43 AM
Nancy Pelosi was able to stay House Democratic leader for 20 years
Every Republican leader during that time had trouble controlling his caucus
Hard to imagine Johnson staying on if GOP loses majority
Would mean 3 different GOP leaders in little over 3 years
Every Republican leader during that time had trouble controlling his caucus
Hard to imagine Johnson staying on if GOP loses majority
Would mean 3 different GOP leaders in little over 3 years
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
In legislative races this year, both special and regular, Dems have flipped 24 seats from the GOP across the country. Republicans, well... docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 24, 2025 at 11:34 PM
In legislative races this year, both special and regular, Dems have flipped 24 seats from the GOP across the country. Republicans, well... docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Big endorsement for Del. Mike Jones in upcoming special election to replace Hashmi in State Senate
Date for special and firehouse primary is TBD
Jones will face off against Del. Debra Gardner for the Dem nomination
Winner of that almost certain next State Senator in blue seat
Date for special and firehouse primary is TBD
Jones will face off against Del. Debra Gardner for the Dem nomination
Winner of that almost certain next State Senator in blue seat
November 24, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Big endorsement for Del. Mike Jones in upcoming special election to replace Hashmi in State Senate
Date for special and firehouse primary is TBD
Jones will face off against Del. Debra Gardner for the Dem nomination
Winner of that almost certain next State Senator in blue seat
Date for special and firehouse primary is TBD
Jones will face off against Del. Debra Gardner for the Dem nomination
Winner of that almost certain next State Senator in blue seat
Big endorsement for Del. Mike Jones in upcoming special election to replace Hashmi in State Senate
Date for special and firehouse primary is TBD
Jones will face off against Del. Debra Gardner for the Dem nomination
Winner of that almost certain next State Senator in blue seat
Date for special and firehouse primary is TBD
Jones will face off against Del. Debra Gardner for the Dem nomination
Winner of that almost certain next State Senator in blue seat
November 24, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Big endorsement for Del. Mike Jones in upcoming special election to replace Hashmi in State Senate
Date for special and firehouse primary is TBD
Jones will face off against Del. Debra Gardner for the Dem nomination
Winner of that almost certain next State Senator in blue seat
Date for special and firehouse primary is TBD
Jones will face off against Del. Debra Gardner for the Dem nomination
Winner of that almost certain next State Senator in blue seat
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Virginia Republicans are facing a deep identity crisis following Democrats’ return to power. “There needs to be a fundamental rewriting of the Republican Party in Virginia. If they don’t get their act together, it’s over," Loudoun County GOP chair Scott Pio said. virginiamercury.com/2025/11/24/w...
‘We’re toast’: Virginia GOP erupts in finger-pointing after sweeping Democratic wins • Virginia Mercury
Rick Buchanan didn’t expect to walk out before the first session even ended.The chair of the 5th Congressional District GOP Committee had arrived at the Donald W. Huffman Advance — the Republican…
virginiamercury.com
November 24, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Virginia Republicans are facing a deep identity crisis following Democrats’ return to power. “There needs to be a fundamental rewriting of the Republican Party in Virginia. If they don’t get their act together, it’s over," Loudoun County GOP chair Scott Pio said. virginiamercury.com/2025/11/24/w...
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
“If the takeaway of either party from the 2024 and 2025 elections is that it needs to abandon gun violence prevention and crime prevention, then those candidates should be prepared to lose many, many future elections." - Brady PAC Executive Director bluevirginia.us/2025/11/brad...
Brady PAC Executive Director Says Incoming VA Dem Trifecta and the Fact That “Governor-elect Spanberger has been a longtime champion on this issue” Means “The sky is the limit going into this next ses...
Interesting interview by Sam Shirazi of Ashley Lantz from the Brady PAC, about the incoming Virginia Democratic "trifecta" and what that might mean for legislation on gun violence prevention. A few hi...
bluevirginia.us
November 24, 2025 at 2:31 PM
“If the takeaway of either party from the 2024 and 2025 elections is that it needs to abandon gun violence prevention and crime prevention, then those candidates should be prepared to lose many, many future elections." - Brady PAC Executive Director bluevirginia.us/2025/11/brad...
I’m not certain Glen Sturevant is going to run for re-election in 2027
He represents a State Senate seat in Richmond suburbs Spanberger won by 9%
Not really sure what his end game is
But his posting is not what would you expect given his district
He represents a State Senate seat in Richmond suburbs Spanberger won by 9%
Not really sure what his end game is
But his posting is not what would you expect given his district
November 24, 2025 at 2:16 PM
I’m not certain Glen Sturevant is going to run for re-election in 2027
He represents a State Senate seat in Richmond suburbs Spanberger won by 9%
Not really sure what his end game is
But his posting is not what would you expect given his district
He represents a State Senate seat in Richmond suburbs Spanberger won by 9%
Not really sure what his end game is
But his posting is not what would you expect given his district
New Federal Fallout interview with Ashley Lanz from @bradypac.bsky.social
Turning to what Dems might do with their incoming trifecta in January
What might be on the agenda for gun safety prevention
And how will the gun issue impact the midterms
open.spotify.com/episode/3nu3...
Turning to what Dems might do with their incoming trifecta in January
What might be on the agenda for gun safety prevention
And how will the gun issue impact the midterms
open.spotify.com/episode/3nu3...
Bonus Interview: Ashley Lanz from Brady PAC on Possible Gun Violence Prevention Legislation in Virginia
open.spotify.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:50 PM
New Federal Fallout interview with Ashley Lanz from @bradypac.bsky.social
Turning to what Dems might do with their incoming trifecta in January
What might be on the agenda for gun safety prevention
And how will the gun issue impact the midterms
open.spotify.com/episode/3nu3...
Turning to what Dems might do with their incoming trifecta in January
What might be on the agenda for gun safety prevention
And how will the gun issue impact the midterms
open.spotify.com/episode/3nu3...
New CBS poll has Trump as 60% disapprove vs. 40% approve
His handing of the economy and inflation has really taken a hit
Much of the election results this month could be explained by that alone
Sometimes politics isn’t that complicated
www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ve...
His handing of the economy and inflation has really taken a hit
Much of the election results this month could be explained by that alone
Sometimes politics isn’t that complicated
www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ve...
November 23, 2025 at 2:14 PM
New CBS poll has Trump as 60% disapprove vs. 40% approve
His handing of the economy and inflation has really taken a hit
Much of the election results this month could be explained by that alone
Sometimes politics isn’t that complicated
www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ve...
His handing of the economy and inflation has really taken a hit
Much of the election results this month could be explained by that alone
Sometimes politics isn’t that complicated
www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ve...
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Down in Virginia's #HD49, we saw a very close race in a Trump+8 district. That's where Republican Danville City Councilman Madison Whittle beat his fellow City Councilman Gary Miller by six points.
Miller ran even with Spanberger despite no outside help from the state Dems!
Miller ran even with Spanberger despite no outside help from the state Dems!
November 21, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Down in Virginia's #HD49, we saw a very close race in a Trump+8 district. That's where Republican Danville City Councilman Madison Whittle beat his fellow City Councilman Gary Miller by six points.
Miller ran even with Spanberger despite no outside help from the state Dems!
Miller ran even with Spanberger despite no outside help from the state Dems!
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
The Virginia Democrats flipped the last Republican-held seat in Loudoun County blue this year when they won #HD30.
John McAuliff was the one to do so, winning this Trump+1 district by two points. This makes him the most successful Virginian named McAuliff(e) this decade
John McAuliff was the one to do so, winning this Trump+1 district by two points. This makes him the most successful Virginian named McAuliff(e) this decade
November 22, 2025 at 7:40 PM
The Virginia Democrats flipped the last Republican-held seat in Loudoun County blue this year when they won #HD30.
John McAuliff was the one to do so, winning this Trump+1 district by two points. This makes him the most successful Virginian named McAuliff(e) this decade
John McAuliff was the one to do so, winning this Trump+1 district by two points. This makes him the most successful Virginian named McAuliff(e) this decade
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger (D) criticized the Trump administration and outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) for interfering in public college and university policies and leadership, calling it a break from long-standing bipartisan practice.
Spanberger blasts Youngkin for politicizing Va. college boards, vows changes
In an interview with The Post, Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger (D) suggested changes to how the state should oversee its colleges and universities.
wapo.st
November 22, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger (D) criticized the Trump administration and outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) for interfering in public college and university policies and leadership, calling it a break from long-standing bipartisan practice.
Glad to have @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social back on Federal Fallout pod
He goes over what his team at @statenavigate.org got right in polling and forecasting this year
Model for the current environment instead of recreating past elections
Fun for election nerds!
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
He goes over what his team at @statenavigate.org got right in polling and forecasting this year
Model for the current environment instead of recreating past elections
Fun for election nerds!
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Episode 39: Chaz Nuttycombe on What State Navigate Got Right
Podcast Episode · Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections · 11/22/2025 · 46m
podcasts.apple.com
November 22, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Glad to have @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social back on Federal Fallout pod
He goes over what his team at @statenavigate.org got right in polling and forecasting this year
Model for the current environment instead of recreating past elections
Fun for election nerds!
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
He goes over what his team at @statenavigate.org got right in polling and forecasting this year
Model for the current environment instead of recreating past elections
Fun for election nerds!
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I think we’re gonna look back on November 2025 as the month when things started to shift.
Think November has been a bit of a vibe shift
November 22, 2025 at 1:56 AM
Yeah, I think we’re gonna look back on November 2025 as the month when things started to shift.
Imagine telling someone a year ago
Marjorie Taylor Greene would resign out of principle before any other Republican
Marjorie Taylor Greene would resign out of principle before any other Republican
November 22, 2025 at 1:27 AM
Imagine telling someone a year ago
Marjorie Taylor Greene would resign out of principle before any other Republican
Marjorie Taylor Greene would resign out of principle before any other Republican
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Virginia's #HD86 looked like it was going to be a competitive district, but then Republican incumbent A.C. Cordoza was revealed to be a predator towards underaged girls.
Cordoza never really was able to claw back from that and ended up losing this Harris+2 district by eight.
Cordoza never really was able to claw back from that and ended up losing this Harris+2 district by eight.
November 20, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Virginia's #HD86 looked like it was going to be a competitive district, but then Republican incumbent A.C. Cordoza was revealed to be a predator towards underaged girls.
Cordoza never really was able to claw back from that and ended up losing this Harris+2 district by eight.
Cordoza never really was able to claw back from that and ended up losing this Harris+2 district by eight.
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
One reason to be skeptical of Emerson: Their polling shows 18 percent undecided. They don't push their respondents.
Caveat it is smaller sample size
But among Hispanics in Nevada
Trump Approval
57% Disapprove
24.5% Approve
Don’t think results in New Jersey and Virginia are localized there
emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-...
But among Hispanics in Nevada
Trump Approval
57% Disapprove
24.5% Approve
Don’t think results in New Jersey and Virginia are localized there
emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-...
November 21, 2025 at 7:08 PM
One reason to be skeptical of Emerson: Their polling shows 18 percent undecided. They don't push their respondents.
Caveat it is smaller sample size
But among Hispanics in Nevada
Trump Approval
57% Disapprove
24.5% Approve
Don’t think results in New Jersey and Virginia are localized there
emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-...
But among Hispanics in Nevada
Trump Approval
57% Disapprove
24.5% Approve
Don’t think results in New Jersey and Virginia are localized there
emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-...
November 21, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Caveat it is smaller sample size
But among Hispanics in Nevada
Trump Approval
57% Disapprove
24.5% Approve
Don’t think results in New Jersey and Virginia are localized there
emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-...
But among Hispanics in Nevada
Trump Approval
57% Disapprove
24.5% Approve
Don’t think results in New Jersey and Virginia are localized there
emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-...
VA-5 or VA-6 could be a Roanoke to Charlottesville district if redistricting happens
Beth Macy is running in VA-6
She was a reporter at the Roanoke Times and author of Dopesick
Even in blue wave, Earle-Sears won VA-5 and VA-6 comfortably
But if lines change…
cardinalnews.org/2025/11/20/m...
Beth Macy is running in VA-6
She was a reporter at the Roanoke Times and author of Dopesick
Even in blue wave, Earle-Sears won VA-5 and VA-6 comfortably
But if lines change…
cardinalnews.org/2025/11/20/m...
Macy raises $350,000 for congressional bid in 24 hours
For comparison, that’s almost as much as Rep. Ben Cline has on hand. It’s also almost twice as much as Shannon Taylor raised when she entered the 1st District race, which is considered …
cardinalnews.org
November 20, 2025 at 9:41 PM
VA-5 or VA-6 could be a Roanoke to Charlottesville district if redistricting happens
Beth Macy is running in VA-6
She was a reporter at the Roanoke Times and author of Dopesick
Even in blue wave, Earle-Sears won VA-5 and VA-6 comfortably
But if lines change…
cardinalnews.org/2025/11/20/m...
Beth Macy is running in VA-6
She was a reporter at the Roanoke Times and author of Dopesick
Even in blue wave, Earle-Sears won VA-5 and VA-6 comfortably
But if lines change…
cardinalnews.org/2025/11/20/m...
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
A little behind on my podcasts but I really enjoyed this @samshirazi.bsky.social post-mortem on the Virginia elections in which he goes through the results demographic by demographic.
Particularly intrigued by how the provisional ballots meted out compared to 2024.
open.substack.com/pub/samshira...
Particularly intrigued by how the provisional ballots meted out compared to 2024.
open.substack.com/pub/samshira...
Episode 38: Digging Into Virginia Election Data
Hi everyone.
open.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 8:51 PM
A little behind on my podcasts but I really enjoyed this @samshirazi.bsky.social post-mortem on the Virginia elections in which he goes through the results demographic by demographic.
Particularly intrigued by how the provisional ballots meted out compared to 2024.
open.substack.com/pub/samshira...
Particularly intrigued by how the provisional ballots meted out compared to 2024.
open.substack.com/pub/samshira...
Good in the weeds discussion about Virginia redistricting with a member of the House of Delegates
Important point that voters will get to decide if it is necessary in a referendum like in California
None of red states that have redistricted gave voters that ultimate choice
Important point that voters will get to decide if it is necessary in a referendum like in California
None of red states that have redistricted gave voters that ultimate choice
Given everything that's going on with redistricting, Virginia Delegate @marcussimon.com agreed to come on the Pod and discuss Virginia Redistricting. And what voters can expect next year when they get an opportunity to weigh in.
youtu.be/FldSTMLzDPw?...
youtu.be/FldSTMLzDPw?...
Delegate Marcus Simon talks Virginia Redistricting in response to Trump.
YouTube video by Abrenio Choe
youtu.be
November 20, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Good in the weeds discussion about Virginia redistricting with a member of the House of Delegates
Important point that voters will get to decide if it is necessary in a referendum like in California
None of red states that have redistricted gave voters that ultimate choice
Important point that voters will get to decide if it is necessary in a referendum like in California
None of red states that have redistricted gave voters that ultimate choice