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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 25m

I mean Twitter, sorry for not being clear

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Reposted by Sam Shirazi

Richard Skinner @richardmskinner.bsky.social · 32m

Earle-Sears anti-trans ads had a lot of deep cuts that most viewers surely didn't get if they're not Too Online.

Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 46m

Virginia elections also test of “X is not real life” in Trump 2.0 era

Trans stuff ended up being very online thing that didn’t break through

Texts story bigger deal and open question how much it influences votes

But this place has also moved to the right since Trump 1.0

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 46m

Virginia elections also test of “X is not real life” in Trump 2.0 era

Trans stuff ended up being very online thing that didn’t break through

Texts story bigger deal and open question how much it influences votes

But this place has also moved to the right since Trump 1.0

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Reposted by Sam Shirazi

Markus Schmidt @mschmidtrva.bsky.social · 2h

🧨 GOP gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears failed to disclose a $12,000 “gift” and multiple donor-funded trips on her ethics forms.

The omissions are part of a years-long pattern now raising questions about her transparency and trust in government

virginiamercury.com/2025/10/08/f...

Financial disclosure gaps, questionable gifts cloud Earle-Sears’ bid for governor • Virginia Mercury

Virginia Republican gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears built her political brand on transparency and accountability. But a closer look at her public filings reveals a pattern of omissions and i...

virginiamercury.com

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 13h

It’s very possible Federal layoffs won’t happen given political blow back

But need to be prepared for possibility shutdown could go on a long time

Last shutdown during Trump 1.0 was 35 days

Same amount of time now would be Nov 5

Election Day is Nov 4…

www.cnn.com/2025/10/07/p...

White House draws out mass federal firings timeline as GOP grows squeamish in funding fight | CNN Politics

The Trump administration’s strategy to swiftly roll out mass layoffs of federal workers during the government shutdown has shifted in recent days, administration officials familiar with the talks told...

www.cnn.com

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 14h

Tricky thing about polling down ballot is lower name ID

Much of lag w top of ticket can be explained by that

Looking at races in isolation misses straight ticket voting

Explains polling misses in 2024 Senate like Pennsylvania

The texts story will make things extra tricky

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 14h

Since August there were 7 non-partisan polls with Virginia AG

Average was Jones +5.1%

There were 3 GOP internal or aligned polls with AG numbers

Average was Jones +1.6%

Could see GOP internal released with Miyares up

Miyares up in non-partisan poll would show bigger movement

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Reposted by Sam Shirazi

Langdon Grant @langdongrant.bsky.social · 18h

Seems like the Jay Jones story is already starting to fade. In the Richmond area, it's been knocked off the front pages by the recovery of a local hardware store's lost cat.

(To be fair, it's a really sweet feel-good story.)

richmond.com/news/local/a...

Francine the Lowe's cat has been found

After weeks of frantic searching, Francine, the beloved Richmond cat who calls a local Lowe’s home, has been found.

richmond.com

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 19h

*is not

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 19h

At same time, Republicans got millions in free media in AG race in recent days

Helps to make up some of Dem money edge

But same level of engagement on the story in not going to be maintained

Plus ads reach least politically engaged voters not watching the news

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 19h

Republicans currently have about $2 million edge in ad reservations for Virginia Attorney General

But Dems have overwhelmingly advantage for every other office

Combined Dems have over $8 million more in reservations

Hard to know how much AG specific messages can break through

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 20h

I got there eventually

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 20h

🫡

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 20h

It is sad that I’m constantly thinking about what House of Delegates district I’m in though

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 20h

Decided to do some on the ground research from battleground HD-30 in Loudoun County

Actually was touching some grass at Temple Hall Farm

Would recommend it on this beautiful fall day in Virginia

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 21h

As soon as Virginia GOP have a chance to turn things around

Trump throws Virginia Dems a lifeline

That has been fundamental dynamic this year

It’s hard for election to be about anything other than Trump

Why the race has been relatively stable despite everything

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 21h

No idea if this will happen or not

But tens of thousands of workers in Virginia would miss paychecks

Along w millions lost in state income tax revenue

Even possibility might cause some Federal workers to spend less

There is a reason podcast called Federal Fallout

www.axios.com/2025/10/07/t...

Scoop: White House memo says furloughed federal workers aren't entitled to backpay

A move to deny backpay to up to 750,000 furloughed workers would dramatically escalate Trump's pressure on Democrats to end the shutdown.

www.axios.com

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Reposted by Sam Shirazi

John Cluverius @johncluverius.bsky.social · 1d

i want to emphasize that any pollster can be wrong, but Wason is one of the few left in the state working to hit high standards and be transparent af

Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 1d

I know everyone has moved on

But according to new CNU Virginia poll

Spanberger is up +13% on handling trans issue

It is top of mind for only 3% of voters

After GOP spent 2 months and millions pushing message

Perhaps why they have shifted focus in recent days…

Blue Virginia @bluevirginia.bsky.social · 1d

Kinda surprising in the new Wason Center poll: Spanberger leads Earle-Sears on who "would do a better job handling....transgender policy” - by 13 points! But only 3% say “transgender policy” is "top of mind" for them, so simply not a big issue. bluevirginia.us/2025/10/new-...

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 1d

Seems like it might happen

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 1d

Yup

Reposted by Sam Shirazi

Jim Lokay @jimlokay.com · 1d

Government shutdown 2025: Latest updates as Senate votes Monday fox5dc.com/news/governm...

Government shutdown 2025: Latest updates as Senate votes Monday

The government shutdown has continued into its sixth day, with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle pointing fingers.

fox5dc.com

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 1d

Virginia elections have gone from early vote hot takes to ticket splitting hot takes

Not sure which is worse

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 1d

Most Virginia Dems have been silent after initial batch of statements

But notable backing for Jay Jones from Senator Tim Kaine

Kaine served as Virginia Governor and Lt. Governor

So understands role of statewide office

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Reposted by Sam Shirazi

Richard Skinner @richardmskinner.bsky.social · 1d

Earle-Sears seems to have absolutely no idea how to appeal to the median voter.

Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 1d

I still don’t understand why they thought this would be good to use in an attack ad in Virginia

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 1d

I still don’t understand why they thought this would be good to use in an attack ad in Virginia

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