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Reposted by Richard Skinner

Barry Burden @bcburden.bsky.social · 22h

The 2024 @electionstudies.bsky.social has the share of "pure independents" in the US at its lowest level since 1952 (7%)

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Richard Skinner @richardmskinner.bsky.social · 2h

Suspect you'll see more Dems using Trump in this context.

Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 3h

Meanwhile first attempt by Virginia Dems to go on offense after texts story

Speaker of Virginia House of Delegates Don Scott posts video compilation of President Trump and Governor Youngkin

He was quick to denounce Jones’ texts

But not shy about going after Virginia GOP

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Adam Sheingate @adamsheingate.bsky.social · 3h

Re-upping this post from February showing location of fed employees by House district. The pain of a shutdown reaches far and wide.

Adam Sheingate @adamsheingate.bsky.social · Feb 23

Lots of GOP House members have large numbers of federal employees in their districts. Yes, DC metro is hardest hit by DOGE, but the pain from cuts will be felt across the country. crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...

map of government employment by congressional district by party, percent employed by federal government, and number of federal employees

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Richard Skinner @richardmskinner.bsky.social · 3h

Not great when we have to think about things like that. Just like during days pre 1/6, when we sought comfort (correctly) in that the military was loyal to democracy.

ryan cooper @ryanlcooper.com · 4h

if blue state governors and mayors aren't already thinking about the reliability of various police forces nominally under their control, they should start immediately

southpaw @nycsouthpaw.bsky.social · 4h

The situation in America is not great. www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...

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Governor JB Pritzker @govpritzker.illinois.gov · 4h

I will not back down.

Trump is now calling for the arrest of elected representatives checking his power.

What else is left on the path to full-blown authoritarianism?

Donald Trump Truth Social Post: Chicago Mayor should be in jail for failing to protect Ice Officers! Governor Pritzker also.

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Markus Schmidt @mschmidtrva.bsky.social · 7h

🧨 GOP gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears failed to disclose a $12,000 “gift” and multiple donor-funded trips on her ethics forms.

The omissions are part of a years-long pattern now raising questions about her transparency and trust in government

virginiamercury.com/2025/10/08/f...

Financial disclosure gaps, questionable gifts cloud Earle-Sears’ bid for governor • Virginia Mercury

Virginia Republican gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears built her political brand on transparency and accountability. But a closer look at her public filings reveals a pattern of omissions and i...

virginiamercury.com

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Richard Skinner @richardmskinner.bsky.social · 4h

Earle-Sears anti-trans ads had a lot of deep cuts that most viewers surely didn't get if they're not Too Online.

Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 5h

Virginia elections also test of “X is not real life” in Trump 2.0 era

Trans stuff ended up being very online thing that didn’t break through

Texts story bigger deal and open question how much it influences votes

But this place has also moved to the right since Trump 1.0

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Richard Skinner @richardmskinner.bsky.social · 5h

Yikes. I had them once and that was enough.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 18h

My item on this suggested that while it could be how inept Trump always is, what I suspect is going on is that the GOP has just lost the ability to talk to anyone outside their strongest supporters. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/underminin...

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 19h

(Politico) - One week into the government shutdown, top Republican leaders appear to have lost the plot.

#RepublicansInDisarray @politico.com
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...

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Richard Skinner @richardmskinner.bsky.social · 18h

Important to compare any rises in Miyares support with undecideds. Some Dems might go to undecided but later return to Jones.

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 18h

Tricky thing about polling down ballot is lower name ID

Much of lag w top of ticket can be explained by that

Looking at races in isolation misses straight ticket voting

Explains polling misses in 2024 Senate like Pennsylvania

The texts story will make things extra tricky

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 18h

Since August there were 7 non-partisan polls with Virginia AG

Average was Jones +5.1%

There were 3 GOP internal or aligned polls with AG numbers

Average was Jones +1.6%

Could see GOP internal released with Miyares up

Miyares up in non-partisan poll would show bigger movement

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 18h

Cook Political poll find Prop 50 up 50% to 34% among registered voters in California: www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/hou...

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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 1d

Ruben Gallego on whether Trump is talking to Democrats:

“Look, the President clearly has some kind of dementia, so I think there's a he's probably talking to himself, or think he's talking to a Democrat, but I sincerely doubt that that's actually he's actually physically talking to a Democrat.“

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Axios @axios.com · 20h

Scoop: Maine Gov. Janet Mills is poised to jump into Maine Senate race

Scoop: Mills poised to jump into Maine Senate race

Gov. Janey Mills' entry into the race would set off another complicated Democratic primary.

trib.al

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Renee DiResta @noupside.bsky.social · 1d

“Who was president in 2020?” is the question of our time

Senator Jim Banks V
@SenatorBanks
Follow g..
The 2020 Census was a fraud. The Biden admin used a shady "privacy" formula that scrambled the data and miscounted 14 states.
It included illegal immigrants and handed
Democrats extra seats. Americans deserve a fair count and l'm fighting to fix it.
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MASHNORON DEYNN
October 6, 2025
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Socretary
U.S. Department of Commerce Washington, DXC 20230
Dear Secretary Lutaick:
I urge you to investigate and correct erroes from the 2020 Census that handed disproportionntd political power to Democrats and illogal alicns. The Census Burcau adoptod a now and opaque
voting districts. As preparod by the Biden administration, the 2020 Censas roports miscountod the population of fourteen states, ' wrongly allocating six congressional scats aod Electoral
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Consus data plays a crucial role in allocating political roprescntation and goverment funding
Under the Constitution, cach state gets Congressional represcotutives and Electoeal College votes- based on "the whole number of persons" within the state." The number of persoes is in
tum clabaabod by a consttubocalty-mandalcd dcccacaal ccavas. Pcual agcco nely on census data to allocate billions of dollars in federal funding, much of which hinges ee opulation. And states use consus data to deaw congrossicnal and voting districts, »hich the
The it eiy of tie soaren alie n tor dur at ce hor inc ae oam toy ee n
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Diffcrcntial privacy is opaque and liable to mistakcn count totals. Sure cnough, the 2020 Ccnsus ovarocunted the noculation in cicht states and undercounted it in six." Tihe most extrcmi andercount was Arkansas, at 5.04%, and the larg…

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Richard Skinner @richardmskinner.bsky.social · 23h

The Dem advantages for other offices are just insane.

Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 23h

Republicans currently have about $2 million edge in ad reservations for Virginia Attorney General

But Dems have overwhelmingly advantage for every other office

Combined Dems have over $8 million more in reservations

Hard to know how much AG specific messages can break through

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Reposted by Richard Skinner

Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 23h

Republicans currently have about $2 million edge in ad reservations for Virginia Attorney General

But Dems have overwhelmingly advantage for every other office

Combined Dems have over $8 million more in reservations

Hard to know how much AG specific messages can break through

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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 1d

Just as a reminder, Bondi’s origin story in Trump world is that she said she was going to investigate Trump University, Trump sent her a $25K check and the investigation disappeared. She later became Trump’s personal defense lawyer. So yeah, don’t challenge her integrity.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 1d

Bondi to Blumenthal: "You lied. How dare you? I'm a career prosecutor. Don't you ever challenge my integrity. Do not question my ability to be fair and impartial."

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Dana Houle @danahoule.bsky.social · 1d

Don’t let the Homan bribery story go away. It will be important in figuring out the corruption throughout the entire DHS system.

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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 1d

Less than a year into the Trump admin and the National Governors Association, founded over 115 years ago, is on the brink of collapse.

Heather Cherone @heathercherone.bsky.social · 1d

Pritzker is also furious: “Should National Governors Association leadership choose to remain silent, Illinois will have no choice but to withdraw from the organization.”

Gov. JB Pritzker’s letter to the National Governors Association

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Richard Skinner @richardmskinner.bsky.social · 1d

Kaine won 2024 Senate race, 54%-45%. So Miyares needs a lot of Kaine voters, too.

Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 1d

Most Virginia Dems have been silent after initial batch of statements

But notable backing for Jay Jones from Senator Tim Kaine

Kaine served as Virginia Governor and Lt. Governor

So understands role of statewide office

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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 1d

Most Virginia Dems have been silent after initial batch of statements

But notable backing for Jay Jones from Senator Tim Kaine

Kaine served as Virginia Governor and Lt. Governor

So understands role of statewide office

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Richard Skinner @richardmskinner.bsky.social · 1d

Earle-Sears seems to have absolutely no idea how to appeal to the median voter.

Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 1d

I still don’t understand why they thought this would be good to use in an attack ad in Virginia

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Richard Skinner @richardmskinner.bsky.social · 1d

Trump could have just said "open the government now!" But culture warriors gotta culture war.

🎃🪦 BLOODSUGARSETHMASKET 🪦🎃 @smotus.bsky.social · 1d

A student told me about this but I had to confirm myself: when you call the White House Comment Line (202-456-1111), there's a recording of Karoline Leavitt blaming Democrats for the shutdown because of their love for illegal immigrants.