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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 13h

South Jersey politics continues to be wild

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 14h

Nah it's cool man lol

They're in the mid-to-late 40's and neither have college degrees

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 16h

Not explicitly, but she's definitely more conservative than the average voter. I think she liked Trump's showmanship more than everything too.

Also my dad's a mega Trump fan, so she gets some of that from him

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 16h

Nope, she was never into politics before Trump either

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 17h

I think she didn't vote at all in 2016, but did vote for him in 2020 and 2024.

She barely pays attention to politics outside of Trump

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 19h

After flipping #AD03 back from the Republicans in 2023, the New Jersey Democrats are in for another tough battle in this Trump+8 district this year.

With Ciattarelli probably winning here by 10+, it's going to be an uphill battle to retain these seats.

RATING: Lean R (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 1d

Today in totally anecdotal news: I listened to my Trump-voting mother rant about how bad ICE is and how they're racially profiling Hispanics

She also ranted about all the (what she calls) "White Trash" in our home town who go on Facebook and get mad at Hispanics who make posts about where ICE is at

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 1d

The New Jersey Democrats are hoping to get lucky in Atlantic City this year by flipping #AD02.

However, their odds aren't really that great as the Harris+1 district is more Republican downballot and has two moderate GOP incumbents who regularly overperform.

RATING: Likely R

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 2d

One of the two Republican incumbents resigned in order to head a state prison, so one of the two seats for the district will be up next month

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 2d

Biden+7/Clinton+5

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 2d

New Hampshire Democrats are hoping to flip back a seat that's been trending away from them in a special election next month, namely #HDCoos5 in Berlin.

This seat backed Trump by 4, but the Dems are running a former State Rep who barely lost in 2024.

RATING: Toss-Up

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 2d

The newest edition of Grand Old Primary is out now! This time around, we’re covering an election that signified an end of an era in Illinois politics, the 2018 Illinois Republican Governor primary!

Check it out below!
open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...

Grand Old Primary: The Land of Lincoln Showdown

Taking a look at the 2018 Illinois Republican Governor Primary!

open.substack.com

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 3d

Democratic nominee in a winnable County Legislature district disappeared back in April and is presumed dead. Dems are trying to replace him on the ballot, but the GOP don't want to lose the seat (it only backed Trump by 5 and probably backed Biden), so they're suing to keep him on the ballot.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 3d

Trump+22 district, so Van Epps should be the favorite here. I'm expecting a good Behn overperformance though, considering that Nashville should punch above its weight in a lower turnout special election.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 3d

The #TN07 primaries were tonight! Very lowkey election night a month before the big show lol.

Trump-endorsed former State Cabinet member Matt Van Epps easily won the Republican primary.

State Rep Aftyn Behn won the Democratic primary with just 28% of the vote!

They will face off in December now.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 3d

Court-ordered redistricting in Mississippi has given the Democrats an opportunity at gaining a Senate seat in the Memphis suburbs, specifically #SD02.

This district backed Harris by 6 last year and backed Brandon Presley for Governor by 15 in 2023.

RATING: Toss-Up

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 4d

a man and a woman are looking at each other and the man is asking " both "

ALT: a man and a woman are looking at each other and the man is asking " both "

media.tenor.com

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 4d

Thanks to court-ordered redistricting, the Democrats are hoping to flip Mississippi's #HD22 next month. This district backed Harris by less than a point and is represented by a Democrat-turned-Republican in Jon Lancaster.

Can the Dems punish a party switcher?

RATING: Toss-Up

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 5d

With November fast approaching, I'm announcing a new map series on here.

From tomorrow until the end of month, I'll be posting at least one map a day of each competitive state legislative district up for grabs next month! From New Jersey to Virginia and all the specials!

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 6d

Illinois Dems finally got a candidate to announce for the Republican-held #SD24 in northern/central DuPage County (Harris+3) and his name is, I kid you not...

Ben McAdams

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 6d

Back in 1990, Connecticut had a chaotic gubernatorial election. Two Congressmen ran for the job, but in the end, it was a former US Senator who won it.

Former Republican Senator Lowell Weicker formed his own centrist Connecticut Party and ended up winning here by three points.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 7d

Last year, California's #AD36 flipped red on both the Presidential level and the State Assembly level. Nestled in Imperial/eastern Riverside Counties, this majority-Hispanic district swung from Biden+15 to Trump+1.

At the same time, Assembly Republicans flipped it by 4 points.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 8d

Shoutout to Will County Board Member Frankie Pretzel

Yes, you, Mr. Pretzel

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 8d

I probably will do that if I ever get around to making IDC primary maps

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 8d

Over in Alaska, Louise Stutes was one of the major Republicans players in the State House who left the GOP caucus to form a Majority Coalition with the Dems and Independents.

She ascended to the Speakership after 2020 and beat back a Republican challenger in 2022 in her #HD05.

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