Dean Oliver
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Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social
2.9K followers 55 following 630 posts
Sports analytics pioneer, focusing most on basketball. ESPN, NBA.
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · Jan 22
How should a husband and wife divide credit when she says, "Remind me to go to the drugstore," and then he does it? How to divide credit if she remembers? How to divide the blame if neither remembers? ... with basketball sprinkled in.

open.substack.com/pub/ldeano/p...
Piece of Harmony
Aligning team and player incentives in credit and blame
open.substack.com
These are the records that teams need to have to make the play-in or to achieve a top 6 seed with 90% confidence.
February 13, 2026 at 9:00 PM
Here are some significant players who have changed teams this and how well they are doing relative to before the trade. Not a lot of games yet, so things haven't stabilized.
February 12, 2026 at 8:18 PM
This came out.

Visual storytelling using Net Points.
lukeknox.me Luke Knox @lukeknox.me · 2d
NEW PROJECT: In this year's NBA All-Star Game, the U.S. is taking on the World -- or at least its best hoops talent. Can you build an eight-player American team that can win this first-of-its-kind event? It's all measured with ESPN's new Net Points metric.

www.espn.com/espn/feature...
February 11, 2026 at 9:57 PM
Looking at our top 10 NBA prospects in the Draft Simulator, this is how well they've done *against BPI Top 25 opponents*
- Best offense is Flemings, Boozer, Lendeborg
- Peterson and Lendeborg are high on defense
- Wagler, Dybantsa, Brown below avg on D

espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...
February 10, 2026 at 5:55 PM
There were 27 college men's games yesterday and the top two players across all of them both came from Louisville.

Combining for +41.6 total net points, it was easily the best teammate-game of the year.

espnanalytics.com/mcbb-box?id=...
February 10, 2026 at 2:21 PM
The relationship between possession use, efficiency, and overall productivity, which comes from the book Basketball beyond Paper
- Don't have to be as efficient at high usage to be productive.
- But small efficiency differences at high usage can lead to large differences in productivity
February 10, 2026 at 1:36 PM
In the context of the rest of the season, Castle's big night last night was easily his best of the year and still you see the bumpy ups and downs of player performance.

espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
February 8, 2026 at 4:34 PM
When a team basically wouldn't have won without a player's performance - we call that a threshold win. And We added it to our MCBB gamelogs.

Here is Ebuka Okorie of Stanford, for example, who has 5 threshold W, 0 threshold Ls - best in the Power 5+BE

espnanalytics.com/mcbb-player-...
February 6, 2026 at 8:13 PM
This has to be a fun ride for the Hornets. Their starting lineup is all positive at this point.

Miller has been on a tear for 3 weeks, Knueppel has been good since mid-December.
February 6, 2026 at 7:26 PM
Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecombe are having what I'd call a typical rookie up-and-down season. Typical for a good rookie, that is.

Knueppel showed an early flat period, then he took off.

Flagg is a little in-between, taking off recently, but still showing ups/downs.
February 6, 2026 at 6:59 PM
I'm heading to Connecticut in April for the Connecticut Sports Analytics Symposium. Giving a talk with the boring title of

Why division of (micro)credit helps in sports

The talk should be better than the title.

statds.org/events/csas2...
CSAS 2026 : Keynote Sessions
statds.org
February 6, 2026 at 3:39 PM
Up to the point of the trade, Jonathan Kuminga
- Has never posted a positive season in Net Pts
- His offense this year was at its worst
- He is at #384 (of 391) in Passing

I have to think he will be better where he feels appreciated. But still not good.

espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
February 5, 2026 at 2:44 PM
NBA teams and how many times different players led their team in Net Pts - in Wins only.
- OKC has 40 wins, SGA has led them in 24 of them.
- Naz Reid has led MIN the most in wins, even though Ant has far better overall performance
February 5, 2026 at 2:27 PM
The UConn men won last night behind Silas DeMary Jr.'s +6.9 total net pts. The Huskies have had 9 different players lead them in 22 wins.

Among BPI Top 25 teams, though, Kentucky has had 8 different net pts leaders in their 15 wins.
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-daily-s...
February 4, 2026 at 2:31 PM
Darryn Peterson was clutch last night for KU, posting +4.2 net points when the game was within 5 with 5 min left, best on the team.

There isn't a lot of clutch time in college. Peterson only has 18 poss all year and half were last night.

espnanalytics.com/mcbb-box?id=...
February 3, 2026 at 2:03 PM
Syracuse plays UNC tonight and you can get a statistical preview from our Net Pts metrics.

For example, here are the ACC's top transition players
- Cuse has Donnie Freeman in the top 10
- UNC has Trimble and Wilson

espnanalytics.com/mcbb-award-l...
February 2, 2026 at 9:54 PM
College Basketball Net Points

This is the metric we use for player valuation, available at a game or season level, adjusted for schedule or not, with breakdowns of why.

For a versatile leaderboard, showing top players across a lot of categories, start here:
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-award-l...
February 2, 2026 at 9:27 PM
College Basketball Net Points

This is the metric we use for player valuation, available at a game or season level, adjusted for schedule or not, with breakdowns of why.

For a scoreboard, you can start here:
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-daily-s...
February 2, 2026 at 9:22 PM
Following up again on the story of how Kawhi started taking more 3s on 12/20 (www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...)
- He was at +40 net pts over 17 games, then +108 in next 18 Gs
- He was at +10 in net pts on 3s, +37 since. The 27 pt improvement is almost the whole O increase. Rest is on D
February 2, 2026 at 5:15 PM
Jarrett Allen's huge night last night - his best of the year. But he did have a great one back on 11/5 against Philly, too. He had 5 games of at least 8 net points last year. This was his second this year.

espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
February 2, 2026 at 4:46 PM
One year ago, Luka Doncic was traded for Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a future first.

Since then
- Luka Doncic was 13.6 wins above replacement
- AD has 1.6
- Christie has 2.0
February 2, 2026 at 1:54 PM
SAC traded Keon Ellis over the weekend. He was one of their most valued assets, but has played poorly this year. He was valued because his prior work was good enough to project a good future, but metrics are uncertain:
- EPM expected -1.5
- LEBRON -0.5
- DARKO +0.4
- xRAPM +1.3
February 2, 2026 at 1:48 PM
This column says how the LAC coaching staff finally got through to Kawhi to take more 3s on 12/20.

In the graphic here, you can see a lot more green, meaning positive net pts, since then. You can *change* performance... Kinda suggests CP wasn't the (whole) problem.

www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
January 31, 2026 at 12:09 AM
These are the teams most unhealthy and least unhealthy in terms of losses added due to their own injuries and those of opponents they played.

>> Assumed Haliburton, Lillard, and Tatum out for the year, but not Kyrie
January 30, 2026 at 10:12 PM
Cooper Flagg's production at the rim last night was soooo much better than it was in any game all year.

It was actually the second best game at the rim across the league all year.

espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
January 30, 2026 at 2:25 PM