Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social
Sports analytics pioneer, focusing most on basketball. ESPN, NBA.
Pinned
Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social
· Jan 22
Piece of Harmony
Aligning team and player incentives in credit and blame
open.substack.com
How should a husband and wife divide credit when she says, "Remind me to go to the drugstore," and then he does it? How to divide credit if she remembers? How to divide the blame if neither remembers? ... with basketball sprinkled in.
open.substack.com/pub/ldeano/p...
open.substack.com/pub/ldeano/p...
I wanted to see if there were any defenders who are particularly good at contesting catch/shoot 3s. Incorporating number of shots, percentage, & quality of shooter, I get ~45 of each good and bad contesters (over last 2+ yrs) that are statistically significant.
Using GeniusIQ.
Using GeniusIQ.
November 25, 2025 at 9:50 PM
I wanted to see if there were any defenders who are particularly good at contesting catch/shoot 3s. Incorporating number of shots, percentage, & quality of shooter, I get ~45 of each good and bad contesters (over last 2+ yrs) that are statistically significant.
Using GeniusIQ.
Using GeniusIQ.
These players have the highest cost of defensive fouls and D3s violations in terms of Net Pts.
- Indiana centers!
- And-ones, techs, transition takes can really hurt. Jokic has 6 D3 violations
- Dillon Brooks was top 10 the prior two years, not this year (yet).
- Indiana centers!
- And-ones, techs, transition takes can really hurt. Jokic has 6 D3 violations
- Dillon Brooks was top 10 the prior two years, not this year (yet).
November 25, 2025 at 7:49 PM
These players have the highest cost of defensive fouls and D3s violations in terms of Net Pts.
- Indiana centers!
- And-ones, techs, transition takes can really hurt. Jokic has 6 D3 violations
- Dillon Brooks was top 10 the prior two years, not this year (yet).
- Indiana centers!
- And-ones, techs, transition takes can really hurt. Jokic has 6 D3 violations
- Dillon Brooks was top 10 the prior two years, not this year (yet).
Now here are the best individual players off the bench.
Kinda depressing (for competitive balance) that OKC - with the best starters - also has the top three players off the bench.
(Minimum 8 Gs off bench. Or Coby White's 2 G would have led.)
Kinda depressing (for competitive balance) that OKC - with the best starters - also has the top three players off the bench.
(Minimum 8 Gs off bench. Or Coby White's 2 G would have led.)
November 25, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Now here are the best individual players off the bench.
Kinda depressing (for competitive balance) that OKC - with the best starters - also has the top three players off the bench.
(Minimum 8 Gs off bench. Or Coby White's 2 G would have led.)
Kinda depressing (for competitive balance) that OKC - with the best starters - also has the top three players off the bench.
(Minimum 8 Gs off bench. Or Coby White's 2 G would have led.)
NBA starter vs bench update
- Best bench is Houston
- Best starters at OKC
- Biggest diff between starters and bench is DEN, though there is competition
- Memphis, SAC, and CHI getting more from bench than starters by good amount.
- Best bench is Houston
- Best starters at OKC
- Biggest diff between starters and bench is DEN, though there is competition
- Memphis, SAC, and CHI getting more from bench than starters by good amount.
November 25, 2025 at 6:24 PM
NBA starter vs bench update
- Best bench is Houston
- Best starters at OKC
- Biggest diff between starters and bench is DEN, though there is competition
- Memphis, SAC, and CHI getting more from bench than starters by good amount.
- Best bench is Houston
- Best starters at OKC
- Biggest diff between starters and bench is DEN, though there is competition
- Memphis, SAC, and CHI getting more from bench than starters by good amount.
On the ESPNAnalytics NBA Daily Summary page, we list Daily Awards for lots of categories, like Speed Demon (most net pts in transition offense) and Glass Cleaner (most net points on rebounding).
Coming soon is a tool to look at all categories for the yr.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Coming soon is a tool to look at all categories for the yr.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 25, 2025 at 3:47 PM
On the ESPNAnalytics NBA Daily Summary page, we list Daily Awards for lots of categories, like Speed Demon (most net pts in transition offense) and Glass Cleaner (most net points on rebounding).
Coming soon is a tool to look at all categories for the yr.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Coming soon is a tool to look at all categories for the yr.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
The Pistons are about 16 net pts/G better this year than 2 yrs ago.
About 60% is improvement in players still there, which is mostly core - Cade, Duren, Stewart, Ausar.
But the new guys are also dramatically better - Harris, LeVert, Reed, and the two-way Jenkins (?!?).
About 60% is improvement in players still there, which is mostly core - Cade, Duren, Stewart, Ausar.
But the new guys are also dramatically better - Harris, LeVert, Reed, and the two-way Jenkins (?!?).
November 25, 2025 at 2:57 PM
The Pistons are about 16 net pts/G better this year than 2 yrs ago.
About 60% is improvement in players still there, which is mostly core - Cade, Duren, Stewart, Ausar.
But the new guys are also dramatically better - Harris, LeVert, Reed, and the two-way Jenkins (?!?).
About 60% is improvement in players still there, which is mostly core - Cade, Duren, Stewart, Ausar.
But the new guys are also dramatically better - Harris, LeVert, Reed, and the two-way Jenkins (?!?).
Does Houston's offensive rebound emphasis hurt their transition D?
- Small amount, it appears, but not enough to offset the gain they get on the glass. (I've found this before more generally.)
- GeniusIQ has them for 2nd fewest transition D poss, but high efficiency allowed
1/2
- Small amount, it appears, but not enough to offset the gain they get on the glass. (I've found this before more generally.)
- GeniusIQ has them for 2nd fewest transition D poss, but high efficiency allowed
1/2
November 25, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Does Houston's offensive rebound emphasis hurt their transition D?
- Small amount, it appears, but not enough to offset the gain they get on the glass. (I've found this before more generally.)
- GeniusIQ has them for 2nd fewest transition D poss, but high efficiency allowed
1/2
- Small amount, it appears, but not enough to offset the gain they get on the glass. (I've found this before more generally.)
- GeniusIQ has them for 2nd fewest transition D poss, but high efficiency allowed
1/2
Rookie numbers, with a little bit of explanation for how they're doing as well (or as poorly) as they are.
- Knueppel has most games with +1 or better
- Bailey climbed out of the bottom
- At this time last yr, these rookies were positive: McCain, Mitchell, Edey, Wells, Knecht
- Knueppel has most games with +1 or better
- Bailey climbed out of the bottom
- At this time last yr, these rookies were positive: McCain, Mitchell, Edey, Wells, Knecht
November 24, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Rookie numbers, with a little bit of explanation for how they're doing as well (or as poorly) as they are.
- Knueppel has most games with +1 or better
- Bailey climbed out of the bottom
- At this time last yr, these rookies were positive: McCain, Mitchell, Edey, Wells, Knecht
- Knueppel has most games with +1 or better
- Bailey climbed out of the bottom
- At this time last yr, these rookies were positive: McCain, Mitchell, Edey, Wells, Knecht
Top games in losses this year. Four of them this weekend.
- Kon Knueppel had the 2nd best game in a loss this year last night.
- Jokic had the 4th best in a loss (to SAC!)
- Andrew Nembhard had the 6th best
- Anthony Edwards had the 10th best
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
- Kon Knueppel had the 2nd best game in a loss this year last night.
- Jokic had the 4th best in a loss (to SAC!)
- Andrew Nembhard had the 6th best
- Anthony Edwards had the 10th best
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
November 24, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Top games in losses this year. Four of them this weekend.
- Kon Knueppel had the 2nd best game in a loss this year last night.
- Jokic had the 4th best in a loss (to SAC!)
- Andrew Nembhard had the 6th best
- Anthony Edwards had the 10th best
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
- Kon Knueppel had the 2nd best game in a loss this year last night.
- Jokic had the 4th best in a loss (to SAC!)
- Andrew Nembhard had the 6th best
- Anthony Edwards had the 10th best
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
Statistical significance on performance differences with last year is tough this early. These are some guys doing it where I tend to believe it:
- Jalen Johnson,+0.6 per 48 to +3.7
- T Maxey, +0.6 to +4.6
- Duren, +1.2 to +5.8
- R Sheppard, -3.6 to +3.2
- B Mathurin, -0.8 to +4.2
- Jalen Johnson,+0.6 per 48 to +3.7
- T Maxey, +0.6 to +4.6
- Duren, +1.2 to +5.8
- R Sheppard, -3.6 to +3.2
- B Mathurin, -0.8 to +4.2
November 21, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Statistical significance on performance differences with last year is tough this early. These are some guys doing it where I tend to believe it:
- Jalen Johnson,+0.6 per 48 to +3.7
- T Maxey, +0.6 to +4.6
- Duren, +1.2 to +5.8
- R Sheppard, -3.6 to +3.2
- B Mathurin, -0.8 to +4.2
- Jalen Johnson,+0.6 per 48 to +3.7
- T Maxey, +0.6 to +4.6
- Duren, +1.2 to +5.8
- R Sheppard, -3.6 to +3.2
- B Mathurin, -0.8 to +4.2
ESPN Analytics has a draft simulator to play around with. Spin the lottery, see the prospects likely available for your pick, make deals. We'll update through the year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...
espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...
November 21, 2025 at 2:33 PM
ESPN Analytics has a draft simulator to play around with. Spin the lottery, see the prospects likely available for your pick, make deals. We'll update through the year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...
espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...
The Phoenix Suns are 9-6, better than the anticipated bottom 4 in the West. But their record is the same as last yr at this time.
- Allen, Dunn better, but not stat significant yet
- Brooks matching Durant's output - not sustainable
- They started 9-2 last yr, so fall had started
- Allen, Dunn better, but not stat significant yet
- Brooks matching Durant's output - not sustainable
- They started 9-2 last yr, so fall had started
November 21, 2025 at 2:09 PM
The Phoenix Suns are 9-6, better than the anticipated bottom 4 in the West. But their record is the same as last yr at this time.
- Allen, Dunn better, but not stat significant yet
- Brooks matching Durant's output - not sustainable
- They started 9-2 last yr, so fall had started
- Allen, Dunn better, but not stat significant yet
- Brooks matching Durant's output - not sustainable
- They started 9-2 last yr, so fall had started
Looking at players who have done well despite their team. Specifically, they have positive net points but their +/- is negative.
- Two Clippers
- Garza and Grant on teams closest to 0.500
(Eq +/- is just +/- divided by 5)
- Two Clippers
- Garza and Grant on teams closest to 0.500
(Eq +/- is just +/- divided by 5)
November 18, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Looking at players who have done well despite their team. Specifically, they have positive net points but their +/- is negative.
- Two Clippers
- Garza and Grant on teams closest to 0.500
(Eq +/- is just +/- divided by 5)
- Two Clippers
- Garza and Grant on teams closest to 0.500
(Eq +/- is just +/- divided by 5)
The 2021 NBA Draft Class has been pretty good. Some misses, for sure, but some long careers up and down the first round.
The table shows the progression of total Net Pts/48 min, regardless of minutes. Progress is not a straight line, though you can see the trend.
The table shows the progression of total Net Pts/48 min, regardless of minutes. Progress is not a straight line, though you can see the trend.
November 18, 2025 at 1:51 PM
The 2021 NBA Draft Class has been pretty good. Some misses, for sure, but some long careers up and down the first round.
The table shows the progression of total Net Pts/48 min, regardless of minutes. Progress is not a straight line, though you can see the trend.
The table shows the progression of total Net Pts/48 min, regardless of minutes. Progress is not a straight line, though you can see the trend.
Last night, Denver's starters were 31.2 net points better than their bench, +14.1 to -17.1, and they lost by 3 to the Bulls).
That was the best performance by starters to lose a game this year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
(Chicago's win came with second-worst starters of year.)
That was the best performance by starters to lose a game this year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
(Chicago's win came with second-worst starters of year.)
November 18, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Last night, Denver's starters were 31.2 net points better than their bench, +14.1 to -17.1, and they lost by 3 to the Bulls).
That was the best performance by starters to lose a game this year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
(Chicago's win came with second-worst starters of year.)
That was the best performance by starters to lose a game this year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
(Chicago's win came with second-worst starters of year.)
There was speculation on-air about whether Kel'el Ware had his best career game tonight.
By net points, he did, posting +8.5 tonight. His next best was +7.3.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
By net points, he did, posting +8.5 tonight. His next best was +7.3.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
November 18, 2025 at 3:52 AM
There was speculation on-air about whether Kel'el Ware had his best career game tonight.
By net points, he did, posting +8.5 tonight. His next best was +7.3.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
By net points, he did, posting +8.5 tonight. His next best was +7.3.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
OKC took two overtimes to beat IND three weeks ago. They have also beaten New Orleans, Washington, Sac twice, Charlotte, Memphis, Dallas.
It's the weakest schedule so far, but they've managed it convincingly, which is why they're #1 in BPI.
www.espn.com/nba/bpi
It's the weakest schedule so far, but they've managed it convincingly, which is why they're #1 in BPI.
www.espn.com/nba/bpi
November 17, 2025 at 6:48 PM
OKC took two overtimes to beat IND three weeks ago. They have also beaten New Orleans, Washington, Sac twice, Charlotte, Memphis, Dallas.
It's the weakest schedule so far, but they've managed it convincingly, which is why they're #1 in BPI.
www.espn.com/nba/bpi
It's the weakest schedule so far, but they've managed it convincingly, which is why they're #1 in BPI.
www.espn.com/nba/bpi
A link to the Moneyball podcast I did a couple weeks ago.
- Watching sports in Hawaii
- Wemby and anti-gravity
- Maxey in Philly, expectations
- Cooper Flagg/Rookies in general
- Austin Reaves, multi-level shooters
- Division of credit
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/podcast/mone...
- Watching sports in Hawaii
- Wemby and anti-gravity
- Maxey in Philly, expectations
- Cooper Flagg/Rookies in general
- Austin Reaves, multi-level shooters
- Division of credit
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/podcast/mone...
Early NBA Trends With Dean Oliver
ESPN sports analyst discusses how emerging stars and advanced analytics are reshaping the NBA’s early season storylines.…Read More
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu
November 17, 2025 at 5:02 PM
A link to the Moneyball podcast I did a couple weeks ago.
- Watching sports in Hawaii
- Wemby and anti-gravity
- Maxey in Philly, expectations
- Cooper Flagg/Rookies in general
- Austin Reaves, multi-level shooters
- Division of credit
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/podcast/mone...
- Watching sports in Hawaii
- Wemby and anti-gravity
- Maxey in Philly, expectations
- Cooper Flagg/Rookies in general
- Austin Reaves, multi-level shooters
- Division of credit
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/podcast/mone...
Pritchard's line fascinated me. He was so good in his shooting, yet his plus/minus was terrible. His oNet pts was +9.6, his dNet bad -6.2.
How often does this happen? Landry Shamet the other night was close, +11.1 on O, -4.3 on D.
Brunson, Maxey, Trae did similar last year.
How often does this happen? Landry Shamet the other night was close, +11.1 on O, -4.3 on D.
Brunson, Maxey, Trae did similar last year.
November 17, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Pritchard's line fascinated me. He was so good in his shooting, yet his plus/minus was terrible. His oNet pts was +9.6, his dNet bad -6.2.
How often does this happen? Landry Shamet the other night was close, +11.1 on O, -4.3 on D.
Brunson, Maxey, Trae did similar last year.
How often does this happen? Landry Shamet the other night was close, +11.1 on O, -4.3 on D.
Brunson, Maxey, Trae did similar last year.
Some candidates for Best Clutch Player for yesterday alone, which had a lot of clutch time.
November 17, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Some candidates for Best Clutch Player for yesterday alone, which had a lot of clutch time.
A great defensive game last night: Oso Ighodaro with +11 defensive net pts, best of the year
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
November 14, 2025 at 1:23 PM
A great defensive game last night: Oso Ighodaro with +11 defensive net pts, best of the year
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
After Cade Cunningham's 31-miss night on Monday, some people asked what other Pistons should be shooting with so many injuries.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
November 13, 2025 at 3:53 PM
After Cade Cunningham's 31-miss night on Monday, some people asked what other Pistons should be shooting with so many injuries.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
Yesterday had two players with positive net points despite having a -20 or worse plus/minus.
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 13, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Yesterday had two players with positive net points despite having a -20 or worse plus/minus.
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Nikola Jokic had the best night of the season, with +19.8 net pts, 55 pts scored, on 18/23 shooting, just 2 tov.
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
November 13, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Nikola Jokic had the best night of the season, with +19.8 net pts, 55 pts scored, on 18/23 shooting, just 2 tov.
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 23.1 ppg after 18.2 last year.
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
November 12, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 23.1 ppg after 18.2 last year.
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved