Dan Hopkins
@dhopkins1776.bsky.social
Political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania. Prof: http://goo.gl/qAOlH9 538: http://goo.gl/1iwZJs
Can anyone point me to good pieces on American economic policy towards Russia in the 1990s and its impacts, including (but not limited to) Larry Summers' role? Thanks.
November 25, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Can anyone point me to good pieces on American economic policy towards Russia in the 1990s and its impacts, including (but not limited to) Larry Summers' role? Thanks.
Curious how UK citizens' preferences have changed as Reform UK has surged in polls?
Just got back the 3rd wave of a @yougov.co.uk panel survey tracing preferences from before the 7/24 election.
Very fragmented. Reminiscent of the moment in spring 2019 when four UK parties were thisclose.
Just got back the 3rd wave of a @yougov.co.uk panel survey tracing preferences from before the 7/24 election.
Very fragmented. Reminiscent of the moment in spring 2019 when four UK parties were thisclose.
November 17, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Curious how UK citizens' preferences have changed as Reform UK has surged in polls?
Just got back the 3rd wave of a @yougov.co.uk panel survey tracing preferences from before the 7/24 election.
Very fragmented. Reminiscent of the moment in spring 2019 when four UK parties were thisclose.
Just got back the 3rd wave of a @yougov.co.uk panel survey tracing preferences from before the 7/24 election.
Very fragmented. Reminiscent of the moment in spring 2019 when four UK parties were thisclose.
"When the waves turn the minutes to hours..."
November 10, 2025 at 1:10 PM
"When the waves turn the minutes to hours..."
My $0.02 on grade inflation, which I'm grateful to the @dailypenn.bsky.social for publishing.
URL: www.thedp.com/article/2025...
URL: www.thedp.com/article/2025...
Daniel J. Hopkins | Time to deflate grades
Guest columnist Daniel J. Hopkins argues that grade inflation weakens the impact of a Penn education.
www.thedp.com
November 6, 2025 at 6:43 PM
My $0.02 on grade inflation, which I'm grateful to the @dailypenn.bsky.social for publishing.
URL: www.thedp.com/article/2025...
URL: www.thedp.com/article/2025...
What are the likely impacts if the ACA enhanced tax credits expire?
In a 2021 JOP article, W Hobbs & I looked at the impacts of the ACA exchanges' 2014 roll-out on ACA opinions.
Effects were cross-cutting, with + effects for some offset by the negative effects on others.
1/3
In a 2021 JOP article, W Hobbs & I looked at the impacts of the ACA exchanges' 2014 roll-out on ACA opinions.
Effects were cross-cutting, with + effects for some offset by the negative effects on others.
1/3
October 29, 2025 at 4:36 PM
What are the likely impacts if the ACA enhanced tax credits expire?
In a 2021 JOP article, W Hobbs & I looked at the impacts of the ACA exchanges' 2014 roll-out on ACA opinions.
Effects were cross-cutting, with + effects for some offset by the negative effects on others.
1/3
In a 2021 JOP article, W Hobbs & I looked at the impacts of the ACA exchanges' 2014 roll-out on ACA opinions.
Effects were cross-cutting, with + effects for some offset by the negative effects on others.
1/3
Any recommendations for research on how political organizations--the Sierra Club, NRA, AMA, AFL-CIO, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, etc.--choose which political strategies to pursue? That is, when do they focus nationally versus at the state level? On legal activism versus ballot measures?
October 21, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Any recommendations for research on how political organizations--the Sierra Club, NRA, AMA, AFL-CIO, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, etc.--choose which political strategies to pursue? That is, when do they focus nationally versus at the state level? On legal activism versus ballot measures?
Reposted by Dan Hopkins
Survey 160 is hiring a survey scientist!
Please feel free to reach out to me directly with any questions, and also please share widely
www.survey160.com/survey-scien...
Please feel free to reach out to me directly with any questions, and also please share widely
www.survey160.com/survey-scien...
Survey Scientist — Survey 160
www.survey160.com
October 20, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Survey 160 is hiring a survey scientist!
Please feel free to reach out to me directly with any questions, and also please share widely
www.survey160.com/survey-scien...
Please feel free to reach out to me directly with any questions, and also please share widely
www.survey160.com/survey-scien...
My Philadelphia Inquirer op-ed w @chriswarshaw.bsky.social, "Gerrymandering is Bad. Expanding it is even worse," is out.
1 limit on gerrymandering -> inability to see the future. If the parties redraw district boundaries every cycle, anti-democratic biases grow.
www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm...
1 limit on gerrymandering -> inability to see the future. If the parties redraw district boundaries every cycle, anti-democratic biases grow.
www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm...
Gerrymandering is bad. Expanding it is even worse. | Opinion
Constant redistricting of electoral maps is likely to make congressional elections even less competitive.
www.inquirer.com
October 20, 2025 at 1:59 PM
My Philadelphia Inquirer op-ed w @chriswarshaw.bsky.social, "Gerrymandering is Bad. Expanding it is even worse," is out.
1 limit on gerrymandering -> inability to see the future. If the parties redraw district boundaries every cycle, anti-democratic biases grow.
www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm...
1 limit on gerrymandering -> inability to see the future. If the parties redraw district boundaries every cycle, anti-democratic biases grow.
www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm...
In 2023 & 2024 NORC surveys of Americans, I asked respondents to describe the political parties.
In '23, 4% of descriptions of the Dems mentioned that they were elitist in different ways; 3% said the same of the GOP.
In '24, 1% said the same about the Dems vs. 4% about the GOP.
In '23, 4% of descriptions of the Dems mentioned that they were elitist in different ways; 3% said the same of the GOP.
In '24, 1% said the same about the Dems vs. 4% about the GOP.
October 17, 2025 at 4:23 PM
In 2023 & 2024 NORC surveys of Americans, I asked respondents to describe the political parties.
In '23, 4% of descriptions of the Dems mentioned that they were elitist in different ways; 3% said the same of the GOP.
In '24, 1% said the same about the Dems vs. 4% about the GOP.
In '23, 4% of descriptions of the Dems mentioned that they were elitist in different ways; 3% said the same of the GOP.
In '24, 1% said the same about the Dems vs. 4% about the GOP.
In his interview w @jonfavs.bsky.social, @ezraklein.bsky.social asks, "why haven't the tariffs soured the public on Trump?"
An answer from my book on ACA opinions: the contemporary US economy is so diverse & complex that even sizable policy changes don't move opinions consistently.
An answer from my book on ACA opinions: the contemporary US economy is so diverse & complex that even sizable policy changes don't move opinions consistently.
October 15, 2025 at 3:28 PM
In his interview w @jonfavs.bsky.social, @ezraklein.bsky.social asks, "why haven't the tariffs soured the public on Trump?"
An answer from my book on ACA opinions: the contemporary US economy is so diverse & complex that even sizable policy changes don't move opinions consistently.
An answer from my book on ACA opinions: the contemporary US economy is so diverse & complex that even sizable policy changes don't move opinions consistently.
What predicts which NYC Democrats backed Cuomo or Mamdani in the primary?
I use March/April (green lines) & May/June (black lines) @today.yougov.com surveys to examine the attitudes that predict who backed Cuomo or Mamdani.
The most predictive question for both? Attitudes on police spending.
I use March/April (green lines) & May/June (black lines) @today.yougov.com surveys to examine the attitudes that predict who backed Cuomo or Mamdani.
The most predictive question for both? Attitudes on police spending.
October 14, 2025 at 4:35 PM
What predicts which NYC Democrats backed Cuomo or Mamdani in the primary?
I use March/April (green lines) & May/June (black lines) @today.yougov.com surveys to examine the attitudes that predict who backed Cuomo or Mamdani.
The most predictive question for both? Attitudes on police spending.
I use March/April (green lines) & May/June (black lines) @today.yougov.com surveys to examine the attitudes that predict who backed Cuomo or Mamdani.
The most predictive question for both? Attitudes on police spending.
Grateful the Daily Pennsylvanian asked for my views on the administration's proposed Compact.
www.thedp.com/article/2025...
www.thedp.com/article/2025...
October 8, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Grateful the Daily Pennsylvanian asked for my views on the administration's proposed Compact.
www.thedp.com/article/2025...
www.thedp.com/article/2025...
Of course, there are lots of ways that social media can influence politics beyond any direct influence on public attitudes.
Rather than shaping what we citizens think, social media could well shape what politicians think we think.
Rather than shaping what we citizens think, social media could well shape what politicians think we think.
This = from a NORC Feb./March 2024 survey.
Blue line shows the weighted average of affective polarization--the absolute difference in ratings of the Republicans & Democrats on the y-axis--by number of days getting news on social media (x-axis).
Not a strong relationship.
Blue line shows the weighted average of affective polarization--the absolute difference in ratings of the Republicans & Democrats on the y-axis--by number of days getting news on social media (x-axis).
Not a strong relationship.
September 18, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Of course, there are lots of ways that social media can influence politics beyond any direct influence on public attitudes.
Rather than shaping what we citizens think, social media could well shape what politicians think we think.
Rather than shaping what we citizens think, social media could well shape what politicians think we think.
This = from a NORC Feb./March 2024 survey.
Blue line shows the weighted average of affective polarization--the absolute difference in ratings of the Republicans & Democrats on the y-axis--by number of days getting news on social media (x-axis).
Not a strong relationship.
Blue line shows the weighted average of affective polarization--the absolute difference in ratings of the Republicans & Democrats on the y-axis--by number of days getting news on social media (x-axis).
Not a strong relationship.
September 18, 2025 at 7:23 PM
This = from a NORC Feb./March 2024 survey.
Blue line shows the weighted average of affective polarization--the absolute difference in ratings of the Republicans & Democrats on the y-axis--by number of days getting news on social media (x-axis).
Not a strong relationship.
Blue line shows the weighted average of affective polarization--the absolute difference in ratings of the Republicans & Democrats on the y-axis--by number of days getting news on social media (x-axis).
Not a strong relationship.
"While this trend is serious and dangerous, it is one of individual radicalization, not a coherent mass movement. It is a whisper aimed at the unstable man in his basement — validating his terror of a murderous opposition."
Sean Westwood at Politico: www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Sean Westwood at Politico: www.politico.com/news/magazin...
10 Political Violence Experts on What Comes Next for America
Can America escape the spiral of political violence after Charlie Kirk’s killing?
www.politico.com
September 12, 2025 at 12:51 PM
"While this trend is serious and dangerous, it is one of individual radicalization, not a coherent mass movement. It is a whisper aimed at the unstable man in his basement — validating his terror of a murderous opposition."
Sean Westwood at Politico: www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Sean Westwood at Politico: www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Reposted by Dan Hopkins
A new study by LDI Fellows Sara Handley and Emily Gregory finds rural parents face more hospitalizations & barriers to postpartum care than urban peers, while babies fare better overall. Integrating parent care into infant visits could help. Read more: https://bit.ly/46cEnDM
ldi.upenn.edu
September 11, 2025 at 7:07 PM
A new study by LDI Fellows Sara Handley and Emily Gregory finds rural parents face more hospitalizations & barriers to postpartum care than urban peers, while babies fare better overall. Integrating parent care into infant visits could help. Read more: https://bit.ly/46cEnDM
I remember so much about that morning 24 years ago in NYC--how clear the day was after the storms the day before. How a thin trail of smoke in an otherwise clear sky was the first I knew of the tragedy. How it was followed by an intense cloud once the Towers collapsed. 1/
September 11, 2025 at 12:19 PM
I remember so much about that morning 24 years ago in NYC--how clear the day was after the storms the day before. How a thin trail of smoke in an otherwise clear sky was the first I knew of the tragedy. How it was followed by an intense cloud once the Towers collapsed. 1/
Despite their well-documented flaws, I think universities are uniquely positioned to help the US think through the complex economic, social, political, legal, ethical, technological, & military questions raised by contemporary and emerging uses of AI.
September 8, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Despite their well-documented flaws, I think universities are uniquely positioned to help the US think through the complex economic, social, political, legal, ethical, technological, & military questions raised by contemporary and emerging uses of AI.
In my NORC 2024 panel, respondents who didn't match to the voter file were *18.5 percentage points* more pro-Trump than the sample overall.
My guess: Trump voters were less willing to give the information needed to match to voter records.
My guess: Trump voters were less willing to give the information needed to match to voter records.
September 2, 2025 at 4:21 PM
In my NORC 2024 panel, respondents who didn't match to the voter file were *18.5 percentage points* more pro-Trump than the sample overall.
My guess: Trump voters were less willing to give the information needed to match to voter records.
My guess: Trump voters were less willing to give the information needed to match to voter records.
I'm going to sidestep the substantive ?s & broadsides in this
Nate Silver post. Its coda does pose a dilemma for academics.
I agree social media has been bad for public perceptions of academics. What posts go viral? Those of interest outside academia.
www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-...
1/
Nate Silver post. Its coda does pose a dilemma for academics.
I agree social media has been bad for public perceptions of academics. What posts go viral? Those of interest outside academia.
www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-...
1/
August 21, 2025 at 12:48 PM
I'm going to sidestep the substantive ?s & broadsides in this
Nate Silver post. Its coda does pose a dilemma for academics.
I agree social media has been bad for public perceptions of academics. What posts go viral? Those of interest outside academia.
www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-...
1/
Nate Silver post. Its coda does pose a dilemma for academics.
I agree social media has been bad for public perceptions of academics. What posts go viral? Those of interest outside academia.
www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-...
1/
Reposted by Dan Hopkins
Grateful to have been quoted in this @perrybaconjr.bsky.social piece in the @postopinions.bsky.social on the politics of Medicaid cuts:
img.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
img.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
July 12, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Grateful to have been quoted in this @perrybaconjr.bsky.social piece in the @postopinions.bsky.social on the politics of Medicaid cuts:
img.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
img.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...