David Keller, CMT
@dkellercmt.bsky.social
Market Behaviorist | President @ Sierra Alpha Research | Host @ Market Misbehavior podcast | CNBC Contributor | Former StockCharts, Fidelity, Bloomberg | For educational purposes only.
Another solid rebound day into Thanksgiving week. On today’s CHART THIS I break down the S&P’s drift higher, the post-NVDA setup, and what early December may have in store.
Watch here: youtu.be/VIExJ4VF-Hc
Watch here: youtu.be/VIExJ4VF-Hc
Stocks Drift Higher Into Thanksgiving | Can the S&P Hold Its Rebound? | CHART THIS 11/25/25
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
November 25, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Another solid rebound day into Thanksgiving week. On today’s CHART THIS I break down the S&P’s drift higher, the post-NVDA setup, and what early December may have in store.
Watch here: youtu.be/VIExJ4VF-Hc
Watch here: youtu.be/VIExJ4VF-Hc
Question of the Day:
How bearish do I want to be when $AAPL is making new all-time highs?
How bearish do I want to be when $AAPL is making new all-time highs?
November 25, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Question of the Day:
How bearish do I want to be when $AAPL is making new all-time highs?
How bearish do I want to be when $AAPL is making new all-time highs?
For now, $GLD rallying off support at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Momentum readings have remained in the bullish range (above 40) for basically all of 2025! Currently testing trendline resistance from Oct-Nov highs...
November 25, 2025 at 7:06 PM
For now, $GLD rallying off support at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Momentum readings have remained in the bullish range (above 40) for basically all of 2025! Currently testing trendline resistance from Oct-Nov highs...
$QQQ Bullish Percent Index $BPNDX could be a crucial chart to watch. Tagged the 30% level last week, similar March 2025 also August 2024. The former ended up being a short-lived rally, the latter was followed by upside acceleration. Will the BPI get above 70%?
November 25, 2025 at 5:48 PM
$QQQ Bullish Percent Index $BPNDX could be a crucial chart to watch. Tagged the 30% level last week, similar March 2025 also August 2024. The former ended up being a short-lived rally, the latter was followed by upside acceleration. Will the BPI get above 70%?
Strong start to Thanksgiving week with a sharp Monday rally. Is the tone shifting or is this just a reaction bounce? Digging into the charts in today’s CHART THIS. youtu.be/-HalcoCTfgc
Big Monday Rebound: Is This Rally for Real? | CHART THIS 11/24/25
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
November 24, 2025 at 10:45 PM
Strong start to Thanksgiving week with a sharp Monday rally. Is the tone shifting or is this just a reaction bounce? Digging into the charts in today’s CHART THIS. youtu.be/-HalcoCTfgc
Friday bounce after a volatile week — but is the market stabilizing or just catching its breath? Today’s CHART THIS looks at what the recovery really means heading into Thanksgiving week.
youtu.be/RLn5i1MpXzA
youtu.be/RLn5i1MpXzA
Market Rebounds… But Can It Last? Key Signals After Nvidia’s Drop | CHART THIS
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
November 21, 2025 at 10:45 PM
Friday bounce after a volatile week — but is the market stabilizing or just catching its breath? Today’s CHART THIS looks at what the recovery really means heading into Thanksgiving week.
youtu.be/RLn5i1MpXzA
youtu.be/RLn5i1MpXzA
Options educator Alan Ellman walks through a real cash-secured put trade — how he screens stocks, sets deep OTM strikes for protection, and manages risk in a shaky market.
Watch here: youtu.be/r3Tye9OMbBo
Watch here: youtu.be/r3Tye9OMbBo
Alan Ellman on Cash-Secured Puts: Generating Income with Options in Volatile Markets
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
November 21, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Options educator Alan Ellman walks through a real cash-secured put trade — how he screens stocks, sets deep OTM strikes for protection, and manages risk in a shaky market.
Watch here: youtu.be/r3Tye9OMbBo
Watch here: youtu.be/r3Tye9OMbBo
$SPX is actively testing our "line in the sand" of 6550. Bounce higher after Thursday's drop is a reasonable expectation. But will that support hold into next week?.....
November 21, 2025 at 6:04 PM
$SPX is actively testing our "line in the sand" of 6550. Bounce higher after Thursday's drop is a reasonable expectation. But will that support hold into next week?.....
It turns out "Just go all in on $JNJ" was a pretty solid investment plan since the end of June!
November 21, 2025 at 5:16 PM
It turns out "Just go all in on $JNJ" was a pretty solid investment plan since the end of June!
$NVDA gaps higher on great earnings… then immediately gives it back. That is not a bullish tell. Breaking down today’s shift toward risk-off behavior on CHART THIS.
youtu.be/yjRcvJxbwfM
youtu.be/yjRcvJxbwfM
Nvidia Pops… Then Drops: What Today’s Reversal Really Tells Us | CHART THIS
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
November 20, 2025 at 10:47 PM
$NVDA gaps higher on great earnings… then immediately gives it back. That is not a bullish tell. Breaking down today’s shift toward risk-off behavior on CHART THIS.
youtu.be/yjRcvJxbwfM
youtu.be/yjRcvJxbwfM
Top performing Dow industry groups 1-month:
1. Marine transportation $TK $KEX $DHT
2. Drug retailers $CVS $COR $MCK
3. Pharmaceuticals $LLY $JNJ $MRK
1. Marine transportation $TK $KEX $DHT
2. Drug retailers $CVS $COR $MCK
3. Pharmaceuticals $LLY $JNJ $MRK
November 20, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Top performing Dow industry groups 1-month:
1. Marine transportation $TK $KEX $DHT
2. Drug retailers $CVS $COR $MCK
3. Pharmaceuticals $LLY $JNJ $MRK
1. Marine transportation $TK $KEX $DHT
2. Drug retailers $CVS $COR $MCK
3. Pharmaceuticals $LLY $JNJ $MRK
Forward returns for $SPX after the $VIX reaches 30 or 40 is probably pretty good, especially the farther out you look. But that doesn't mean I have to close my eyes, plug my nose, and ride a downtrend until the $VIX finally achieves its peak for the cycle.
November 20, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Forward returns for $SPX after the $VIX reaches 30 or 40 is probably pretty good, especially the farther out you look. But that doesn't mean I have to close my eyes, plug my nose, and ride a downtrend until the $VIX finally achieves its peak for the cycle.
I would say the worst case scenario from a technical perspective would be $NVDA gapping higher post-earnings and that gap is sold aggressively.
November 20, 2025 at 6:22 PM
I would say the worst case scenario from a technical perspective would be $NVDA gapping higher post-earnings and that gap is sold aggressively.
Big shifts happening under the surface 👀
Dave Keller highlights 3 charts pointing toward a risk-off turn in the markets — plus the one S&P 500 level he’s watching.
Full episode here:
Dave Keller highlights 3 charts pointing toward a risk-off turn in the markets — plus the one S&P 500 level he’s watching.
Full episode here:
3 Major Breakdown Signals - Is a Market Top Forming?
David Keller, CMT uses the modern Dow Theory, sector rotation, and Bitcoin’s decline to illustrate what might be a developing market top. With StockCharts’ tools, Dave tracks weakening momentum,…
youtu.be
November 20, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Big shifts happening under the surface 👀
Dave Keller highlights 3 charts pointing toward a risk-off turn in the markets — plus the one S&P 500 level he’s watching.
Full episode here:
Dave Keller highlights 3 charts pointing toward a risk-off turn in the markets — plus the one S&P 500 level he’s watching.
Full episode here:
Choppy session as everyone waits for Nvidia earnings. After hours move looks strong so far, but the details matter. I break down sector rotation, key levels, and what to watch next in today’s CHART THIS. Watch: youtu.be/ViviHlJAQrA
Big Move in Nvidia: Can This Save the Market Rally? | CHART THIS 11/19/25
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
November 19, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Choppy session as everyone waits for Nvidia earnings. After hours move looks strong so far, but the details matter. I break down sector rotation, key levels, and what to watch next in today’s CHART THIS. Watch: youtu.be/ViviHlJAQrA
Back from a quick New York trip! Mega cap growth is starting to roll over, from Meta’s breakdown to a possible double top in Microsoft, and breadth and momentum have been weakening for weeks. I connect the dots and talk risk management on today’s CHART THIS. Watch here: youtu.be/2Vs6AcZMR_Y
When Mega Caps Crack: Is This the Top? | CHART THIS (Nov 18, 2025)
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
November 18, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Back from a quick New York trip! Mega cap growth is starting to roll over, from Meta’s breakdown to a possible double top in Microsoft, and breadth and momentum have been weakening for weeks. I connect the dots and talk risk management on today’s CHART THIS. Watch here: youtu.be/2Vs6AcZMR_Y
Hey folks! Traveling back home to Seattle after a successful college tour with my daughter. No show on Monday but we'll be back and better than ever on Tuesday 11/18. In the meantime, remember: "It's always a good time to own good charts!"
November 17, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Hey folks! Traveling back home to Seattle after a successful college tour with my daughter. No show on Monday but we'll be back and better than ever on Tuesday 11/18. In the meantime, remember: "It's always a good time to own good charts!"
#AAII survey getting dangerously close to some bearish values here. We're at 49% bears and anything over 50%, along with a spread of 20% bears over bulls, would put the AAII survey into a similar configuration to Feb 2025, Jan 2022...
November 14, 2025 at 3:06 PM
#AAII survey getting dangerously close to some bearish values here. We're at 49% bears and anything over 50%, along with a spread of 20% bears over bulls, would put the AAII survey into a similar configuration to Feb 2025, Jan 2022...
Percent of $SPX stocks above their 50-day moving average still trending steadily lower. I'd be way more bullish if there would stop being a clear disagreement between market trend and breadth conditions!
November 14, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Percent of $SPX stocks above their 50-day moving average still trending steadily lower. I'd be way more bullish if there would stop being a clear disagreement between market trend and breadth conditions!
$SPX has been following a classic uptrend channel since June. Thursday's close outside the lower channel line means a follow-through day would confirm a downside break. $SPX 6550 remains our "line in the sand" and a failure there would be #probablynotbullish
November 14, 2025 at 1:06 PM
$SPX has been following a classic uptrend channel since June. Thursday's close outside the lower channel line means a follow-through day would confirm a downside break. $SPX 6550 remains our "line in the sand" and a failure there would be #probablynotbullish
Big risk-off day: S&P down 1.7%, Nasdaq down more than 2%. VIX near 20, semis weak, energy firmer, breadth deteriorates. I walk through support levels, offense vs defense, and what data could move the tape next. Watch: youtu.be/uXrjlDrwmTg
Risk-Off Wave: Tech Slides, Semis Hit, VIX at 20 | CHART THIS (Nov 12, 2025)
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
November 13, 2025 at 11:42 PM
Big risk-off day: S&P down 1.7%, Nasdaq down more than 2%. VIX near 20, semis weak, energy firmer, breadth deteriorates. I walk through support levels, offense vs defense, and what data could move the tape next. Watch: youtu.be/uXrjlDrwmTg
Market at highs, breadth lagging—what then?
Two-time Dow Award winner Andrew Thrasher joins me to discuss volatility “tsunamis,” the 5% canary, and the routines that keep us aligned with trend (not headlines).
Watch: youtu.be/dKWPQHpSBf0
#Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #Breadth
Two-time Dow Award winner Andrew Thrasher joins me to discuss volatility “tsunamis,” the 5% canary, and the routines that keep us aligned with trend (not headlines).
Watch: youtu.be/dKWPQHpSBf0
#Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #Breadth
Andrew Thrasher on Market Breadth, Volatility “Tsunamis,” and Risk: Building a Process That Works
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
November 13, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Market at highs, breadth lagging—what then?
Two-time Dow Award winner Andrew Thrasher joins me to discuss volatility “tsunamis,” the 5% canary, and the routines that keep us aligned with trend (not headlines).
Watch: youtu.be/dKWPQHpSBf0
#Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #Breadth
Two-time Dow Award winner Andrew Thrasher joins me to discuss volatility “tsunamis,” the 5% canary, and the routines that keep us aligned with trend (not headlines).
Watch: youtu.be/dKWPQHpSBf0
#Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #Breadth