David Keller, CMT
@dkellercmt.bsky.social
Host @ Market Misbehavior | President @ Sierra Alpha Research | Former StockCharts-Fidelity-Bloomberg | 🎺 Musician 🎶 | Trying not to take life too seriously 🤪 | For educational purposes only.
Defensive sectors are leading in February, the VIX is holding above 20, and my short-term trend model turned bearish again. In today’s CHART THIS mailbag, I cover earnings strategy (MAR), Bitcoin correlation, and trading discipline.
youtu.be/sJDwa7R6zFQ
youtu.be/sJDwa7R6zFQ
Defensive Rotation Continues as Trend Model Turns Bearish | CHART THIS Mailbag
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
February 13, 2026 at 11:10 PM
Defensive sectors are leading in February, the VIX is holding above 20, and my short-term trend model turned bearish again. In today’s CHART THIS mailbag, I cover earnings strategy (MAR), Bitcoin correlation, and trading discipline.
youtu.be/sJDwa7R6zFQ
youtu.be/sJDwa7R6zFQ
Risk-off day today. Apple -5%, Cisco -12%, VIX back above 20, and defensive sectors leading. I break down S&P support levels, breadth deterioration, and what would confirm a deeper pullback. Full recap here: youtu.be/X4jM2fi0dY0
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February 12, 2026 at 10:15 PM
Risk-off day today. Apple -5%, Cisco -12%, VIX back above 20, and defensive sectors leading. I break down S&P support levels, breadth deterioration, and what would confirm a deeper pullback. Full recap here: youtu.be/X4jM2fi0dY0
U.S. indices are stuck in the mud, but I’m seeing a massive move into Staples and Energy. 📊 I'm breaking down the Shooting Star candle in Apple, the breakdown in Alphabet, and why international markets are decisively outperforming the S&P 500 right now. 🏠🌍
Full update here → youtu.be/NptcK-RA_eE
Full update here → youtu.be/NptcK-RA_eE
CHART THIS with Dave Keller | The SPX Stall and Why Global Markets Are Shifting
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
February 11, 2026 at 11:13 PM
U.S. indices are stuck in the mud, but I’m seeing a massive move into Staples and Energy. 📊 I'm breaking down the Shooting Star candle in Apple, the breakdown in Alphabet, and why international markets are decisively outperforming the S&P 500 right now. 🏠🌍
Full update here → youtu.be/NptcK-RA_eE
Full update here → youtu.be/NptcK-RA_eE
Markets moved higher Monday, but leadership remains selective. In today’s CHART THIS, Dave Keller breaks down tech strength, sector rotation, commodities, crypto, and why the S&P 500 is still stuck below 7000.
youtu.be/AH6pHK-vstU
youtu.be/AH6pHK-vstU
S&P 500 Near 7,000: Growth Bounce, Gold Surge, and Airline Breakouts | CHART THIS
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
February 10, 2026 at 11:03 PM
Markets moved higher Monday, but leadership remains selective. In today’s CHART THIS, Dave Keller breaks down tech strength, sector rotation, commodities, crypto, and why the S&P 500 is still stuck below 7000.
youtu.be/AH6pHK-vstU
youtu.be/AH6pHK-vstU
$AMZN is holding steady after the gap frenzy last week. A rally back to the 200-day moving average would make sense for the bulls and the bears, but that feels more like a "trade" to me. The real question is what happens after the 200-day is reached?
February 10, 2026 at 6:05 PM
$AMZN is holding steady after the gap frenzy last week. A rally back to the 200-day moving average would make sense for the bulls and the bears, but that feels more like a "trade" to me. The real question is what happens after the 200-day is reached?
Can't help but notice $COIN is bouncing off major league support around $145, lining up well with the Sep '24 and Mar '25 lows. Previous lows have been confirmed with a bullish crossover from weekly PPO. But dang that looks tempting.....
February 10, 2026 at 5:07 PM
Can't help but notice $COIN is bouncing off major league support around $145, lining up well with the Sep '24 and Mar '25 lows. Previous lows have been confirmed with a bullish crossover from weekly PPO. But dang that looks tempting.....
#Bitcoin is a tough chart right about now. Potential V-bottom, but the momentum remains incredibly weak. Has lost over 50% of its value since Oct 2025 peak, but the chart remains in a primary downtrend of lower highs and lower lows.
I'm inclined to patiently wait for signs of accumulation. You?
I'm inclined to patiently wait for signs of accumulation. You?
February 10, 2026 at 4:24 PM
#Bitcoin is a tough chart right about now. Potential V-bottom, but the momentum remains incredibly weak. Has lost over 50% of its value since Oct 2025 peak, but the chart remains in a primary downtrend of lower highs and lower lows.
I'm inclined to patiently wait for signs of accumulation. You?
I'm inclined to patiently wait for signs of accumulation. You?
Markets moved higher Monday, but the real story was rotation. Tech rebounded, gold and silver surged, and airlines quietly broke out.
On today’s CHART THIS, I break down #$SPX near 7000, #$NVDA at resistance, and why select airlines are improving.
CHART THIS → youtu.be/AH6pHK-vstU
On today’s CHART THIS, I break down #$SPX near 7000, #$NVDA at resistance, and why select airlines are improving.
CHART THIS → youtu.be/AH6pHK-vstU
S&P 500 Near 7,000: Growth Bounce, Gold Surge, and Airline Breakouts | CHART THIS
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
February 9, 2026 at 11:23 PM
Markets moved higher Monday, but the real story was rotation. Tech rebounded, gold and silver surged, and airlines quietly broke out.
On today’s CHART THIS, I break down #$SPX near 7000, #$NVDA at resistance, and why select airlines are improving.
CHART THIS → youtu.be/AH6pHK-vstU
On today’s CHART THIS, I break down #$SPX near 7000, #$NVDA at resistance, and why select airlines are improving.
CHART THIS → youtu.be/AH6pHK-vstU
Friday’s rally forces an important question: dead cat bounce or real recovery?
Tech surged, breadth flipped positive, volatility dropped, and Bitcoin reversed sharply. The real signal will come from follow-through next week.
Full Chart This episode here:
youtu.be/jCpQd-t5TNg
Tech surged, breadth flipped positive, volatility dropped, and Bitcoin reversed sharply. The real signal will come from follow-through next week.
Full Chart This episode here:
youtu.be/jCpQd-t5TNg
Dead Cat Bounce Debate: S&P 500 Rebounds, Tech Surges, Bitcoin Reverses
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
February 6, 2026 at 10:05 PM
Friday’s rally forces an important question: dead cat bounce or real recovery?
Tech surged, breadth flipped positive, volatility dropped, and Bitcoin reversed sharply. The real signal will come from follow-through next week.
Full Chart This episode here:
youtu.be/jCpQd-t5TNg
Tech surged, breadth flipped positive, volatility dropped, and Bitcoin reversed sharply. The real signal will come from follow-through next week.
Full Chart This episode here:
youtu.be/jCpQd-t5TNg
Bringing back my “Choose Your Own Adventure” format—this time on the S&P 500.
I lay out 4 realistic paths for the next 6–8 weeks (from ~7400 upside to ~6200–6300 downside). The point isn’t prediction—it’s preparation.
Watch the vid and then vote on your fav!
youtu.be/9XURezUNqeE
I lay out 4 realistic paths for the next 6–8 weeks (from ~7400 upside to ~6200–6300 downside). The point isn’t prediction—it’s preparation.
Watch the vid and then vote on your fav!
youtu.be/9XURezUNqeE
S&P 500: Choose Your Own Adventure (4 Scenarios for the Next 6–8 Weeks)
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
February 5, 2026 at 2:41 PM
Bringing back my “Choose Your Own Adventure” format—this time on the S&P 500.
I lay out 4 realistic paths for the next 6–8 weeks (from ~7400 upside to ~6200–6300 downside). The point isn’t prediction—it’s preparation.
Watch the vid and then vote on your fav!
youtu.be/9XURezUNqeE
I lay out 4 realistic paths for the next 6–8 weeks (from ~7400 upside to ~6200–6300 downside). The point isn’t prediction—it’s preparation.
Watch the vid and then vote on your fav!
youtu.be/9XURezUNqeE
Growth continued to struggle as semiconductors weakened and AMD broke down hard. But beneath the surface, breadth pushed to new highs and value sectors led again. A market of rotation, not collapse.
CHART THIS -> youtu.be/W7sWAgZqlww
CHART THIS -> youtu.be/W7sWAgZqlww
Growth Breaks Down as Breadth Improves: What This Rotation Is Really Saying | CHART THIS
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
February 5, 2026 at 12:01 AM
Growth continued to struggle as semiconductors weakened and AMD broke down hard. But beneath the surface, breadth pushed to new highs and value sectors led again. A market of rotation, not collapse.
CHART THIS -> youtu.be/W7sWAgZqlww
CHART THIS -> youtu.be/W7sWAgZqlww
S&P 500 prints a bearish engulfing/outside day near 7,000 as growth weakens (MSFT, META gap-and-fail, AVGO near 320). Value/defense led: energy, materials, staples. VIX keeps teasing 20. youtu.be/U_mg7Iam30s
Risk-Off Tuesday: VIX Teases 20, Bitcoin Slides, and Value Sectors Take the Lead
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
February 3, 2026 at 10:09 PM
S&P 500 prints a bearish engulfing/outside day near 7,000 as growth weakens (MSFT, META gap-and-fail, AVGO near 320). Value/defense led: energy, materials, staples. VIX keeps teasing 20. youtu.be/U_mg7Iam30s
S&P 500 up to start the week but still below 7,000. Commodities broke down, the dollar reversed higher, and crypto is testing major support. Also watching NVDA ~175 and a Hindenburg Omen confirmation window.
CHART THIS -> youtu.be/NV3PSrrh2JE
CHART THIS -> youtu.be/NV3PSrrh2JE
S&P Near 7,000, Dow Near 50,000: Breadth, NVDA, and a Hindenburg Omen Watch
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
February 2, 2026 at 10:40 PM
S&P 500 up to start the week but still below 7,000. Commodities broke down, the dollar reversed higher, and crypto is testing major support. Also watching NVDA ~175 and a Hindenburg Omen confirmation window.
CHART THIS -> youtu.be/NV3PSrrh2JE
CHART THIS -> youtu.be/NV3PSrrh2JE
Earnings gaps, market breadth, and rotation in early 2026. Great conversation with John Kolovos on why zooming out matters, how to read breakaway gaps, and what gold, small caps, and the dollar are signaling now.
When in Doubt, Zoom Out: John Kolovos on Navigating Earnings, Market Breadth & Rotation
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, I’m joined by John Kolovos, CFA CMT, Chief Technical Strategist at Macro Risk Advisors and current President of the CMT Association. Recorded…
www.youtube.com
January 31, 2026 at 2:04 PM
Earnings gaps, market breadth, and rotation in early 2026. Great conversation with John Kolovos on why zooming out matters, how to read breakaway gaps, and what gold, small caps, and the dollar are signaling now.
Thanks Grayson Roze for a great conversation covering the top ten charts to watch in February. From slow and steady gainers like $RTX and $WMT, to emerging value leaders like $STLD, we covered lots of ground! Still can't believe you picked a COVID era name... 📈
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CKw...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CKw...
January 31, 2026 at 1:06 PM
Thanks Grayson Roze for a great conversation covering the top ten charts to watch in February. From slow and steady gainers like $RTX and $WMT, to emerging value leaders like $STLD, we covered lots of ground! Still can't believe you picked a COVID era name... 📈
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CKw...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CKw...
A wild V-shaped session today near 7,000. Early weakness tied to AI and #$MSFT earnings gave way to aggressive buying, but market breadth and volatility are flashing mixed signals.
Full breakdown on CHART THIS → youtu.be/Hg0bwEvy6lI
Full breakdown on CHART THIS → youtu.be/Hg0bwEvy6lI
A Violent Reversal Day and the Market Signals You Don’t Want to Ignore
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
January 29, 2026 at 10:42 PM
A wild V-shaped session today near 7,000. Early weakness tied to AI and #$MSFT earnings gave way to aggressive buying, but market breadth and volatility are flashing mixed signals.
Full breakdown on CHART THIS → youtu.be/Hg0bwEvy6lI
Full breakdown on CHART THIS → youtu.be/Hg0bwEvy6lI
How close is the Fed really to cutting again? Simeon Hyman (ProShares) breaks down rates, the dollar, gold, crypto, and why this market looks nothing like 1999. A thoughtful macro conversation for 2026.
youtu.be/-8iTWZ5zKTc
youtu.be/-8iTWZ5zKTc
Simeon Hyman (ProShares): The Fed’s “Last Mile,” the Dollar, and Diversification
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
January 29, 2026 at 9:08 PM
How close is the Fed really to cutting again? Simeon Hyman (ProShares) breaks down rates, the dollar, gold, crypto, and why this market looks nothing like 1999. A thoughtful macro conversation for 2026.
youtu.be/-8iTWZ5zKTc
youtu.be/-8iTWZ5zKTc
The S&P briefly cleared 7000 on Fed Day, but couldn’t hold it. Earnings are driving big moves as breadth weakens and commodities continue to lead.
Full chart breakdown here:
youtu.be/MK60NIFdT-c
Full chart breakdown here:
youtu.be/MK60NIFdT-c
S&P 500 Tests 7000 as Earnings Season Exposes Tech vs Market Gap | CHART THIS
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
January 28, 2026 at 11:08 PM
The S&P briefly cleared 7000 on Fed Day, but couldn’t hold it. Earnings are driving big moves as breadth weakens and commodities continue to lead.
Full chart breakdown here:
youtu.be/MK60NIFdT-c
Full chart breakdown here:
youtu.be/MK60NIFdT-c
Markets are holding firm near SPX 7000 as Fed week begins. Silver continues to surge, the dollar weakens, and leadership keeps rotating.
My full breakdown on today’s CHART THIS:
youtu.be/bQ66oP0BqBs
My full breakdown on today’s CHART THIS:
youtu.be/bQ66oP0BqBs
The SPX 7000 Question | Fed Week, Silver Surge, and What Charts Reveal | CHART THIS 1/26/26
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
January 26, 2026 at 10:50 PM
Markets are holding firm near SPX 7000 as Fed week begins. Silver continues to surge, the dollar weakens, and leadership keeps rotating.
My full breakdown on today’s CHART THIS:
youtu.be/bQ66oP0BqBs
My full breakdown on today’s CHART THIS:
youtu.be/bQ66oP0BqBs
A sideways market, low volatility, and lots of great viewer questions.
From analyzing indexes vs stocks to Starbucks, Palantir, and sector leadership — this week’s mailbag covers it all.
CHART THIS → youtu.be/b6MHb6GaZdU
From analyzing indexes vs stocks to Starbucks, Palantir, and sector leadership — this week’s mailbag covers it all.
CHART THIS → youtu.be/b6MHb6GaZdU
Choppy Markets, Big Questions: Charting Indexes, Stocks & Market Leadership
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
January 23, 2026 at 11:18 PM
A sideways market, low volatility, and lots of great viewer questions.
From analyzing indexes vs stocks to Starbucks, Palantir, and sector leadership — this week’s mailbag covers it all.
CHART THIS → youtu.be/b6MHb6GaZdU
From analyzing indexes vs stocks to Starbucks, Palantir, and sector leadership — this week’s mailbag covers it all.
CHART THIS → youtu.be/b6MHb6GaZdU
“Invest well over the long term—first survive the short term.”
Ted Hicks joins me to talk evidence-based decision-making, managing risk through different market regimes, and why a process matters more than predictions.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7n62...
Ted Hicks joins me to talk evidence-based decision-making, managing risk through different market regimes, and why a process matters more than predictions.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7n62...
Diversification Can Fail When You Need It Most | Ted Hicks (Evidence-Based Investing)
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
www.youtube.com
January 23, 2026 at 6:21 PM
“Invest well over the long term—first survive the short term.”
Ted Hicks joins me to talk evidence-based decision-making, managing risk through different market regimes, and why a process matters more than predictions.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7n62...
Ted Hicks joins me to talk evidence-based decision-making, managing risk through different market regimes, and why a process matters more than predictions.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7n62...
A choppy session, but markets held important support levels. Earnings reactions, fading volatility, and early leadership signals are all in focus.
CHART THIS →
youtu.be/iDWRntOELck
CHART THIS →
youtu.be/iDWRntOELck
Markets Hold Key Support as Earnings Drive Rotation | Intel Drops After Hours | CHART THIS
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
January 22, 2026 at 11:05 PM
A choppy session, but markets held important support levels. Earnings reactions, fading volatility, and early leadership signals are all in focus.
CHART THIS →
youtu.be/iDWRntOELck
CHART THIS →
youtu.be/iDWRntOELck
Indexes look fine, but momentum tells a different story.
Joe Rabil explains how ADX, relative strength, and bottom-up analysis help identify emerging leaders early in 2026.
Full episode: www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBvR...
Joe Rabil explains how ADX, relative strength, and bottom-up analysis help identify emerging leaders early in 2026.
Full episode: www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBvR...
Finding Leaders in a Choppy Market: Joe Rabil on ADX, Momentum, and Breadth
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
www.youtube.com
January 22, 2026 at 9:46 PM
Indexes look fine, but momentum tells a different story.
Joe Rabil explains how ADX, relative strength, and bottom-up analysis help identify emerging leaders early in 2026.
Full episode: www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBvR...
Joe Rabil explains how ADX, relative strength, and bottom-up analysis help identify emerging leaders early in 2026.
Full episode: www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBvR...
Markets snapped back today after yesterday’s selloff. Volatility eased, small caps led, and sector rotation stayed very much in focus.
Full breakdown on CHART THIS:
youtu.be/pIswkAUm4Go
Full breakdown on CHART THIS:
youtu.be/pIswkAUm4Go
Markets Rebound After Volatile Headlines | Small Caps Lead the Charge | CHART THIS (Jan 21)
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
January 21, 2026 at 10:39 PM
Markets snapped back today after yesterday’s selloff. Volatility eased, small caps led, and sector rotation stayed very much in focus.
Full breakdown on CHART THIS:
youtu.be/pIswkAUm4Go
Full breakdown on CHART THIS:
youtu.be/pIswkAUm4Go
Markets sold off hard today as volatility returned and money rotated into gold and silver.
Here’s how I’m framing this pullback and the key levels I’m watching on CHART THIS → youtu.be/rFjc0fGz8Nk
Here’s how I’m framing this pullback and the key levels I’m watching on CHART THIS → youtu.be/rFjc0fGz8Nk
Markets Sell Off as Volatility Spikes | Gold & Silver Surge | CHART THIS Jan 20
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
January 20, 2026 at 10:44 PM
Markets sold off hard today as volatility returned and money rotated into gold and silver.
Here’s how I’m framing this pullback and the key levels I’m watching on CHART THIS → youtu.be/rFjc0fGz8Nk
Here’s how I’m framing this pullback and the key levels I’m watching on CHART THIS → youtu.be/rFjc0fGz8Nk