David Keller, CMT
@dkellercmt.bsky.social
Host @ Market Misbehavior | President @ Sierra Alpha Research | Former StockCharts-Fidelity-Bloomberg | 🎺 Musician 🎶 | Trying not to take life too seriously 🤪 | For educational purposes only.
$AMZN is holding steady after the gap frenzy last week. A rally back to the 200-day moving average would make sense for the bulls and the bears, but that feels more like a "trade" to me. The real question is what happens after the 200-day is reached?
February 10, 2026 at 6:05 PM
$AMZN is holding steady after the gap frenzy last week. A rally back to the 200-day moving average would make sense for the bulls and the bears, but that feels more like a "trade" to me. The real question is what happens after the 200-day is reached?
Can't help but notice $COIN is bouncing off major league support around $145, lining up well with the Sep '24 and Mar '25 lows. Previous lows have been confirmed with a bullish crossover from weekly PPO. But dang that looks tempting.....
February 10, 2026 at 5:07 PM
Can't help but notice $COIN is bouncing off major league support around $145, lining up well with the Sep '24 and Mar '25 lows. Previous lows have been confirmed with a bullish crossover from weekly PPO. But dang that looks tempting.....
#Bitcoin is a tough chart right about now. Potential V-bottom, but the momentum remains incredibly weak. Has lost over 50% of its value since Oct 2025 peak, but the chart remains in a primary downtrend of lower highs and lower lows.
I'm inclined to patiently wait for signs of accumulation. You?
I'm inclined to patiently wait for signs of accumulation. You?
February 10, 2026 at 4:24 PM
#Bitcoin is a tough chart right about now. Potential V-bottom, but the momentum remains incredibly weak. Has lost over 50% of its value since Oct 2025 peak, but the chart remains in a primary downtrend of lower highs and lower lows.
I'm inclined to patiently wait for signs of accumulation. You?
I'm inclined to patiently wait for signs of accumulation. You?
Thanks Grayson Roze for a great conversation covering the top ten charts to watch in February. From slow and steady gainers like $RTX and $WMT, to emerging value leaders like $STLD, we covered lots of ground! Still can't believe you picked a COVID era name... 📈
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CKw...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CKw...
January 31, 2026 at 1:06 PM
Thanks Grayson Roze for a great conversation covering the top ten charts to watch in February. From slow and steady gainers like $RTX and $WMT, to emerging value leaders like $STLD, we covered lots of ground! Still can't believe you picked a COVID era name... 📈
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CKw...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CKw...
Transports $IYT are showing new signs of life, and that's enough to trigger a classic Dow Theory buy signal going into this week. While I favor a modernized version of Dow Theory using $SPY and $QQQ, the strength in transports represents a strong bullish surge in a sleepy underperforming group.
January 13, 2026 at 5:06 PM
Transports $IYT are showing new signs of life, and that's enough to trigger a classic Dow Theory buy signal going into this week. While I favor a modernized version of Dow Theory using $SPY and $QQQ, the strength in transports represents a strong bullish surge in a sleepy underperforming group.
🚨 NEWS FLASH 🚨
Over the last eight weeks, small caps $IWM have been outperforming large caps $SPX.
IT'S FULL-ON MARKET MAYHEM! 📈
Over the last eight weeks, small caps $IWM have been outperforming large caps $SPX.
IT'S FULL-ON MARKET MAYHEM! 📈
January 13, 2026 at 4:04 PM
🚨 NEWS FLASH 🚨
Over the last eight weeks, small caps $IWM have been outperforming large caps $SPX.
IT'S FULL-ON MARKET MAYHEM! 📈
Over the last eight weeks, small caps $IWM have been outperforming large caps $SPX.
IT'S FULL-ON MARKET MAYHEM! 📈
Sat next to Jay Woods last week at the CMT Association Midwinter Retreat. At one point he showed me his laptop and asked, "Have you seen homebuilders?!?" That gap higher has continued into this week, representing renewed optimism in what has been a frustrating group! 📈
January 13, 2026 at 3:47 PM
Sat next to Jay Woods last week at the CMT Association Midwinter Retreat. At one point he showed me his laptop and asked, "Have you seen homebuilders?!?" That gap higher has continued into this week, representing renewed optimism in what has been a frustrating group! 📈
Happy New Year from Market Misbehavior! Our Grammy and BAFTA award winning daily market recap show, CHART THIS with Dave Keller, is back and better than ever! Follow our YouTube channel for each episode this week. marketmisbehavior.com/chartthis
January 5, 2026 at 4:54 PM
Happy New Year from Market Misbehavior! Our Grammy and BAFTA award winning daily market recap show, CHART THIS with Dave Keller, is back and better than ever! Follow our YouTube channel for each episode this week. marketmisbehavior.com/chartthis
Definitely not toppy. $QQQ
December 14, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Definitely not toppy. $QQQ
$META over 680 could be a pretty decent chart, as that would represent a new swing high as well as a break above moving average and Fibonacci resistance. But it needs to get above 680 first!
December 10, 2025 at 6:04 PM
$META over 680 could be a pretty decent chart, as that would represent a new swing high as well as a break above moving average and Fibonacci resistance. But it needs to get above 680 first!
Future textbooks on technical analysis may feature this chart of silver $SLV. Symmetrical triangle or "coil" pattern after a big run higher into October. Pattern resolves to the upside, indicating a new accumulation phase with stronger momentum. #breakoutsarebullish
December 10, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Future textbooks on technical analysis may feature this chart of silver $SLV. Symmetrical triangle or "coil" pattern after a big run higher into October. Pattern resolves to the upside, indicating a new accumulation phase with stronger momentum. #breakoutsarebullish
Literally a coin flip right now as to whether an $SPX stock is above its 50-day moving average. McClellan Oscillator is hanging just above the zero line, and both indicators suggest short-term breadth still ok... but very close to being not-really-ok.
December 10, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Literally a coin flip right now as to whether an $SPX stock is above its 50-day moving average. McClellan Oscillator is hanging just above the zero line, and both indicators suggest short-term breadth still ok... but very close to being not-really-ok.
Why are moving averages a part of our process? Because they remove noise and define the direction of the trend.
Why are Fibonacci retracements part of our process? Because they help provide structure for risk/reward assessments.
See $META for a current example of combining these two approaches!
Why are Fibonacci retracements part of our process? Because they help provide structure for risk/reward assessments.
See $META for a current example of combining these two approaches!
December 10, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Why are moving averages a part of our process? Because they remove noise and define the direction of the trend.
Why are Fibonacci retracements part of our process? Because they help provide structure for risk/reward assessments.
See $META for a current example of combining these two approaches!
Why are Fibonacci retracements part of our process? Because they help provide structure for risk/reward assessments.
See $META for a current example of combining these two approaches!
Salesforce $CRM finally pushing above the 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025. With RSI pushing above the important 60 level, and price finally breaking above moving average resistance, $CRM could be setting up for a new accumulation phase. See September 2024...
December 9, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Salesforce $CRM finally pushing above the 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025. With RSI pushing above the important 60 level, and price finally breaking above moving average resistance, $CRM could be setting up for a new accumulation phase. See September 2024...
Noting a confirmed head and shoulders top for bond prices $TLT, suggesting higher rates $TNX going into the last Fed meeting of 2025.
December 9, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Noting a confirmed head and shoulders top for bond prices $TLT, suggesting higher rates $TNX going into the last Fed meeting of 2025.
Last Friday, the equity-only put call ratio hit its lowest level since May. Spikes lower in this sentiment gauge have usually led to $SPX weakness over the next 3-5 sessions.
December 9, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Last Friday, the equity-only put call ratio hit its lowest level since May. Spikes lower in this sentiment gauge have usually led to $SPX weakness over the next 3-5 sessions.
Only 31% of $SPX members have actually outperformed $SPX so far in 2025.
schrts.co/kbccMHtc
Only three $SPX sectors have outperformed the $SPX in 2025 (see attached).
For a "broad advance", there's an uncomfortably large number of stocks that are underperforming!
schrts.co/kbccMHtc
Only three $SPX sectors have outperformed the $SPX in 2025 (see attached).
For a "broad advance", there's an uncomfortably large number of stocks that are underperforming!
December 9, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Only 31% of $SPX members have actually outperformed $SPX so far in 2025.
schrts.co/kbccMHtc
Only three $SPX sectors have outperformed the $SPX in 2025 (see attached).
For a "broad advance", there's an uncomfortably large number of stocks that are underperforming!
schrts.co/kbccMHtc
Only three $SPX sectors have outperformed the $SPX in 2025 (see attached).
For a "broad advance", there's an uncomfortably large number of stocks that are underperforming!
$GM in a clear uptrend phase with higher highs and higher lows. Price sits above two upward-sloping moving averages. Only negative mark here is a bearish momentum divergence, with price moving higher on weaker RSI readings. "The trend is your friend."
December 3, 2025 at 8:04 PM
$GM in a clear uptrend phase with higher highs and higher lows. Price sits above two upward-sloping moving averages. Only negative mark here is a bearish momentum divergence, with price moving higher on weaker RSI readings. "The trend is your friend."
High beta $SPHB outperformed low volatility $SPLV from the April low through the end of October. November saw a dramatic reversal as investors went risk-off. How bearish do I want to be if this ratio keeps trending higher into year end?..... $SPX
December 3, 2025 at 7:06 PM
High beta $SPHB outperformed low volatility $SPLV from the April low through the end of October. November saw a dramatic reversal as investors went risk-off. How bearish do I want to be if this ratio keeps trending higher into year end?..... $SPX
Initial bullish sign for #Bitcoin with a move above "big round number" resistance at 90K. The "all clear" signal back in April involved the RSI pushing above 60, representing a strong bullish momentum thrust. Will we get a similar signal in December?...
December 3, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Initial bullish sign for #Bitcoin with a move above "big round number" resistance at 90K. The "all clear" signal back in April involved the RSI pushing above 60, representing a strong bullish momentum thrust. Will we get a similar signal in December?...
Equity-only put call ratio on Monday spiked down to 0.45 or lower. Has happened five other times since the April market low. In all previous instances, $SPX has been lower over the next week.
December 3, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Equity-only put call ratio on Monday spiked down to 0.45 or lower. Has happened five other times since the April market low. In all previous instances, $SPX has been lower over the next week.
Still patiently waiting for $NVDA to rip higher after that stellar earnings report last week. 🤔
November 27, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Still patiently waiting for $NVDA to rip higher after that stellar earnings report last week. 🤔
Most bullish evidence this week? How about the $VIX dropping back below 20. That suggests milder daily swings for $SPY $QQQ, less fear of a waterfall decline, more confidence that things are going to be just fine.
November 26, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Most bullish evidence this week? How about the $VIX dropping back below 20. That suggests milder daily swings for $SPY $QQQ, less fear of a waterfall decline, more confidence that things are going to be just fine.
No denying the stronger breadth readings this week. Back up to 61% of $SPX names above their 200-day moving averages, and 57% above their 50-day. Not bad!
November 26, 2025 at 7:06 PM
No denying the stronger breadth readings this week. Back up to 61% of $SPX names above their 200-day moving averages, and 57% above their 50-day. Not bad!
$SPX threatening to overtake the trendline based on the Oct-Nov highs. Would expect that to happen given lighter volume up days around a holiday. The real question is whether major equity indexes resume a new uptrend phase after the turkey day hangover!
November 26, 2025 at 6:27 PM
$SPX threatening to overtake the trendline based on the Oct-Nov highs. Would expect that to happen given lighter volume up days around a holiday. The real question is whether major equity indexes resume a new uptrend phase after the turkey day hangover!