Kevork Oskanian
@drkevorko.bsky.social
1.8K followers 980 following 1.7K posts
IR, International (Dis)Order, Eurasian Politics. Lecturer at @uniexeter.bsky.social. Onetime Liberal. Enemy of Pigeonholes. X refugee. Personal views, Repost ≠ 'Like'. Cosmopolitan mutt: roots in 🇦🇲🇬🇷🇩🇪🇱🇧🇧🇪🇬🇧.
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drkevorko.bsky.social
Pleasantly surprised that #Ukraine has withstood the summer offensive rather well; they may yet succeed in holding the line and focusing minds in Moscow on a negotiated ceasefire.

Until then, expect another winter of Russia targeting energy infrastructure and testing NATO.
drkevorko.bsky.social
Too many think tanks have a major groupthink problem.

Perhaps rename them Groupthink Tanks?
drkevorko.bsky.social
'The year is 2040 and Vladimir Putin is appointed governor of Moldova's restive Transniestria region. Along with his peace expertise born from pacifying Ukraine, his tormented soul brings along some baggage'.
drkevorko.bsky.social
Whatever they're smoking in the NYT editorial offices, it must be strong stuff.
drkevorko.bsky.social
Whatever they're smoking in the NYT editorial offices, it must be strong stuff.
drkevorko.bsky.social
Russia isn't preparing to 'attack' NATO.

What it wants is to accentuate Trump's abandonment of the continent which it, in turn, hopes will lead to Europe's abandonment of Ukraine.
drkevorko.bsky.social
No doubt Russia is testing NATO's boundaries, applying pinpricks to probe and irritate.

But it would be surprising if it turned to direct conflict with the alliance before the fighting in Ukraine somehow comes to a halt, even if it were to 'win'. (1/3)
drkevorko.bsky.social
Most middle-class British headline of the year.
drkevorko.bsky.social
Would it not prioritise restoring its influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia before going beyond the 'near abroad'?

That would give NATO's European part time to adapt and bolster deterrence. (3/3)
drkevorko.bsky.social
An issue that is often ignored: Russia's loss of influence in 'its neighbourhood'.

So are, it has shown itself far too engaged in Ukraine to push back at re-alignments by formerly much more cautious post-Soviet states to its South. (2/3)
drkevorko.bsky.social
No doubt Russia is testing NATO's boundaries, applying pinpricks to probe and irritate.

But it would be surprising if it turned to direct conflict with the alliance before the fighting in Ukraine somehow comes to a halt, even if it were to 'win'. (1/3)
drkevorko.bsky.social
Anyone in America think elections in 2026 and 2028 will be played by the book?

Perhaps time to wake up and smell the coffee.
drkevorko.bsky.social
Downright sinister.
atrupar.com
Trump to generals: "Last month, I signed an executive order to provide training for a quick reaction force that can help quell civil disturbances. This is gonna be a big thing for the people in this room, because it's the enemy from within & we have to handle it before it gets out of control"
Reposted by Kevork Oskanian
hegghammer.net
Brits being contrarian (again). Norway has had this for years and I can tell you 1) it simplifies everything from online banking to gov services enormously & 2) it is less of a threat to privacy because data are kept properly in one place instead of in tens of different places with varying security
drkevorko.bsky.social
Don't impose sanctions, and you provide Trump with an excuse to bail out.

(Incidentally, Trump referred to NATO, not the EU, and there is a snowball's chance in hell that Turkey would comply.)

Impose sanctions, and Europe is driven into even greater dependence on the United States.
fbermingham.bsky.social
US NATO Amb Whitaker was asked about Russia sanctions at Atlantic Council this morning - touched on China and Hungary

"There's a lot of other things we can do on a sanctions front, on a shadow fleet front. There are a menu of items that we could do, but we can't do it alone...
drkevorko.bsky.social
Gimmick” is probably the most overused word in British politics nowadays.
drkevorko.bsky.social
The states recognising Palestine should give Netanyahu’s words exactly as much weight as to those of an indicted war criminal.
drkevorko.bsky.social
Starmer has to come up with one - sweeping, ambitious, mobilising - or make way for someone who can.
drkevorko.bsky.social
Few people embody the neoliberal politician’s complete lack of self-awareness as perfectly as Tony Blair.
drkevorko.bsky.social
Starmer:

"Labour made mistakes on immigration".

Voters:

"OK, so we'll vote for the people who didn't make those mistakes".

It's not rocket science.