David Smith
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Economics Editor, The Sunday Times.
Reposted by David Smith
My Times piece: We are promised a cost of living budget, the danger of which is that the government gets locked into expensive price freezes, like the long freeze on fuel duty:
Why the prospect of a cost of living budget makes me feel uneasy
www.thetimes.com/article/d0ca...
Why the prospect of a cost of living budget makes me feel uneasy
www.thetimes.com/article/d0ca...
Why the prospect of a cost of living budget makes me feel uneasy
Price controls can turn into an endless game of Whac-A-Mole if the chancellor is not careful — we need long-term thinking to tackle inflation
www.thetimes.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:37 PM
My Times piece: We are promised a cost of living budget, the danger of which is that the government gets locked into expensive price freezes, like the long freeze on fuel duty:
Why the prospect of a cost of living budget makes me feel uneasy
www.thetimes.com/article/d0ca...
Why the prospect of a cost of living budget makes me feel uneasy
www.thetimes.com/article/d0ca...
My Times piece: We are promised a cost of living budget, the danger of which is that the government gets locked into expensive price freezes, like the long freeze on fuel duty:
Why the prospect of a cost of living budget makes me feel uneasy
www.thetimes.com/article/d0ca...
Why the prospect of a cost of living budget makes me feel uneasy
www.thetimes.com/article/d0ca...
Why the prospect of a cost of living budget makes me feel uneasy
Price controls can turn into an endless game of Whac-A-Mole if the chancellor is not careful — we need long-term thinking to tackle inflation
www.thetimes.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:37 PM
My Times piece: We are promised a cost of living budget, the danger of which is that the government gets locked into expensive price freezes, like the long freeze on fuel duty:
Why the prospect of a cost of living budget makes me feel uneasy
www.thetimes.com/article/d0ca...
Why the prospect of a cost of living budget makes me feel uneasy
www.thetimes.com/article/d0ca...
Congratulations on spectacularly missing the point.
As someone once said memories may vary...Lawson was wrong on Brexit and monetarism, he was a key part of the Treasury team, resulting in recession and reduced UK manufacturing. As Chancellor his tax cuts and deregulation led to inflation, inequality and deregulation continued to the financial crash
November 23, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Congratulations on spectacularly missing the point.
Reposted by David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: I’ve covered very many budgets over the years but the build-up to this one is the most chaotic and destabilising I can remember:
There is no method in this messy pre-budget madness
www.thetimes.com/article/aad8...
There is no method in this messy pre-budget madness
www.thetimes.com/article/aad8...
There is no method in this messy pre-budget madness
It has been five unprecedented months of speculation before Rachel Reeves’s second budget and the pain is being felt. Plus: what you think she should announce
www.thetimes.com
November 22, 2025 at 10:18 PM
My Sunday Times piece: I’ve covered very many budgets over the years but the build-up to this one is the most chaotic and destabilising I can remember:
There is no method in this messy pre-budget madness
www.thetimes.com/article/aad8...
There is no method in this messy pre-budget madness
www.thetimes.com/article/aad8...
My Sunday Times piece: I’ve covered very many budgets over the years but the build-up to this one is the most chaotic and destabilising I can remember:
There is no method in this messy pre-budget madness
www.thetimes.com/article/aad8...
There is no method in this messy pre-budget madness
www.thetimes.com/article/aad8...
There is no method in this messy pre-budget madness
It has been five unprecedented months of speculation before Rachel Reeves’s second budget and the pain is being felt. Plus: what you think she should announce
www.thetimes.com
November 22, 2025 at 10:18 PM
My Sunday Times piece: I’ve covered very many budgets over the years but the build-up to this one is the most chaotic and destabilising I can remember:
There is no method in this messy pre-budget madness
www.thetimes.com/article/aad8...
There is no method in this messy pre-budget madness
www.thetimes.com/article/aad8...
Reposted by David Smith
It is right that there is an independent economic and fiscal watchdog in the form of the OBR to mark the chancellor’s homework. Current arrangements, however, provide the OBR with a task that is near impossible and invites ridicule
(£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
(£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
The UK’s rules are more tightly drawn than those in many other countries and set up a regular tug of war between the OBR and the Treasury before the budget
www.thetimes.com
November 19, 2025 at 11:44 AM
It is right that there is an independent economic and fiscal watchdog in the form of the OBR to mark the chancellor’s homework. Current arrangements, however, provide the OBR with a task that is near impossible and invites ridicule
(£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
(£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Reposted by David Smith
My Times piece: We need an independent fiscal watchdog like the OBR, but asking it to judge whether fiscal rules will be met in five years’ time, and raising taxes if not, is eccentric:
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
www.thetimes.com/article/c797...
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
www.thetimes.com/article/c797...
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
The UK’s rules are more tightly drawn than those in many other countries and set up a regular tug of war between the OBR and the Treasury before the budget
www.thetimes.com
November 18, 2025 at 5:08 PM
My Times piece: We need an independent fiscal watchdog like the OBR, but asking it to judge whether fiscal rules will be met in five years’ time, and raising taxes if not, is eccentric:
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
www.thetimes.com/article/c797...
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
www.thetimes.com/article/c797...
My Times piece: We need an independent fiscal watchdog like the OBR, but asking it to judge whether fiscal rules will be met in five years’ time, and raising taxes if not, is eccentric:
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
www.thetimes.com/article/c797...
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
www.thetimes.com/article/c797...
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
The UK’s rules are more tightly drawn than those in many other countries and set up a regular tug of war between the OBR and the Treasury before the budget
www.thetimes.com
November 18, 2025 at 5:08 PM
My Times piece: We need an independent fiscal watchdog like the OBR, but asking it to judge whether fiscal rules will be met in five years’ time, and raising taxes if not, is eccentric:
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
www.thetimes.com/article/c797...
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
www.thetimes.com/article/c797...
Reposted by David Smith
Things could be worse. Economy battered by higher taxes, budget speculation, US tariffs, delayed effect of higher interest rates, yet OBR will revise up forecast for this year’s growth from 1% predicted in March to nearer to 1.5%
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
As economic gloom descends, it’s time to unleash my inner Tigger
The data for growth and unemployment is disappointing and tax rises are coming in the budget, but interest rate cuts and market credibility may also be in sight
www.thetimes.com
November 16, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Things could be worse. Economy battered by higher taxes, budget speculation, US tariffs, delayed effect of higher interest rates, yet OBR will revise up forecast for this year’s growth from 1% predicted in March to nearer to 1.5%
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
My Sunday Times piece: In which, amid extraordinary budget chaos and disappointing economic news, I look for reasons to be cheerful, or at least not excessively miserable:
As economic gloom descends, it’s time to unleash my inner Tigger
www.thetimes.com/article/d6a2...
As economic gloom descends, it’s time to unleash my inner Tigger
www.thetimes.com/article/d6a2...
As economic gloom descends, it’s time to unleash my inner Tigger
The data for growth and unemployment is disappointing and tax rises are coming in the budget, but interest rate cuts and market credibility may also be in sight
www.thetimes.com
November 15, 2025 at 10:33 PM
My Sunday Times piece: In which, amid extraordinary budget chaos and disappointing economic news, I look for reasons to be cheerful, or at least not excessively miserable:
As economic gloom descends, it’s time to unleash my inner Tigger
www.thetimes.com/article/d6a2...
As economic gloom descends, it’s time to unleash my inner Tigger
www.thetimes.com/article/d6a2...
Reposted by David Smith
My Times piece: Hopes that the job market was stabilising were dashed by the latest official figures, which send a warning to the government not to risk further job-destroying policies:
Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
www.thetimes.com/article/896e...
Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
www.thetimes.com/article/896e...
Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
After disappointing labour market figures and anticipated tax rises, the government’s Employment Rights Bill will only push the country further to the extreme
www.thetimes.com
November 11, 2025 at 5:36 PM
My Times piece: Hopes that the job market was stabilising were dashed by the latest official figures, which send a warning to the government not to risk further job-destroying policies:
Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
www.thetimes.com/article/896e...
Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
www.thetimes.com/article/896e...
My Times piece: Hopes that the job market was stabilising were dashed by the latest official figures, which send a warning to the government not to risk further job-destroying policies:
Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
www.thetimes.com/article/896e...
Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
www.thetimes.com/article/896e...
Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
After disappointing labour market figures and anticipated tax rises, the government’s Employment Rights Bill will only push the country further to the extreme
www.thetimes.com
November 11, 2025 at 5:36 PM
My Times piece: Hopes that the job market was stabilising were dashed by the latest official figures, which send a warning to the government not to risk further job-destroying policies:
Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
www.thetimes.com/article/896e...
Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
www.thetimes.com/article/896e...
Reposted by David Smith
In some ways, the breaking of the taboo on ever raising income tax rates should be welcomed. It would be much better, though, if it were the product of a carefully thought-out tax reform strategy.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Hard to disagree.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Hard to disagree.
How Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
It has been 50 years since the basic rate was raised and it has been untouchable ever since. But in some ways, breaking this taboo should be welcomed
www.thetimes.com
November 9, 2025 at 12:04 PM
In some ways, the breaking of the taboo on ever raising income tax rates should be welcomed. It would be much better, though, if it were the product of a carefully thought-out tax reform strategy.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Hard to disagree.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Hard to disagree.
Reposted by David Smith
Excellent article by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social & the PS is fascinating also. Surprised this didn't happen already. We had a vote in class about IR - 2 went higher, 8 or 9 went lower & the rest held. Students had to justify their choice, so it seems reasonable MPC members should as well! #EconSky
My Sunday Times piece: A rise in income tax rates would be no bad thing if part of a proper tax reform strategy, but not as a panicked response to a failed budget deficit reduction policy, which is the reality:
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
How Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
It has been 50 years since the basic rate was raised and it has been untouchable ever since. But in some ways, breaking this taboo should be welcomed
www.thetimes.com
November 9, 2025 at 8:42 AM
Excellent article by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social & the PS is fascinating also. Surprised this didn't happen already. We had a vote in class about IR - 2 went higher, 8 or 9 went lower & the rest held. Students had to justify their choice, so it seems reasonable MPC members should as well! #EconSky
Reposted by David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: A rise in income tax rates would be no bad thing if part of a proper tax reform strategy, but not as a panicked response to a failed budget deficit reduction policy, which is the reality:
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
How Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
It has been 50 years since the basic rate was raised and it has been untouchable ever since. But in some ways, breaking this taboo should be welcomed
www.thetimes.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:08 PM
My Sunday Times piece: A rise in income tax rates would be no bad thing if part of a proper tax reform strategy, but not as a panicked response to a failed budget deficit reduction policy, which is the reality:
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
My Sunday Times piece: A rise in income tax rates would be no bad thing if part of a proper tax reform strategy, but not as a panicked response to a failed budget deficit reduction policy, which is the reality:
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
How Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
It has been 50 years since the basic rate was raised and it has been untouchable ever since. But in some ways, breaking this taboo should be welcomed
www.thetimes.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:08 PM
My Sunday Times piece: A rise in income tax rates would be no bad thing if part of a proper tax reform strategy, but not as a panicked response to a failed budget deficit reduction policy, which is the reality:
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
Reposted by David Smith
My Times piece: Why the Bank of England should not cut interest rates this week, ahead of the budget, and probably not again this year:
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
Though markets are set up for a close decision, they are on balance not expecting a cut. To reduce rates this week could put downward pressure on the pound
www.thetimes.com
November 4, 2025 at 4:47 PM
My Times piece: Why the Bank of England should not cut interest rates this week, ahead of the budget, and probably not again this year:
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
My Times piece: Why the Bank of England should not cut interest rates this week, ahead of the budget, and probably not again this year:
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
Though markets are set up for a close decision, they are on balance not expecting a cut. To reduce rates this week could put downward pressure on the pound
www.thetimes.com
November 4, 2025 at 4:47 PM
My Times piece: Why the Bank of England should not cut interest rates this week, ahead of the budget, and probably not again this year:
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Reposted by David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: Rachel Reeves’s fiscal consolidation in the budget will have a lot more chance of success if it includes spending cuts as well as tax hikes:
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
Most of the talk is of tax rises, but while the austerity years were unpopular, public spending restraint could save the government up to £165 billion
www.thetimes.com
November 1, 2025 at 3:21 PM
My Sunday Times piece: Rachel Reeves’s fiscal consolidation in the budget will have a lot more chance of success if it includes spending cuts as well as tax hikes:
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
My Sunday Times piece: Rachel Reeves’s fiscal consolidation in the budget will have a lot more chance of success if it includes spending cuts as well as tax hikes:
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
Most of the talk is of tax rises, but while the austerity years were unpopular, public spending restraint could save the government up to £165 billion
www.thetimes.com
November 1, 2025 at 3:21 PM
My Sunday Times piece: Rachel Reeves’s fiscal consolidation in the budget will have a lot more chance of success if it includes spending cuts as well as tax hikes:
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
Reposted by David Smith
Top 1% per cent, pre-tax income £219,000+, 26.6% all income tax 2025-26, down from 30.7% 2021-22. Top 5% (£99,900+) down 50.9% to 47.1%. Middle 25-5% up from 26 to 28.5%. Bottom 50% up 9.2 to 9.9%.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
Most of the talk is of tax rises, but while the austerity years were unpopular, public spending restraint could save the government up to £165 billion
www.thetimes.com
November 1, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Top 1% per cent, pre-tax income £219,000+, 26.6% all income tax 2025-26, down from 30.7% 2021-22. Top 5% (£99,900+) down 50.9% to 47.1%. Middle 25-5% up from 26 to 28.5%. Bottom 50% up 9.2 to 9.9%.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Reposted by David Smith
My Times piece: The OBR is downgrading its estimates of future UK productivity growth, with implications for tax hikes, at the very time that official measures of it have become very unreliable:
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
As the OBR sharpens its pencil for a downgrade that will affect Rachel Reeves’s budget, how accurate are the calculations?
www.thetimes.com
October 28, 2025 at 6:28 PM
My Times piece: The OBR is downgrading its estimates of future UK productivity growth, with implications for tax hikes, at the very time that official measures of it have become very unreliable:
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
My Times piece: The OBR is downgrading its estimates of future UK productivity growth, with implications for tax hikes, at the very time that official measures of it have become very unreliable:
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
As the OBR sharpens its pencil for a downgrade that will affect Rachel Reeves’s budget, how accurate are the calculations?
www.thetimes.com
October 28, 2025 at 6:28 PM
My Times piece: The OBR is downgrading its estimates of future UK productivity growth, with implications for tax hikes, at the very time that official measures of it have become very unreliable:
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve
www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...
Reposted by David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: The negative effects of Brexit on trade, investment, growth and productivity have re-emerged ahead of the November 26 budget. Plus: scrapping the 60% marginal rate would cost a lot:
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
As Rachel Reeves readies tax rises, the UK’s exit from the EU has left productivity, growth and trade in a worse place than they would have been
www.thetimes.com
October 25, 2025 at 2:40 PM
My Sunday Times piece: The negative effects of Brexit on trade, investment, growth and productivity have re-emerged ahead of the November 26 budget. Plus: scrapping the 60% marginal rate would cost a lot:
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
My Sunday Times piece: The negative effects of Brexit on trade, investment, growth and productivity have re-emerged ahead of the November 26 budget. Plus: scrapping the 60% marginal rate would cost a lot:
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
As Rachel Reeves readies tax rises, the UK’s exit from the EU has left productivity, growth and trade in a worse place than they would have been
www.thetimes.com
October 25, 2025 at 2:40 PM
My Sunday Times piece: The negative effects of Brexit on trade, investment, growth and productivity have re-emerged ahead of the November 26 budget. Plus: scrapping the 60% marginal rate would cost a lot:
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...