Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm.bsky.social
Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University. .. more
Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University.
Mohamed Aly El-Erian is an Egyptian-American economist and businessman. He is President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer (2007–14). He was chair of President Obama's Global Development Council (2012–17), and is a columnist for Bloomberg View, and a contributing editor to the Financial Times. El-Erian was a candidate in the 2025 University of Cambridge Chancellor election, coming second. .. more
Economics
67%
Business
13%
Good morning
Here’s the link to my weekly look at the global economy and markets:
www.linkedin.com/posts/mohame...
#economy #markets
Here’s the link to my weekly look at the global economy and markets:
www.linkedin.com/posts/mohame...
#economy #markets
Per Torsten Slok, “a record-high share of total wealth in the household sector is owned by people that are more than 70 years old.”
This challenges the idea that the tech-driven boom of the past decade would have made such a diatributuon skew younger.
#economy #markets #wealth #inequality
This challenges the idea that the tech-driven boom of the past decade would have made such a diatributuon skew younger.
#economy #markets #wealth #inequality
From the @wsj.com: “The booming industry of AI is like catnip to economics researchers. It’s new, rich in information and holds the potential to rearrange the economy.”
#economy #ai #economics
#economy #ai #economics
… near year-to-date lows. The MOVE Index, which tracks expected bond volatility, just touched its quietest level since early 2021. Tail-risk hedges have been unwound.”
More to follow on the “why” and the “so what.”
#economy #markets #volatility
More to follow on the “why” and the “so what.”
#economy #markets #volatility
Quite a few in economics, politics and international relations warn of unusual uncertainty and disruptive structural change. Yet market measures of volatility aren't reflecting this in any noticeable manner.
Specifically, and as noted by Bloomberg,
“The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, is hovering…
Specifically, and as noted by Bloomberg,
“The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, is hovering…
... see inflation at 4.1% (1-year) and 3.2% (5-10 years).
September Core PCE: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure edged lower to 2.8% from 2.9%, somewhat cooler than consensus forecasts. The headline measure rose from 2.7% to 2.8%, in line with the consensus forecast..
#economy #federalreserve
September Core PCE: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure edged lower to 2.8% from 2.9%, somewhat cooler than consensus forecasts. The headline measure rose from 2.7% to 2.8%, in line with the consensus forecast..
#economy #federalreserve
Two notable data points from the US today:
Consumer Confidence: Sentiment rose for the first time in nearly six months, jumping from 51 to 53.3 (beating the consensus forecast of 52). This was fueled entirely by the forward-looking component, which rose to 55.
Inflation Expectations: Consumers...
Consumer Confidence: Sentiment rose for the first time in nearly six months, jumping from 51 to 53.3 (beating the consensus forecast of 52). This was fueled entirely by the forward-looking component, which rose to 55.
Inflation Expectations: Consumers...
... inherently volatile — especially around holiday weeks like Thanksgiving — this drop will still attract attention to see whether this is a durable trend or just seasonal noise masking a cooling labor market.
#economy #LaborMarket #JoblessClaims #jobs #markets
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#economy #LaborMarket #JoblessClaims #jobs #markets
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While on US data:
Weekly jobless claims just came in significantly below expectations: 191,000 versus the consensus forecast of 220,000, the lowest since 2022.
While this weekly series is ...
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Weekly jobless claims just came in significantly below expectations: 191,000 versus the consensus forecast of 220,000, the lowest since 2022.
While this weekly series is ...
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...layoffs in November, a decline from the October spike but still up 23.5% year-on-year.
The main takeaway: Spending is holding up, but job (and, therefore, income) security may come under pressure.
The question: Which will prevail in 2026?
#economy #labormarket #ChallengerReport #markets
The main takeaway: Spending is holding up, but job (and, therefore, income) security may come under pressure.
The question: Which will prevail in 2026?
#economy #labormarket #ChallengerReport #markets
The contrast in US consumer-related data continues this morning.
On one hand, corporate earnings—highlighted by Dollar General this morning—signal impressively robust consumer spending.
On the other, labor market data sends a more uncertain signal:
The latest Challenger Report shows 71,321...
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On one hand, corporate earnings—highlighted by Dollar General this morning—signal impressively robust consumer spending.
On the other, labor market data sends a more uncertain signal:
The latest Challenger Report shows 71,321...
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From John Authers’ daily note:
“Remarkably, and counter to decades of prior experience, the average inflation rate in emerging economies is now slightly lower than in the developed world, where price rises have started to accelerate again.”
#economy #markets #em #EmergingMarkets #inflation
“Remarkably, and counter to decades of prior experience, the average inflation rate in emerging economies is now slightly lower than in the developed world, where price rises have started to accelerate again.”
#economy #markets #em #EmergingMarkets #inflation
Stephen Witt wins FT and Schroders Business Book of the Year
‘The Thinking Machine’ tells the inside story of how Nvidia became the world’s most valuable corporation
www.ft.com
...of six books.
Finally, my deep thanks to Roula Khalaf (Chair) and my fellow jury members for the open, engaging, and constructive deliberations, and to Andrew Hill, the architect of this wonderful process.
For more on this year's competition, please see below. 👇
www.ft.com/content/ee20...
Finally, my deep thanks to Roula Khalaf (Chair) and my fellow jury members for the open, engaging, and constructive deliberations, and to Andrew Hill, the architect of this wonderful process.
For more on this year's competition, please see below. 👇
www.ft.com/content/ee20...
Stephen Witt wins FT and Schroders Business Book of the Year
‘The Thinking Machine’ tells the inside story of how Nvidia became the world’s most valuable corporation
www.ft.com
And the winner of the Business Book of the Year is... The Thinking Machine!
Huge congratulations to the author, Stephen Witt, for this engaging and compelling book on Nvidia and its leader, Jensen Huang.
Congratulations also to all the authors featured in what constituted a truly great shortlist...
Huge congratulations to the author, Stephen Witt, for this engaging and compelling book on Nvidia and its leader, Jensen Huang.
Congratulations also to all the authors featured in what constituted a truly great shortlist...
US ADP report for November shows largest monthly job losses (32,000) since early 2023, undershooting the consensus forecast.
Re sectors: job losses were evenly distributed between goods and services.
Not so for the corporate distribution: Small companies took the brunt of the payroll reduction.
Re sectors: job losses were evenly distributed between goods and services.
Not so for the corporate distribution: Small companies took the brunt of the payroll reduction.
IMPRESSIVE CONSUMER RESILIENCE.
Quarterly numbers from American Eagle, Dollar Tree, and Macy’s point to better-than-expected sales ... aligning with strong Black Friday indicators and challenging the narrative that prices, debt, and income insecurity would hit spending—at least for now.
#economy
Quarterly numbers from American Eagle, Dollar Tree, and Macy’s point to better-than-expected sales ... aligning with strong Black Friday indicators and challenging the narrative that prices, debt, and income insecurity would hit spending—at least for now.
#economy
The US consumer remains an engine of the American and global economies.
Despite cautious outlooks from some executives and ongoing concerns about labor markets and household balance sheets (particularly of low-income households), the message from this morning’s corporate earnings is clear...
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Despite cautious outlooks from some executives and ongoing concerns about labor markets and household balance sheets (particularly of low-income households), the message from this morning’s corporate earnings is clear...
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...
Bitcoins need to continue to cultivate a deeper base of stable institutional investors,
and
Japan needs to reconcile inflation control, currency stability, and political pressure for lower rates.
#economy #markets #investors #investing #bitcoin #japan
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Bitcoins need to continue to cultivate a deeper base of stable institutional investors,
and
Japan needs to reconcile inflation control, currency stability, and political pressure for lower rates.
#economy #markets #investors #investing #bitcoin #japan
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Short-term market technicals have shifted from negative to neutral, with the combination of Bitcoins bouncing and stabilizing Japanese yields providing a sounder footing for risk assets.
Longer-term...
...
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Longer-term...
...
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According to Bloomberg, and per the BIS study:
"The world’s largest hedge funds are accumulating “substantially higher” leverage in the bond market than smaller rivals at very low cost."
#economy #markets #hedgefunds #bis
"The world’s largest hedge funds are accumulating “substantially higher” leverage in the bond market than smaller rivals at very low cost."
#economy #markets #hedgefunds #bis
While the implied market probability of a December Fed rate cut has climbed to 95%, confidence in follow-up reductions is far lower.
Per the Bloomberg charts below, markets assign a less than 30% probability to a subsequent cut in January—a view that extends to the following two meetings as well.
Per the Bloomberg charts below, markets assign a less than 30% probability to a subsequent cut in January—a view that extends to the following two meetings as well.
Eurozone November inflation delivered somewhat of an upside surprise, reinforcing an ECB on hold:
Headline Inflation edged up to 2.2%, above the consensus forecast, while core Inflation held at 2.4%.
This inflation outcome, driven primarily by the services sector, will keep the ECB on hold.
#europe
Headline Inflation edged up to 2.2%, above the consensus forecast, while core Inflation held at 2.4%.
This inflation outcome, driven primarily by the services sector, will keep the ECB on hold.
#europe
We desperately need reforms at the Federal Reserve, says Mohamed El-Erian
Mohamed El-Erian, The Wharton School Rene Kern professor and Allianz chief economic advisor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the AI trade, impact of AI on productivity...
www.cnbc.com
The link to this morning's CNBC conversation with Becky Quick and Joe Kernen -- on AI, the economy, Google, Accenture, and the Federal Reserve.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
#economy #markets #AI #federalreserve #google #accenture #cnbc @cnbc.com
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
#economy #markets #AI #federalreserve #google #accenture #cnbc @cnbc.com
The jury met today to discuss the shortlist for this year's Business Book of the Year.
Roula Khalaf, the editor of the Financial Times, will announce the winner in London Wednesday evening.
My deep thanks to the organizers for the privilege of serving on the jury.
@financialtimes.com #bbya #bbya25
Roula Khalaf, the editor of the Financial Times, will announce the winner in London Wednesday evening.
My deep thanks to the organizers for the privilege of serving on the jury.
@financialtimes.com #bbya #bbya25
Thank you, Becky Quick and Joe Kernen, for the interesting conversation this morning on CNBC.
#economy #markets #AI #FederalReserve @cnbc.com
#economy #markets #AI #FederalReserve @cnbc.com
Get Ready for an Overdue Fed Overhaul
Mohamed A. El-Erian hopes the US central bank's next chair shakes the institution out of its complacency.
www.project-syndicate.org
...
The third issue, as discussed here, is how will the new leadership handle the overdue reform of the world's most important central bank:
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...
#economy #markets #federalreserve @axios.com
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The third issue, as discussed here, is how will the new leadership handle the overdue reform of the world's most important central bank:
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...
#economy #markets #federalreserve @axios.com
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Per Axios, “President Trump said Sunday he's decided who he'll nominate to be the next Federal Reserve chair.”
Both this issue and the December rate decision currently dominate Fed-related conversations.
...
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Both this issue and the December rate decision currently dominate Fed-related conversations.
...
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