Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm.bsky.social
Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University. .. more
Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University.
Mohamed Aly El-Erian is an Egyptian-American economist and businessman. He is President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer (2007–14). He was chair of President Obama's Global Development Council (2012–17), and is a columnist for Bloomberg View, and a contributing editor to the Financial Times. El-Erian was a candidate in the 2025 University of Cambridge Chancellor election, coming second. .. more
Economics
67%
Business
13%
It's a gradual, broad-based process, albeit not that sizeable as of now:
Not only are yields rising across the advanced countries, but they are also doing so in response to a mix of economic factors — this as monetary policy continues to shift from highly correlated (rate cuts) to greater…
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Not only are yields rising across the advanced countries, but they are also doing so in response to a mix of economic factors — this as monetary policy continues to shift from highly correlated (rate cuts) to greater…
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…
In addition to the lack of overall clarity, these numbers will keep the analytical debate alive over whether supply or demand is driving current labor market dynamics.
#economy #jobs #employment #markets
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In addition to the lack of overall clarity, these numbers will keep the analytical debate alive over whether supply or demand is driving current labor market dynamics.
#economy #jobs #employment #markets
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The latest JOLTS report for October offers a mixed picture of the U.S. labor market.
Layoffs rose to 1.85 million — the highest since early 2023 — while hiring slowed. Yet job openings climbed to 7.67 million, the most in nearly half a year and well above expectations (7.12 million).
…
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Layoffs rose to 1.85 million — the highest since early 2023 — while hiring slowed. Yet job openings climbed to 7.67 million, the most in nearly half a year and well above expectations (7.12 million).
…
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The significance of the next Fed chair choice
While short-term market moves may be less dramatic than expected, profound changes are ahead for the central bank
www.ft.com
... key to maintaining its political autonomy and maximizing its contributions to long-term economic well-being.
www.ft.com/content/17ec...
#economy #markets #FederalReserve #growth
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www.ft.com/content/17ec...
#economy #markets #FederalReserve #growth
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The significance of the next Fed chair choice
While short-term market moves may be less dramatic than expected, profound changes are ahead for the central bank
www.ft.com
Via the Financial Times: My thoughts on why the significance of the next Federal Reserve Chair goes far beyond future rate adjustments.
Crucially, the new Chair will set the tone for much-needed reforms to strengthen the Fed's effectiveness.
This is ...
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Crucially, the new Chair will set the tone for much-needed reforms to strengthen the Fed's effectiveness.
This is ...
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... and, perhaps, financial stability talk.
(While on the Fed, please see next post on the significance of the next Chair.)
#economy #markets #FederalReserve #monetarypolicy #growth #jobs #inflation #GeminiAI
(Image generated by Google's Gemini AI.)
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(While on the Fed, please see next post on the significance of the next Chair.)
#economy #markets #FederalReserve #monetarypolicy #growth #jobs #inflation #GeminiAI
(Image generated by Google's Gemini AI.)
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The Federal Reserve's 2-day policy meeting kicks off today.
Strong Market Expectation (90%): 25 bps rate cut.
The Catch: Likely a hawkish packaging.
Other things to watch for: Officials’ characterization of economic developments and prospects, balance sheet plans ...
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Strong Market Expectation (90%): 25 bps rate cut.
The Catch: Likely a hawkish packaging.
Other things to watch for: Officials’ characterization of economic developments and prospects, balance sheet plans ...
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Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent.
www.rba.gov.au
The forward policy guidance of Australia's central bank is an extended pause/rate hike.
This hawkish tilt is prompted by economic strength and inflation risks "tilted to the upside."
Another example of the change in global central banking from highly correlated policy stances to more divergent ones
This hawkish tilt is prompted by economic strength and inflation risks "tilted to the upside."
Another example of the change in global central banking from highly correlated policy stances to more divergent ones
...
As momentum builds further—which it will—the winners won’t just be the smartest. They will be the ones that combine technical prowess with structural advantages, including substantial, diversified internal revenue generation.
#economy #AI @wsj.com @nytimes.com #markets
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As momentum builds further—which it will—the winners won’t just be the smartest. They will be the ones that combine technical prowess with structural advantages, including substantial, diversified internal revenue generation.
#economy #AI @wsj.com @nytimes.com #markets
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The corporate AI arms race isn’t just about tech; it’s also about durable structural advantages, including sustainable financing.
As this WSJ article highlights, some firms are already having to consider hard pivots. This is part of the dispersion phenomenon I discussed in my recent NYT article...
As this WSJ article highlights, some firms are already having to consider hard pivots. This is part of the dispersion phenomenon I discussed in my recent NYT article...
... on the labor market improved. Counter to other indicators, the expected probability of job loss fell while that of finding a job rose.
Please see the full results below. 👇
#economy #Inflation #jobs #employment #markets
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Please see the full results below. 👇
#economy #Inflation #jobs #employment #markets
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The latest NY Fed survey results just dropped.
Most of the data reinforces signals from other indicators, including inflation expectations anchored around 3%.
But here is the good surprise in the survey:
Household sentiment ...
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Most of the data reinforces signals from other indicators, including inflation expectations anchored around 3%.
But here is the good surprise in the survey:
Household sentiment ...
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Per the FT: “An Atlanta Federal Reserve analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that, after years of above-trend growth, pay for America’s lowest earners has slowed more sharply than for the highest.”
And this as the US labor market risks weakening further.
#economy #wages #inequality
And this as the US labor market risks weakening further.
#economy #wages #inequality
Good morning
Here’s the link to my weekly look at the global economy and markets:
www.linkedin.com/posts/mohame...
#economy #markets
Here’s the link to my weekly look at the global economy and markets:
www.linkedin.com/posts/mohame...
#economy #markets
Per Torsten Slok, “a record-high share of total wealth in the household sector is owned by people that are more than 70 years old.”
This challenges the idea that the tech-driven boom of the past decade would have made such a diatributuon skew younger.
#economy #markets #wealth #inequality
This challenges the idea that the tech-driven boom of the past decade would have made such a diatributuon skew younger.
#economy #markets #wealth #inequality
From the @wsj.com: “The booming industry of AI is like catnip to economics researchers. It’s new, rich in information and holds the potential to rearrange the economy.”
#economy #ai #economics
#economy #ai #economics
… near year-to-date lows. The MOVE Index, which tracks expected bond volatility, just touched its quietest level since early 2021. Tail-risk hedges have been unwound.”
More to follow on the “why” and the “so what.”
#economy #markets #volatility
More to follow on the “why” and the “so what.”
#economy #markets #volatility
Quite a few in economics, politics and international relations warn of unusual uncertainty and disruptive structural change. Yet market measures of volatility aren't reflecting this in any noticeable manner.
Specifically, and as noted by Bloomberg,
“The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, is hovering…
Specifically, and as noted by Bloomberg,
“The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, is hovering…
... see inflation at 4.1% (1-year) and 3.2% (5-10 years).
September Core PCE: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure edged lower to 2.8% from 2.9%, somewhat cooler than consensus forecasts. The headline measure rose from 2.7% to 2.8%, in line with the consensus forecast..
#economy #federalreserve
September Core PCE: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure edged lower to 2.8% from 2.9%, somewhat cooler than consensus forecasts. The headline measure rose from 2.7% to 2.8%, in line with the consensus forecast..
#economy #federalreserve
Two notable data points from the US today:
Consumer Confidence: Sentiment rose for the first time in nearly six months, jumping from 51 to 53.3 (beating the consensus forecast of 52). This was fueled entirely by the forward-looking component, which rose to 55.
Inflation Expectations: Consumers...
Consumer Confidence: Sentiment rose for the first time in nearly six months, jumping from 51 to 53.3 (beating the consensus forecast of 52). This was fueled entirely by the forward-looking component, which rose to 55.
Inflation Expectations: Consumers...
... inherently volatile — especially around holiday weeks like Thanksgiving — this drop will still attract attention to see whether this is a durable trend or just seasonal noise masking a cooling labor market.
#economy #LaborMarket #JoblessClaims #jobs #markets
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#economy #LaborMarket #JoblessClaims #jobs #markets
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While on US data:
Weekly jobless claims just came in significantly below expectations: 191,000 versus the consensus forecast of 220,000, the lowest since 2022.
While this weekly series is ...
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Weekly jobless claims just came in significantly below expectations: 191,000 versus the consensus forecast of 220,000, the lowest since 2022.
While this weekly series is ...
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...layoffs in November, a decline from the October spike but still up 23.5% year-on-year.
The main takeaway: Spending is holding up, but job (and, therefore, income) security may come under pressure.
The question: Which will prevail in 2026?
#economy #labormarket #ChallengerReport #markets
The main takeaway: Spending is holding up, but job (and, therefore, income) security may come under pressure.
The question: Which will prevail in 2026?
#economy #labormarket #ChallengerReport #markets
The contrast in US consumer-related data continues this morning.
On one hand, corporate earnings—highlighted by Dollar General this morning—signal impressively robust consumer spending.
On the other, labor market data sends a more uncertain signal:
The latest Challenger Report shows 71,321...
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On one hand, corporate earnings—highlighted by Dollar General this morning—signal impressively robust consumer spending.
On the other, labor market data sends a more uncertain signal:
The latest Challenger Report shows 71,321...
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From John Authers’ daily note:
“Remarkably, and counter to decades of prior experience, the average inflation rate in emerging economies is now slightly lower than in the developed world, where price rises have started to accelerate again.”
#economy #markets #em #EmergingMarkets #inflation
“Remarkably, and counter to decades of prior experience, the average inflation rate in emerging economies is now slightly lower than in the developed world, where price rises have started to accelerate again.”
#economy #markets #em #EmergingMarkets #inflation
Stephen Witt wins FT and Schroders Business Book of the Year
‘The Thinking Machine’ tells the inside story of how Nvidia became the world’s most valuable corporation
www.ft.com
...of six books.
Finally, my deep thanks to Roula Khalaf (Chair) and my fellow jury members for the open, engaging, and constructive deliberations, and to Andrew Hill, the architect of this wonderful process.
For more on this year's competition, please see below. 👇
www.ft.com/content/ee20...
Finally, my deep thanks to Roula Khalaf (Chair) and my fellow jury members for the open, engaging, and constructive deliberations, and to Andrew Hill, the architect of this wonderful process.
For more on this year's competition, please see below. 👇
www.ft.com/content/ee20...