Ensembleator
@ensembleator.bsky.social
Semi-retired meteorologist, living in lovely #YVR since 1994. I often write forecasts using abbreviations due to social media character limits. Dnt wry, U wll gt it.
Finally a cooler than average pattern for the west, for the latter part of Feb (forecast 19-26th). A detailed look at the ensemble for the LM does not suggest exceptional cold, but rather just a few C below seasonable temps is the most likely scenario. With periodic wintry precip. Took a while! :)
February 11, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Finally a cooler than average pattern for the west, for the latter part of Feb (forecast 19-26th). A detailed look at the ensemble for the LM does not suggest exceptional cold, but rather just a few C below seasonable temps is the most likely scenario. With periodic wintry precip. Took a while! :)
Patchy fg this AM #YVR + cirrus as a plume offshr shifts E into an ovhd upr rdg. The rdg weakens the plume so clouds ltr tdy-Thu but dry. Rain Thu eve-Fri w/alpine snow as the nxt wv/cold fnt takes aim at the central cst. Wknd looks mainly dry w/vrbl skies, cooler. Chc wintry precip any day nxt wk.
February 11, 2026 at 2:05 PM
Patchy fg this AM #YVR + cirrus as a plume offshr shifts E into an ovhd upr rdg. The rdg weakens the plume so clouds ltr tdy-Thu but dry. Rain Thu eve-Fri w/alpine snow as the nxt wv/cold fnt takes aim at the central cst. Wknd looks mainly dry w/vrbl skies, cooler. Chc wintry precip any day nxt wk.
Ensembles settling on a week + of at times wintry weather for the lower mainland #YVR beginning on the weekend. Alpine snowpack the biggest beneficiary as mean atmospheric temperatures hover daily at lower levels right at the rain-snow borderline. If you took the snow tires off, put 'em back on :)
February 10, 2026 at 3:30 PM
Ensembles settling on a week + of at times wintry weather for the lower mainland #YVR beginning on the weekend. Alpine snowpack the biggest beneficiary as mean atmospheric temperatures hover daily at lower levels right at the rain-snow borderline. If you took the snow tires off, put 'em back on :)
Upr trof ovr SWBC slides E w/an upr rdg bldg in its wake this eve. Plume to the W tracks E, lifted by a vry deep sfc low dvlpg (40N 170W) at the base of a vast upr low SE of Ern Siberia. Shwrs taper this AM #YVR then vrbl skies. Chc AM fg but mainly 🌞Wed. Shwrs ovnite-Thu AM then cldy. Cold fnt/🌧️Fri
February 10, 2026 at 2:29 PM
Upr trof ovr SWBC slides E w/an upr rdg bldg in its wake this eve. Plume to the W tracks E, lifted by a vry deep sfc low dvlpg (40N 170W) at the base of a vast upr low SE of Ern Siberia. Shwrs taper this AM #YVR then vrbl skies. Chc AM fg but mainly 🌞Wed. Shwrs ovnite-Thu AM then cldy. Cold fnt/🌧️Fri
Cool upr low 52.5N 136.5W shifts ESE tracking inland ovr Srn BC Tue. In its wake an upr rdg blds onshore but is followed Thu by a moist flow fm the WSW, then by a sharper, cool upr trof thru Sun. Shwrs tdy taperg Tue AM #YVR. Areas AM fog then 🌞 Wed. More cld Thu. Rain Fri. Unsettled cool wknd.
February 9, 2026 at 2:49 PM
Cool upr low 52.5N 136.5W shifts ESE tracking inland ovr Srn BC Tue. In its wake an upr rdg blds onshore but is followed Thu by a moist flow fm the WSW, then by a sharper, cool upr trof thru Sun. Shwrs tdy taperg Tue AM #YVR. Areas AM fog then 🌞 Wed. More cld Thu. Rain Fri. Unsettled cool wknd.
Colorful house boats on a beautiful day in North Vancouver
February 8, 2026 at 8:23 PM
Colorful house boats on a beautiful day in North Vancouver
Longer range ensemble forecasts suggest an interval of cooler, unsettled weather coming up for the BC S coast later next wk and byd, w/potentially sizeable additions to the alpine snowpack and the chance, at times, of wintry weather reaching as low as sea level #YVR (and not missing #SFU at all).
February 8, 2026 at 3:11 PM
Vrbl skies tdy #YVR w/areas AM low cloud + the cirrus edge of the plume to the S. The plume shifts S as an upr trof trailng S from a low S of Haida Gwaii shifts E thru the day, phasing w/a vortmax 44.5N 135.5W over SWBC Mon AM. Clds + ovnite w/shwrs Mon taperg Tue AM. Ptchy AM fg then 🌞/dry Wed.
February 8, 2026 at 2:46 PM
Vrbl skies tdy #YVR w/areas AM low cloud + the cirrus edge of the plume to the S. The plume shifts S as an upr trof trailng S from a low S of Haida Gwaii shifts E thru the day, phasing w/a vortmax 44.5N 135.5W over SWBC Mon AM. Clds + ovnite w/shwrs Mon taperg Tue AM. Ptchy AM fg then 🌞/dry Wed.
Rain has arrived #YVR. Plume extnds well SW of HI. Luckily it drops S fairly quickly, followed by decreasing temps aloft in a SW flow as an upr low 49N 152 W sloly shifts E. So rain tdy, tapering PM. Some clrg ovnite w/areas AM fg Sun then partial sun. Mon/Tue unsettled/shwry. 🌞 Wed. 🌧️/wind Thu
February 7, 2026 at 2:44 PM
Rain has arrived #YVR. Plume extnds well SW of HI. Luckily it drops S fairly quickly, followed by decreasing temps aloft in a SW flow as an upr low 49N 152 W sloly shifts E. So rain tdy, tapering PM. Some clrg ovnite w/areas AM fg Sun then partial sun. Mon/Tue unsettled/shwry. 🌞 Wed. 🌧️/wind Thu
Fast line of ACC on radar, moving with the wind aloft. Dry beneath the clouds so should just be a virga producer or just a few drops
February 6, 2026 at 11:35 PM
Fast line of ACC on radar, moving with the wind aloft. Dry beneath the clouds so should just be a virga producer or just a few drops
The edge of some mid cloud approaches #YVR but enjoy what will be a lovely spring-like day before our return to the usual dismal pattern tomorrow
February 6, 2026 at 3:35 PM
The edge of some mid cloud approaches #YVR but enjoy what will be a lovely spring-like day before our return to the usual dismal pattern tomorrow
Vrbl skies tdy #YVR as a weak upr trough to the N drags thru SW flow aloft. Next plume of subtrop moisture to the SW lands on SWBC ovnite w/rain taperg to shwrs Sat PM as the plume slumps to the S. Thereafter, flow cools as a major upr low 48N 154 W shifts E. Vrbl skies Sun. Unsettled/cooler Mon-Thu
February 6, 2026 at 3:28 PM
Vrbl skies tdy #YVR as a weak upr trough to the N drags thru SW flow aloft. Next plume of subtrop moisture to the SW lands on SWBC ovnite w/rain taperg to shwrs Sat PM as the plume slumps to the S. Thereafter, flow cools as a major upr low 48N 154 W shifts E. Vrbl skies Sun. Unsettled/cooler Mon-Thu
View from near the summit of Pump Peak Mt Seymour Park today. In spite of the snow cover it was def T-shirt weather up there
February 6, 2026 at 12:59 AM
View from near the summit of Pump Peak Mt Seymour Park today. In spite of the snow cover it was def T-shirt weather up there
Closest sounding to #YVR indicates a very warm Alpine today. 20C this AM at 400 m above Quillayute WA. Expect mid teems N Shore peaks this PM.
February 5, 2026 at 1:19 PM
Closest sounding to #YVR indicates a very warm Alpine today. 20C this AM at 400 m above Quillayute WA. Expect mid teems N Shore peaks this PM.
Patchy fog inland this AM #YVR; more xtensiv cst. Bcmg mainly 🌞 tdy w/a few mid clds movg around an upr rdg centred ovr NE NV. Mild. Rdg retreats Fri; mainly cldy. Wv in a moist SW flow hits the cst Sat for hvy rain taperg to shwrs Sun. Shwrs, cooler Mon. Unsettled/breezy/cool thru nxt wk. Alpine ❄️
February 5, 2026 at 1:16 PM
Patchy fog inland this AM #YVR; more xtensiv cst. Bcmg mainly 🌞 tdy w/a few mid clds movg around an upr rdg centred ovr NE NV. Mild. Rdg retreats Fri; mainly cldy. Wv in a moist SW flow hits the cst Sat for hvy rain taperg to shwrs Sun. Shwrs, cooler Mon. Unsettled/breezy/cool thru nxt wk. Alpine ❄️
SWBC undr a vry mild SW flow aloft. Abv a shallow inversion, dry up to 500 mb (6 km). Vrbl hi/mid cld tdy; vry mild #YVR. Fog likely Thu AM as skies clr ovnite undr a bldg upr rdg then mainly sunny. Areas AM fog Fri. Clds slowly increase PM. Rain Sat taperg to shwrs Sun. Some clrg/cooler Mon/Tue
February 4, 2026 at 3:06 PM
SWBC undr a vry mild SW flow aloft. Abv a shallow inversion, dry up to 500 mb (6 km). Vrbl hi/mid cld tdy; vry mild #YVR. Fog likely Thu AM as skies clr ovnite undr a bldg upr rdg then mainly sunny. Areas AM fog Fri. Clds slowly increase PM. Rain Sat taperg to shwrs Sun. Some clrg/cooler Mon/Tue
Big flow regime change between the next week and the week after #YVR in a climate model's weeklies. From very anomalous ridge to run of the mill trough. Troughing seems to persist into week-3. Potentially good news for SWBC alpine snowpack, after the weekend...
February 3, 2026 at 5:52 PM
Big flow regime change between the next week and the week after #YVR in a climate model's weeklies. From very anomalous ridge to run of the mill trough. Troughing seems to persist into week-3. Potentially good news for SWBC alpine snowpack, after the weekend...
Noticeably unusual is that the Rex block (an upper ridge/high over an upper trough/low) influencing SWBC weather thru the rest of this work week is btn a high over the USSW and a low off Baja CA MX
February 3, 2026 at 2:11 PM
Noticeably unusual is that the Rex block (an upper ridge/high over an upper trough/low) influencing SWBC weather thru the rest of this work week is btn a high over the USSW and a low off Baja CA MX
Deep sfc/upr low to the W (48N 160W) w/an upr ridge xtendng N alg the cst this AM, and a rich NNE-SSW plume of moisture btn them. The W coast rdg is Rex blocked thru Fri. Vrbl skies tdy-Wed #YVR. Chc shwr this eve. Mild. More sun Thu w/chc AM fg. Clds + Fri PM, Rain Sat, and a coolng trend starts
February 3, 2026 at 2:03 PM
Deep sfc/upr low to the W (48N 160W) w/an upr ridge xtendng N alg the cst this AM, and a rich NNE-SSW plume of moisture btn them. The W coast rdg is Rex blocked thru Fri. Vrbl skies tdy-Wed #YVR. Chc shwr this eve. Mild. More sun Thu w/chc AM fg. Clds + Fri PM, Rain Sat, and a coolng trend starts
A rich wave moves onto the SWBC cst this AM. Rain -hvy at times - #YVR, taperg to shwrs ltr PM. A rdg blds in its wake, centered ovr NW NV by Wed, which deflects moisture N. So dry, vry mild Tue-Fri. Chc fog Wed-Fri AMs esp Thu. Clds increase Sat w/rain by PM. Shwrs, breezy Sun. Cooler nxt wk.
February 2, 2026 at 2:23 PM
A rich wave moves onto the SWBC cst this AM. Rain -hvy at times - #YVR, taperg to shwrs ltr PM. A rdg blds in its wake, centered ovr NW NV by Wed, which deflects moisture N. So dry, vry mild Tue-Fri. Chc fog Wed-Fri AMs esp Thu. Clds increase Sat w/rain by PM. Shwrs, breezy Sun. Cooler nxt wk.
Shwrs - at times heavy - this AM #YVR as a cold fnt attached to vortmax off the WA cst lifts ovr SWBC. Lightr shwrs PM undr a trailing upr trof. Nxt sys dvlpg 40N 150W lifts ovr the cst Mon AM w/rain. Upr rdg blds in its wake for a dry+mild Tue/Wed w/vrbl skies. Chc fog Thu, then trending wet/cooler
February 1, 2026 at 2:36 PM
Shwrs - at times heavy - this AM #YVR as a cold fnt attached to vortmax off the WA cst lifts ovr SWBC. Lightr shwrs PM undr a trailing upr trof. Nxt sys dvlpg 40N 150W lifts ovr the cst Mon AM w/rain. Upr rdg blds in its wake for a dry+mild Tue/Wed w/vrbl skies. Chc fog Thu, then trending wet/cooler
Browsing some climo data for 2025 and wondering about Temp. Abby (away from the modulating effects of the Strait of Georgia) was the 6th warmest since 1977 (apparent limit of contiguous records). 2004 and 1985 stand out. What's notable is that there hasn't been a "below average" year since 2012.
January 31, 2026 at 3:20 PM
Browsing some climo data for 2025 and wondering about Temp. Abby (away from the modulating effects of the Strait of Georgia) was the 6th warmest since 1977 (apparent limit of contiguous records). 2004 and 1985 stand out. What's notable is that there hasn't been a "below average" year since 2012.
A warm fnt lifting N from a wave 49N 131W grazes the LM this AM w/a few shwrs. Shd be dry this PM #YVR; mild. Rain dvlps ovnite as the trailing cold fnt slowly shifts E, bcmg shwrs Sun due unstable air in the wake of the fnt. Clds/shwrs/mild Mon. Dry Tue-Fri as a stg upr rdg dvlps ovr NV, forcing 🌧️N
January 31, 2026 at 2:43 PM
A warm fnt lifting N from a wave 49N 131W grazes the LM this AM w/a few shwrs. Shd be dry this PM #YVR; mild. Rain dvlps ovnite as the trailing cold fnt slowly shifts E, bcmg shwrs Sun due unstable air in the wake of the fnt. Clds/shwrs/mild Mon. Dry Tue-Fri as a stg upr rdg dvlps ovr NV, forcing 🌧️N
Brisk, moist SW flow continues ovr SWBC. Nxt sfc wv lifts into N VI this AM, supported by a compact upr low 47N 131W. An upr rdg dvlps in its wake. Rain AM taperg to shwrs PM #YVR. Breezy. Sat mainly dry, mild. Rain back Sun. Pds rain Mon. Upr rdg blds fm the S for a dry, mild Tue-Thu w/vrbl skies
January 30, 2026 at 2:24 PM
Brisk, moist SW flow continues ovr SWBC. Nxt sfc wv lifts into N VI this AM, supported by a compact upr low 47N 131W. An upr rdg dvlps in its wake. Rain AM taperg to shwrs PM #YVR. Breezy. Sat mainly dry, mild. Rain back Sun. Pds rain Mon. Upr rdg blds fm the S for a dry, mild Tue-Thu w/vrbl skies