Ensembleator
@ensembleator.bsky.social
Semi-retired meteorologist, living in lovely #YVR since 1994. I often write forecasts using abbreviations due to social media character limits. Dnt wry, U wll gt it.
Spider my daughter and her partner needed to duck under on their dog-walk this morning. Brisbane QLD
December 3, 2025 at 12:41 AM
Spider my daughter and her partner needed to duck under on their dog-walk this morning. Brisbane QLD
Following the NAEFS, most of Canada settles into a modest cold anomaly 🥪into the middle of Dec, with likely above average temps over the US W and far NE Canada. Highest probability temps for the LM are near average (6C highs and 0C lows for #YVR). Mdl members show a lot of spread (low confidence)
December 2, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Following the NAEFS, most of Canada settles into a modest cold anomaly 🥪into the middle of Dec, with likely above average temps over the US W and far NE Canada. Highest probability temps for the LM are near average (6C highs and 0C lows for #YVR). Mdl members show a lot of spread (low confidence)
Sprawling lo over the Aleutians, wave nr 52N 143W, large upr ridge to its E. Misty/cool this AM #YVR w/a few PM moments of sun. Misty Wed. Rain dvlps Wed eve was a weak system forms off VI and continues to Fri AM as a trailing system further flattens the ridge as it tracks inland. Cldy, dampish wknd
December 2, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Sprawling lo over the Aleutians, wave nr 52N 143W, large upr ridge to its E. Misty/cool this AM #YVR w/a few PM moments of sun. Misty Wed. Rain dvlps Wed eve was a weak system forms off VI and continues to Fri AM as a trailing system further flattens the ridge as it tracks inland. Cldy, dampish wknd
Following CFSv2, 2nd week of Dec looks wet for the LM, but not ❄️- at least in the lwr levels - as heights drop but flow remains Wly. Pattern supported by all ensembles. Arctic air modified by transit over the Pacific reaches the coast, but pure arctic air from the interior can't. Lots of ❄️alpine.
December 1, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Following CFSv2, 2nd week of Dec looks wet for the LM, but not ❄️- at least in the lwr levels - as heights drop but flow remains Wly. Pattern supported by all ensembles. Arctic air modified by transit over the Pacific reaches the coast, but pure arctic air from the interior can't. Lots of ❄️alpine.
Ascent due to warm air advection aloft producing light shwrs this AM #YVR. Upr lo 53N 140W drops thru SWBC this eve then the upr ridge to its W rebuilds onto the cst. Shwrs taper ovnite. Clds Tue w/PM breaks. Cool, misty, dull, Wed. Weak wave dvlps in NW flo Thu w/shwrs. Rain Fri. No wntr in sight
December 1, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Ascent due to warm air advection aloft producing light shwrs this AM #YVR. Upr lo 53N 140W drops thru SWBC this eve then the upr ridge to its W rebuilds onto the cst. Shwrs taper ovnite. Clds Tue w/PM breaks. Cool, misty, dull, Wed. Weak wave dvlps in NW flo Thu w/shwrs. Rain Fri. No wntr in sight
Cold this AM w/most #YVR area stations reportng frost. Areas of fog in sheltered areas too, otwz mainly sunny tdy. Clds increase ltr PM as a stg rdg ovhd starts to flatten. Clds w/PM-eve shwrs Mon as a weak trof shifts thru SWBC. Rdg rebounds Tue/Thu: dry, cool, vrbl skies, some AM fog. Rain Fri.
November 30, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Cold this AM w/most #YVR area stations reportng frost. Areas of fog in sheltered areas too, otwz mainly sunny tdy. Clds increase ltr PM as a stg rdg ovhd starts to flatten. Clds w/PM-eve shwrs Mon as a weak trof shifts thru SWBC. Rdg rebounds Tue/Thu: dry, cool, vrbl skies, some AM fog. Rain Fri.
Pre WW2 house on an acreage in Maple Ridge this afternoon
November 30, 2025 at 3:45 AM
Pre WW2 house on an acreage in Maple Ridge this afternoon
Digging upr trof over SWBC this AM tracking SE. Bldg ridge to its W shifting E, to lie ovr SWBC Mon AM. Clds tdy #YVR w/a chc of a sprinkle or 2. Ptchy AM fog Sun then 🌞. Clds/shwrs Mon as the next upr trof slides in fm the W. Tue-Wed dry as the ridge rebounds. Rain/wind Thu. Wknd looks unsettled
November 29, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Digging upr trof over SWBC this AM tracking SE. Bldg ridge to its W shifting E, to lie ovr SWBC Mon AM. Clds tdy #YVR w/a chc of a sprinkle or 2. Ptchy AM fog Sun then 🌞. Clds/shwrs Mon as the next upr trof slides in fm the W. Tue-Wed dry as the ridge rebounds. Rain/wind Thu. Wknd looks unsettled
Weak rdg aloft bldg onto the cst this AM. Dvlpg upr trof nr 53N 150W flattens the rdg ovr SWBC Sat AM, w/a much sharpr rdg bldg in its wake. Rdg flattens Mon PM; rebounds Tue. 🎢 Areas fog this AM then 🌞. Vrbl skies PM -Sat w/more 🌞ltr PM. Areas fog Sun AM then some 🌞. Chc shwrs Mon, vrbl skies Tue
November 28, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Weak rdg aloft bldg onto the cst this AM. Dvlpg upr trof nr 53N 150W flattens the rdg ovr SWBC Sat AM, w/a much sharpr rdg bldg in its wake. Rdg flattens Mon PM; rebounds Tue. 🎢 Areas fog this AM then 🌞. Vrbl skies PM -Sat w/more 🌞ltr PM. Areas fog Sun AM then some 🌞. Chc shwrs Mon, vrbl skies Tue
#YVR E of an occluded low tracking E toward WA. Shwrs tdy endg ltr PM. Upr ridge blds in this eve but is nicked by a weak upr trof Sat AM, followd by strong ridge bldg onshore thru Mon. Vrbl skies Sat. More 🌞Sun. Chc shrs/drizzle Mon PM-Tue AM. Wed looks dry w/rain back late day-Thu
November 27, 2025 at 2:37 PM
#YVR E of an occluded low tracking E toward WA. Shwrs tdy endg ltr PM. Upr ridge blds in this eve but is nicked by a weak upr trof Sat AM, followd by strong ridge bldg onshore thru Mon. Vrbl skies Sat. More 🌞Sun. Chc shrs/drizzle Mon PM-Tue AM. Wed looks dry w/rain back late day-Thu
Dirty ridge defined by the sounding from Quillayute earlier this AM. Low level mositure trapped by an inversion at 1500 m. Hi level system cloud rounding the top of the upr ridge approaching the coast. Exceptionally dry layer between
November 26, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Dirty ridge defined by the sounding from Quillayute earlier this AM. Low level mositure trapped by an inversion at 1500 m. Hi level system cloud rounding the top of the upr ridge approaching the coast. Exceptionally dry layer between
Mainly cldy/dry tdy #YVR w/a transient dirty ridge bldg into the cst. Rain redvlps ovnite as a warm fnt fm a low near 40N 140W this AM lifts NE. Breezy Thu. Rain endg Thu eve as the low tracs inland just to the S. Vrbl skies Fri-Sun AM w/weak outflow. Misty eves, w/areas AM fog. Mon looks drizzly.
November 26, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Mainly cldy/dry tdy #YVR w/a transient dirty ridge bldg into the cst. Rain redvlps ovnite as a warm fnt fm a low near 40N 140W this AM lifts NE. Breezy Thu. Rain endg Thu eve as the low tracs inland just to the S. Vrbl skies Fri-Sun AM w/weak outflow. Misty eves, w/areas AM fog. Mon looks drizzly.
Another day, another moisture-rich plume from the SW lofting over #YVR. Light rain tdy tapering off erly Wed w/the rest of the day now dry. Dvlpg low 32N 160W brings rain/brisk E wind Thu AM, taperg Thu eve. Fri AM cool -areas fog - otwz wknd looks dry w/vrbl skies and mild outflow. Shwrs Mon.
November 25, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Another day, another moisture-rich plume from the SW lofting over #YVR. Light rain tdy tapering off erly Wed w/the rest of the day now dry. Dvlpg low 32N 160W brings rain/brisk E wind Thu AM, taperg Thu eve. Fri AM cool -areas fog - otwz wknd looks dry w/vrbl skies and mild outflow. Shwrs Mon.
Some undular AC at sunrise. Showers in radar over VI but moving briskly E
November 24, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Some undular AC at sunrise. Showers in radar over VI but moving briskly E
Weakng upr trough movs thru the LM this AM #YVR w/a few shwrs/mtn ❄️. Vrbl skies PM. Clds increase ovnite. Misty Tue w/shwrs; chc wet ❄️#SFU. Cldy Wed w/rain dvlpg eve. Rain, brisk E wind Thu, endng erly Fri AM. Mdls disagree on outflow WX for the wknd. Some wet, some not. My guess: clds/cool/dry
November 24, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Weakng upr trough movs thru the LM this AM #YVR w/a few shwrs/mtn ❄️. Vrbl skies PM. Clds increase ovnite. Misty Tue w/shwrs; chc wet ❄️#SFU. Cldy Wed w/rain dvlpg eve. Rain, brisk E wind Thu, endng erly Fri AM. Mdls disagree on outflow WX for the wknd. Some wet, some not. My guess: clds/cool/dry
W/the clouds/rain/short days of Nov, I'm seriously contemplating working from MX, but next wknd looking promising w/a dry and relatively mild arctic air outbreak in the cards (not a sure thing yet) for the Valley/#YVR. If this works out it's the best kind of late fall weather 🤞
November 23, 2025 at 4:15 PM
W/the clouds/rain/short days of Nov, I'm seriously contemplating working from MX, but next wknd looking promising w/a dry and relatively mild arctic air outbreak in the cards (not a sure thing yet) for the Valley/#YVR. If this works out it's the best kind of late fall weather 🤞
About an inch of rain (25mm) DT #YVR since precip began Fri AM (much more N shr/STS) and now a short break. Dry/vrbl skies tdy. Brisk W wind AM. Cldy/chc shwr w/a trailing upr trof ovnite-Mon AM. Cool. Flurries mtns. Vrbl skies/cool Tue AM w/rain dvlpg PM. Chc ❄️#SFU. Rain ends Wed PM. Thu/Fri dry
November 23, 2025 at 3:28 PM
About an inch of rain (25mm) DT #YVR since precip began Fri AM (much more N shr/STS) and now a short break. Dry/vrbl skies tdy. Brisk W wind AM. Cldy/chc shwr w/a trailing upr trof ovnite-Mon AM. Cool. Flurries mtns. Vrbl skies/cool Tue AM w/rain dvlpg PM. Chc ❄️#SFU. Rain ends Wed PM. Thu/Fri dry
Giant mushrooms in Mission BC. Genus Collybia. I’m sure we all feel a connection, given the weather
November 22, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Giant mushrooms in Mission BC. Genus Collybia. I’m sure we all feel a connection, given the weather
Moisture rich fntl zone slides SE thru the LM next 24 H. Rain - hvy at times- #YVR tapering Sun AM w/partial AM clrg; brisk W wind. Trailing unstable upr trof brings cld/chc shwr, mtn flurries Mon AM, then vrbl skies/cool. Cldy w/rain dvlpg Tue. Chc #SFU snow. Rain ends Wed PM, resumes Thu PM🌧️🌧️🌧️
November 22, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Upr lo ovr S CA. #YVR undr a stg W flow w/a moisture-rich plume just NW and an upr ridge just to the S. Plume slumps to the S and organizes into a cold fnt late Sat, shifting SE thru the LM Sun AM. Light shwrs tdy. Rain Sat w/brisk E wind PM. Vrbl skies Sun w/gusty W wind. Cool Mon. Chc ❄️SFU Tue PM
November 21, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Upr lo ovr S CA. #YVR undr a stg W flow w/a moisture-rich plume just NW and an upr ridge just to the S. Plume slumps to the S and organizes into a cold fnt late Sat, shifting SE thru the LM Sun AM. Light shwrs tdy. Rain Sat w/brisk E wind PM. Vrbl skies Sun w/gusty W wind. Cool Mon. Chc ❄️SFU Tue PM
Working N this AM. In a break #YVR as the next fntl sys organizes offshore, aided by a strong Pac jet. Shwrs redvlp ovnite and winds increase fm the E. Rain thru Sun AM -hvy Sat PM- then another pause Sun as hi pressure builds in fm the NW. Much cooler Mon,Tue. Chc SFU snow Tue eve. Cold rain Thu.
November 20, 2025 at 6:21 PM
Working N this AM. In a break #YVR as the next fntl sys organizes offshore, aided by a strong Pac jet. Shwrs redvlp ovnite and winds increase fm the E. Rain thru Sun AM -hvy Sat PM- then another pause Sun as hi pressure builds in fm the NW. Much cooler Mon,Tue. Chc SFU snow Tue eve. Cold rain Thu.
Climate model (CFS V2) on the dryish/warmish side for SWBC thru the middle of Dec w/a mean ridge just offshore. Take this for what it's worth. The la Nina is weak. Offshore SST has flipped from vry warm in Aug to moderately cool now. CFS V2 does better when large signals like these are stronger.
November 19, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Climate model (CFS V2) on the dryish/warmish side for SWBC thru the middle of Dec w/a mean ridge just offshore. Take this for what it's worth. The la Nina is weak. Offshore SST has flipped from vry warm in Aug to moderately cool now. CFS V2 does better when large signals like these are stronger.