Eva Vivalt
@evavivalt.bsky.social
Assistant prof in economics at the University of Toronto, research on cash transfers and evidence-based decision-making, J-PAL affiliate. https://evavivalt.com/
🚨 New working paper!
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
November 24, 2025 at 3:43 PM
🚨 New working paper!
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
It's really fun to be working in a cafe and overhear someone talking about basic income and your work!
November 21, 2025 at 7:20 PM
It's really fun to be working in a cafe and overhear someone talking about basic income and your work!
An inspired choice! I was thinking there may be a prize for innovation this year, and it is so richly deserved.
🎖️ The Prize in Economic Sciences is awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt!
Over the last two centuries the world has seen sustained economic growth. This year’s laureates explain how innovation provides the impetus for further progress.
#PrizeinEconomicSciences #NobelPrize
Over the last two centuries the world has seen sustained economic growth. This year’s laureates explain how innovation provides the impetus for further progress.
#PrizeinEconomicSciences #NobelPrize
October 13, 2025 at 1:23 PM
An inspired choice! I was thinking there may be a prize for innovation this year, and it is so richly deserved.
We've updated a paper on the 3-year, $1000/month U.S. guaranteed income study.
New results, in 3 figures: 🧵
1) Subjective well-being significantly improved in the treatment group in year 1, but there were no significant differences between the treatment & control group after that. 1/
New results, in 3 figures: 🧵
1) Subjective well-being significantly improved in the treatment group in year 1, but there were no significant differences between the treatment & control group after that. 1/
September 2, 2025 at 8:38 PM
We've updated a paper on the 3-year, $1000/month U.S. guaranteed income study.
New results, in 3 figures: 🧵
1) Subjective well-being significantly improved in the treatment group in year 1, but there were no significant differences between the treatment & control group after that. 1/
New results, in 3 figures: 🧵
1) Subjective well-being significantly improved in the treatment group in year 1, but there were no significant differences between the treatment & control group after that. 1/
Nice quote! One of the reasons for the Social Science Prediction Platform. A few of the cash transfer evaluations (including our own) collected ex ante forecasts there. @sdellavi.bsky.social
August 27, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Nice quote! One of the reasons for the Social Science Prediction Platform. A few of the cash transfer evaluations (including our own) collected ex ante forecasts there. @sdellavi.bsky.social
Reposted by Eva Vivalt
I don’t think I have ever publicly criticized any Presidential nominee before.
But E.J. Antoni is completely unqualified to be BLS Commissioner. He is an extreme partisan and does not have any relevant expertise.
He would be a break from decades of nonpartisan technocrats.
But E.J. Antoni is completely unqualified to be BLS Commissioner. He is an extreme partisan and does not have any relevant expertise.
He would be a break from decades of nonpartisan technocrats.
August 11, 2025 at 11:19 PM
I don’t think I have ever publicly criticized any Presidential nominee before.
But E.J. Antoni is completely unqualified to be BLS Commissioner. He is an extreme partisan and does not have any relevant expertise.
He would be a break from decades of nonpartisan technocrats.
But E.J. Antoni is completely unqualified to be BLS Commissioner. He is an extreme partisan and does not have any relevant expertise.
He would be a break from decades of nonpartisan technocrats.
Okay, now that I've used it for some work on forecasting, I have to say this is a fantastic tool! We will be changing some things in our paper as a result. Highly recommended!
I've been working on a new tool, Refine, to make scholars more productive. If you're interested in being among the very first to try the beta, please read on.
Refine leverages the best current AI models to draw your attention to potential errors and clarity issues in research paper drafts.
1/
Refine leverages the best current AI models to draw your attention to potential errors and clarity issues in research paper drafts.
1/
August 1, 2025 at 12:43 AM
Okay, now that I've used it for some work on forecasting, I have to say this is a fantastic tool! We will be changing some things in our paper as a result. Highly recommended!
Giving a seminar today at the World Bank's Strategic Impact Evaluation Fund, pulling together insights from three papers on the evidence-to-policy pipeline! Excited to engage with this group.
July 31, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Giving a seminar today at the World Bank's Strategic Impact Evaluation Fund, pulling together insights from three papers on the evidence-to-policy pipeline! Excited to engage with this group.
Niche, but did you know there is a TTC shop? This is such a perfect fit for my interests (maps, public transit, puzzles) that I have to share. Probably other transit systems make them, too?
July 30, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Niche, but did you know there is a TTC shop? This is such a perfect fit for my interests (maps, public transit, puzzles) that I have to share. Probably other transit systems make them, too?
Reposted by Eva Vivalt
My last living musical hero is still my hero but unfortunately no longer living. RIP to the great, great Mr. Tom Lehrer.
July 27, 2025 at 5:33 PM
My last living musical hero is still my hero but unfortunately no longer living. RIP to the great, great Mr. Tom Lehrer.
A salute to this man, who brought so much entertainment and camaraderie to so many. 💔 Several generations appreciating his music. www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAE...
Tom Lehrer - We Will All Go Together When We Go
YouTube video by The Tom Lehrer Wisdom Channel
www.youtube.com
July 27, 2025 at 9:11 PM
A salute to this man, who brought so much entertainment and camaraderie to so many. 💔 Several generations appreciating his music. www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAE...
Reposted by Eva Vivalt
I've been working on a new tool, Refine, to make scholars more productive. If you're interested in being among the very first to try the beta, please read on.
Refine leverages the best current AI models to draw your attention to potential errors and clarity issues in research paper drafts.
1/
Refine leverages the best current AI models to draw your attention to potential errors and clarity issues in research paper drafts.
1/
July 24, 2025 at 3:24 AM
I've been working on a new tool, Refine, to make scholars more productive. If you're interested in being among the very first to try the beta, please read on.
Refine leverages the best current AI models to draw your attention to potential errors and clarity issues in research paper drafts.
1/
Refine leverages the best current AI models to draw your attention to potential errors and clarity issues in research paper drafts.
1/
🚨 New NBER working paper: "The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Parenting and Children"
This paper estimates the effects of receiving a $1,000/month guaranteed income for 3 years, compared to a control group receiving $50/month, on children and parents in the US. 1/
This paper estimates the effects of receiving a $1,000/month guaranteed income for 3 years, compared to a control group receiving $50/month, on children and parents in the US. 1/
July 21, 2025 at 2:56 PM
🚨 New NBER working paper: "The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Parenting and Children"
This paper estimates the effects of receiving a $1,000/month guaranteed income for 3 years, compared to a control group receiving $50/month, on children and parents in the US. 1/
This paper estimates the effects of receiving a $1,000/month guaranteed income for 3 years, compared to a control group receiving $50/month, on children and parents in the US. 1/
Reposted by Eva Vivalt
1000 low income adults were randomly selected to receive $1000/month for 3 years, with a control group receiving $50/month over that same period. Many of them had children in the household. How did it affect how they parented and their kids’ outcomes? www.nber.org/papers/w34040
July 21, 2025 at 1:38 PM
1000 low income adults were randomly selected to receive $1000/month for 3 years, with a control group receiving $50/month over that same period. Many of them had children in the household. How did it affect how they parented and their kids’ outcomes? www.nber.org/papers/w34040
Reposted by Eva Vivalt
That sinking feeling when you accidentally send a tariff letter addressed to the leader of a ruling military junta that the United States refuses to recognize or (otherwise) engage with.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...
Shunned Myanmar leader thrilled at US contact after Trump tariff letter
Min Aung Hlaing expresses ‘sincere appreciation’ for letter from US president threatening 40% tariff
www.theguardian.com
July 11, 2025 at 5:19 PM
That sinking feeling when you accidentally send a tariff letter addressed to the leader of a ruling military junta that the United States refuses to recognize or (otherwise) engage with.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...
Interesting! They also have a great use of forecasts, comparing perceptions to reality.
LLMs have been causing many problems in sectors such as education, but it's conventional wisdom among AI proponents that it speeds up coding tasks.
That's why it may be surprising that this RCT by METR, evaluating selected open-source devs' speed, found that AI assistance *slowed them down*.
That's why it may be surprising that this RCT by METR, evaluating selected open-source devs' speed, found that AI assistance *slowed them down*.
July 10, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Interesting! They also have a great use of forecasts, comparing perceptions to reality.
New short meta-survey on the SSPP: can you predict how well people predict?
Try your hand at it:
socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0f... @socscipredict.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social
Try your hand at it:
socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0f... @socscipredict.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social
Forecasting the SSPP Research Results
Increasingly, researchers gather forecasts ex ante about the results of their research studies. Ex post, this allows for a comparison with the results to gauge contributions to the literature. But wha...
socialscienceprediction.org
July 10, 2025 at 4:35 PM
New short meta-survey on the SSPP: can you predict how well people predict?
Try your hand at it:
socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0f... @socscipredict.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social
Try your hand at it:
socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0f... @socscipredict.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social
If I lived in the US I'd be downloading a copy of the Benny Hill theme song on my phone just in case, just saying....
A friend of mine joked that an effective counterprotest might be to dress up as Keystone Cops or Monty-Python-style knights and walk along with them, harrumphing and making over-the-top displays of law enforcement.
Border patrol walking McArthur park here in LA
July 8, 2025 at 2:36 AM
If I lived in the US I'd be downloading a copy of the Benny Hill theme song on my phone just in case, just saying....
Reposted by Eva Vivalt
The US Administration is about to open a new front in its across-the-board assault on international students.
For the last half century, student visas in the US have been valid until graduation.
The White House will soon force those visas to expire in 2 to 4 years, max. Why that's so harmful—>
For the last half century, student visas in the US have been valid until graduation.
The White House will soon force those visas to expire in 2 to 4 years, max. Why that's so harmful—>
June 27, 2025 at 8:10 PM
The US Administration is about to open a new front in its across-the-board assault on international students.
For the last half century, student visas in the US have been valid until graduation.
The White House will soon force those visas to expire in 2 to 4 years, max. Why that's so harmful—>
For the last half century, student visas in the US have been valid until graduation.
The White House will soon force those visas to expire in 2 to 4 years, max. Why that's so harmful—>
It's here! A workshop on cash transfers and other social safety net programs at @econuoft.bsky.social with the Forward Society Lab.
Have some new results to share and looking forward to learning from others. Such a great community.
Have some new results to share and looking forward to learning from others. Such a great community.
Are you coming to Toronto for the SOLE/EALE/AASLE joint meeting?
Then you might be interested in a one-day workshop on cash transfers and other social safety net programs held at @uoft.bsky.social the day before. 1/ #SOLE2025 #econsky
@econuoft.bsky.social
Then you might be interested in a one-day workshop on cash transfers and other social safety net programs held at @uoft.bsky.social the day before. 1/ #SOLE2025 #econsky
@econuoft.bsky.social
June 26, 2025 at 11:55 AM
It's here! A workshop on cash transfers and other social safety net programs at @econuoft.bsky.social with the Forward Society Lab.
Have some new results to share and looking forward to learning from others. Such a great community.
Have some new results to share and looking forward to learning from others. Such a great community.
Delighted to have received an Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant for the next phase of the Social Science Prediction Platform!
Some exciting new developments coming soon... watch this space! @socscipredict.bsky.social @sloanfoundation.bsky.social @econuoft.bsky.social ft.bsky.social
Some exciting new developments coming soon... watch this space! @socscipredict.bsky.social @sloanfoundation.bsky.social @econuoft.bsky.social ft.bsky.social
June 25, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Delighted to have received an Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant for the next phase of the Social Science Prediction Platform!
Some exciting new developments coming soon... watch this space! @socscipredict.bsky.social @sloanfoundation.bsky.social @econuoft.bsky.social ft.bsky.social
Some exciting new developments coming soon... watch this space! @socscipredict.bsky.social @sloanfoundation.bsky.social @econuoft.bsky.social ft.bsky.social
Very last chance to sign up for this workshop on cash transfers and other social safety net programs, held in Toronto on June 26!
Are you coming to Toronto for the SOLE/EALE/AASLE joint meeting?
Then you might be interested in a one-day workshop on cash transfers and other social safety net programs held at @uoft.bsky.social the day before. 1/ #SOLE2025 #econsky
@econuoft.bsky.social
Then you might be interested in a one-day workshop on cash transfers and other social safety net programs held at @uoft.bsky.social the day before. 1/ #SOLE2025 #econsky
@econuoft.bsky.social
June 19, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Very last chance to sign up for this workshop on cash transfers and other social safety net programs, held in Toronto on June 26!
Excited to be presenting at the Forecasting Research Institute tomorrow on forecasting social science results, based on experiences with the Social Science Prediction Platform. Looking forward to the discussion!
June 12, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Excited to be presenting at the Forecasting Research Institute tomorrow on forecasting social science results, based on experiences with the Social Science Prediction Platform. Looking forward to the discussion!
Good day to dust off this old classic:
June 5, 2025 at 11:47 PM
Good day to dust off this old classic: