Fraser of Allander Institute
@fraserofallander.org
The Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde is an independent economic research unit providing expert analysis and insight on the Scottish economy. fraserofallander.org
1/ ICYMI: Scotland’s Budget Report 2026-27 is live today!
Here's the key takeaways from our report that you should know about the upcoming Scottish budget on Tuesday 13th Jan... 🧵
buff.ly/52A9kpV
Here's the key takeaways from our report that you should know about the upcoming Scottish budget on Tuesday 13th Jan... 🧵
buff.ly/52A9kpV
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
1/ ICYMI: Scotland’s Budget Report 2026-27 is live today!
Here's the key takeaways from our report that you should know about the upcoming Scottish budget on Tuesday 13th Jan... 🧵
buff.ly/52A9kpV
Here's the key takeaways from our report that you should know about the upcoming Scottish budget on Tuesday 13th Jan... 🧵
buff.ly/52A9kpV
📢 NEW: Scotland’s Budget Report for 2026-27 📢
Today, we publish our report on the upcoming Scottish Budget. One-off boosts mask an underlying resource deficit, but prioritisation will be required to rewrite unaffordable investment plans with a £1bn+ gap.
Read more here:
Today, we publish our report on the upcoming Scottish Budget. One-off boosts mask an underlying resource deficit, but prioritisation will be required to rewrite unaffordable investment plans with a £1bn+ gap.
Read more here:
buff.ly
January 9, 2026 at 6:00 AM
📢 NEW: Scotland’s Budget Report for 2026-27 📢
Today, we publish our report on the upcoming Scottish Budget. One-off boosts mask an underlying resource deficit, but prioritisation will be required to rewrite unaffordable investment plans with a £1bn+ gap.
Read more here:
Today, we publish our report on the upcoming Scottish Budget. One-off boosts mask an underlying resource deficit, but prioritisation will be required to rewrite unaffordable investment plans with a £1bn+ gap.
Read more here:
How do we make the aims of the Public Service Reform Strategy in relation to preventative budgeting a reality and what pitfalls need to be avoided? Some of our thoughts here:
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
Preventative budgeting in Scotland | FAI
Public service reform strategy and preventative budgeting - what needs to happen?
fraserofallander.org
January 7, 2026 at 3:58 PM
How do we make the aims of the Public Service Reform Strategy in relation to preventative budgeting a reality and what pitfalls need to be avoided? Some of our thoughts here:
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
Reposted by Fraser of Allander Institute
1/ This latest piece I've worked on is a reassessment of the implications of some of the OBR's long-term assumptions on indexation and what it means for fiscal sustainability.
Key point: fiscal drag is a feature, not a bug, and taxes are already going up even when thresholds are no longer frozen
Key point: fiscal drag is a feature, not a bug, and taxes are already going up even when thresholds are no longer frozen
January 6, 2026 at 5:49 PM
1/ This latest piece I've worked on is a reassessment of the implications of some of the OBR's long-term assumptions on indexation and what it means for fiscal sustainability.
Key point: fiscal drag is a feature, not a bug, and taxes are already going up even when thresholds are no longer frozen
Key point: fiscal drag is a feature, not a bug, and taxes are already going up even when thresholds are no longer frozen
How far away is the UK from fiscal sustainability? Read below to find out how fiscal drag and health spending affect these projections, and why the action needed to tackle the issue is smaller than might appear:
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
How far away is the UK from fiscal sustainability? | FAI
If you have been anywhere near the discussions about UK fiscal sustainability, the numbers look grim…
fraserofallander.org
January 6, 2026 at 2:11 PM
How far away is the UK from fiscal sustainability? Read below to find out how fiscal drag and health spending affect these projections, and why the action needed to tackle the issue is smaller than might appear:
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
When ministers say the Scottish Budget is balanced, is it a meaningful statement? Have they been plugging gaps with borrowing and non-recurring funding, including in the ABR?
Welcome to our Budget Report preview series - look out for more in January!
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
Welcome to our Budget Report preview series - look out for more in January!
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
How balanced is the Scottish Budget? | FAI
It has almost become a ritual – an article of faith that is repeated endlessly in the Scottish Parliament…
fraserofallander.org
December 19, 2025 at 3:48 PM
When ministers say the Scottish Budget is balanced, is it a meaningful statement? Have they been plugging gaps with borrowing and non-recurring funding, including in the ABR?
Welcome to our Budget Report preview series - look out for more in January!
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
Welcome to our Budget Report preview series - look out for more in January!
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
Glasgow City Council is proposing new neighbourhood parking controls with pay & display fees and emissions-based permits.
🎙️In our latest podcast, Hannah, Allison, & Josh break down:
▶️ What these changes mean for residents
▶️How this ties to air quality & climate goals.
👂Listen now:
🎙️In our latest podcast, Hannah, Allison, & Josh break down:
▶️ What these changes mean for residents
▶️How this ties to air quality & climate goals.
👂Listen now:
buff.ly
December 18, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Glasgow City Council is proposing new neighbourhood parking controls with pay & display fees and emissions-based permits.
🎙️In our latest podcast, Hannah, Allison, & Josh break down:
▶️ What these changes mean for residents
▶️How this ties to air quality & climate goals.
👂Listen now:
🎙️In our latest podcast, Hannah, Allison, & Josh break down:
▶️ What these changes mean for residents
▶️How this ties to air quality & climate goals.
👂Listen now:
Reposted by Fraser of Allander Institute
1/📄 New working paper
www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe...
On 4 Nov, the Chancellor heavily hinted Labour might break its manifesto and raise income tax. Nine days later: plan dropped, blamed on "better than expected OBR forecasts."
Those forecasts were delivered 5 days BEFORE her speech.
Thread 👇
www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe...
On 4 Nov, the Chancellor heavily hinted Labour might break its manifesto and raise income tax. Nine days later: plan dropped, blamed on "better than expected OBR forecasts."
Those forecasts were delivered 5 days BEFORE her speech.
Thread 👇
December 12, 2025 at 3:28 PM
1/📄 New working paper
www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe...
On 4 Nov, the Chancellor heavily hinted Labour might break its manifesto and raise income tax. Nine days later: plan dropped, blamed on "better than expected OBR forecasts."
Those forecasts were delivered 5 days BEFORE her speech.
Thread 👇
www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe...
On 4 Nov, the Chancellor heavily hinted Labour might break its manifesto and raise income tax. Nine days later: plan dropped, blamed on "better than expected OBR forecasts."
Those forecasts were delivered 5 days BEFORE her speech.
Thread 👇
The chaos of the UK Budget showed a broken process. But how can it be fixed? In this blog, our deputy director @joaosousa.bsky.social proposes a way forward: the OBR would first publish its baseline forecast, with a three-week window for Treasury policymaking.
Read more below:
buff.ly/ErNtglY
Read more below:
buff.ly/ErNtglY
A broken UK Budget process - and proposal to fix it | FAI
The consequences of the drip, drip, drip of Treasury briefing to the press in advance were no more apparent than during the chaotic…
fraserofallander.org
December 12, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The chaos of the UK Budget showed a broken process. But how can it be fixed? In this blog, our deputy director @joaosousa.bsky.social proposes a way forward: the OBR would first publish its baseline forecast, with a three-week window for Treasury policymaking.
Read more below:
buff.ly/ErNtglY
Read more below:
buff.ly/ErNtglY
Today we are launching the Scottish Public Spending Dashboard, a collaboration between the FAI and JRF. This is a new tool allowing detailed government spending figures to be accessed and analysed by a broader set of people.
Learn more below:
Learn more below:
buff.ly
December 11, 2025 at 8:00 AM
Today we are launching the Scottish Public Spending Dashboard, a collaboration between the FAI and JRF. This is a new tool allowing detailed government spending figures to be accessed and analysed by a broader set of people.
Learn more below:
Learn more below:
What’s happening to economic activity, employment and earnings in Scotland’s hospitality sector?
Find out in our latest Hospitality Statistics Briefing for 2025 👉
Find out in our latest Hospitality Statistics Briefing for 2025 👉
buff.ly
December 5, 2025 at 8:01 AM
What’s happening to economic activity, employment and earnings in Scotland’s hospitality sector?
Find out in our latest Hospitality Statistics Briefing for 2025 👉
Find out in our latest Hospitality Statistics Briefing for 2025 👉
Support for people with learning disabilities should reflect daily experiences, communication & wellbeing. Our collaboration with SCLD, PAMIS & DHI explores how person-owned data stores can help do this, while also enhancing the evidence base. Read more: buff.ly/acN7Umg
December 2, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Support for people with learning disabilities should reflect daily experiences, communication & wellbeing. Our collaboration with SCLD, PAMIS & DHI explores how person-owned data stores can help do this, while also enhancing the evidence base. Read more: buff.ly/acN7Umg
Listen to our podcast reacting to yesterday's Budget, where we talk about the two-child limit abolition, tax rises and the risks in the course chosen by the Chancellor, and the chaos of the process:
buff.ly/Vy8nodi
We also have a round-up of some measures you may have missed:
buff.ly/ziriaXW
buff.ly/Vy8nodi
We also have a round-up of some measures you may have missed:
buff.ly/ziriaXW
Podcast: Reaction to the 2025 Budget | FAI
In this episode, FAI Deputy Director João Sousa is joined by FAI Director Mairi Spowage and Senior KE Fellow Spencer Thompson to talk through their reactions to the 2025 UK Budget.
fraserofallander.org
November 27, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Listen to our podcast reacting to yesterday's Budget, where we talk about the two-child limit abolition, tax rises and the risks in the course chosen by the Chancellor, and the chaos of the process:
buff.ly/Vy8nodi
We also have a round-up of some measures you may have missed:
buff.ly/ziriaXW
buff.ly/Vy8nodi
We also have a round-up of some measures you may have missed:
buff.ly/ziriaXW
We have now updated our blog with all the analysis we'll include tonight. Read below:
buff.ly/0T3M3SD
Stay tuned tomorrow as we round up the news on the budget in an edition of our podcast, and we'll add some more analysis in the afternoon as well
buff.ly/0T3M3SD
Stay tuned tomorrow as we round up the news on the budget in an edition of our podcast, and we'll add some more analysis in the afternoon as well
Budget 2025 reaction: meeting the (briefed) expectations | FAI
*Please note that this blog will be updated over the course of the afternoon and evening. Check back for further analysis*
fraserofallander.org
November 26, 2025 at 5:38 PM
We have now updated our blog with all the analysis we'll include tonight. Read below:
buff.ly/0T3M3SD
Stay tuned tomorrow as we round up the news on the budget in an edition of our podcast, and we'll add some more analysis in the afternoon as well
buff.ly/0T3M3SD
Stay tuned tomorrow as we round up the news on the budget in an edition of our podcast, and we'll add some more analysis in the afternoon as well
Our view - the £22bn headroom is a fiscal fiction. Allowing for fuel duty freezes and discounting non-credible spending cuts, it's more like £15bn - so not much higher than before, and not enough for normal forecast uncertainty
So much briefing inevitably leads to a Budget that did not have many surprises. But what's the real story behind the spin? Read our initial reaction, and keep checking back over the course of the afternoon and evening for further analysis:
fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...
fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...
Budget 2025 reaction: meeting the (briefed) expectations | FAI
*Please note that this blog will be updated over the course of the afternoon and evening. Check back for further analysis*
fraserofallander.org
November 26, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Our view - the £22bn headroom is a fiscal fiction. Allowing for fuel duty freezes and discounting non-credible spending cuts, it's more like £15bn - so not much higher than before, and not enough for normal forecast uncertainty
Some additional analysis on the two-child limit being abolished and what it means for Scotland - including why only £120m of the £155m set aside is likely to be available for other spending by the Scottish Government
fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...
fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...
Budget 2025 reaction: meeting the (briefed) expectations | FAI
*Please note that this blog will be updated over the course of the afternoon and evening. Check back for further analysis*
fraserofallander.org
November 26, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Some additional analysis on the two-child limit being abolished and what it means for Scotland - including why only £120m of the £155m set aside is likely to be available for other spending by the Scottish Government
fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...
fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...
So much briefing inevitably leads to a Budget that did not have many surprises. But what's the real story behind the spin? Read our initial reaction, and keep checking back over the course of the afternoon and evening for further analysis:
fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...
fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...
Budget 2025 reaction: meeting the (briefed) expectations | FAI
*Please note that this blog will be updated over the course of the afternoon and evening. Check back for further analysis*
fraserofallander.org
November 26, 2025 at 3:06 PM
So much briefing inevitably leads to a Budget that did not have many surprises. But what's the real story behind the spin? Read our initial reaction, and keep checking back over the course of the afternoon and evening for further analysis:
fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...
fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...
The UK Government are publishing a plan for the North Sea alongside the Budget today, and perhaps changes to the tax regime - ICYMI, we discuss the current state of the energy sector in this podcast
Podcast - Is the energy sector at a turning point - with Deloitte | FAI
Join institute Director Mairi Spowage, who has a conversation with Professor Paul De Leeuw, Head of the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University, and Hayley Strachan, who leads…
buff.ly
November 26, 2025 at 8:43 AM
The UK Government are publishing a plan for the North Sea alongside the Budget today, and perhaps changes to the tax regime - ICYMI, we discuss the current state of the energy sector in this podcast
ICYMI - what could be on the menu in the budget this afternoon? Essential pre-budget reading as we all wonder if the Irn Bru recipe will change again...
UK Budget Preview #3: Eyeing up a smorgasbord | FAI
The UK Budget is still more than a week away, but it feels very long in the tooth already…
buff.ly
November 26, 2025 at 7:09 AM
ICYMI - what could be on the menu in the budget this afternoon? Essential pre-budget reading as we all wonder if the Irn Bru recipe will change again...
Fraser of Allander Institute is supporting this event on the 5th November. Please sign up if you are interested and haven't arleady!
Emma Congreve (@emmanomics.bsky.social)
We have a few spaces left for an in person event on Tax and Poverty on the 5th December in Glasgow. Aimed at experts and non-experts alike. Speakers include @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social Sara Cowan…
buff.ly
November 24, 2025 at 10:02 AM
Fraser of Allander Institute is supporting this event on the 5th November. Please sign up if you are interested and haven't arleady!
A few days out from the UK Budget, a chance to reflect on the process. This is NOT normal. But we can and should improve the forecast process if we want increased public trust and transparency.
Read our analysis below:
buff.ly/jUliDtB
Read our analysis below:
buff.ly/jUliDtB
UK Budget Preview #4: This is not normal | FAI
As we approach the day of the UK Budget, it’s worth reflecting on just how unusual the process so far has been and what a better one might look like…
fraserofallander.org
November 21, 2025 at 3:29 PM
A few days out from the UK Budget, a chance to reflect on the process. This is NOT normal. But we can and should improve the forecast process if we want increased public trust and transparency.
Read our analysis below:
buff.ly/jUliDtB
Read our analysis below:
buff.ly/jUliDtB
Essential pre-budget reading and listening - is the energy transition at a critical point? buff.ly/Y4EqUY0
See also the accompanying podcast with Professor Paul De Leeuw and Hayley Strachan from Deloitte.
buff.ly/NEXV43x
See also the accompanying podcast with Professor Paul De Leeuw and Hayley Strachan from Deloitte.
buff.ly/NEXV43x
UK Energy Transition at a crossroads: could the moment be missed? | FAI
New analysis from the Fraser of Allander Institute finds that the UK’s energy sector is at a critical turning point, with a deteriorating investment environment putting jobs, tax revenues and…
buff.ly
November 21, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Essential pre-budget reading and listening - is the energy transition at a critical point? buff.ly/Y4EqUY0
See also the accompanying podcast with Professor Paul De Leeuw and Hayley Strachan from Deloitte.
buff.ly/NEXV43x
See also the accompanying podcast with Professor Paul De Leeuw and Hayley Strachan from Deloitte.
buff.ly/NEXV43x
As the Chancellor reaches for the smorgasbord option on taxes, why is she in such a pickle? And is her planned headroom enough to avoid coming back next year for more?
Read our latest Budget preview below:
fraserofallander.org/uk-budget-pr...
Read our latest Budget preview below:
fraserofallander.org/uk-budget-pr...
UK Budget Preview #3: Eyeing up a smorgasbord | FAI
The UK Budget is still more than a week away, but it feels very long in the tooth already…
fraserofallander.org
November 18, 2025 at 7:17 PM
As the Chancellor reaches for the smorgasbord option on taxes, why is she in such a pickle? And is her planned headroom enough to avoid coming back next year for more?
Read our latest Budget preview below:
fraserofallander.org/uk-budget-pr...
Read our latest Budget preview below:
fraserofallander.org/uk-budget-pr...
This is clever briefing but not actually how OBR forecasts work.
The last pre-measures forecast, where this could have been true - was 31 Oct, 5 days before Chancellor's speech. Market determinants were also taken a month ago.
This suggest pulling back was the plan all along.
The last pre-measures forecast, where this could have been true - was 31 Oct, 5 days before Chancellor's speech. Market determinants were also taken a month ago.
This suggest pulling back was the plan all along.
The UK government ditched plans to raise income tax rates after an improved fiscal forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility, according to people familiar with the matter.
Follow our live blog for the latest: on.ft.com/4pc7LC1
Follow our live blog for the latest: on.ft.com/4pc7LC1
November 14, 2025 at 11:52 AM
This is clever briefing but not actually how OBR forecasts work.
The last pre-measures forecast, where this could have been true - was 31 Oct, 5 days before Chancellor's speech. Market determinants were also taken a month ago.
This suggest pulling back was the plan all along.
The last pre-measures forecast, where this could have been true - was 31 Oct, 5 days before Chancellor's speech. Market determinants were also taken a month ago.
This suggest pulling back was the plan all along.
If the two-child limit to Universal Credit is abolished, the Scottish Government will save £155 million next year. In our second budget preview, we discuss how these savings could be spent on further measures to tackle child poverty:
fraserofallander.org/budget-previ...
fraserofallander.org/budget-previ...
Implications for Scotland of abolishing the two-child limit | FAI
This article considers the implications for Scotland if the UK Government were to abolish the two-child limit to Universal Credit in its 2025 Autumn Budget.
fraserofallander.org
November 13, 2025 at 4:38 PM
If the two-child limit to Universal Credit is abolished, the Scottish Government will save £155 million next year. In our second budget preview, we discuss how these savings could be spent on further measures to tackle child poverty:
fraserofallander.org/budget-previ...
fraserofallander.org/budget-previ...