Fraser of Allander Institute
@fraserofallander.org
The Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde is an independent economic research unit providing expert analysis and insight on the Scottish economy. fraserofallander.org
10/ If you're confused as to why a multi-year review is happening 4 months before an election - we presume because the many delivery bodies are desperate for some multi-year funding certainty, and ScotGov did not want further criticism for delay
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
10/ If you're confused as to why a multi-year review is happening 4 months before an election - we presume because the many delivery bodies are desperate for some multi-year funding certainty, and ScotGov did not want further criticism for delay
9/ And finally, what can we expect from the Scottish Spending Review? If detailed lines are only Level 2 as in 2022, it's very high level - even level 4 is in many cases very opaque when it comes to services delivered by other bodies.
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
9/ And finally, what can we expect from the Scottish Spending Review? If detailed lines are only Level 2 as in 2022, it's very high level - even level 4 is in many cases very opaque when it comes to services delivered by other bodies.
8/ We also look at how to make the aims of the Public Service Reform in relation to preventative budgeting a reality and what pitfalls need to be avoided:
- Being clear on what is being prevented
- Dealing with the practicalities of the budget process
buff.ly/KY0jrLr
- Being clear on what is being prevented
- Dealing with the practicalities of the budget process
buff.ly/KY0jrLr
Preventative budgeting in Scotland | FAI
Public service reform strategy and preventative budgeting - what needs to happen?
buff.ly
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
8/ We also look at how to make the aims of the Public Service Reform in relation to preventative budgeting a reality and what pitfalls need to be avoided:
- Being clear on what is being prevented
- Dealing with the practicalities of the budget process
buff.ly/KY0jrLr
- Being clear on what is being prevented
- Dealing with the practicalities of the budget process
buff.ly/KY0jrLr
7/ This is made much worse by the large gap by 29-30 in the MTFS, and looks impossible to close on tax alone - tax rate hikes would be v large because of Scottish income distribution. A degree of lower health spending growth would be required
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
7/ This is made much worse by the large gap by 29-30 in the MTFS, and looks impossible to close on tax alone - tax rate hikes would be v large because of Scottish income distribution. A degree of lower health spending growth would be required
6/ The adjustment necessary at UK level is not too severe, requiring modestly bearing down on health spending growth and slightly increasing taxes. But the effects on the Scottish Budget would be severe, because much of the long-term ScotGov funding is health consequentials
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
6/ The adjustment necessary at UK level is not too severe, requiring modestly bearing down on health spending growth and slightly increasing taxes. But the effects on the Scottish Budget would be severe, because much of the long-term ScotGov funding is health consequentials
5/ We have a deep dive into UK and Scottish fiscal sustainability.
Once we account for fiscal drag over the long-run, taxes are due to go up by >8% of GDP, or £250bn in today's terms. But poor productivity growth means that still isn’t enough to stop debt rising
Once we account for fiscal drag over the long-run, taxes are due to go up by >8% of GDP, or £250bn in today's terms. But poor productivity growth means that still isn’t enough to stop debt rising
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
5/ We have a deep dive into UK and Scottish fiscal sustainability.
Once we account for fiscal drag over the long-run, taxes are due to go up by >8% of GDP, or £250bn in today's terms. But poor productivity growth means that still isn’t enough to stop debt rising
Once we account for fiscal drag over the long-run, taxes are due to go up by >8% of GDP, or £250bn in today's terms. But poor productivity growth means that still isn’t enough to stop debt rising
4/ On capital, something will have to give: We hope the long-awaited Infrastructure Investment Plan will explain to the public how projects have been prioritised – and crucially, which ones will no longer be going ahead and why
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
4/ On capital, something will have to give: We hope the long-awaited Infrastructure Investment Plan will explain to the public how projects have been prioritised – and crucially, which ones will no longer be going ahead and why
3/ This will continue a years-long pattern of using exceptional items and non-recurring revenues to finance day-to-day spending. But this approach cannot be relied on indefinitely.
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
3/ This will continue a years-long pattern of using exceptional items and non-recurring revenues to finance day-to-day spending. But this approach cannot be relied on indefinitely.
2/ The UK Budget increased funding by £300m , and further improvements to tax and social sec forecasts boost funding by an additional £450m.
On current plans, the Scottish Government will use this one-off boost to offset an underlying resource deficit of £0.5bn in 2026-27
On current plans, the Scottish Government will use this one-off boost to offset an underlying resource deficit of £0.5bn in 2026-27
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
2/ The UK Budget increased funding by £300m , and further improvements to tax and social sec forecasts boost funding by an additional £450m.
On current plans, the Scottish Government will use this one-off boost to offset an underlying resource deficit of £0.5bn in 2026-27
On current plans, the Scottish Government will use this one-off boost to offset an underlying resource deficit of £0.5bn in 2026-27