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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 21h

Peso is undervalued 😂

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 21h

Nigeria’s central bank governor speaking to a packed event organised by the Wheeler Institute, part of London Business School. Impressive

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 1d

You may well be right of course!

Difference between the two … I couldn’t finish Miran’s article, unclear, poorly written or just didn’t make sense to me

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 1d

And partly so that Bessent can be criticised with his own words, if his short listed Fed Governor ends up doing QE

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 1d

Ok, ok, maybe I’m reading too much in that bit.

But it was a good read

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 1d

The important take-away for markets is that Bessent would clearly not favour a return to QE policies to get the long end of the bond curve down, if an overly dovish Fed created inflation

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 1d

I quibble with just one line. He provides good evidence on the first argument ..but in this piece offers no evidence that tax cuts and deregulation would have been more successful

Curiously he makes a better argument in justifying Trump calling for interest rate cuts

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 1d

Enjoyed this essay by economic historian Scott Bessent

www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Bes...

He highlights how the Fed kept over-estimating the growth benefits of QE

Also hints here about how the Fed may have contributed to the dissatisfaction which led to Trump’s victory in 2024

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 3d

Not often there's a media report on Burundi .. so appreciate this by the FT and Andres Schipani

Serene Doomer @serenaribena.bsky.social · 5d

'Burundi endures ‘worst economic crisis in a country not at war’...

“We ate some fish in 2019. That was a good day,” said 40yo Aleko in Buterere... in the landlocked African nation of Burundi. “Now, every once in a while, we eat peanuts. This is worse than before,”'

www.ft.com/content/4aca...

Burundi endures ‘worst economic crisis in a country not at war’

Central African nation struggles to emerge from poverty and conflict as president promises reform

www.ft.com

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 8d

This is great piece, very clear and well structured

When the AI stock bubble crashes, it won’t necessitate QE type policies from the Fed as the bubble is built on equity on debt

Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 8d

Many thanks to @tonytassell.bsky.social at the @financialtimes.com Times for asking me to share my thoughts on why I believe the AI capex boom signals the start of the end-game for this phase of the AI bubble.

www.ft.com/content/c7b9...

The AI capex endgame is approaching

The rapid building of excess capacity both extends bubbles and ultimately bursts them

www.ft.com

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 9d

🙏 I’m sure P&G would have cited other issues.

And to be fair, in a country Pakistan’s size there will be areas with millions of people with the skills to do manufacturing.

My point is that disappointment and problems are more likely than easy successes that last decades (Vietnam, Korea, etc)

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 9d

Pakistan is not ready to industrialise, due to low female literacy.

P&G decision to stop manufacturing razors and other goods, is evidence of this.

See “The Time Travelling Economist”

Unfortunate for this government which has done an excellent job in bringing macro stability to Pakistan

The Standard @thestandard.com.pk · 9d

P&G announces it is shutting down operations in Pakistan, with Gillette Pakistan Limited notifying PSX of intent to delist in light of parent company’s decision

P&G to Shut Down Operations in Pakistan

Gillette Pakistan Limited has notified PSX of intent to delist in light of parent company’s decision

thestandard.com.pk

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 10d

AGOA expired last night, but most assume it will be renewed, and attached to some other legislation Congress passes

Doubt it'll show up in trade data if we get renewal in the next few weeks

Ex-AGOA, Kenya's total tariff increase half of China or India, but above Vietnam

unctad.org/news/tariffs...

Tariffs, trade and preferences: What if AGOA ends?

Market access to the United States could further deteriorate for many African countries if the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is not renewed before its expiration on 30 September 2025.

unctad.org

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 10d

Bernanke, 2008

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 10d

US government looming shutdown

All important upcoming Argentina elections

Zimbabwe introduces a new currency to control inflation

Any other headlines you've read more times than you can count over your career?

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 10d

Sounds like most of them haven't been to Saudi Arabia, and that includes the ones refusing to go

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 10d

Some basically good inflation data out of Uganda, rising from 3.8% to 4.0% driven by tomatoes and pineapples from what I can see.

Good news for bullish Uganda bond investors .. and there's a lot of you about

www.ubos.org/wp-content/u...

www.ubos.org

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 11d

Lesotho called this first .. which is curious given they were hit hardest in Africa in the original April tariffs (since much reduced) www.reuters.com/world/africa...

US plans to extend Africa trade deal by a year, says Lesotho minister

Lesotho's trade minister said on Wednesday that the U.S. plans to extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which gives the continent preferential access to U.S. markets, by a year, after returning from a visit to Washington.

www.reuters.com

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 11d

Good news on AGOA, especially for SA, Kenya, Madagascar and DR Congo among the non-oil beneficiaries

Uncertain which piece of legislation it can be attached to .. or whether we face a temporary interruption until the US government shutdown is over (a month with Trump last time)

t.co/XrO0ljvBN0

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/trump-administration-says-it-supports-1-year-renewal-africa-trade-initiative-2025-09-29/

t.co

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 11d

A little economic history on how the US dollar rose, and then fell, before becoming the world’s dominant currency, by Barry Eichengreen

Today China remains far from from rivalling the US based on these factors

www.wsj.com/finance/curr...

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 12d

Morocco gets back the investment grade it lost in 2021. The other two agencies are still 1 notch lower, with stable outlooks on their Ba1 and BB+ sub-investment grade ratings

S&P thinks budget deficit will be 3% of GDP in 2026 and the C/A deficit will remain small

www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...

www.spglobal.com

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 12d

WSJ online led with Cook court cases twice in recent weeks (FT didn’t). Today WSJ leading with credit market .. FT UK with a story about Jaguar Land Rover

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 12d

It’s a shame to see the FT ignore the first half of its name. First 9 pages of UK edition has no reference to an exchange rate or interest rate, or an equity or bond price.
The Argentine peso gets a mention on page 10.
Silver lining, FT only needs skim reading
WSJ now becoming required reading

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 16d

Good timing

EM_Credit_Fund @emcreditfund.bsky.social · 22d

This one is over. Time to flip it.

Argent > Ecua.

EM_Credit_Fund @emcreditfund.bsky.social · Aug 27

Never. In. Doubt. 😂

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 16d

Interesting. Kindle version too?

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