Gabriel Sterne
@gabrielsterne.bsky.social
Emerging markets, central banks, other stuff.
Economist, Oxford Economics, previously Exotix, BoE, IMF, CB of Solomon Islands (ODI)
Economist, Oxford Economics, previously Exotix, BoE, IMF, CB of Solomon Islands (ODI)
An obituary to the IMF's chief nemesis and a lovely caring man, Peter Doyle . Thanks to my co-author and substack host @generaltheorist.bsky.social
moneyinsideout.substack.com/p/peter-doyle
moneyinsideout.substack.com/p/peter-doyle
Peter Doyle
Tribute to a good salty man
moneyinsideout.substack.com
December 14, 2025 at 2:43 PM
An obituary to the IMF's chief nemesis and a lovely caring man, Peter Doyle . Thanks to my co-author and substack host @generaltheorist.bsky.social
moneyinsideout.substack.com/p/peter-doyle
moneyinsideout.substack.com/p/peter-doyle
Reposted by Gabriel Sterne
Very sad to hear that Peter Doyle has died. May he rest in peace. He was an all-too-rare iconoclastic voice in international macro. Do read @gabrielsterne.bsky.social and @generaltheorist.bsky.social's tribute to him: open.substack.com/pub/moneyins...
Peter Doyle
Tribute to a good salty man
open.substack.com
December 13, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Very sad to hear that Peter Doyle has died. May he rest in peace. He was an all-too-rare iconoclastic voice in international macro. Do read @gabrielsterne.bsky.social and @generaltheorist.bsky.social's tribute to him: open.substack.com/pub/moneyins...
One of Peter’s final posts. Uncompromising (and impolite!) campaigner for improvements at IMF to the end.
It is professionally unacceptable to be this ignorant of a country on which you are imposing Conditionality.
December 8, 2025 at 7:49 AM
One of Peter’s final posts. Uncompromising (and impolite!) campaigner for improvements at IMF to the end.
So so sad that my dear friend Peter Doyle (@retepelyod.bsky.social) has passed away after a short illness. One of a kind. A brilliant, relentless and uncompromising campaigner for institutional improvement and economic justice for the world’s disadvantaged. And a lovely friend who blossomed with age
Client Challenge
Please enable JavaScript to proceed.
on.ft.com
December 7, 2025 at 10:06 AM
So so sad that my dear friend Peter Doyle (@retepelyod.bsky.social) has passed away after a short illness. One of a kind. A brilliant, relentless and uncompromising campaigner for institutional improvement and economic justice for the world’s disadvantaged. And a lovely friend who blossomed with age
Ireland, having other peoples cake and eating other peoples cake
But critics argue that Ireland, awash with cash from a corporation tax bonanza paid by global firms with big operations in the country, is using its neutral status to duck its 21st-century responsibilities.
November 25, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Ireland, having other peoples cake and eating other peoples cake
EM bonds got more robust in global risk off episodes nowadays. Partly because creditor composition of EM debt got safer relative to advanced economies (AEs). In last 5 years (i) EM domestic funding markets got bigger (ii) foreign non-banks hold more AE debt and (ii) QT reduced holdings of loyal cbs
November 25, 2025 at 1:51 PM
EM bonds got more robust in global risk off episodes nowadays. Partly because creditor composition of EM debt got safer relative to advanced economies (AEs). In last 5 years (i) EM domestic funding markets got bigger (ii) foreign non-banks hold more AE debt and (ii) QT reduced holdings of loyal cbs
Looking for a "10% off Stablecoin" Black Friday deal. Surely somebody knows about one
November 18, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Looking for a "10% off Stablecoin" Black Friday deal. Surely somebody knows about one
Not often I disagree with my colleague Sergi Lanau but I think his wild claim that Senegal's bonds could be 25% overvalued may be a bit..... well.... optimistic for bondholders
Unmissable note should you be one of our clients my.oxfordeconomics.com/reportaction...
Unmissable note should you be one of our clients my.oxfordeconomics.com/reportaction...
November 7, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Not often I disagree with my colleague Sergi Lanau but I think his wild claim that Senegal's bonds could be 25% overvalued may be a bit..... well.... optimistic for bondholders
Unmissable note should you be one of our clients my.oxfordeconomics.com/reportaction...
Unmissable note should you be one of our clients my.oxfordeconomics.com/reportaction...
Uzbekistan to invest on average more than 10% of GDP in US every year over next decade (wink emoji, wink emoji, wink emoji)
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Says Uzbekistan to Invest More Than $100 Billion in US
Uzbekistan will invest more than $100 billion in the US over the next decade, President Donald Trump said.
www.bloomberg.com
November 7, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Uzbekistan to invest on average more than 10% of GDP in US every year over next decade (wink emoji, wink emoji, wink emoji)
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Gabriel Sterne
Reposted by Gabriel Sterne
more than a whiff of self-censorship in markets at the moment. No-one wants to call BS on, ya know, everything, for fear of angering the president
on.ft.com/4pRyTHp
on.ft.com/4pRyTHp
October 3, 2025 at 5:29 PM
more than a whiff of self-censorship in markets at the moment. No-one wants to call BS on, ya know, everything, for fear of angering the president
on.ft.com/4pRyTHp
on.ft.com/4pRyTHp
Trump's Argentine bail out could set up biggest sovereign story of the decade. If Argentina defaults despite the bail out, Trump will want seniority, but IMF cant give it. You can imagine how this descends into a colossal row between IMF and its biggest shareholder www.ft.com/content/4127...
Bessent says US in talks with Argentina over $20bn swap line
Proposed measure comes as Trump administration seeks to support Javier Milei’s libertarian government
www.ft.com
September 24, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Trump's Argentine bail out could set up biggest sovereign story of the decade. If Argentina defaults despite the bail out, Trump will want seniority, but IMF cant give it. You can imagine how this descends into a colossal row between IMF and its biggest shareholder www.ft.com/content/4127...
EM Asia now clearly the most vulnerable in my latest global tariff rankings.
August 12, 2025 at 9:49 AM
EM Asia now clearly the most vulnerable in my latest global tariff rankings.
A silver cigarette box, with Eddie George's hand offering them to Bank of England youngsters (those selected for one of his "tea with the Deputy Governor" office hours)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Bank of England: What will the new banknotes look like?
Young people are among those suggesting new themes for the biggest change to banknotes in 50 years.
www.bbc.co.uk
August 5, 2025 at 7:36 AM
A silver cigarette box, with Eddie George's hand offering them to Bank of England youngsters (those selected for one of his "tea with the Deputy Governor" office hours)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Im outing myself as a "Which?" lover www.which.co.uk/news/article...
The Which? Shoddies 2025 - Which?
Find out which products and services we think deserve the spotlight for all the wrong reasons
www.which.co.uk
July 18, 2025 at 9:09 AM
Im outing myself as a "Which?" lover www.which.co.uk/news/article...
OK I admit it, nobody is perfect, I cant write research as quickly as Trump can write letters
July 10, 2025 at 10:12 AM
OK I admit it, nobody is perfect, I cant write research as quickly as Trump can write letters
Losing a 287 day Duolingo streak turned out to be surprisingly liberating. The tinge of sadness far outweighed by the satisfaction of sticking 2 fingers up at a nauseatingly nagging algorithm
June 23, 2025 at 7:03 AM
Losing a 287 day Duolingo streak turned out to be surprisingly liberating. The tinge of sadness far outweighed by the satisfaction of sticking 2 fingers up at a nauseatingly nagging algorithm
Trump caves in to pressure to make chart scales more suitable for non-Chinese economies
May 12, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Trump caves in to pressure to make chart scales more suitable for non-Chinese economies
My own bit of paradise after London Marathon. Blew up in last 5k but still got PB of 3.03.
Amazing support so much appreciated. Love the way Brits become the most friendly folk in world to those with marathon medal
Amazing support so much appreciated. Love the way Brits become the most friendly folk in world to those with marathon medal
April 29, 2025 at 5:28 AM
My own bit of paradise after London Marathon. Blew up in last 5k but still got PB of 3.03.
Amazing support so much appreciated. Love the way Brits become the most friendly folk in world to those with marathon medal
Amazing support so much appreciated. Love the way Brits become the most friendly folk in world to those with marathon medal
A 19pt swing in net approval since inauguration... even before Main St endures tariff impact. When are the mid-terms? When will he start to lose his grip on US inc. and Republican politicians?
www.natesilver.net/p/trump-appr...
www.natesilver.net/p/trump-appr...
April 25, 2025 at 6:57 AM
A 19pt swing in net approval since inauguration... even before Main St endures tariff impact. When are the mid-terms? When will he start to lose his grip on US inc. and Republican politicians?
www.natesilver.net/p/trump-appr...
www.natesilver.net/p/trump-appr...
Good news for Japan, Korea, Germany. Its not just about how much the US is tariffing you, but also how much the US is tariffing your competitors...
For now thats mainly an issue of how much you compete with China in US markets, but that could change faster than you can say the word "liberation"
For now thats mainly an issue of how much you compete with China in US markets, but that could change faster than you can say the word "liberation"
April 22, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Good news for Japan, Korea, Germany. Its not just about how much the US is tariffing you, but also how much the US is tariffing your competitors...
For now thats mainly an issue of how much you compete with China in US markets, but that could change faster than you can say the word "liberation"
For now thats mainly an issue of how much you compete with China in US markets, but that could change faster than you can say the word "liberation"
Trump and Lula, brothers in self-defeating credibility destruction.
"BCB will be forced to address market backlash following perception that appointments and decisions represent dovish turn from central bank, causing the BCB to convince public otherwise." @fcamargo.bsky.social (2024)
"BCB will be forced to address market backlash following perception that appointments and decisions represent dovish turn from central bank, causing the BCB to convince public otherwise." @fcamargo.bsky.social (2024)
April 22, 2025 at 10:32 AM
Trump and Lula, brothers in self-defeating credibility destruction.
"BCB will be forced to address market backlash following perception that appointments and decisions represent dovish turn from central bank, causing the BCB to convince public otherwise." @fcamargo.bsky.social (2024)
"BCB will be forced to address market backlash following perception that appointments and decisions represent dovish turn from central bank, causing the BCB to convince public otherwise." @fcamargo.bsky.social (2024)
Interesting IMF GFSR piece on financial spillovers from EMs having increased since GFC, though I wonder how much of that is down to a China story that is based on what happened a few years ago
www.imf.org/~/media/Webs...
www.imf.org/~/media/Webs...
www.imf.org
April 22, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Interesting IMF GFSR piece on financial spillovers from EMs having increased since GFC, though I wonder how much of that is down to a China story that is based on what happened a few years ago
www.imf.org/~/media/Webs...
www.imf.org/~/media/Webs...
Political attacks like this typically mean policy needs to tighten to offset credibility loss…
Lula’s foolish interventions in Brazil the most glaring example
www.ft.com/content/1cd3...
Lula’s foolish interventions in Brazil the most glaring example
www.ft.com/content/1cd3...
Dollar weakens after Trump attacks on Fed
Gold price climbs while Swiss franc reaches 10-year high
www.ft.com
April 21, 2025 at 6:42 AM
Political attacks like this typically mean policy needs to tighten to offset credibility loss…
Lula’s foolish interventions in Brazil the most glaring example
www.ft.com/content/1cd3...
Lula’s foolish interventions in Brazil the most glaring example
www.ft.com/content/1cd3...