William Spaniel
@gametheory101.bsky.social
Not much is known about what is in the tentative agreement between the United States and Ukraine, but I cover it for the first five minutes today. Then another eight minutes of how all of the disjoined White House actions reveal a Vance-Rubio power struggle.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=egSF...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=egSF...
The Ukraine-U.S. Peace Deal: The Good, the Bad, and the White House Power Struggle
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
November 25, 2025 at 10:40 PM
Not much is known about what is in the tentative agreement between the United States and Ukraine, but I cover it for the first five minutes today. Then another eight minutes of how all of the disjoined White House actions reveal a Vance-Rubio power struggle.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=egSF...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=egSF...
9 minutes of what was lost by waiting to respond to Russia.
45 minutes going through the document point-by-point. There is a bunch of subtle stuff that is easy to overlook here.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGAj...
45 minutes going through the document point-by-point. There is a bunch of subtle stuff that is easy to overlook here.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGAj...
Why Europe's New Peace Deal Showcases the Power of Agenda Setting
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:42 PM
9 minutes of what was lost by waiting to respond to Russia.
45 minutes going through the document point-by-point. There is a bunch of subtle stuff that is easy to overlook here.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGAj...
45 minutes going through the document point-by-point. There is a bunch of subtle stuff that is easy to overlook here.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGAj...
By (likely) leaking the peace plan, Russia set the agenda here. The Kremlin understands the value of this. Europe does not or is too politically paralyzed to do anything about it. Either way, it is to Ukraine’s detriment.
youtu.be/kpBKttsvyEE
youtu.be/kpBKttsvyEE
Inside the Leaked Ukraine Deal: The Kremlin's Games, Europe’s Failure, and Trump's Indifference
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
November 23, 2025 at 8:04 PM
By (likely) leaking the peace plan, Russia set the agenda here. The Kremlin understands the value of this. Europe does not or is too politically paralyzed to do anything about it. Either way, it is to Ukraine’s detriment.
youtu.be/kpBKttsvyEE
youtu.be/kpBKttsvyEE
This is getting messy. Senators claim that Rubio told them that the peace plan was Russia’s, not a White House position. A spokesman from the State Department says that Rubio never said that.
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
US senators say Rubio told them Trump’s Ukraine peace plan is Russia's 'wish list'
U.S. senators critical of President Donald Trump’s approach to ending the Russia-Ukraine war say they spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio who told them that the peace plan Trump is pushing ...
www.washingtonpost.com
November 23, 2025 at 2:06 AM
This is getting messy. Senators claim that Rubio told them that the peace plan was Russia’s, not a White House position. A spokesman from the State Department says that Rubio never said that.
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
Hopefully never—it’s only bad news if I do.
@gametheory101.bsky.social Venezuela video when?
November 22, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Hopefully never—it’s only bad news if I do.
Yes.
Could hear the frustration in your voice - are you more frustrated a) that things have gotten to this point (again), b) as an academic with expertise in this area; how clownishly written the 'plan' is, or c) that from a US perspective someone with so little diplomatic experience is leading this?
November 21, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Yes.
Five minutes of a broad overview of exactly where we are and what is wrong here. Fifty minutes of going through the entire document, point by point, to showcase just how bizarre it is.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9d9Z...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9d9Z...
28 Points of Pain: The Plethora of Problems with the U.S./Russia Peace Plan
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
November 21, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Five minutes of a broad overview of exactly where we are and what is wrong here. Fifty minutes of going through the entire document, point by point, to showcase just how bizarre it is.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9d9Z...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9d9Z...
Ukraine's air campaign has subtly added a second dimension, and it has *striking* economic and strategic implications.
youtu.be/LpgiTa3IzGc
youtu.be/LpgiTa3IzGc
The Astonishing Success of Ukraine’s Air Campaign
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
November 17, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Ukraine's air campaign has subtly added a second dimension, and it has *striking* economic and strategic implications.
youtu.be/LpgiTa3IzGc
youtu.be/LpgiTa3IzGc
Is Trump about to Start a Diversionary War in Venezuela?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
November 14, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Big yikes from YouTube's suggested thumbnails for tomorrow's video. There was a time when these would be all you could choose from!
November 14, 2025 at 4:45 AM
Big yikes from YouTube's suggested thumbnails for tomorrow's video. There was a time when these would be all you could choose from!
The USS Ford has arrived in the Caribbean, and Venezuela has mobilized some of its forces. This is the first real window where some serious military action could occur.
Below, stock video from two months ago of an F/A-18F about to land on the Ford.
Below, stock video from two months ago of an F/A-18F about to land on the Ford.
November 12, 2025 at 4:06 PM
The USS Ford has arrived in the Caribbean, and Venezuela has mobilized some of its forces. This is the first real window where some serious military action could occur.
Below, stock video from two months ago of an F/A-18F about to land on the Ford.
Below, stock video from two months ago of an F/A-18F about to land on the Ford.
If Ukraine was currently torching all of your oil refineries, would you (A) give away air defenses or (B) not give away air defenses?
youtu.be/JgL2hZWj3gk
youtu.be/JgL2hZWj3gk
Russia Just Did Something Utterly Bizarre in Venezuela
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
November 7, 2025 at 6:35 PM
If Ukraine was currently torching all of your oil refineries, would you (A) give away air defenses or (B) not give away air defenses?
youtu.be/JgL2hZWj3gk
youtu.be/JgL2hZWj3gk
Updated map of the current campaign's strikes on oil and gas facilities in Russia, after two more last night.
November 4, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Updated map of the current campaign's strikes on oil and gas facilities in Russia, after two more last night.
A House of Dynamite was great except:
1) the head of STRATCOM implausibly does not understand nuclear strategy 101
2) it was a fantastic first three episodes of an eight episode series
3 the Secretary of Defense was seemingly as uninterested in how it ends as the writer was
1) the head of STRATCOM implausibly does not understand nuclear strategy 101
2) it was a fantastic first three episodes of an eight episode series
3 the Secretary of Defense was seemingly as uninterested in how it ends as the writer was
October 28, 2025 at 12:16 AM
A House of Dynamite was great except:
1) the head of STRATCOM implausibly does not understand nuclear strategy 101
2) it was a fantastic first three episodes of an eight episode series
3 the Secretary of Defense was seemingly as uninterested in how it ends as the writer was
1) the head of STRATCOM implausibly does not understand nuclear strategy 101
2) it was a fantastic first three episodes of an eight episode series
3 the Secretary of Defense was seemingly as uninterested in how it ends as the writer was
Ever wonder how exactly Ukraine protects its skies from one-way attack drones and glide bombs? I went to Istanbul to talk to the folks behind some of the cutting edge air defense technologies.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=--q_...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=--q_...
How Ukraine Intercepts Russian Drones and Glide Bombs (And What NATO Is Doing about the Problem)
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
October 21, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Ever wonder how exactly Ukraine protects its skies from one-way attack drones and glide bombs? I went to Istanbul to talk to the folks behind some of the cutting edge air defense technologies.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=--q_...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=--q_...
Update to Ukraine's energy infrastructure sabotage campaign, current through October 19. The map getting VERY cluttered.
October 19, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Update to Ukraine's energy infrastructure sabotage campaign, current through October 19. The map getting VERY cluttered.
After a quiet few days on the energy infrastructure front (but not weapons production facilities), Ukraine struck a couple places last night.
October 9, 2025 at 7:52 PM
After a quiet few days on the energy infrastructure front (but not weapons production facilities), Ukraine struck a couple places last night.
Time lapse of every suspected Ukrainian attack on Russian energy infrastructure that I could find. I didn't fully appreciate the extent of the damage until I saw all of the Xs accumulate.
October 6, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Time lapse of every suspected Ukrainian attack on Russian energy infrastructure that I could find. I didn't fully appreciate the extent of the damage until I saw all of the Xs accumulate.
Another night, another fire at a Russian refinery, this one about a 900 kilometers flight. Inset image is from NASA's fire tracker.
October 5, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Another night, another fire at a Russian refinery, this one about a 900 kilometers flight. Inset image is from NASA's fire tracker.
Covering a huge distance to hit a refinery is much easier to do when you know where the air defenses are.
(Note: There is no way to know whether U.S. intel contributed here, and Ukraine already struck it last month.)
youtu.be/mjET8JH-zBg
(Note: There is no way to know whether U.S. intel contributed here, and Ukraine already struck it last month.)
youtu.be/mjET8JH-zBg
October 4, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Covering a huge distance to hit a refinery is much easier to do when you know where the air defenses are.
(Note: There is no way to know whether U.S. intel contributed here, and Ukraine already struck it last month.)
youtu.be/mjET8JH-zBg
(Note: There is no way to know whether U.S. intel contributed here, and Ukraine already struck it last month.)
youtu.be/mjET8JH-zBg
Discussion of what U.S. intel sharing about long-distance targeting can do for Ukraine, and what it says about the overall U.S.-Ukraine relationship.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjET...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjET...
Game Changer: How the U.S. Is Helping Ukraine Destroy Russian Refineries
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
October 3, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Discussion of what U.S. intel sharing about long-distance targeting can do for Ukraine, and what it says about the overall U.S.-Ukraine relationship.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjET...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjET...
A discussion of just how much a possible no-fly zone in Ukraine has evolved over the last three years, and just how plausible Poland's plan is.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=diqh...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=diqh...
Inside the Plan to Impose a No-Fly Zone in Ukraine
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
October 2, 2025 at 4:02 PM
A discussion of just how much a possible no-fly zone in Ukraine has evolved over the last three years, and just how plausible Poland's plan is.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=diqh...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=diqh...
Trump and Zelensky had a brief meeting at the United Nations today. The most important takeaway I got from it is that the U.N. has the same taste in discount Swedish furniture that I do.
September 23, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Trump and Zelensky had a brief meeting at the United Nations today. The most important takeaway I got from it is that the U.N. has the same taste in discount Swedish furniture that I do.
Russia sent three fighters into Estonian airspace. NATO may be best off firing at them, but it is worth first thinking about what the Kremlin may be trying to do here.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVzC...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVzC...
Three Russian Fighters Just Entered Estonian Air Space. What's Putin's Plan?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
September 19, 2025 at 11:14 PM
Russia sent three fighters into Estonian airspace. NATO may be best off firing at them, but it is worth first thinking about what the Kremlin may be trying to do here.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVzC...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVzC...
With multiple Russian MiGs violating Estonian air space today, this week’s video is looking all the more timely.
youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU
youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU
How Turkey Shot Down a Russian Bomber and the Kremlin Did Nothing in Response
YouTube video by William Spaniel
youtu.be
September 19, 2025 at 4:11 PM
With multiple Russian MiGs violating Estonian air space today, this week’s video is looking all the more timely.
youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU
youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU