@garygnutter.bsky.social
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garygnutter.bsky.social
Finnish Coast Guard inspected ARCTICA (MMSI: 538011962 ) off the coast of Finland. Nothing found according to officials. Helicopter was seen hovering over anchored ship by passengers of ferry.

fyi, @auonsson.bsky.social

www.is.fi/kotimaa/art-...
Suomen viranomaisilla operaatio aluksella Suomenlahdella – Tallinnan-laivan matkustajat näkivät kaiken
Öljytankkeri oli matkalla Venäjälle.
www.is.fi
garygnutter.bsky.social
This ought to be understood well in EU. IF we let Ukraine fall - certainly many would resist occupation - But THIS is what would happen. Also people must work... All that would be huge ++ for rus war machine
garygnutter.bsky.social
I think they are probing for a suitable level of incursion/action where part of nato is for artcl.5 while some are not.

Armed shaheed could be for one-time case, but better a downed plane with follow-up small escalation and land-grab for "security concerns"
Reposted
auonsson.bsky.social
Gotland is being armed.

Polish Navy landing ship ORP Toruń (825) travelled from military port of Gdynia to Visby, Gotland SE today. Stayed Visby port only 2 hours.

Ship is moving anti-ship missile systems to Gotland.

4th similar trip last 10 days. Operation Gotland Sentry.
Reposted
thestudyofwar.bsky.social
WARNING UPDATE: The Kremlin is setting conditions to generate possibly violent protests to remove Moldovan President Maia Sandu from power following the September 28 Moldovan parliamentary elections.

Read More: isw.pub/Moldova092525
garygnutter.bsky.social
Eyes on Moldova,

If sundays election goes to commies it would be pandora's box for region and Europe as whole. A stepping stone to balkans.

www.dw.com/en/is-this-t...

Important speech
garygnutter.bsky.social
Now we have official information with time, path etc. from Estonian Def.forces:

estonianworld.com/security/est...

Does not coincide with initial note about VAINDLOO island nor exit near Naissaari.

But source is quite credible..
garygnutter.bsky.social
I would say 6 allied fighters were tracking them. Also USS Bainbridge was ~near. But there are rules prior engagement. Q is: Are NATO nations ready for escalation. RUS would try to retaliate somehow. World is different now than when Turks shot down plane.

But these will continue until such time...
garygnutter.bsky.social
Have a look, This is approximate, but verified to last until Naissaari NW of Tallinn, Thus 300/350kn track length is closest

bsky.app/profile/gary...
garygnutter.bsky.social
RUS Incursion into Estonia.
Data on ground tracks is not public. Also length of 12minutes could be approximate. But let's assume:
Here are possible ground tracks for various nominal cruising speeds. I would say 300-350kts is likely.

It's not small, nor a mistake. Articl.4 is warranted.
garygnutter.bsky.social
Heh, yeah little less, but Americans tend to like to have "keep-out" zone which is not that much. 10-15nm, even 5nm in such tight spot. Anyway - it does not make incursion allowed.

Also, USS B had able time to reach Baltics by that time if they went even 12-15knots.
garygnutter.bsky.social
USS Bainbridge departed Helsinki THU 18th, 16:20FIN => 13:20UTC so little late.

But I'm fairly sure ship could be linked to incursion, which occured 50km south, ~14-18 hours later.
garygnutter.bsky.social
Coincidentally USS Bainbridgen was on port call in Helsinki during the week. (www.hs.fi/helsinki/art...) , it was to depart THU 1100UTC. And will par-take exercises on N Baltics from 22th->

So where was it when MIG's violated airspace?
Were they "avoiding" overfly? @auonsson.bsky.social ??
Satamavierailut | Yhdysvaltain laivaston ohjushävittäjä vierailee Helsingissä
Kyseinen ohjushävittäjä oli aikanaan mukana amerikkalais­kapteenin vapauttamis­operaatiossa Somaliassa.
www.hs.fi
garygnutter.bsky.social
And I'm sorry my Swedish friends. Griben => Gripen 😱
garygnutter.bsky.social
RUS Incursion into Estonia.
Data on ground tracks is not public. Also length of 12minutes could be approximate. But let's assume:
Here are possible ground tracks for various nominal cruising speeds. I would say 300-350kts is likely.

It's not small, nor a mistake. Articl.4 is warranted.
garygnutter.bsky.social
Might work against india, but not china. Definetly against slovaks and hungary.

While EU should grow some balls, also
I think "leader of the free world" should get their act together.. or they wont be for long.
garygnutter.bsky.social
At least license plate matches to Kalingrad region:

Codes 39 and 91 for Kalingrad
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle...
garygnutter.bsky.social
- Unverif claims of extra fuel tank => Could also be due to targeting western UKR.

- And of western SIMs => Those probably also operate on UKR soil, which might be real reason.
garygnutter.bsky.social
Accident - Unintentional incursion

- Tracks do not support this => Incursions were so deep and geo-distributed that malfunctions or gps jamming cannot really be reasons.

- Programming error => They send 100's drones every night to several targets, suddenly 19 cross border?
garygnutter.bsky.social
(-) Long term, EU re-armament might be faster as this gives political leeway for defence spending.

(-) Polish resolve and support for UKR increased.
garygnutter.bsky.social
What russia gained from this?
(+) They see how western political sphere still lacks resolve. Talk of anything that would cause _any_ "costs" to russians from this operation is non-existant. EU/NATO is purely in reacting mode and waiting for next push.

(+) USA was not really interested of this.