Patrick De Haan
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Patrick De Haan
@gasbuddyguy.bsky.social
6.5K followers 530 following 1.3K posts
Head of Petroleum Analysis “America’s best-known gas price expert" "The 🐐 of gas price trackers" Mythbuster. Debunker. Fact Checker. Fair.
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PBF refinery in Torrance, CA reported flaring on Saturday due to planned maintenance.
ALERT: #GasPrices appear to be rising to $3.29/gal in #Michigan and to $3.19/gal in #Indiana today. This is a routine price cycle exacerbated by continued refinery issues.
The national average again slipped to $2.99/gal in GasBuddy's weekly data, but won't spend much time there (again) due to continued refinery snags in the Great Lakes and West Coast
MI/IN should be on the lookout for gas prices to cycle/jump today to potentially ~$3.19/gal
The national average has again (temporarily) dipped below the $3 mark and is sitting at $2.995/gal. It will likely rise again Monday back above $3 as price cycles are expected in the Great Lakes.
Latest Baker Hughes rig count shows number of oil rigs in the US fell by 6 this week to 420 rigs, down from 479 a year ago.
Cenovus in its earnings report today said its refineries ran at 99% utilization for Q3, averaging 605,300bpd throughput with an operating cost of $9.67/bbl or about 23c/gal (varies by product)
35 states back to seeing average #gasprices below $3, next up: WV, MT. Three states eternally above $4: CA, HI, WA.
National average price of gasoline holding just above the $3 mark still at $3.016/gal, prices down 14.9c from a month ago (thanks, seasonal trends!) and 10.8c lower than a year ago. #gasprices
Chicago spot gasoline values have jumped 16c/gal over the last two sessions, indicating another potential refinery/supply snag. This could lead to a gas price cycle in the Great Lakes- thinking early next week.
Relief showing up at pumps in the Great Lakes after the BP refinery fire caused #gasprices to jump two weeks ago, but now stations aggressively undercutting.
Weekly drops in average prices:
Ohio -22c/gal
Indiana -17c/gal
Michigan -14c/gal
Iowa -11c/gal
Wisconsin -8c/gal
TotalEnergies reported downstream income that surged to $1.1 billion thanks to improved refining margins in Europe. Refining is still robust!
Biodiesel is out, ULSD is back in for CVR's Wynnewood, OK refinery. It announced via earnings it will revert AWAY from renewable diesel and go back to hydrocarbon production later this year.
Oneok, PSX/KMI and now HF Sinclair all looking at boosting pipeline capacity into California/Nevada, potentially adding 150,000bpd pipeline capacity into tight markets- thinking we with these shifts that we could even see a well positioned refinery or two upgrade or enhc output!
Chevron refinery in Richmond, CA is flaring.
West Coast wholesale #gasprices are surging today by 18-35c/gal for CA/AZ/NV and 7c/gal for OR/WA. Watching for potential supply challenges or refinery snags to emerge...
For CA/AZ/NV: this may lead to either a small price rise down the road or it'll likely mean a slowdown to the drop in gas prices, which could resume down the road.
For WA/OR: this could slow the decline but should not yet stop it.
West Coast wholesale #gasprices are surging today by 18-35c/gal for CA/AZ/NV and 7c/gal for OR/WA. Watching for potential supply challenges or refinery snags to emerge...
Bullish EIA report for products with big draws in both gasoline and disty with a 2% drop in refinery utilization, a big 5.5% drop in PADD 2 thanks to BP Whiting's issues
EIA, week ending 10/24
Crude oil: -6.9M
Domestic prod: 13.644MMbpd
Cushing: +1.4M
Gasoline: -5.9M
Mogas supplied: 8.924MMbpd
Distillates: -3.4M
Refiner utilz: 88.6%
Ref inputs: 15.717MMbpd
Total exports: 11.027MMbpd
#oil #eia #gas
Michigan is *changing* its gasoline tax from 31c/gal plus 6% sales tax to simply 51c/gal. At today's prices, this is a net 7c/gal INCREASE in gasoline tax. Against a landscape of lower oil prices over the next couple years this would be a boost for road funding.
With the restart of BP's Whiting, IN refinery, spot gasoline prices are tumbling, pointing to retail #gasprices that will continue moving lower. Motorists in MI, IN, IL, WI, OH, IA, MN need not be in a hurry to fill up.
Great Lakes and Midwest states that saw gas prices surge over the last week should generally all see #gasprices drop this week with BP's Whiting, IN refinery getting back online. Sub-$3s will return.
The national average price of gasoline is the 5th cheapest (or 5th most expensive) on this date going back a decade:
Today: $3.00/gal
2024: $3.07
2023: $3.47
2022: $3.75
2021: $3.39
2020: $2.14
2019: $2.58
2018: $2.81
2017: $2.46
2016: $2.22
2015: $2.19