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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 1h

It's going to be hard for Trump to throw a tantrum about someone he recently praised as a freedom fighter who was “peacefully expressing the voices and the WILL of the Venezuelan people”, but I’m sure he’ll rise to the challenge.

The Guardian @theguardian.com · 1h

Venezuelan politician María Corina Machado wins Nobel peace prize

Leader of country’s opposition receives award after intense public and private campaign by Donald Trump

www.theguardian.com

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 18h

Centre-left (CDA, GL-PvdA, D66, SP) 63-68 seats. SP (Socialists) and CDA haven't ruled this out, but there are some serious differences to overcome. Might only need 2 more parties. 5/10 chance

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 18h

Centre-right (CDA, VVD, D66, JA21) 59-64 seats. Theoretically possible if VVD and GL-PvdA won't play – D66 haven't ruled out a deal with JA21 – but would be inherently unstable. 3/10 chance

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 18h

Centre (CDA, GL-PvdA, VVD, D66) 71-75 seats. Yesilgöz is against this, but if VVD win 15 seats or fewer, Yesilgöz won't be leader. Bringing in some small parties like Volt and CU, as coalition or constructive opposition, could get this combo over the line. 8/10 chance

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 18h

Possible coalitions (76 for a majority):
Hard right (PVV, JA21, BBB, FVD) 52 seats. Even with a few minor parties on board there's no way for this combination get to 60, never mind 76. 1/10 chance

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 18h

On current trends, it looks like nobody is strong enough to catch Wilders, but since the next 4 parties have ruled out working with him, the real question is whether they can get enough seats to form a coalition.
Wilders' message is clear: vote PVV to keep them out, even if it means more elections.

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 18h

JA21 - Joost Eerdmans
1 seat, polling 11-13, rising
Hard right
Biggest opportunity: Voters who switched to PVV last time and want to see tough migration policy, but rate competence above noisy tweeting
Biggest threat: Inexperienced and possibly too neoliberal, eg plan to reopen Groningen gas fields

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 18h

VVD - Dilan Yesilgöz
24 seats, polling 13-14, falling fast
Right-wing liberal
Biggest opportunity: Need a miracle
Biggest threat: Simmering discontent at Yesilgöz's leadership and shift to populist right is driving moderate members away and could get louder if poll ratings keep falling

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 18h

D66 - Rob Jetten
9 seats, polling 11-14, rising
Progressive liberal, left of centre
Biggest opportunity: Jetten's energetic campaign is pitched to win over disillusioned VVD, doubting GL-PvdA and homeless NSC voters
Biggest threat: Confronting all sides at once could leave them isolated

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 18h

GroenLinks-PvdA - Frans Timmermans
25 seats, polling 22-27, falling
Centre-left
Biggest opportunity: Timmermans' experience on global security, Europe and defence
Biggest threat: Struggling to articulate a coherent policy on immigration and risk being outflanked by D66 on housing

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 18h

CDA - Henri Bontenbal
5 seats, polling 23-24, rising
Centre-right
Biggest opportunity: reclaiming centrist and provincial voters who switched to NSC and BBB in 2023
Biggest threat: Bontenbal may have gone too far to the centre on climate and mortgage tax relief

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 18h

PVV – Geert Wilders
37 seats, polling 30-34, rising slightly
Far-right
Biggest opportunity: Wilders is largely avoiding TV debates to focus on social media and protests against refugee centres around the country
Biggest threat: that the protests turn violent again

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 18h

Three weeks to go to the Dutch elections on October 29. Here's a thread with a very quick run-down of the six main parties (and I'm being kind: there are around 15-18 with a chance of winning seats) and possible coalition combinations.

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 3d

Mark Rutte's party, which dominated the 2010s, is set for its worst election result for 65 years on October 29 and leader Dilan Yesilgöz's chances of being in charge at Christmas are receding fast. www.dutchnews.nl/2025/10/clou...

Clouds gather over VVD: “Who’s going to tell Dilan it’s over?” - DutchNews.nl

Members of the right-wing liberal VVD are bracing themselves for a hard landing at the general election in three weeks’ time, with polls indicating the party is on course for its worst result for 50 y...

www.dutchnews.nl

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 4d

250,000 protesters marched through the streets of Amsterdam on Sunday calling on the Dutch government to take a stronger stance against Israel.
To the consternation of finance minister Eelco Heinen, not one of them set fire to a police car. www.dutchnews.nl/2025/10/in-a...

In Amsterdam, 250,000 call on government to get tough on Israel - DutchNews.nl

An estimated 250,000 people took part in a massive protest in Amsterdam on Sunday, calling on the Dutch government to take a firmer stance against Israel and to help end the genocidal violence in Gaza...

www.dutchnews.nl

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 4d

In part two of the @dutchnewsnl.bsky.social podcast series on the the parties contesting the election, we look at the centre-right Christian Democratic Appeal and two parties that broke away from it: the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB) and New Social Contract (NSC). www.patreon.com/posts/bonus-...

Bonus episode: The main parties contesting the 2025 election (Part 2) | DutchNews

Get more from DutchNews on Patreon

www.patreon.com

Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 6d

Apologies for the late posting of this week's @dutchnewsnl.bsky.social podcast due to scheduling clashes. Plenty to talk about including the election campaign, medical evacuations from Gaza and how much capital you'll need for Karl Marx's former retreat. soundcloud.com/dutchnewsnl/...

The Wouter Koolmees Is Watching You Edition - Week 40 - 2025

The election campaign gets off to an ominous start as Amsterdam puts up billboards with an American accent and Geert Wilders goes rage-canvassing on Twitter. The government bows to pressure to allow a

soundcloud.com

Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 6d

No, I just missed putting it up for the week in between, and this week's is delayed.

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 6d

Rob Jetten's office was targeted by far-right hooligans during riots in The Hague two weeks ago, but the D66 leader says political paralysis is stoking anxiety and distrust in the system. My interview for @dutchnewsnl.bsky.social : www.dutchnews.nl/2025/10/rob-...

"The Netherlands has stood still for 15 years," says Rob Jetten - DutchNews.nl

The Liberal Democratic party D66 is set to make gains in the general election at the end of this month. Its leader Rob Jetten spoke to Dutch News about the hardening attitudes in politics, the housing...

www.dutchnews.nl

Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 9d

This is how the Dutch national press agency ANP labels photographs of snarling far-right thugs waving Nazi-era flags on its website.

We have a serious problem.

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 9d

Blog on the recent far-right riots in The Hague: "When Geert Wilders speaks, he speaks to the hooligans, and the hooligans listen and applaud."
wordsforpress.wordpress.com/2025/09/30/i...

In The Hague, arsonists debate how to contain a bush fire

Photo by Sydney Oats via Flickr The word that kept coming up in last week’s debate on the riots in The Hague was veenbrand – a peat fire. Violent clashes outside council offices and asylum seekers’…

wordsforpress.wordpress.com

Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 10d

Big "Eastern bloc dictator" vibes here.

The Steady State @steadystatevets.bsky.social · 11d

When a president brags about gold accessories as proof of “success,” it projects not leadership but authoritarian pageantry.

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 10d

A peat fire burns on hard dry ground and spreads on a raging wind. Wilders has spent 25 years hollowing out the political debate, poisoning the soil and starving it of nutrients, leaving it as dry and combustible as matchwood. wordsforpress.wordpress.com/2025/09/30/i...

In The Hague, arsonists debate how to contain a bush fire

Photo by Sydney Oats via Flickr The word that kept coming up in last week’s debate on the riots in The Hague was veenbrand – a peat fire. Violent clashes outside council offices and asylum seekers’…

wordsforpress.wordpress.com

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 10d

And because a clutch of parties have adopted this position, it's going to be unavoidable in the election debates. Which means that when other parties try to talk about housing, the discussion will end up gravitating towards immigration. Exactly the strategy that enabled Wilders to win in 2023.

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 10d

Dutch elections: how right-wing parties have radicalised. Four years ago the statement "the solution to the housing shortage is restricting migration rather than building more houses" was the preserve of the lunatic fringe. Now it's mainstream.
www.trouw.nl/politiek/het...

Het Kieskompas laat zien: de rechtse partijen worden rechtser én radicaler

Uit het nieuwe Kieskompas blijkt: voor het eerst in jaren meldt het CDA zich weer in het politieke midden. Op rechts vindt radicalisering plaats.

www.trouw.nl

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