Henry Farrell
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himself.bsky.social
Henry Farrell
@himself.bsky.social

Professor of democracy and international affairs. http://www.henryfarrell.net and newsletter at http://www.programmablemutter.com. Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy (Holt, Penguin). https://www.publishersweekly.com/9781250840554. .. more

Henry Farrell is an Irish-born political scientist at Johns Hopkins University. He previously taught at the University of Toronto and earned his PhD from Georgetown University. His research interests include trust and co-operation; e-commerce; the European Union; and institutional theory. He is an elected member of the Council on Foreign Relations. .. more

Political science 57%
Economics 15%

My favourite example (formatting rendered wonky by time) is the old advice to use LaTeX rather than word in working papers to make it look as if you're intelligent goodauthority.org/news/the-gar...
The Gary King equilibrium
“Tyler Cowen”:http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/03/good-sentences.html picks up on the ‘technical note’ in Andrew’s zombie paper. bq. We originally wrote this article in Word, ...
goodauthority.org

probably much more than you wanted - but the Campante et al. paper is likely useful in thinking through the broader problem and how journalism could respond. [recipes are different - the Bloomberg piece doesn't really talk about copyright problems or existing pre-AI weird SEO padding etc]

LLMs make it much more difficult than in the past to distinguish sincere hard effort from automated boilerplate, so that it is harder to tell a sincere boss committed to helping you work better from one who is lazy and couldn't care less about you. There are similar dynamics for other situations.

The intuition is crudely that -say, if a boss gives you a negative annual review, you will treat it differently if you think the boss spent a lot of time and sweat working on the report to make it thoughtful and constructive, than if you think the boss is just throwing boilerplate at you.

Reposted by Brian Weatherson

Completely separately, there is a very interesting Wojtowicz and DeDeo paper - arxiv.org/pdf/2407.14452 - arguing that LLMs make it harder to signal sincere willingness to cooperate across a variety of social situations, by making it cheaper to send previously costly signals.
arxiv.org

There is some interesting recent research from @filipecampante.bsky.social et al. suggesting that the market for news may resemble a separating equilibrium to some limited extent filipecampante.org/wp-content/u...
filipecampante.org

distinguish themselves from slop providers, leading to a general degradation of information. A separating equilibrium would be one in which reliable sources could send costly signals, and in which news consumers would select reliable providers, creating a market for reliable news.

If the setup means that honest types will send costly signals and bad types will not, you end up in a separating equilibrium where you can tell one kind of player from another. So in this context, a pooling equiibrium would be one where reliable sources don't have means/incentive to ...

depending on setup, the other players may send costly signals. If all types of players have incentives to send the same kind of signals, whether they are diligent or feckless, you end up in a pooling equilibrium - the signals don't have useful information that allow you to distinguish good from bad

sorry - game theoretic jargon. In signaling games, you might want to distinguish between 'types' of players - for example, are workers lazy or hard-working? Or are news-slingers unreliable or diligent? You don't know the type of other players, though the players themselves do and can communicate.

What you think the likely consequences are depends on whether you expect to see a pooling or separating equilibrium.
One of the big tidal forces of the coming years is that the baseline reliability of things you see on a screen is going to decline.

I think this has not been adequately metabolized.

This is one version, but there are a bunch of them.
NEW: AI “recipe slop” is overrunning search and social. Food creators say Google’s AI Overviews and glossy fake food pics are drowning out real, tested recipes — collapsing traffic and setting home cooks up for disaster, especially this Thanksgiving.

Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Reposted by Henry Farrell

An excellent and very clear piece on LLM's and thinking. See also Farrell et al. in Science, our piece making the point about LLM's as a form of communication rather than cognition. alisongopnik.com/Papers_Aliso...
One of the big tidal forces of the coming years is that the baseline reliability of things you see on a screen is going to decline.

I think this has not been adequately metabolized.

This is one version, but there are a bunch of them.
NEW: AI “recipe slop” is overrunning search and social. Food creators say Google’s AI Overviews and glossy fake food pics are drowning out real, tested recipes — collapsing traffic and setting home cooks up for disaster, especially this Thanksgiving.

Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
AI Slop Recipes Are Taking Over the Internet -- And Thanksgiving Dinner
Food bloggers see traffic dip as home cooks turn to AI, inspired by impossible pictures
www.bloomberg.com

[I meant to write back to say return the book when good, but no desperate hurry, and was pleased that I'd accidentally spurred your memory]

nb that the first are not films del Toro has any intention of making, unlike ATMOM, but they are films that he _ought_ have the intention of making. The one for the monsters, the other for the monstrosity of myth.

this. I would also demand his Perdido Street Station and The Course of the Heart, and Revivified David Lynch's Book of the New Sun five season miniseries.
Guillermo Del Toro's "At the Mountains of Madness."
If you were a despotic president, what movie would you force Hollywood to make? I want to see Quentin's Star Trek movie or maybe Kill Bill Vol 3.

Reposted by Henry Farrell

Guillermo Del Toro's "At the Mountains of Madness."
If you were a despotic president, what movie would you force Hollywood to make? I want to see Quentin's Star Trek movie or maybe Kill Bill Vol 3.

Reposted by Henry Farrell

Tachyon Press are having a year end sale for the rest of 2025, 30% off sitewide with the code YEAREND30 tachyonpublications.com including wonderful books by Theodora Goss, Patricia McKillip, Jane Yolen, me, Peter Beagle, Michael Swanwick, James Morrow, Nina Kiriki Hoffman, Nancy Kress, etc
Home - Tachyon Publications
Tachyon Publications, founded in 1995, is an award-winning publisher of smart science fiction, fantasy, horror, and more. We're saving the world, one good book at a time.
tachyonpublications.com

Also, while on GLK - I thought this essay was both excellent and highly disturbing - deserved more attention than it got at the time www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...
The End of Children
Birth rates are crashing around the world. Should we be worried?
www.newyorker.com

Reposted by Andrew Rudalevige

careers.insidehighered.com/job/3430267/... Come be my boss as director of the SNF Agora Institute. It is a great place, and a big opportunity to reshape debate.
Director, The Stavros Niarchos Foundation Agora Institute - Baltimore, Maryland (US) job with Johns Hopkins University | 3430267
Johns Hopkins University seeks the next director of the Stavros Niarchos Foundation (SNF) Agora Institute, an effort to address the deterioration o...
careers.insidehighered.com

I haven't read the book, but reheated Sombartism does not sound particularly delectable.

www.newyorker.com/magazine/202... On balance among New Yorker writers, I'd slightly prefer to be on the wrong side of Isaac Chotiner to the wrong side of Gideon Lewis-Kraus.
What Does “Capitalism” Really Mean, Anyway?
In a new global history, capitalism is an inescapable vibe—responsible for everything, everywhere, all at once.
www.newyorker.com

Reposted by Henry Farrell

🚨New Shepherd.com article by James Pattison article out now! 🚨

Exploring 'The best books to understand how the global order is changing' w/ Anne Applebaum, Lucia Rafanelli Henry Farrell Abe Newman and more! 🌟

Read more about his book and his picks here 👉 https://ow.ly/MMMW50XxyAS
The best books to understand how the global order is changing
James Pattison gives us his best books to understand how the global order is changing.
ow.ly

Reposted by Henry Farrell

There are only a couple of media subscriptions where every time they ask for my money I'm like "hell yes" and @theverge.com is one of them
Grateful to The Verge for publishing my essay on why large-language models are not going to achieve general intelligence nor push the scientific frontier.

www.theverge.com/ai-artificia...
Is language the same as intelligence? The AI industry desperately needs it to be
The AI boom is based on a fundamental mistake.
www.theverge.com

The work that they are doing is important.
Larger media outlets have wavered since the first Trump term, but we've remained steadfast in our categorical rejection of MAGA in all its aspects and our affirmation of liberal democracy and the principles that it rests on.

In the second Trump term, we are growing: www.gofundme.com/f/the-libera...

Reposted by Henry Farrell

Larger media outlets have wavered since the first Trump term, but we've remained steadfast in our categorical rejection of MAGA in all its aspects and our affirmation of liberal democracy and the principles that it rests on.

In the second Trump term, we are growing: www.gofundme.com/f/the-libera...

Have you read Charles Palliser's The Quincunx? Fallen into obscurity for no good reason, but in principle sounds like your kind of thing. Dickensian but with lots of twistiness.

Reposted by Henry Farrell

Bonus: Paper includes multiple tables contrasting Comm or Council's positive/panglossian assessments with expert assessments. One of paper's key points: increasing politicisation of toolbox comes with increasing gaslighting to hide this politicisation/gap btw EU rhetoric & reality of its (in)action

thank you!