Ilayda B. Onder
@ilaydaonder.bsky.social
Assistant Professor of Political Science at Texas A&M, studying political violence, civil conflict, and rebel organizations.
https://www.ilaydaonder.com/
https://www.ilaydaonder.com/
Pinned
Our latest publication with @markberlin2.bsky.social is out in @ispp-pops.bsky.social.
We examine what happens when armed groups deny responsibility for violence and find that denials can erode trust in government and shape how people feel about violence.
Read more here: doi.org/10.1111/pops...
We examine what happens when armed groups deny responsibility for violence and find that denials can erode trust in government and shape how people feel about violence.
Read more here: doi.org/10.1111/pops...
Our latest publication with @markberlin2.bsky.social is out in @ispp-pops.bsky.social.
We examine what happens when armed groups deny responsibility for violence and find that denials can erode trust in government and shape how people feel about violence.
Read more here: doi.org/10.1111/pops...
We examine what happens when armed groups deny responsibility for violence and find that denials can erode trust in government and shape how people feel about violence.
Read more here: doi.org/10.1111/pops...
October 28, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Our latest publication with @markberlin2.bsky.social is out in @ispp-pops.bsky.social.
We examine what happens when armed groups deny responsibility for violence and find that denials can erode trust in government and shape how people feel about violence.
Read more here: doi.org/10.1111/pops...
We examine what happens when armed groups deny responsibility for violence and find that denials can erode trust in government and shape how people feel about violence.
Read more here: doi.org/10.1111/pops...
Finn Klebe will be presenting our joint project that we’ve been developing over the past year. Join the panel tomorrow to hear about our dataset on defections across and co-membership among rebel and nonviolent resistance groups.
Equally excited to share two projects that we are presenting for the first time. Come join us tomorrow 11 Sep 4:00pm for new data & analysis on the impact of rebel defection & co-membership on civilian victimization in conflict (new project w/ @ilaydaonder.bsky.social). 4-papers & great discussants!
September 11, 2025 at 4:26 AM
Finn Klebe will be presenting our joint project that we’ve been developing over the past year. Join the panel tomorrow to hear about our dataset on defections across and co-membership among rebel and nonviolent resistance groups.
We’re accepting submissions for Fall 2025 until August 14.
If you’re on the market, it’s a great chance to practice your job talk with an audience!
We also welcome paper presentations.
Apply here: iu.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
If you’re on the market, it’s a great chance to practice your job talk with an audience!
We also welcome paper presentations.
Apply here: iu.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
July 22, 2025 at 1:34 AM
We’re accepting submissions for Fall 2025 until August 14.
If you’re on the market, it’s a great chance to practice your job talk with an audience!
We also welcome paper presentations.
Apply here: iu.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
If you’re on the market, it’s a great chance to practice your job talk with an audience!
We also welcome paper presentations.
Apply here: iu.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
In our new article, we show that groups that claim credit for attacks have shorter lifespans. Not because of government crackdowns, but likely from internal breakdowns.
These findings raise questions about how state threats shape terrorist behavior and whether the logic of deterrence really holds.
These findings raise questions about how state threats shape terrorist behavior and whether the logic of deterrence really holds.
Do terrorist groups that actively claim credit for their violence thrive? @ilaydaonder.bsky.social and Nazli Avdan and Aaron Hoffman explore this question in a new paper in II! www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Credit claims and the survival rates of terrorist organizations
This study investigates the relationship between terrorist credit claims and government counterterrorism efforts, focusing on the impact of claims on group survival. Using data from the Extended Da...
www.tandfonline.com
May 22, 2025 at 7:03 PM
In our new article, we show that groups that claim credit for attacks have shorter lifespans. Not because of government crackdowns, but likely from internal breakdowns.
These findings raise questions about how state threats shape terrorist behavior and whether the logic of deterrence really holds.
These findings raise questions about how state threats shape terrorist behavior and whether the logic of deterrence really holds.
One of my recent articles has now been officially assigned page numbers in Journal of Conflict Resolution.
🔍 Key finding: The spatial distribution of loyal, disloyal, and wavering rebel supporters explains who gets targeted and where.
Check it out here: doi.org/10.1177/0022...
🔍 Key finding: The spatial distribution of loyal, disloyal, and wavering rebel supporters explains who gets targeted and where.
Check it out here: doi.org/10.1177/0022...
February 25, 2025 at 3:33 AM
One of my recent articles has now been officially assigned page numbers in Journal of Conflict Resolution.
🔍 Key finding: The spatial distribution of loyal, disloyal, and wavering rebel supporters explains who gets targeted and where.
Check it out here: doi.org/10.1177/0022...
🔍 Key finding: The spatial distribution of loyal, disloyal, and wavering rebel supporters explains who gets targeted and where.
Check it out here: doi.org/10.1177/0022...
Reposted by Ilayda B. Onder
Check out this new JoGSS article on rebel fragmentation!
Using the PKK in Turkey as a case study, @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social identifies two pathways to rebel fragmentation: democratization creating divides over armed struggle and foreign military intervention empowering rival groups.
Using the PKK in Turkey as a case study, @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social identifies two pathways to rebel fragmentation: democratization creating divides over armed struggle and foreign military intervention empowering rival groups.
My first post here!
Check out my recently published and very first solo-authored article on how democratization and foreign military intervention can result in rebel fragmentation in Journal of Global Security Studies.
@polviolencepapers.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1093/jogs...
Check out my recently published and very first solo-authored article on how democratization and foreign military intervention can result in rebel fragmentation in Journal of Global Security Studies.
@polviolencepapers.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1093/jogs...
Democratization, Foreign Military Intervention, and Rebel Fragmentation in Civil War: Evidence from the PKK Insurgency in Turkey
Abstract. In this paper, by studying the fragmentation of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in 2004, I identify two distinct pathways to rebel fragmentati
doi.org
December 5, 2024 at 2:24 AM
Check out this new JoGSS article on rebel fragmentation!
Using the PKK in Turkey as a case study, @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social identifies two pathways to rebel fragmentation: democratization creating divides over armed struggle and foreign military intervention empowering rival groups.
Using the PKK in Turkey as a case study, @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social identifies two pathways to rebel fragmentation: democratization creating divides over armed struggle and foreign military intervention empowering rival groups.
Double trouble, couch snuggle…
November 24, 2024 at 3:21 AM
Double trouble, couch snuggle…
Based on overwhelming community feedback (okay, 3 people), I’ve decided that @polviolencepapers.bsky.social will also cover new publications on political violence in addition to working papers.
Tag the account when sharing your new articles to help grow this space!
Tag the account when sharing your new articles to help grow this space!
I’ve created @polviolencepapers.bsky.social to repost working papers on political violence. Since Bluesky doesn’t have a bookmark function yet, I thought we needed a dedicated space to store all those working papers often shared here.
November 17, 2024 at 8:58 PM
Based on overwhelming community feedback (okay, 3 people), I’ve decided that @polviolencepapers.bsky.social will also cover new publications on political violence in addition to working papers.
Tag the account when sharing your new articles to help grow this space!
Tag the account when sharing your new articles to help grow this space!
Resharing this for those who missed it last night. Follow @polviolencepapers.bsky.social and share if you think this could be a useful resource. I’m trying to assess interest in this initiative.
I’ve created @polviolencepapers.bsky.social to repost working papers on political violence. Since Bluesky doesn’t have a bookmark function yet, I thought we needed a dedicated space to store all those working papers often shared here.
November 17, 2024 at 5:03 PM
Resharing this for those who missed it last night. Follow @polviolencepapers.bsky.social and share if you think this could be a useful resource. I’m trying to assess interest in this initiative.
I’ve created @polviolencepapers.bsky.social to repost working papers on political violence. Since Bluesky doesn’t have a bookmark function yet, I thought we needed a dedicated space to store all those working papers often shared here.
November 17, 2024 at 4:25 AM
I’ve created @polviolencepapers.bsky.social to repost working papers on political violence. Since Bluesky doesn’t have a bookmark function yet, I thought we needed a dedicated space to store all those working papers often shared here.
Our article on the lasting impact of rebel governance on post-conflict state and citizens' perceptions of state institutions now has page numbers and is open-access in Comparative Political Studies.
Check out here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Check out here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
November 17, 2024 at 2:59 AM
Our article on the lasting impact of rebel governance on post-conflict state and citizens' perceptions of state institutions now has page numbers and is open-access in Comparative Political Studies.
Check out here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Check out here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
We are now accepting proposals for this year's Junior Scholars in Quantitative Conflict Workshop.
Please share, apply, and volunteer, if you can, to serve as a discussant.
Please share, apply, and volunteer, if you can, to serve as a discussant.
🚨We are excited to announce the 2024-25 call for papers for the Junior Scholars in Quantitative Conflict Workshop. More info below and at our site: juniorquantconflict.wixsite.com/workshop
Submissions are due Oct 31. utdallas.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
Please circulate widely -- thank you!
Submissions are due Oct 31. utdallas.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
Please circulate widely -- thank you!
October 22, 2024 at 8:39 PM
We are now accepting proposals for this year's Junior Scholars in Quantitative Conflict Workshop.
Please share, apply, and volunteer, if you can, to serve as a discussant.
Please share, apply, and volunteer, if you can, to serve as a discussant.
Excited to announce my new article, "How Civilian Loyalties Shape Rebel-Led Victimization of Rebel Constituencies," published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution! 🎉📚
doi.org/10.1177/0022...
doi.org/10.1177/0022...
How Civilian Loyalties Shape Rebel-Led Victimization of Rebel Constituencies - Ilayda B. Onder, 2024
Rebels rely on the support of their civilian constituency, but often victimize them to enforce compliance. Scholars know relatively little about how rebels stra...
doi.org
June 20, 2024 at 6:51 PM
Excited to announce my new article, "How Civilian Loyalties Shape Rebel-Led Victimization of Rebel Constituencies," published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution! 🎉📚
doi.org/10.1177/0022...
doi.org/10.1177/0022...
New publication!
What is the long-term impact of rebel governance? We use survey data from Turkey to show that individual engagement with rebel governance institutions and personal conflict experience decrease future trust in the Turkish state.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
What is the long-term impact of rebel governance? We use survey data from Turkey to show that individual engagement with rebel governance institutions and personal conflict experience decrease future trust in the Turkish state.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
The Legacies of Rebel Rule in Southeast Turkey - Cyanne E. Loyle, Ilayda B. Onder, 2023
During armed conflict civilians often inhabit areas of contested governance or areas where rebel groups, NGOs, and/or criminal syndicates vie for authority and ...
journals.sagepub.com
February 27, 2024 at 2:27 AM
New publication!
What is the long-term impact of rebel governance? We use survey data from Turkey to show that individual engagement with rebel governance institutions and personal conflict experience decrease future trust in the Turkish state.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
What is the long-term impact of rebel governance? We use survey data from Turkey to show that individual engagement with rebel governance institutions and personal conflict experience decrease future trust in the Turkish state.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
It has been official for a while but I am happy to share that I will be joining the Department of Political Science at Texas A&M University as an Assistant Professor in Fall 2024. Thanks to everyone who has offered support throughout this process!
January 2, 2024 at 4:21 PM
It has been official for a while but I am happy to share that I will be joining the Department of Political Science at Texas A&M University as an Assistant Professor in Fall 2024. Thanks to everyone who has offered support throughout this process!
Reposted by Ilayda B. Onder
Polisky: please help us spread the word about the Saltzman Institute’s postdoc, and tell your best students to apply!
www.siwps.org/programs/cal...
www.siwps.org/programs/cal...
Call for Applications: Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, Columbia University, Postdoctora...
www.siwps.org
December 4, 2023 at 11:55 PM
Polisky: please help us spread the word about the Saltzman Institute’s postdoc, and tell your best students to apply!
www.siwps.org/programs/cal...
www.siwps.org/programs/cal...
Reposted by Ilayda B. Onder
🎙️FYI @danigilbert.bsky.social also did an interview on the Politicology podcast talking about this piece and more on the hostage crisis: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/p...
October 15, 2023 at 5:40 PM
🎙️FYI @danigilbert.bsky.social also did an interview on the Politicology podcast talking about this piece and more on the hostage crisis: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/p...
My article titled "Signaling Resolve through Credit-Claiming" now has an issue number in International Interactions. I show that younger armed groups and groups that recently suffered leadership decapitation publicly claim more attacks to burnish their reputation. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Signaling Resolve through Credit-claiming
What explains when militant groups claim attacks? In this study, I argue that militant groups are more likely to claim attacks early in the organization’s lifespan and after major blows to reputati....
www.tandfonline.com
October 7, 2023 at 1:16 AM
My article titled "Signaling Resolve through Credit-Claiming" now has an issue number in International Interactions. I show that younger armed groups and groups that recently suffered leadership decapitation publicly claim more attacks to burnish their reputation. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
🚨New Publication🚨
My article is published online in Terrorism and Political Violence. Using original data on the counterinsurgency capacity of the Indian police, I show that militants switch to targeting civilians when faced with harsh counterinsurgency measures.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
My article is published online in Terrorism and Political Violence. Using original data on the counterinsurgency capacity of the Indian police, I show that militants switch to targeting civilians when faced with harsh counterinsurgency measures.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Target Hardening and Non-State Armed Groups’ Target Selection: Evidence from India
This study explores the variation in the non-state armed group (NSAGs)'s behavior concerning target selection. Scholars of transnational terrorism have investigated transnational NSAGs' target sele...
www.tandfonline.com
September 28, 2023 at 1:30 AM
🚨New Publication🚨
My article is published online in Terrorism and Political Violence. Using original data on the counterinsurgency capacity of the Indian police, I show that militants switch to targeting civilians when faced with harsh counterinsurgency measures.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
My article is published online in Terrorism and Political Violence. Using original data on the counterinsurgency capacity of the Indian police, I show that militants switch to targeting civilians when faced with harsh counterinsurgency measures.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Honestly, this website could use some enhancements. We're still missing bookmarking and the ability to save draft posts for later sharing. I feel like if folks are going to use this platform for meaningful exchange of ideas/information, bookmarks are a must.
September 24, 2023 at 11:48 PM
Honestly, this website could use some enhancements. We're still missing bookmarking and the ability to save draft posts for later sharing. I feel like if folks are going to use this platform for meaningful exchange of ideas/information, bookmarks are a must.
Reposted by Ilayda B. Onder
Today's the day! @goodauth.bsky.social is here!
Good Authority is the successor to The Monkey Cage, a site about politics + political science founded in 2007 + published at The Washington Post from 2013-22. The spirit of TMC will carry on here.
Excited to be on the team! goodauthority.org
#polisky
Good Authority is the successor to The Monkey Cage, a site about politics + political science founded in 2007 + published at The Washington Post from 2013-22. The spirit of TMC will carry on here.
Excited to be on the team! goodauthority.org
#polisky
September 21, 2023 at 12:37 AM
Today's the day! @goodauth.bsky.social is here!
Good Authority is the successor to The Monkey Cage, a site about politics + political science founded in 2007 + published at The Washington Post from 2013-22. The spirit of TMC will carry on here.
Excited to be on the team! goodauthority.org
#polisky
Good Authority is the successor to The Monkey Cage, a site about politics + political science founded in 2007 + published at The Washington Post from 2013-22. The spirit of TMC will carry on here.
Excited to be on the team! goodauthority.org
#polisky
Reposted by Ilayda B. Onder
Junior Scholars in International Security's (JSISE) call for proposals for Fall 2024 is open! Are you a junior scholar studying topics in international security? We have a space for you to receive feedback!
🗓 Deadline: September 25, 10 pm EST.
📎 Info on our website: sites.google.com/view/jsise-w...
🗓 Deadline: September 25, 10 pm EST.
📎 Info on our website: sites.google.com/view/jsise-w...
September 17, 2023 at 12:11 AM
Junior Scholars in International Security's (JSISE) call for proposals for Fall 2024 is open! Are you a junior scholar studying topics in international security? We have a space for you to receive feedback!
🗓 Deadline: September 25, 10 pm EST.
📎 Info on our website: sites.google.com/view/jsise-w...
🗓 Deadline: September 25, 10 pm EST.
📎 Info on our website: sites.google.com/view/jsise-w...
Junior Scholars in International Security's (JSISE) call for proposals for Fall 2024 is open! Are you a junior scholar studying topics in international security? We have a space for you to receive feedback!
🗓 Deadline: September 25, 10 pm EST.
📎 Info on our website: sites.google.com/view/jsise-w...
🗓 Deadline: September 25, 10 pm EST.
📎 Info on our website: sites.google.com/view/jsise-w...
September 17, 2023 at 12:11 AM
Junior Scholars in International Security's (JSISE) call for proposals for Fall 2024 is open! Are you a junior scholar studying topics in international security? We have a space for you to receive feedback!
🗓 Deadline: September 25, 10 pm EST.
📎 Info on our website: sites.google.com/view/jsise-w...
🗓 Deadline: September 25, 10 pm EST.
📎 Info on our website: sites.google.com/view/jsise-w...
My article titled "Signaling Resolve through Credit-Claiming" is now published online in International Interactions. I show that groups that are younger or have recently suffered the loss of a leader claim attacks to burnish their organizational reputation. www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Signaling Resolve through Credit-claiming
What explains when militant groups claim attacks? In this study, I argue that militant groups are more likely to claim attacks early in the organization’s lifespan and after major blows to reputati....
www.tandfonline.com
September 8, 2023 at 1:49 AM
My article titled "Signaling Resolve through Credit-Claiming" is now published online in International Interactions. I show that groups that are younger or have recently suffered the loss of a leader claim attacks to burnish their organizational reputation. www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...