Pinned
iphawk
@iphawk.bsky.social
· Jun 27
Liberation Day 2.0 is going to be electric!
The Dumbest People Possible.
Kevin Hassett on Trump's 10% cap on credit card interest rates: "Our expectations is that it won't necessarily require legislation because there will be great new Trump Cards provided voluntarily by the banks."
January 16, 2026 at 5:09 PM
The Dumbest People Possible.
I guess he would also be okay executing dudes who express sperm that doesn't lead to the birth of a baby. Seems fair.
January 16, 2026 at 4:27 PM
I guess he would also be okay executing dudes who express sperm that doesn't lead to the birth of a baby. Seems fair.
Very awesome! Thank you.
January 15, 2026 at 8:15 PM
Very awesome! Thank you.
Reposted by iphawk
Bluesky going to work over on Twitter
January 15, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Bluesky going to work over on Twitter
Yep. Desktop worked. Had to update mobile and it works now.
January 15, 2026 at 8:14 PM
Yep. Desktop worked. Had to update mobile and it works now.
January 15, 2026 at 8:09 PM
BSKY heard you! Cashtags added an hour ago.
January 15, 2026 at 8:06 PM
BSKY heard you! Cashtags added an hour ago.
I always keep them on my radar, even the ones I made money from. I tend to know the losers best and know if there is an inflection point to get back in. I have a recurring problem of being early on an idea/theme. Most of the time early = wrong and stock goes down.
January 15, 2026 at 6:29 PM
I always keep them on my radar, even the ones I made money from. I tend to know the losers best and know if there is an inflection point to get back in. I have a recurring problem of being early on an idea/theme. Most of the time early = wrong and stock goes down.
Its really F'ing hard. Something like 30% of SPY stocks actually beat SPY in 2025.
The numbers on active mf / etf managers are tragic. There is a reason we don't have the next WS legend Buffet/Simons/Munger/Lynch. Maybe Tom Lee (lol) is the guy for GenX. Everyone else is mid or sucks.
The numbers on active mf / etf managers are tragic. There is a reason we don't have the next WS legend Buffet/Simons/Munger/Lynch. Maybe Tom Lee (lol) is the guy for GenX. Everyone else is mid or sucks.
January 15, 2026 at 5:56 PM
Its really F'ing hard. Something like 30% of SPY stocks actually beat SPY in 2025.
The numbers on active mf / etf managers are tragic. There is a reason we don't have the next WS legend Buffet/Simons/Munger/Lynch. Maybe Tom Lee (lol) is the guy for GenX. Everyone else is mid or sucks.
The numbers on active mf / etf managers are tragic. There is a reason we don't have the next WS legend Buffet/Simons/Munger/Lynch. Maybe Tom Lee (lol) is the guy for GenX. Everyone else is mid or sucks.
It could be a few days or a few months. Have some longer term themes going back to July (Active Defense ETF +27% v 12.5% SPY). Not ready to exit.
My best one currently is 10.5x.
Positions down 8% are stopped out & replaced. The market is telling me I am wrong, figure out mistake, and do better.
My best one currently is 10.5x.
Positions down 8% are stopped out & replaced. The market is telling me I am wrong, figure out mistake, and do better.
January 15, 2026 at 5:43 PM
It could be a few days or a few months. Have some longer term themes going back to July (Active Defense ETF +27% v 12.5% SPY). Not ready to exit.
My best one currently is 10.5x.
Positions down 8% are stopped out & replaced. The market is telling me I am wrong, figure out mistake, and do better.
My best one currently is 10.5x.
Positions down 8% are stopped out & replaced. The market is telling me I am wrong, figure out mistake, and do better.
I enjoy The Shrub guys substack/chat.
January 15, 2026 at 5:29 PM
I enjoy The Shrub guys substack/chat.
Also don't sleep on India. Last 30 years, best returns during midterm election years. 2025 sucked due to tariff grey cloud and most of EM boosted from AI (korea/china/taiwan).
INFY numbers yesterday were pretty good.
INFY numbers yesterday were pretty good.
January 15, 2026 at 4:49 PM
Also don't sleep on India. Last 30 years, best returns during midterm election years. 2025 sucked due to tariff grey cloud and most of EM boosted from AI (korea/china/taiwan).
INFY numbers yesterday were pretty good.
INFY numbers yesterday were pretty good.
Already followed Lex and Lou who are awesome. Just followed Roqueig. Appreciate it.
January 15, 2026 at 4:45 PM
Already followed Lex and Lou who are awesome. Just followed Roqueig. Appreciate it.
You wrote about NTIP, which I had been previously buying. I think they could settle for Samsung for $50M or take them to trial and try to get $500M.
January 15, 2026 at 4:44 PM
You wrote about NTIP, which I had been previously buying. I think they could settle for Samsung for $50M or take them to trial and try to get $500M.
I wish they just made a separate Bluesky just for finance with cashtags enabled and let the community recommend new features. I would pay some $$$ per month.
January 15, 2026 at 4:42 PM
I wish they just made a separate Bluesky just for finance with cashtags enabled and let the community recommend new features. I would pay some $$$ per month.
I think Financials across the board do the AI rerate like industrials / utilities did last year. Rev per employee should skyrocket.
Stock getting close to my modeled PT. Tough decision to lock in gains 10x benchmark or keep on riding it.
Total news vacuum.
Stock getting close to my modeled PT. Tough decision to lock in gains 10x benchmark or keep on riding it.
Total news vacuum.
January 15, 2026 at 4:41 PM
I think Financials across the board do the AI rerate like industrials / utilities did last year. Rev per employee should skyrocket.
Stock getting close to my modeled PT. Tough decision to lock in gains 10x benchmark or keep on riding it.
Total news vacuum.
Stock getting close to my modeled PT. Tough decision to lock in gains 10x benchmark or keep on riding it.
Total news vacuum.
Stepstone 2X% ago. Growing AUM in their interval funds. Crazy awesome data room to evaluate future deals.
Should see massive flows / partnerships to stuff retirements with Private Equity. Wouldn't be surprised to see a mega bank or large regional bank just buy the company out.
Should see massive flows / partnerships to stuff retirements with Private Equity. Wouldn't be surprised to see a mega bank or large regional bank just buy the company out.
January 15, 2026 at 4:41 PM
Stepstone 2X% ago. Growing AUM in their interval funds. Crazy awesome data room to evaluate future deals.
Should see massive flows / partnerships to stuff retirements with Private Equity. Wouldn't be surprised to see a mega bank or large regional bank just buy the company out.
Should see massive flows / partnerships to stuff retirements with Private Equity. Wouldn't be surprised to see a mega bank or large regional bank just buy the company out.
I have an interesting work position with an "alpha sleeve" of 10% that is actively managed.
Each position is actively tracked and benchmarked against the S&P500. The goal is 2x return v IVV during the holding time period.
Not looking to pump positions. Just discuss holdings and new ideas/themes.
Each position is actively tracked and benchmarked against the S&P500. The goal is 2x return v IVV during the holding time period.
Not looking to pump positions. Just discuss holdings and new ideas/themes.
January 15, 2026 at 4:21 PM
I have an interesting work position with an "alpha sleeve" of 10% that is actively managed.
Each position is actively tracked and benchmarked against the S&P500. The goal is 2x return v IVV during the holding time period.
Not looking to pump positions. Just discuss holdings and new ideas/themes.
Each position is actively tracked and benchmarked against the S&P500. The goal is 2x return v IVV during the holding time period.
Not looking to pump positions. Just discuss holdings and new ideas/themes.
The same Chipotle bowl every day sounds like total hell.
January 15, 2026 at 4:08 PM
The same Chipotle bowl every day sounds like total hell.
I really miss Twitter active single stock name news and discussions. Its either all gone or moved to newsletters.
Stocktwits is a total waste of time. Reddit is the wild west.
Stocktwits is a total waste of time. Reddit is the wild west.
January 15, 2026 at 4:04 PM
I really miss Twitter active single stock name news and discussions. Its either all gone or moved to newsletters.
Stocktwits is a total waste of time. Reddit is the wild west.
Stocktwits is a total waste of time. Reddit is the wild west.
For the record I don't want this to happen, but this is America where we do the dumbest things possible.
Giving dummies high powered military weapons with no rules ends in a very tragic way.
Giving dummies high powered military weapons with no rules ends in a very tragic way.
January 15, 2026 at 1:36 AM
For the record I don't want this to happen, but this is America where we do the dumbest things possible.
Giving dummies high powered military weapons with no rules ends in a very tragic way.
Giving dummies high powered military weapons with no rules ends in a very tragic way.
DM up 3.5% , EM up 5.25%.
USA up 1.25%.
USA up 1.25%.
I appreciate Trump making the case for me to stay OW Developed Markets EX US and some Emerging Market.
Kind of easy.
Kind of easy.
January 15, 2026 at 1:25 AM
DM up 3.5% , EM up 5.25%.
USA up 1.25%.
USA up 1.25%.
Reposted by iphawk
January 14, 2026 at 9:17 PM
The ICE surge will end very obviously: a friendly fire mass casualty event.
Untrained ICE killing other untrained ICE.
Untrained ICE killing other untrained ICE.
January 15, 2026 at 1:21 AM
The ICE surge will end very obviously: a friendly fire mass casualty event.
Untrained ICE killing other untrained ICE.
Untrained ICE killing other untrained ICE.