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iphawk

@iphawk.bsky.social

1.2K followers 450 following 1.8K posts

Fintwit refugee

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · Jun 27

Liberation Day 2.0 is going to be electric!

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 7h

Easy own goal.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 13h

We all have vaxs up to date.

Know 2 people already down bad with the flu who needed a hospital stay.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 14h

What could go wrong?

fortune.com/2025/10/08/l...

How former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner turned a viral AI prophecy into profit, with a $1.5 billion hedge fund and outsize influence from Silicon Valley to D.C. | Fortune

Aschenbrenner is a Wall Street novice. So why have some of Silicon Valley’s biggest names trusted him to manage billions?

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 1d

When in doubt people will panic into USD.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 1d

Yep. Its all upside down. The market is the economy and confidence. 15%+ down and the economy breaks.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 1d

The Public BDC and Homebuilders are getting absolutely pasted the last few weeks.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 1d

Trump didnt write that tweet. My guess is Steve.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 1d

I guess Trump insiders needed beer money for the rager this weekend. Bought a bunch of 0dte Puts and told weird cousin Steve to tweet out China Tariff nonsense.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 2d

Pure panic. Easy out at first. Insane.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 3d

She was cooked the second she said there was not a thing she would have done differently.

The easy answer and elephant in the room was Inflation and Border.

Sometimes you just need to eat the Ls.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 3d

I hit the limit and just move to a different tool. There is no real switching friction.

The Z skill thing (and problem solving) was shocking. I am sure there are some very awesome Zs, but man I don't know what happened.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 3d

I would consider myself an early adopter & borderline power user. I worry there is a small band of old Millennials / young X'ers who navigated the Analog to Digital transition who would pay the money. Booms can't Print PDF / Zs skills are pretty mid even with growing up online.

The TAM is broken.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 3d

I agree. Gold / Dollar screaming that full stim in '26 esp parts of BBB starting to kick in.

Right now AI, doesn't pencil and other than a handful of use cases (kind of mid) solution in search of problems to fix.

Claude says in order to earn a 20% ROIC, ALL US Int users need to pay $100 per month.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 3d

Not just economy, I would argue over the entire government at all levels.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 3d

Don't fight the Fed has turned into don't fight the Big Tech AI Machine + Don't fight the Fed interest rate cut cycle.

The agreements & deals are all silly, but its impossible fighting 10+ Trillion of market cap companies with what seems like never ending CAPEX $$$.

We will all know when its over.

Reposted by iphawk

Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 4d

"Look, the President clearly has some kind of dementia" should be how Democrats begin every single comment to reporters these days.

Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 4d

Ruben Gallego on whether Trump is talking to Democrats:

“Look, the President clearly has some kind of dementia, so I think there's a he's probably talking to himself, or think he's talking to a Democrat, but I sincerely doubt that that's actually he's actually physically talking to a Democrat.“

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 4d

Anything but NO, is very very very likely Yes.

Its easy.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 4d

NOTABLE -- Pam Bondi refuses to answer direct questions about if the FBI has incriminating photos of Trump with half-naked young women, but instead deflects from them by attacking Sen. Whitehouse

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 4d

Market might be figuring out that all of the AI spend doesn't pencil right for a return on investment.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 5d

Significantly underperforming for 18+ months usually makes people ultra crazy.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 5d

A crackpot, but makes pretty good points and clearly communicates what we are all seeing.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 5d

Pretty good article on AI from Kuppy. I share similar sentiments.

pracap.com/an-ai-addend...

Last month, I chose to strip away all the hubris around AI and ask one simple question, one that oddly no one had really bothered to ask; how much revenue is needed to justify the current level of cap...

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 8d

Lock him up. 5 years.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 8d

Ian was reading our conversation yesterday.

An Active equal weight ETF strategy fading this theme would be fun.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 8d

I don't have an actionable opinion. Just something that is jumping off my screens, especially as I am looking through various Interval/Tender private strategies.

iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 9d

Last few weeks of trading. Also tricolor then First Brands.

Im worried there are a lot more brewing.