Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

LightNews

Jacob Mox

@jacobmox.bsky.social

130 followers 150 following 22 posts

Mid-majors and CBA for @herhoopstats.com Editor for @TheIXBasketball.bsky.social

Posts Media Videos Starter Packs

Reposted by Jacob Mox

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · 29d

With the 2026 WNBA lottery combinations announced — @kareemcopeland.bsky.social I believe had it first — here are the odds for each pick in the top five (assuming the process does not change from 2025)

@herhoopstats.com | @theixbasketball.bsky.social

A table of the odds of receiving each pick, by team:

Dallas: 42.0% 1st, 30.2% 2nd, 27.8% 3rd, 0% 4th, 0% 5th
Minnesota: 26.1%, 28.5%, 38.5%, 7.0%, 0%
Seattle: 16.7%, 20.8%, 33.7%, 27.7%, 1.2%
Washington: 9.7%, 13.0%, 0%, 65.4%
Chicago: 5.5%, 7.6%, 0%, 0%, 86.9%

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · 29d

History says they will draft right outside of the lottery, that would be my guess.

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · 29d

With the 2026 WNBA lottery combinations announced — @kareemcopeland.bsky.social I believe had it first — here are the odds for each pick in the top five (assuming the process does not change from 2025)

@herhoopstats.com | @theixbasketball.bsky.social

A table of the odds of receiving each pick, by team:

Dallas: 42.0% 1st, 30.2% 2nd, 27.8% 3rd, 0% 4th, 0% 5th
Minnesota: 26.1%, 28.5%, 38.5%, 7.0%, 0%
Seattle: 16.7%, 20.8%, 33.7%, 27.7%, 1.2%
Washington: 9.7%, 13.0%, 0%, 65.4%
Chicago: 5.5%, 7.6%, 0%, 0%, 86.9%

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 10

This was clearly supposed to say “whoever doesn’t get the 2 seed will be the 3 seed”, whoops

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 10

Phoenix and New York are locked into 4 and 5, respectively.

6 Seed:
- GSV clinches with a win
- IND clinches with a GSV loss

7 Seed:
- IND clinches with a GSV win
- SEA clinches with a GSV loss

8 Seed:
- SEA clinches with a GSV win
- GSV clinches with a loss

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 10

Final scenarios, no flow charts needed:

2 Seed:
- LVA clinches with a win or an Atlanta Loss
- ATL clinches with a win AND an LVA loss

Whoever doesn’t get the 2 seed will be the two seed

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 9

New playoff possibility charts, in order of simplicity

First up: Golden State

8 seed
Go 0-2 and Indiana goes 1-0

6 seed
Anything else

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 9

And Seattle

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 9

Phoenix

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 9

Las Vegas

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 9

Adding some revised charts

ATL

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 9

Also, New York is locked into the 5 seed if you missed it

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 9

Seattle

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 9

LA

8 seed
Go 2-0, Golden State 1-0

Eliminated
Anything else

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 9

Indiana have basically the inverse of GSV

6 seed
Golden State 0-2 and Indiana 1-0

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 9

New playoff possibility charts, in order of simplicity

First up: Golden State

8 seed
Go 0-2 and Indiana goes 1-0

6 seed
Anything else

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 7

And lastly, Indiana. Win a game, or LA loses one, and they’re in.

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 7

Seattle gets a little to complex to list everything out, but the short version is this:

Clinch
1. Go 1-0 OR
2. LAS loses 1+ game

Eliminated
1. Go 0-1 AND LAS go 3-0

6 Seed
1. Go 1-0 AND GSV and IND go winless

Every other outcome is either a 7 or 8 seed

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 7

For Los Angeles:

Clinch
1. Go 3-0 AND Seattle OR Indiana go winless

7 Seed
1. Go 3-0 AND Seattle AND Indiana go winless

8 Seed
1. Go 3-0 AND Seattle 0-1 AND Indiana 1-1 OR
2. Go 3-0 AND Seattle 1-0 AND Indiana 0-3

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Sep 7

Finally have some legible playoff seeding flowcharts, starting with Golden State.

6 Seed
1. Go 1-1 or better OR
2. Go 0-2 and Indiana goes 1-1

7 Seed
1. Go 0-2 and Indiana goes 0-2

8 Seed
1. Go 0-2 and Indiana goes 2-0

@theixbasketball.bsky.social | @herhoopstats.com

Reposted by Jacob Mox

The IX Basketball @theixbasketball.bsky.social · Aug 1

Confused about the WNBA revenue sharing debate? You're not alone. Luckily, @jacobmox.bsky.social has you covered with this handy explainer:

www.thenexthoops.com/wnba/everyth...

Everything to know about the WNBA revenue sharing debate - The IX Basketball

A deep dive into the points of contention as the WNBA and WNBPA debate how revenue sharing should look in the upcoming CBA.

www.thenexthoops.com

Reposted by Jacob Mox

Her Hoop Stats @herhoopstats.com · Apr 15

We've updated our #WNBA Salary Cap Sheets with all the picks from tonight as well the recent trades. Check it out for all the information you need about player salaries from the best WNBA cap team in the business: @jacobmox.bsky.social and @richardcohen.bsky.social

herhoopstats.com/salary-cap-s...

Dallas Wings WNBA Salary Cap Sheet

Dallas Wings Salary Cap Sheet and Key WNBA CBA Info from Her Hoop Stats

herhoopstats.com

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Mar 12

This story has been rattling around my head for the last 5 years and it is nice to get it out

The IX Basketball @theixbasketball.bsky.social · Mar 12

Five years ago, Drake, Rider and Princeton saw magical seasons come to an abrupt end. Our @jacobmox.bsky.social looks back on those three teams and the impact COVID-19 had on the lives of so many players and coaches who were in the middle of their best seasons ever.

Revisiting the 2019-20 season's end for three mid-major programs - The Next

How three mid-major programs navigated the 2019-20 season's abrupt cancellation due to COVID-19 in March 2020, with five years of hindsight.

www.thenexthoops.com

Reposted by Jacob Mox

The IX Basketball @theixbasketball.bsky.social · Mar 12

Five years ago, Drake, Rider and Princeton saw magical seasons come to an abrupt end. Our @jacobmox.bsky.social looks back on those three teams and the impact COVID-19 had on the lives of so many players and coaches who were in the middle of their best seasons ever.

Revisiting the 2019-20 season's end for three mid-major programs - The Next

How three mid-major programs navigated the 2019-20 season's abrupt cancellation due to COVID-19 in March 2020, with five years of hindsight.

www.thenexthoops.com

Reposted by Jacob Mox

Howard Megdal @howardmegdal.bsky.social · Feb 27

First at @forbes.com: my story on the new WNBPA partnership with Unrivaled and OneTeam has a chance to provide more than just a new revenue stream for the players. It changes the landscape anew amid current CBA talks with the #WNBA: www.forbes.com/sites/howard...

The New WNBPA Partnership With Unrivaled Changes The WNBA Landscape

The WNBPA's new partnership with Unrivaled changes the calculations of how many of the best women's basketball players earn a living.

Jacob Mox @jacobmox.bsky.social · Feb 13

There have been 15 21-rebound games entering today. UMass’s Stefanie Kulesza has 21 with 16+ minutes to play.

@thenext.bsky.social @herhoopstats.com