JamesSmithRF
@jamessmithrf.bsky.social
Research Director at the Resolution Foundation. Previous lives at the Bank of England and in the civil service. Focussed mainly on macroeconomics (mainly).
Reposted by JamesSmithRF
Kudos to @resolutionfoundation.org , they foresaw a much rosier forecast of Growth despite the productivity downgrade, and they nailed it
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
November 26, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Kudos to @resolutionfoundation.org , they foresaw a much rosier forecast of Growth despite the productivity downgrade, and they nailed it
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
Follow along live! (or read the OBR document!)
Live posting about the speech feels slightly unnecessary when all the details are out. But I'm a sucker for tradition nonetheless.
November 26, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Follow along live! (or read the OBR document!)
Reposted by JamesSmithRF
We'll stay up all night crunching Budget numbers, so you don't have to.
Join us On Thursday morning to learn what it means for the public, markets & cost of living ⤵️ buff.ly/drrsXC8
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social, @kamalahmednews.bsky.social, Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
Join us On Thursday morning to learn what it means for the public, markets & cost of living ⤵️ buff.ly/drrsXC8
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social, @kamalahmednews.bsky.social, Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
November 24, 2025 at 9:23 AM
We'll stay up all night crunching Budget numbers, so you don't have to.
Join us On Thursday morning to learn what it means for the public, markets & cost of living ⤵️ buff.ly/drrsXC8
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social, @kamalahmednews.bsky.social, Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
Join us On Thursday morning to learn what it means for the public, markets & cost of living ⤵️ buff.ly/drrsXC8
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social, @kamalahmednews.bsky.social, Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
Welcome reforms on minimum wage enforcement coming with the Budget.
Good to see this story over the weekend that the Government is doubling down on 'naming and shaming' employers who have been found to underpay the minimum wage. Our past research has shown that reputational concerns can help convince employers to play by the rules. www.thesun.co.uk/money/374030...
Rogue bosses face tougher 'naming and shaming' over minimum wage breaches
ROGUE bosses are set for more regular “naming and shaming” to ensure they pay national minimum wage workers the full amount. Businesses breaking the rules will have no hiding place in a gover…
www.thesun.co.uk
November 24, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Welcome reforms on minimum wage enforcement coming with the Budget.
Final public finances release before the Budget shows borrowing was slightly above market expectations at £17.4bn in October. Year-to-date borrowing was £116.8bn, £9.9bn above the OBR forecast. This comes too late for next week's forecast but is a key snapshot of the pub finances. Thread to follow.
November 21, 2025 at 7:16 AM
Final public finances release before the Budget shows borrowing was slightly above market expectations at £17.4bn in October. Year-to-date borrowing was £116.8bn, £9.9bn above the OBR forecast. This comes too late for next week's forecast but is a key snapshot of the pub finances. Thread to follow.
UK CPI inflation begins its long march back to 2%, falling from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October. This is a welcome decrease but the BoE says it will be a long path down and families are still struggling with the high cost of living. The Chancellor shd act at the Budget. Thread to follow...
November 19, 2025 at 7:58 AM
UK CPI inflation begins its long march back to 2%, falling from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October. This is a welcome decrease but the BoE says it will be a long path down and families are still struggling with the high cost of living. The Chancellor shd act at the Budget. Thread to follow...
Reposted by JamesSmithRF
What can we expect from the Budget?
Join us the morning after as we unpack what Autumn Budget 2025 means for the public, financial markets & cost of living
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social will discuss w/ @jamessmithrf.bsky.social @kamalahmednews.bsky.social Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
buff.ly/drrsXC8
Join us the morning after as we unpack what Autumn Budget 2025 means for the public, financial markets & cost of living
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social will discuss w/ @jamessmithrf.bsky.social @kamalahmednews.bsky.social Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
buff.ly/drrsXC8
November 16, 2025 at 5:18 PM
What can we expect from the Budget?
Join us the morning after as we unpack what Autumn Budget 2025 means for the public, financial markets & cost of living
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social will discuss w/ @jamessmithrf.bsky.social @kamalahmednews.bsky.social Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
buff.ly/drrsXC8
Join us the morning after as we unpack what Autumn Budget 2025 means for the public, financial markets & cost of living
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social will discuss w/ @jamessmithrf.bsky.social @kamalahmednews.bsky.social Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
buff.ly/drrsXC8
Disappointing UK GDP this morning showing growth of just 0.1% in Q3, slightly below BoE and market expectations (0.2%). The good news for the Chancellor is this comes to late to be included in Budget forecasts - but this underlines the growth challenge we face. Thread to follow...
November 13, 2025 at 7:17 AM
Disappointing UK GDP this morning showing growth of just 0.1% in Q3, slightly below BoE and market expectations (0.2%). The good news for the Chancellor is this comes to late to be included in Budget forecasts - but this underlines the growth challenge we face. Thread to follow...
The new BoE projections databank is a thing of beauty. Big step forward in terms of forecast transparency. 👏👏👏
www.bankofengland.co.uk
November 6, 2025 at 4:45 PM
The new BoE projections databank is a thing of beauty. Big step forward in terms of forecast transparency. 👏👏👏
Bank of England on hold at 4% on tight 5-4 vote with MPC minutes suggesting closer-than-expected decision. Big issue for today is outlook for inflation and new BoE comms. But this is also a key decision for the Chancellor ahead of the Budget. Thread on all that to follow...
November 6, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Bank of England on hold at 4% on tight 5-4 vote with MPC minutes suggesting closer-than-expected decision. Big issue for today is outlook for inflation and new BoE comms. But this is also a key decision for the Chancellor ahead of the Budget. Thread on all that to follow...
Want to know what Rachel Reeves is talking about today? We have all the Budget issues covered in our (@resfoundation.bsky.social) preview:
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
November 4, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Want to know what Rachel Reeves is talking about today? We have all the Budget issues covered in our (@resfoundation.bsky.social) preview:
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
It's me! Talking all things Budget related.
The Budget will be a pivotal moment for a Government looking to improve its mood music.
@jamessmithrf.bsky.social explains why the Chx should prioritise:
🏦 The public finances
👛 The cost of living
📃 Payslips
Read 'Black holes and consolidations' to learn more ⤵️ buff.ly/XPioKOp
@jamessmithrf.bsky.social explains why the Chx should prioritise:
🏦 The public finances
👛 The cost of living
📃 Payslips
Read 'Black holes and consolidations' to learn more ⤵️ buff.ly/XPioKOp
November 4, 2025 at 2:26 PM
It's me! Talking all things Budget related.
Disappointing UK PMI this morning with only a small bounce back after chunky fall in September. This is a key indicator for the BoE so the sliver of good news is that this probably keeps hopes of a rate cut alive for November.
October 24, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Disappointing UK PMI this morning with only a small bounce back after chunky fall in September. This is a key indicator for the BoE so the sliver of good news is that this probably keeps hopes of a rate cut alive for November.
Want to know what is going on with uprating benefits after yesterday's inflation data? @lalithatry.bsky.social has the answers:
New spotlight from me covering what the latest inflation data means for benefit uprating out now. Here’s a quick summary:
October 23, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Want to know what is going on with uprating benefits after yesterday's inflation data? @lalithatry.bsky.social has the answers:
UK CPI inflation finally surprised to the downside in September at 3.8% (4.0% expected). This is good news for mortgagors as it makes it more likely that the BoE will cut rates next month, but comes in key month for benefits uprating. Thread on all the details to follow...
October 22, 2025 at 6:22 AM
UK CPI inflation finally surprised to the downside in September at 3.8% (4.0% expected). This is good news for mortgagors as it makes it more likely that the BoE will cut rates next month, but comes in key month for benefits uprating. Thread on all the details to follow...
This morning's public finances release is the final set of meaningful number we get before the Budget. Borrowing was £20.2bn in September, close to official and market expectations BUT is running around £7.1bn above the OBR forecast year to date. Short thread to follow...
October 21, 2025 at 6:25 AM
This morning's public finances release is the final set of meaningful number we get before the Budget. Borrowing was £20.2bn in September, close to official and market expectations BUT is running around £7.1bn above the OBR forecast year to date. Short thread to follow...
This morning's data show UK GDP growth was 0.3% in the three months to August, with output expanding 0.1% on the month, in line with market expectations. Worrying thing in this release is the flatlining of the all-important service sector in July and August. A short thread on this to follow...
October 16, 2025 at 6:17 AM
This morning's data show UK GDP growth was 0.3% in the three months to August, with output expanding 0.1% on the month, in line with market expectations. Worrying thing in this release is the flatlining of the all-important service sector in July and August. A short thread on this to follow...
Great opportunity to come and help shape our work here @resfoundation.bsky.social: www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp... (although you will have to work with me....)
Research Director • Resolution Foundation
The Resolution Foundation is looking for an exceptional candidate to help lead our research team. This is an exciting opportunity to join the Foundation’s senior leadership as we seek to turn around t...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
October 15, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Great opportunity to come and help shape our work here @resfoundation.bsky.social: www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp... (although you will have to work with me....)
IMF forecasts being widely reported. In truth, not a lot of news: growth is stronger in 2025, reflecting outturns, 2026 has been revised down, partly due to tariffs, v.similar to BoE fcast changes. Expect OBR to also revise 2025 up and 2026 onwards down (although likely by more) in November.
October 14, 2025 at 7:04 PM
IMF forecasts being widely reported. In truth, not a lot of news: growth is stronger in 2025, reflecting outturns, 2026 has been revised down, partly due to tariffs, v.similar to BoE fcast changes. Expect OBR to also revise 2025 up and 2026 onwards down (although likely by more) in November.
Here at the Resolution Foundation we have Catherine Mann talking about demand weakness. Great event with Michael Saunders too: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/expla...
October 9, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Here at the Resolution Foundation we have Catherine Mann talking about demand weakness. Great event with Michael Saunders too: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/expla...
Do sign up for this event tomorrow - is great panel, with Catherine Mann and Michael Saunders, a really important topic (why families aren't spending), and all hosted by our very own Ruth Curtice. What more could you want??
🚨Keynote speech by External MPC member Dr. Catherine L. Mann🚨
Join us on Thursday to hear how the recent episode of above-target inflation and higher interest rates have affected households’ behaviour⤵️
buff.ly/m6NUN5b
Join us on Thursday to hear how the recent episode of above-target inflation and higher interest rates have affected households’ behaviour⤵️
buff.ly/m6NUN5b
October 8, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Do sign up for this event tomorrow - is great panel, with Catherine Mann and Michael Saunders, a really important topic (why families aren't spending), and all hosted by our very own Ruth Curtice. What more could you want??
Genuine sympathy with Office for National Statistics on this. What's happened here is a bog-standard HMRC recording error on VAT which the ONS have been commendably open about. On substance, it doesn't change the outlook much as low VAT receipts always looked erratic.
ONS revises down government borrowing estimates after data error on.ft.com/4h1HLGG
ONS revises down government borrowing estimates after data error
Office for National Statistics says there was an error in VAT receipts used to calculate the figures
on.ft.com
October 8, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Genuine sympathy with Office for National Statistics on this. What's happened here is a bog-standard HMRC recording error on VAT which the ONS have been commendably open about. On substance, it doesn't change the outlook much as low VAT receipts always looked erratic.
This is the quintessential read on household wealth inequality Britain - is well worth your time.
🚨 New research published today
'Before the fall' looks at what has happened to the distribution of household wealth in Britain and the impact on families.
Read it here 👉 buff.ly/Ya8kInK
'Before the fall' looks at what has happened to the distribution of household wealth in Britain and the impact on families.
Read it here 👉 buff.ly/Ya8kInK
October 8, 2025 at 8:46 AM
This is the quintessential read on household wealth inequality Britain - is well worth your time.
We are talking household wealth inequality at the Resolution Foundation with Molly Broome, Polly Toynbee, Mike Savage and our very own David Willetts. To read the research, see: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
October 8, 2025 at 8:44 AM
We are talking household wealth inequality at the Resolution Foundation with Molly Broome, Polly Toynbee, Mike Savage and our very own David Willetts. To read the research, see: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
This is good from Simon Wren-Lewis on why the country's fiscal woes are not caused by OBR forecasts, the bond market or (most improbably) the frequency of fiscal forecasts.
This weeks post: Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
The government delegating some technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.
The government delegating some technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.
Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market
I often see pieces from those on the left criticising the OBR. Here is Louise Haigh , for example, talking about the “rigid orthodoxy of t...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
October 2, 2025 at 12:30 PM
This is good from Simon Wren-Lewis on why the country's fiscal woes are not caused by OBR forecasts, the bond market or (most improbably) the frequency of fiscal forecasts.