Jay Parsons
@jayparsons.bsky.social
Rental Housing economist. Build, baby, build.
Podcast: The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons podcast
Newsletter: Rental Housing Economics
Podcast: The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons podcast
Newsletter: Rental Housing Economics
With his confirmation by the Senate today, Scott Turner becomes the FIRST U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to come into the job with actual experience producing housing supply on the private side.
... and also the 2nd former NFL player to hold the office.
... and also the 2nd former NFL player to hold the office.
February 5, 2025 at 6:09 PM
With his confirmation by the Senate today, Scott Turner becomes the FIRST U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to come into the job with actual experience producing housing supply on the private side.
... and also the 2nd former NFL player to hold the office.
... and also the 2nd former NFL player to hold the office.
On earnings call today, the CEO of EQR (one of the nation's largest apartment owners) called out L.A.'s heavy-handed approach to apartment owners as a deterrent to new housing construction.
"If you want to encourage housing production you have to send the right signals."
"If you want to encourage housing production you have to send the right signals."
February 4, 2025 at 11:38 PM
On earnings call today, the CEO of EQR (one of the nation's largest apartment owners) called out L.A.'s heavy-handed approach to apartment owners as a deterrent to new housing construction.
"If you want to encourage housing production you have to send the right signals."
"If you want to encourage housing production you have to send the right signals."
Multifamily's biggest investor event, NMHC Annual Meeting, wraps up today. Here are some takeaways:
1) Lots of short-term uncertainty due to rates, but mid/long-term bullishness with strong demand and falling supply. A 50-year peak in supply is currently pushing rents negative, but...
1) Lots of short-term uncertainty due to rates, but mid/long-term bullishness with strong demand and falling supply. A 50-year peak in supply is currently pushing rents negative, but...
January 30, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Multifamily's biggest investor event, NMHC Annual Meeting, wraps up today. Here are some takeaways:
1) Lots of short-term uncertainty due to rates, but mid/long-term bullishness with strong demand and falling supply. A 50-year peak in supply is currently pushing rents negative, but...
1) Lots of short-term uncertainty due to rates, but mid/long-term bullishness with strong demand and falling supply. A 50-year peak in supply is currently pushing rents negative, but...
Great chart from John Burns showing that more than HALF of the existing build-to-rent units were built in just the last two years.
It's a good reminder that we're still in the early innings of build-to-rent.
It's a good reminder that we're still in the early innings of build-to-rent.
January 23, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Great chart from John Burns showing that more than HALF of the existing build-to-rent units were built in just the last two years.
It's a good reminder that we're still in the early innings of build-to-rent.
It's a good reminder that we're still in the early innings of build-to-rent.
What a difference 3 months make. This NMHC survey perfectly captures the mood swing among apartment executives.
Back in October, bullishness was at a 2-year high.
Here in January, optimism has been put on hold again.
What changed? Not supply, demand, rents or the economy.
Back in October, bullishness was at a 2-year high.
Here in January, optimism has been put on hold again.
What changed? Not supply, demand, rents or the economy.
January 22, 2025 at 2:51 PM
What a difference 3 months make. This NMHC survey perfectly captures the mood swing among apartment executives.
Back in October, bullishness was at a 2-year high.
Here in January, optimism has been put on hold again.
What changed? Not supply, demand, rents or the economy.
Back in October, bullishness was at a 2-year high.
Here in January, optimism has been put on hold again.
What changed? Not supply, demand, rents or the economy.
Final numbers for 2024: Multifamily builders started 254,100 fewer units than they completed.
That's the second-biggest deficit on record, behind only 1974.
And multifamily starts in 2024 totaled lowest since 2013.
Yet another clear indicator that new apartment supply will plunge by 2026.
That's the second-biggest deficit on record, behind only 1974.
And multifamily starts in 2024 totaled lowest since 2013.
Yet another clear indicator that new apartment supply will plunge by 2026.
January 21, 2025 at 6:24 PM
Final numbers for 2024: Multifamily builders started 254,100 fewer units than they completed.
That's the second-biggest deficit on record, behind only 1974.
And multifamily starts in 2024 totaled lowest since 2013.
Yet another clear indicator that new apartment supply will plunge by 2026.
That's the second-biggest deficit on record, behind only 1974.
And multifamily starts in 2024 totaled lowest since 2013.
Yet another clear indicator that new apartment supply will plunge by 2026.
The rental housing business might be the most fragmented industry in the United States. Even the biggest owners are rounding errors in terms of market share.
No company comes close to owning even 1% of U.S. apartments or single-family rentals.
No company comes close to owning even 1% of U.S. apartments or single-family rentals.
January 16, 2025 at 4:05 PM
The rental housing business might be the most fragmented industry in the United States. Even the biggest owners are rounding errors in terms of market share.
No company comes close to owning even 1% of U.S. apartments or single-family rentals.
No company comes close to owning even 1% of U.S. apartments or single-family rentals.
For anyone concerned about junk fees and hidden costs driving up rents, try to plan/entitle/permit/build/operate a new apartment property in a large U.S. city.
January 15, 2025 at 3:22 AM
For anyone concerned about junk fees and hidden costs driving up rents, try to plan/entitle/permit/build/operate a new apartment property in a large U.S. city.
The final numbers are in, and apartment demand came in WAYYYY above anyone's expectations for 2024.
I was probably as bullish as anyone going into 2024, but not THIS bullish.
The U.S. added ~600k apartment households in 2024, and the story isn't as simple as you might think.
I was probably as bullish as anyone going into 2024, but not THIS bullish.
The U.S. added ~600k apartment households in 2024, and the story isn't as simple as you might think.
January 8, 2025 at 2:53 PM
The final numbers are in, and apartment demand came in WAYYYY above anyone's expectations for 2024.
I was probably as bullish as anyone going into 2024, but not THIS bullish.
The U.S. added ~600k apartment households in 2024, and the story isn't as simple as you might think.
I was probably as bullish as anyone going into 2024, but not THIS bullish.
The U.S. added ~600k apartment households in 2024, and the story isn't as simple as you might think.
Anything that makes housing construction more expensive makes housing costs/rents more expensive.
Let the record show that I am extremely opposed to any tariffs on Canada, to say nothing of any forcible annexation of Canada into the US. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump's Tariffs Will Make the Housing Crisis Worse
Americans need more affordable housing. Steel and lumber tariffs are not going to help.
www.bloomberg.com
January 8, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Anything that makes housing construction more expensive makes housing costs/rents more expensive.
Voucher holders are often required to wait out bureaucratic box checking before they can move into a rental. Meanwhile, the unit just sits vacant. Lose/lose.
Non-voucher holders just sign a lease and move in.
Why do voucher programs treat voucher holders like 2nd class citizens?
Non-voucher holders just sign a lease and move in.
Why do voucher programs treat voucher holders like 2nd class citizens?
January 1, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Voucher holders are often required to wait out bureaucratic box checking before they can move into a rental. Meanwhile, the unit just sits vacant. Lose/lose.
Non-voucher holders just sign a lease and move in.
Why do voucher programs treat voucher holders like 2nd class citizens?
Non-voucher holders just sign a lease and move in.
Why do voucher programs treat voucher holders like 2nd class citizens?
This is why every apartment and single-family rental investor should CHEER for a strong, healthy for-sale housing market.
The downstream impact of homebuying is massive. Rising tide boosts all ships.
Strong years for homebuyers = strong years for rental investors, too.
The downstream impact of homebuying is massive. Rising tide boosts all ships.
Strong years for homebuyers = strong years for rental investors, too.
December 31, 2024 at 5:39 PM
This is why every apartment and single-family rental investor should CHEER for a strong, healthy for-sale housing market.
The downstream impact of homebuying is massive. Rising tide boosts all ships.
Strong years for homebuyers = strong years for rental investors, too.
The downstream impact of homebuying is massive. Rising tide boosts all ships.
Strong years for homebuyers = strong years for rental investors, too.
Very simple and practical tips for renters here -- especially in high-supplied markets like Austin.
So, I went to the leasing manager in the front office with my renewal letter, told her I had seen the news about rents going down, that I had checked what the unit below me & other units of the same floorplan were going for (less than what they offered me)...etc. and they agreed to 0 pretty fast
December 31, 2024 at 4:49 PM
Very simple and practical tips for renters here -- especially in high-supplied markets like Austin.
The consensus view going into 2024 was that single-family rent growth would re-accelerate due to a slow/pricey for-sale housing market pushing more demand into rentals.
I said the opposite, and turned out to be right. No re-acceleration in 2024.
I said the opposite, and turned out to be right. No re-acceleration in 2024.
December 20, 2024 at 4:36 PM
The consensus view going into 2024 was that single-family rent growth would re-accelerate due to a slow/pricey for-sale housing market pushing more demand into rentals.
I said the opposite, and turned out to be right. No re-acceleration in 2024.
I said the opposite, and turned out to be right. No re-acceleration in 2024.
Multifamily housing starts dropped to the lowest levels in a decade, according to U.S. Census data released yesterday, further evidence that the apartment supply cooldown will be deeper than a mere return to pre-COVID norms.
December 19, 2024 at 3:00 PM
Multifamily housing starts dropped to the lowest levels in a decade, according to U.S. Census data released yesterday, further evidence that the apartment supply cooldown will be deeper than a mere return to pre-COVID norms.
Multifamily housing starts in November 2024 were the third lowest of any month since 2015 -- only higher than March 2024 (same headwinds) and April 2020 (COVID lockdowns).
December 18, 2024 at 11:24 PM
Multifamily housing starts in November 2024 were the third lowest of any month since 2015 -- only higher than March 2024 (same headwinds) and April 2020 (COVID lockdowns).
It appears the FTC has excluded apartment and SFR owners from its new "junk fee" rules announced yesterday -- instead narrowing its scope to live-event ticketing and short-term lodging.
Rental housing (application/screening fees etc.) was part of the FTC's initial scope announced last year.
Rental housing (application/screening fees etc.) was part of the FTC's initial scope announced last year.
December 18, 2024 at 2:33 PM
It appears the FTC has excluded apartment and SFR owners from its new "junk fee" rules announced yesterday -- instead narrowing its scope to live-event ticketing and short-term lodging.
Rental housing (application/screening fees etc.) was part of the FTC's initial scope announced last year.
Rental housing (application/screening fees etc.) was part of the FTC's initial scope announced last year.
Posting the same content on both Bluesky and X is kind of like having to send the same text message to two groups of friends separately b/c they don't interact with each other.
December 17, 2024 at 6:16 PM
Posting the same content on both Bluesky and X is kind of like having to send the same text message to two groups of friends separately b/c they don't interact with each other.
The free market cannot solve rental housing supply and affordability challenges on its own.
The government cannot solve rental housing supply and affordability challenges on its own.
Together, in good-faith partnership and collaboration, we can.
The government cannot solve rental housing supply and affordability challenges on its own.
Together, in good-faith partnership and collaboration, we can.
December 17, 2024 at 3:10 PM
The free market cannot solve rental housing supply and affordability challenges on its own.
The government cannot solve rental housing supply and affordability challenges on its own.
Together, in good-faith partnership and collaboration, we can.
The government cannot solve rental housing supply and affordability challenges on its own.
Together, in good-faith partnership and collaboration, we can.
Statement from Senator Tim Scott lays out two of HUD Secretrary nominee Scott Turner's priorities after meeting together:
- reduce red tape to build more housing
- double down on Opportunity Zones to build more housing
- reduce red tape to build more housing
- double down on Opportunity Zones to build more housing
December 17, 2024 at 2:02 PM
Statement from Senator Tim Scott lays out two of HUD Secretrary nominee Scott Turner's priorities after meeting together:
- reduce red tape to build more housing
- double down on Opportunity Zones to build more housing
- reduce red tape to build more housing
- double down on Opportunity Zones to build more housing
CBRE is forecasting a big inflection point for multifamily in the next 12 months.
Every major Sun Belt / Mountain market -- EXCEPT Austin and Salt Lake City -- is projected to return to positive rent growth + declining vacancy by early 2026. The two laggards take another qtr.
Every major Sun Belt / Mountain market -- EXCEPT Austin and Salt Lake City -- is projected to return to positive rent growth + declining vacancy by early 2026. The two laggards take another qtr.
December 16, 2024 at 8:40 PM
CBRE is forecasting a big inflection point for multifamily in the next 12 months.
Every major Sun Belt / Mountain market -- EXCEPT Austin and Salt Lake City -- is projected to return to positive rent growth + declining vacancy by early 2026. The two laggards take another qtr.
Every major Sun Belt / Mountain market -- EXCEPT Austin and Salt Lake City -- is projected to return to positive rent growth + declining vacancy by early 2026. The two laggards take another qtr.
This is a helpful chart (with Census data) to illustrate a big reason why home prices have been so sticky. It's not investor driven, as conspiracy theorists argue.
It's demand > supply.
We've added more homeowners than we've added for-sale homes over the last decade.
It's demand > supply.
We've added more homeowners than we've added for-sale homes over the last decade.
December 13, 2024 at 3:38 PM
This is a helpful chart (with Census data) to illustrate a big reason why home prices have been so sticky. It's not investor driven, as conspiracy theorists argue.
It's demand > supply.
We've added more homeowners than we've added for-sale homes over the last decade.
It's demand > supply.
We've added more homeowners than we've added for-sale homes over the last decade.
The big 3 rental housing topics most studied in academia, and the consensus conclusions:
1) Rent control exacerbates affordability challenges in long run.
2) New "luxury" housing improves affordability at lower end of market.
3) Inclusionary zoning reduces total new housing supply.
🧵
1) Rent control exacerbates affordability challenges in long run.
2) New "luxury" housing improves affordability at lower end of market.
3) Inclusionary zoning reduces total new housing supply.
🧵
December 12, 2024 at 2:24 PM
The big 3 rental housing topics most studied in academia, and the consensus conclusions:
1) Rent control exacerbates affordability challenges in long run.
2) New "luxury" housing improves affordability at lower end of market.
3) Inclusionary zoning reduces total new housing supply.
🧵
1) Rent control exacerbates affordability challenges in long run.
2) New "luxury" housing improves affordability at lower end of market.
3) Inclusionary zoning reduces total new housing supply.
🧵
I was once (a couple years ago) a skeptic of rental housing "filtering" -- the theory that new "luxury" apartments pull up higher-income renters from moderate-priced rentals, thereby benefitting moderate-income renters, and on down the line.
I am no longer a skeptic.
I am no longer a skeptic.
December 11, 2024 at 9:10 PM
I was once (a couple years ago) a skeptic of rental housing "filtering" -- the theory that new "luxury" apartments pull up higher-income renters from moderate-priced rentals, thereby benefitting moderate-income renters, and on down the line.
I am no longer a skeptic.
I am no longer a skeptic.
Reposted by Jay Parsons
In housing policy, Affordable Housing is a specific technical term that means “income-restricted, generally subsidized housing reserved for poor people.”
Politicians often exploit people’s ignorance of this fact by claiming they’re for Affordable Housing while blocking inexpensive apartments.
Politicians often exploit people’s ignorance of this fact by claiming they’re for Affordable Housing while blocking inexpensive apartments.
December 10, 2024 at 5:43 PM
In housing policy, Affordable Housing is a specific technical term that means “income-restricted, generally subsidized housing reserved for poor people.”
Politicians often exploit people’s ignorance of this fact by claiming they’re for Affordable Housing while blocking inexpensive apartments.
Politicians often exploit people’s ignorance of this fact by claiming they’re for Affordable Housing while blocking inexpensive apartments.