Jay Parsons
@jayparsons.bsky.social
Rental Housing economist. Build, baby, build.
Podcast: The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons podcast
Newsletter: Rental Housing Economics
Podcast: The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons podcast
Newsletter: Rental Housing Economics
On earnings call today, the CEO of EQR (one of the nation's largest apartment owners) called out L.A.'s heavy-handed approach to apartment owners as a deterrent to new housing construction.
"If you want to encourage housing production you have to send the right signals."
"If you want to encourage housing production you have to send the right signals."
February 4, 2025 at 11:38 PM
On earnings call today, the CEO of EQR (one of the nation's largest apartment owners) called out L.A.'s heavy-handed approach to apartment owners as a deterrent to new housing construction.
"If you want to encourage housing production you have to send the right signals."
"If you want to encourage housing production you have to send the right signals."
Great chart from John Burns showing that more than HALF of the existing build-to-rent units were built in just the last two years.
It's a good reminder that we're still in the early innings of build-to-rent.
It's a good reminder that we're still in the early innings of build-to-rent.
January 23, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Great chart from John Burns showing that more than HALF of the existing build-to-rent units were built in just the last two years.
It's a good reminder that we're still in the early innings of build-to-rent.
It's a good reminder that we're still in the early innings of build-to-rent.
What a difference 3 months make. This NMHC survey perfectly captures the mood swing among apartment executives.
Back in October, bullishness was at a 2-year high.
Here in January, optimism has been put on hold again.
What changed? Not supply, demand, rents or the economy.
Back in October, bullishness was at a 2-year high.
Here in January, optimism has been put on hold again.
What changed? Not supply, demand, rents or the economy.
January 22, 2025 at 2:51 PM
What a difference 3 months make. This NMHC survey perfectly captures the mood swing among apartment executives.
Back in October, bullishness was at a 2-year high.
Here in January, optimism has been put on hold again.
What changed? Not supply, demand, rents or the economy.
Back in October, bullishness was at a 2-year high.
Here in January, optimism has been put on hold again.
What changed? Not supply, demand, rents or the economy.
Final numbers for 2024: Multifamily builders started 254,100 fewer units than they completed.
That's the second-biggest deficit on record, behind only 1974.
And multifamily starts in 2024 totaled lowest since 2013.
Yet another clear indicator that new apartment supply will plunge by 2026.
That's the second-biggest deficit on record, behind only 1974.
And multifamily starts in 2024 totaled lowest since 2013.
Yet another clear indicator that new apartment supply will plunge by 2026.
January 21, 2025 at 6:24 PM
Final numbers for 2024: Multifamily builders started 254,100 fewer units than they completed.
That's the second-biggest deficit on record, behind only 1974.
And multifamily starts in 2024 totaled lowest since 2013.
Yet another clear indicator that new apartment supply will plunge by 2026.
That's the second-biggest deficit on record, behind only 1974.
And multifamily starts in 2024 totaled lowest since 2013.
Yet another clear indicator that new apartment supply will plunge by 2026.
The rental housing business might be the most fragmented industry in the United States. Even the biggest owners are rounding errors in terms of market share.
No company comes close to owning even 1% of U.S. apartments or single-family rentals.
No company comes close to owning even 1% of U.S. apartments or single-family rentals.
January 16, 2025 at 4:05 PM
The rental housing business might be the most fragmented industry in the United States. Even the biggest owners are rounding errors in terms of market share.
No company comes close to owning even 1% of U.S. apartments or single-family rentals.
No company comes close to owning even 1% of U.S. apartments or single-family rentals.
The final numbers are in, and apartment demand came in WAYYYY above anyone's expectations for 2024.
I was probably as bullish as anyone going into 2024, but not THIS bullish.
The U.S. added ~600k apartment households in 2024, and the story isn't as simple as you might think.
I was probably as bullish as anyone going into 2024, but not THIS bullish.
The U.S. added ~600k apartment households in 2024, and the story isn't as simple as you might think.
January 8, 2025 at 2:53 PM
The final numbers are in, and apartment demand came in WAYYYY above anyone's expectations for 2024.
I was probably as bullish as anyone going into 2024, but not THIS bullish.
The U.S. added ~600k apartment households in 2024, and the story isn't as simple as you might think.
I was probably as bullish as anyone going into 2024, but not THIS bullish.
The U.S. added ~600k apartment households in 2024, and the story isn't as simple as you might think.
Voucher holders are often required to wait out bureaucratic box checking before they can move into a rental. Meanwhile, the unit just sits vacant. Lose/lose.
Non-voucher holders just sign a lease and move in.
Why do voucher programs treat voucher holders like 2nd class citizens?
Non-voucher holders just sign a lease and move in.
Why do voucher programs treat voucher holders like 2nd class citizens?
January 1, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Voucher holders are often required to wait out bureaucratic box checking before they can move into a rental. Meanwhile, the unit just sits vacant. Lose/lose.
Non-voucher holders just sign a lease and move in.
Why do voucher programs treat voucher holders like 2nd class citizens?
Non-voucher holders just sign a lease and move in.
Why do voucher programs treat voucher holders like 2nd class citizens?
This is why every apartment and single-family rental investor should CHEER for a strong, healthy for-sale housing market.
The downstream impact of homebuying is massive. Rising tide boosts all ships.
Strong years for homebuyers = strong years for rental investors, too.
The downstream impact of homebuying is massive. Rising tide boosts all ships.
Strong years for homebuyers = strong years for rental investors, too.
December 31, 2024 at 5:39 PM
This is why every apartment and single-family rental investor should CHEER for a strong, healthy for-sale housing market.
The downstream impact of homebuying is massive. Rising tide boosts all ships.
Strong years for homebuyers = strong years for rental investors, too.
The downstream impact of homebuying is massive. Rising tide boosts all ships.
Strong years for homebuyers = strong years for rental investors, too.
The consensus view going into 2024 was that single-family rent growth would re-accelerate due to a slow/pricey for-sale housing market pushing more demand into rentals.
I said the opposite, and turned out to be right. No re-acceleration in 2024.
I said the opposite, and turned out to be right. No re-acceleration in 2024.
December 20, 2024 at 4:36 PM
The consensus view going into 2024 was that single-family rent growth would re-accelerate due to a slow/pricey for-sale housing market pushing more demand into rentals.
I said the opposite, and turned out to be right. No re-acceleration in 2024.
I said the opposite, and turned out to be right. No re-acceleration in 2024.
Multifamily housing starts dropped to the lowest levels in a decade, according to U.S. Census data released yesterday, further evidence that the apartment supply cooldown will be deeper than a mere return to pre-COVID norms.
December 19, 2024 at 3:00 PM
Multifamily housing starts dropped to the lowest levels in a decade, according to U.S. Census data released yesterday, further evidence that the apartment supply cooldown will be deeper than a mere return to pre-COVID norms.
Statement from Senator Tim Scott lays out two of HUD Secretrary nominee Scott Turner's priorities after meeting together:
- reduce red tape to build more housing
- double down on Opportunity Zones to build more housing
- reduce red tape to build more housing
- double down on Opportunity Zones to build more housing
December 17, 2024 at 2:02 PM
Statement from Senator Tim Scott lays out two of HUD Secretrary nominee Scott Turner's priorities after meeting together:
- reduce red tape to build more housing
- double down on Opportunity Zones to build more housing
- reduce red tape to build more housing
- double down on Opportunity Zones to build more housing
CBRE is forecasting a big inflection point for multifamily in the next 12 months.
Every major Sun Belt / Mountain market -- EXCEPT Austin and Salt Lake City -- is projected to return to positive rent growth + declining vacancy by early 2026. The two laggards take another qtr.
Every major Sun Belt / Mountain market -- EXCEPT Austin and Salt Lake City -- is projected to return to positive rent growth + declining vacancy by early 2026. The two laggards take another qtr.
December 16, 2024 at 8:40 PM
CBRE is forecasting a big inflection point for multifamily in the next 12 months.
Every major Sun Belt / Mountain market -- EXCEPT Austin and Salt Lake City -- is projected to return to positive rent growth + declining vacancy by early 2026. The two laggards take another qtr.
Every major Sun Belt / Mountain market -- EXCEPT Austin and Salt Lake City -- is projected to return to positive rent growth + declining vacancy by early 2026. The two laggards take another qtr.
This is a helpful chart (with Census data) to illustrate a big reason why home prices have been so sticky. It's not investor driven, as conspiracy theorists argue.
It's demand > supply.
We've added more homeowners than we've added for-sale homes over the last decade.
It's demand > supply.
We've added more homeowners than we've added for-sale homes over the last decade.
December 13, 2024 at 3:38 PM
This is a helpful chart (with Census data) to illustrate a big reason why home prices have been so sticky. It's not investor driven, as conspiracy theorists argue.
It's demand > supply.
We've added more homeowners than we've added for-sale homes over the last decade.
It's demand > supply.
We've added more homeowners than we've added for-sale homes over the last decade.
We've added more homeowners than we added for-sale homes over the last decade. More demand than supply = higher prices.
December 13, 2024 at 3:14 PM
We've added more homeowners than we added for-sale homes over the last decade. More demand than supply = higher prices.
I was once (a couple years ago) a skeptic of rental housing "filtering" -- the theory that new "luxury" apartments pull up higher-income renters from moderate-priced rentals, thereby benefitting moderate-income renters, and on down the line.
I am no longer a skeptic.
I am no longer a skeptic.
December 11, 2024 at 9:10 PM
I was once (a couple years ago) a skeptic of rental housing "filtering" -- the theory that new "luxury" apartments pull up higher-income renters from moderate-priced rentals, thereby benefitting moderate-income renters, and on down the line.
I am no longer a skeptic.
I am no longer a skeptic.
If Atlas Van Lines is to believed, it took until 2024 for people to realize Texas is hot and that a 50% discount in housing prices/rents relative to a typical coastal market isn't enough.
December 10, 2024 at 10:47 PM
If Atlas Van Lines is to believed, it took until 2024 for people to realize Texas is hot and that a 50% discount in housing prices/rents relative to a typical coastal market isn't enough.
This statement -- by a Moody's economist!!! (sheesh) -- in today's WSJ reflects a common misunderstanding of the build-to-rent housing market.
Anyone listening to builders knows that BTR is generally net additive supply -- not supply "being diverted" from for-sale housing.
December 10, 2024 at 1:50 PM
This statement -- by a Moody's economist!!! (sheesh) -- in today's WSJ reflects a common misunderstanding of the build-to-rent housing market.
Anyone listening to builders knows that BTR is generally net additive supply -- not supply "being diverted" from for-sale housing.
The average age of an American rental unit? 44 years old! Oldest in history.
Adds up to $51.5 BILLION in deferred costs to repair America's existing rental units.
Great nugget from @harvard-jchs.bsky.social 2024 report.
Adds up to $51.5 BILLION in deferred costs to repair America's existing rental units.
Great nugget from @harvard-jchs.bsky.social 2024 report.
December 9, 2024 at 9:26 PM
The average age of an American rental unit? 44 years old! Oldest in history.
Adds up to $51.5 BILLION in deferred costs to repair America's existing rental units.
Great nugget from @harvard-jchs.bsky.social 2024 report.
Adds up to $51.5 BILLION in deferred costs to repair America's existing rental units.
Great nugget from @harvard-jchs.bsky.social 2024 report.
In the Texas vs. SoCal debates, the fanboys and haters both tend to get it wrong. Over the long haul, the different headwinds and tailwinds balance out.
From this week's podcast:
From this week's podcast:
December 7, 2024 at 6:00 PM
In the Texas vs. SoCal debates, the fanboys and haters both tend to get it wrong. Over the long haul, the different headwinds and tailwinds balance out.
From this week's podcast:
From this week's podcast:
On "The Rent Roll" podcast this week, I talked with Waterford co-founder John Drachman, aka "Dr. Doom," about the differences in investing in California vs Texas (he's a believer in both) and on workforce/attainable housing in particular. I think he's right on the emerging need/opportunity.
December 5, 2024 at 4:48 PM
On "The Rent Roll" podcast this week, I talked with Waterford co-founder John Drachman, aka "Dr. Doom," about the differences in investing in California vs Texas (he's a believer in both) and on workforce/attainable housing in particular. I think he's right on the emerging need/opportunity.
Who had Detroit on their bingo card for No. 1 market for apartment rent growth?
No surprise that the top 10 includes only markets with little-to-moderate supply growth.
No surprise that the top 10 includes only markets with little-to-moderate supply growth.
December 5, 2024 at 3:13 PM
Who had Detroit on their bingo card for No. 1 market for apartment rent growth?
No surprise that the top 10 includes only markets with little-to-moderate supply growth.
No surprise that the top 10 includes only markets with little-to-moderate supply growth.
Texas led the nation in apartment demand over the last 12 months. And yet rents fell in Texas more than most of the country...
I wonder why. 🤔
j/k. It's obvious to everyone but science deniers:
SUPPLY. Texas is building A LOT.
I wonder why. 🤔
j/k. It's obvious to everyone but science deniers:
SUPPLY. Texas is building A LOT.
December 4, 2024 at 4:06 PM
Texas led the nation in apartment demand over the last 12 months. And yet rents fell in Texas more than most of the country...
I wonder why. 🤔
j/k. It's obvious to everyone but science deniers:
SUPPLY. Texas is building A LOT.
I wonder why. 🤔
j/k. It's obvious to everyone but science deniers:
SUPPLY. Texas is building A LOT.
The discount to rent-vs-buy remains stuck at the highest level in decades. And John Burns Research & Consulting thinks that wide margin will linger for at least the next several years.
December 3, 2024 at 6:38 PM
The discount to rent-vs-buy remains stuck at the highest level in decades. And John Burns Research & Consulting thinks that wide margin will linger for at least the next several years.
Good read on Greystar's dive into modular apartment construction. As article notes: Modular only works in specific situations (& close to factories), so it's probably not "the next big thing," but it can be effective way to build moderately cheaper and therefore deliver moderately cheaper rents.
December 2, 2024 at 5:44 PM
Good read on Greystar's dive into modular apartment construction. As article notes: Modular only works in specific situations (& close to factories), so it's probably not "the next big thing," but it can be effective way to build moderately cheaper and therefore deliver moderately cheaper rents.
Multifamily construction jobs surged from 2021-23 as rent growth led to a construction boomed. But it's been flat-ish in recent months as more units complete than start -- meaning it's harder for construction workers wrapping up projects to find the next gig.
December 2, 2024 at 3:32 PM
Multifamily construction jobs surged from 2021-23 as rent growth led to a construction boomed. But it's been flat-ish in recent months as more units complete than start -- meaning it's harder for construction workers wrapping up projects to find the next gig.